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Proposed New Large Network Asset Adelaide Central Region South Australia

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Proposed New Large Network Asset Adelaide Central Region South Australia PROPOSED NEW LARGE NETWORK ASSET ADELAIDE CENTRAL REGION SOUTH AUSTRALIA APPLICATION NOTICE ElectraNet Pty Ltd (ABN 41 094 482 416) Version 1.2 10 January 2008 COPYRIGHT © ElectraNet - All Rights Reserved This document is protected by copyright vested in ElectraNet. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form without limitation unless prior written permission is obtained from ElectraNet. Important Information and Disclaimer This application notice has been prepared for the purposes of clause 5.6.6 of the National Electricity Rules. It may be used by Registered Participants and interested parties only for the purposes of the consultation process under that clause. This application notice should not be used or relied on for any other purposes. This application notice will be superseded by a final report which is to be prepared after the consultation process is complete. The contents of the final report may differ from the contents of this application notice. This application notice contains analysis based on estimates prepared by, and assumptions made by, ElectraNet and ETSA Utilities. The document has been prepared using information, including information as to costs, provided by a number of third parties. ElectraNet and ETSA Utilities can not verify the accuracy or reliability of information provided to it by third parties. The application notice contains the results of financial modelling and economic analysis undertaken by ElectraNet and ETSA Utilities. It contains assumptions regarding, among other things, economic growth and load forecasts that may or may not prove to be correct. It is based on estimates of costs for options which are modelled rather than fully developed, and is based on current estimates of costs which may change over time. The costs estimates used to evaluate the options described in this application notice are estimates only based on information currently available to ElectraNet and ETSA Utilities and should not be taken as necessarily reflecting the actual costs of later implementing an option. While care was taken in preparation of the information in this application notice, and it is provided in good faith, neither ElectraNet nor ETSA Utilities warrant the accuracy of the contents of this application notice, and so far as the law allows accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage that may be incurred by any person acting in reliance on this application notice or assumptions drawn from it. 10/1/2008 Version 1.2 - APPLICATION NOTICE – Transmission network limitations, Adelaide Central region, South Australia Page 2 of 61 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................4 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................6 2. BACKGROUND: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SYSTEM .........................................................................8 2.1 GEOGRAPHIC AREA .............................................................................................................................8 2.2 EXISTING SUPPLY ARRANGEMENTS ....................................................................................................9 2.3 COMMITTED NETWORK DEVELOPMENTS ..........................................................................................10 2.4 EXISTING AND COMMITTED GENERATION FACILITIES AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT ..................10 3 BACKGROUND: ELECTRICITY DEMAND .......................................................................................12 3.1 OVERVIEW .........................................................................................................................................12 3.2 LOAD FORECAST ................................................................................................................................12 3.3 PATTERN OF USE ...............................................................................................................................13 4 ADELAIDE CENTRAL SERVICE OBLIGATIONS ............................................................................14 4.1 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY RULES ........................................................................................................14 4.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CODE ................................................................14 5 PROJECTED NETWORK LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................16 6 OPTIONS CONSIDERED ......................................................................................................................17 6.1 NON -NETWORK OPTIONS ...................................................................................................................17 6.2 TRANSMISSION NETWORK OPTIONS .................................................................................................17 6.2.1 TRANSMISSION SUBSTATION SITE SELECTION ..................................................................................17 6.2.2 TRANSMISSION SUBSTATION – INITIAL & ANTICIPATED ULTIMATE COMPOSITION .............................19 6.2.3 TRANSMISSION CONNECTION OPTIONS .............................................................................................23 6.2.3.1 OPTION 1 – “TIPS – DIRECT (CABLE )” .........................................................................................26 6.2.3.2 OPTION 1A – “TIPS – DIRECT (OVERHEAD )” .............................................................................31 6.2.3.3 OPTION 2 – “TIPS, KILBURN BY -PASS ”........................................................................................35 6.3 DISTRIBUTION CONNECTION OPTIONS ...............................................................................................38 7 SCENARIOS CONSIDERED .................................................................................................................39 7.1 CONTEXT FOR EVALUATION OF OPTIONS .........................................................................................39 7.2 ASSUMED MARKET DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS ..............................................................................39 7.2.1 EXISTING NETWORK AND FUTURE TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT .................................................39 7.2.2 VARIATIONS IN DEMAND GROWTH ....................................................................................................39 7.2.3 EXISTING AND COMMITTED GENERATORS AND DEMAND SIDE DEVELOPMENTS ............................39 7.2.4 POTENTIAL NEW GENERATION .........................................................................................................40 8 FORMAT AND INPUTS TO ANALYSIS ..............................................................................................41 8.1 REGULATORY TEST REQUIREMENTS ................................................................................................41 8.2 INPUTS TO ANALYSIS .........................................................................................................................41 8.3 COST OF NETWORK AUGMENTATIONS .............................................................................................41 8.4 OTHER INPUTS TO ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................41 9 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .........................................................................................................................43 9.1 INPUTS TO ANALYSIS .........................................................................................................................43 9.2 INTER -NETWORK IMPACT ...................................................................................................................45 11 RECOMMENDATION .............................................................................................................................47 12 CONSULTATION ....................................................................................................................................48 13 GLOSSARY ..............................................................................................................................................49 10/1/2008 Version 1.2 - APPLICATION NOTICE – Transmission network limitations, Adelaide Central region, South Australia Page 3 of 61 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Discussion ElectraNet’s transmission service responsibilities in Adelaide’s central business district are soon to be significantly affected by increased reliability and security of supply obligations. Those revised obligations are contained in the July 2008 edition of the South Australian Electricity Transmission Code (ETC) that is issued by the Essential Services Commission of South Australia (ESCOSA) on a five-yearly basis. In those revised ETC standards, that will take effect from 1 st July 2008, ESCOSA defines a new region that specifically and intentionally targets the main business and commercial centre of Adelaide. This region is assigned a higher level of supply reliability and security than was previously afforded it in order to better-reflect its commercial and business significance to the State. The new region has been named ‘Adelaide Central’, and has been defined as “that area of Adelaide which is located east of West Terrace, north of South Terrace, west of East Terrace, and south of the River Torrens”. It is referred
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