Hurricane Evacuation for the Houston-Galveston Area
Presented by William E. King
www.weking.net
Mississippi Coast after Katrina Mississippi Coast after Katrina Mississippi Coast after Katrina Mississippi Coast after Katrina Hurricane Carla September 5-11, 1961
A large, slow-moving storm that made landfall near Port Lavaca
Sustained winds of 150 mph (Category 4) – Gusts to 175mph
Maximum storm surge of 22 feet (Matagorda Bay) 14.8 feet (Houston Ship Channel)
Maximum rainfall recorded - 16.49 inches (Galveston)
34 Deaths in Texas Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Houston-Galveston Study Area Mean Sea Level Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 0100 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 4.5 Feet Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 0500 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 8.5 Feet Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 1000 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 12.8 Feet Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 1500 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 15.8 Feet Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly Category 5 MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 19.0 Feet Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League City
Alvin Texas City
Houston-Galveston Study Area Galveston Mean Sea Level Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League City
Alvin Texas City
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 0100 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Galveston Surge: 4.8 Feet Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League City
Alvin Texas City
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 0500 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Galveston Surge: 10.6 Feet Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League City
Alvin Texas City
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 1000 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Galveston Surge: 17.9 Feet Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League City
Alvin Texas City
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 1500 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Galveston Surge: 22.4 Feet HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte Baytown
Bacliff
Houston-Galveston Study Area Mean Sea Level HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 0100 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 4.8 Feet HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 0500 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 10.6 Feet HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 1000 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 17.9 Feet HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly 9/11 at 1500 CDT MEOW NW at 8 MPH Surge: 22.4 Feet Hurricane Katrina August 26, 2005 (Friday) – 1PM Category 2 (100 mph) Hurricane Katrina August 26, 2005 (Friday) – 11PM Category 2 (105 mph) Hurricane Katrina August 27, 2005 (Saturday) – 10AM Category 3 (115 mph) Hurricane Katrina August 27, 2005 (Saturday) – 10PM Category 3 (115 mph) – 7mph Hurricane Katrina August 28, 2005 (Sunday) – 7AM Category 5 (165 mph) – 12mph Hurricane Katrina August 28, 2005 (Sunday) – 10AM Category 5 (165 mph) – New Orleans calls evacuation Hurricane Katrina August 28, 2005 (Sunday) – 6PM Category 5 (165 mph) Tropical Force Winds hit New Orleans less than 8 hours after evacuation called Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005 Hurricanes since 1900 Within 120 NM of Houston Comparison of CAT 3-5 Storms
1985-1994 1995-2004 http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/Hurricanemaps/Galveston StudyAreaMap.pdf Harris County Surge Zones EVACUATION STATISTICS FOR CATEGORY 4-5 HURRICANE
Total Population of 4,000,000 Affected Area Number of Persons who 800,000-1,000,000 MUST Evacuate
Number of Person who ????? Say 2,000,000 PROBABLY Evacuate
Number of vehicles 500,000-1,000,000 involved in evacuation http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/Hurricanemaps/Galveston StudyAreaMap.pdf Major Evacuation Choke Points
# of Lanes SH59 2 SH290 1 I-45 2 I-10 2
Total 7 Basic Evacuation Math
Est. Evacuation Population 1.5 MM Est. Evacuation Vehicles 750,000 Vehicles per Lane per hour 2,000 Total Vehicles per hours 14,000 Time to clear evacuation 53 hours vehicles Task Forces’ Major Recommendations
• Command and Control – Unified regional approach – Planning at COGs
• Fueling – Utilize industry infrastructure – Fuel Desk at State EOC
• Special Needs – Definition – “Anyone who cannot evacuation themselves.” – Statewide database, web based, maintained locally – State responsibility to develop sheltering plan
• Traffic Management – Incident management –Aid stations – Traffic Management Plan Traffic Plan?
• Directed Evacuation
• Contraflow
• DEM Website http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know when/if you need to evacuate
– What is your risk?
• Are you in the storm surge zone (which category)?
• Does wind pose a risk to your home? At what level?
• Are you susceptible to upland flooding? 100-year flood plain 100yr Rainfall Possible peak gusts from a cat 4 on worst case track for Rita Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know when/if you need to evacuate
– Other factors • No utilities • Special medical needs • Convenience evacuation • Consider after storm evacuation Forecast Uncertainty Rita 24 hours before landfall Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know where you are going to go
– Friends or relatives are best
– Farther is better; west is better
– Hotels will be booked for hundreds of miles inland
– Shelters
– www.OneStorm.org – Personal evacuation plan Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Familiarize yourself with latest traffic management plan
• http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/pages/index.htm Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know what you are going to take with you and where it is
– Computer hard drives – Photographs, keepsakes – Records (birth certificates, marriage licenses, SS card) – Financial records – Prescriptions (keep extra refill on hand) – Insurance policies – Medical records – Cash (ATM on national institution) Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know how to get hold of everyone going with you
• Know what you are going to do with pets
• Get weather update at each new advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Be Prepared for a long time in your vehicle – Plenty of water & food – Cooler with ice (freeze packs) – Pets’ needs – Medicines – Detailed Map (Computer with mapping program, DC adapter) – Cell phone (extra battery) • Make sure your vehicle is prepared for trip – Keep gas tank topped off – Oil, coolant levels, fan belts, brakes Rita on Thursday at 1AM CAT 5 – 175mph – 28 ft Surge We Cannot Allow This to Happen Here We Cannot Allow This to Happen Here . . . Again
137 Evacuation Deaths
“I watched my mother die in the rear view mirror” www.weking.net