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2016 South Australian Transmission Annual Planning Report June 2016

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2016 South Australian Transmission Annual Planning Report June 2016 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT June 2016 South Australian Transmission Annual Planning Report June 2016 Copyright and Disclaimer The purpose of this document is to provide information about ElectraNet's assessment of the transmission system’s likely capacity to meet demand in South Australia over the next ten years. It also provides information about ElectraNet’s intended plans for augmentation of the transmission network. This document is not to be used by any party for other purposes, such as making decisions to invest in further generation, transmission or distribution capacity. This document has been prepared using information provided by, and reports prepared by, a number of third parties. Anyone proposing to use the information in this document should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information in this document, and the reports and other information relied on by ElectraNet in preparing it. This document contains certain predictions, estimates and statements that reflect various assumptions concerning, amongst other things, economic growth scenarios, demand forecasts and developments within the National Electricity Market. These assumptions may or may not prove to be accurate. The document also contains statements about ElectraNet’s future plans. Those plans may change from time to time and should be confirmed with ElectraNet before any decision is made or action is taken based on this document. ElectraNet makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability for particular purposes of the information contained within this document. ElectraNet and its employees, agents and consultants shall have no liability (including liability to any person by reason of negligence or negligent misstatement) for any statements, opinions, information or matter expressed or implied arising out of, contained in, or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this document, except in so far as liability under any statute cannot be excluded. Copyright in this material is owned by or licensed to ElectraNet. Permission to publish, modify, commercialise or alter this material must be sought directly from ElectraNet. Reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure that the information contained in this report is accurate at the time of writing. However, ElectraNet gives no warranty and accepts no liability for any loss or damage incurred in reliance on this information. Page 2 of 130 South Australian Transmission Annual Planning Report June 2016 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 10 ELECTRANET'S ROLE IN SUPPLYING ELECTRICITY .................................................................... 10 NETWORK PLANNING APPROACH AND REPORTING ................................................................... 10 HOW DOES THIS REPORT DIFFER FROM THE 2015 TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT? ............................................................................................................................. 12 TRANSMISSION PLANNING RESPONSIBILITIES AND RULE REQUIREMENTS ................................... 12 2. THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN TRANSMISSION SYSTEM .............................................. 14 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................ 14 RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION ........................................................................................ 16 RANGE OF SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DEMANDS .............................................................................. 17 INTERCONNECTOR TRANSFER CAPABILITY .............................................................................. 18 NORTHERN POWER STATION CLOSURE .................................................................................. 18 3. AN EMERGING CHALLENGE – INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ............ 19 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 19 HOW WILL RISING RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION IMPACT ON THE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM? . 21 Voltage control in the north of South Australia ................................................................... 22 Frequency control following separation of South Australia from the NEM ......................... 22 Additional interconnector capacity ...................................................................................... 24 Grid connected energy storage .......................................................................................... 24 Reduced minimum fault currents (system strength) ........................................................... 25 4. NATIONAL TRANSMISSION NETWORK DEVELOPMENTS AND REVIEW OF SOUTH AUSTRALIAN NETWORK CONSTRAINTS ............................................................................. 26 NETWORK LIMITATIONS IDENTIFIED IN THE NTNDP ................................................................. 27 TRANSMISSION NETWORK CONSTRAINTS ................................................................................ 28 NETWORK MARKET BENEFIT PROJECTS .................................................................................. 34 FUTURE NETWORK CONGESTION ............................................................................................ 37 5. SUMMER (2015–16) DEMAND REVIEW AND FORECASTS ....................................... 39 SUMMER DEMAND REVIEW ..................................................................................................... 39 Connection point review ..................................................................................................... 42 DEMAND FORECAST .............................................................................................................. 42 Review of 2015 National Electricity Forecasting Report .................................................... 43 Connection point forecasts and reconciliation .................................................................... 44 6. CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................ 45 CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES FOR GENERATORS ................................................................... 45 CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES FOR CUSTOMERS ..................................................................... 47 SUMMARY OF CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES ........................................................................... 48 Page 3 of 130 South Australian Transmission Annual Planning Report June 2016 PROPOSED NEW CONNECTION POINTS ................................................................................... 50 CURRENT AND POTENTIAL TRANSMISSION CONNECTION HUBS ................................................. 50 7. TRANSMISSION NETWORK DEVELOPMENTS .......................................................... 52 COMPLETED, COMMITTED AND PENDING PROJECTS ................................................................. 52 Recently completed projects .............................................................................................. 52 Committed projects ............................................................................................................. 54 7.1.2.1 Heywood interconnector upgrade ...................................................................................... 56 7.1.2.2 Install a second 25 MVA 132/33 kV transformer at Dalrymple Substation ........................ 58 7.1.2.3 Para SVC secondary systems replacement ....................................................................... 58 7.1.2.4 Tailem Bend Substation upgrade ....................................................................................... 59 Pending projects ................................................................................................................. 59 TRANSMISSION NETWORK DEVELOPMENT PLANNING ............................................................... 59 Planning scenarios ............................................................................................................. 60 Planning scenario analysis outcomes ................................................................................ 64 Base scenario – transmission network developments ....................................................... 64 7.2.3.1 Uprate Upper South East 275 kV lines ............................................................................... 64 7.2.3.2 Uprate Riverland 132 kV lines ............................................................................................ 65 7.2.3.3 Uprate the Waterloo East to Robertstown 132 kV line ....................................................... 65 7.2.3.4 Dynamic voltage control in northern South Australia ......................................................... 66 7.2.3.5 Gawler East new connection point ..................................................................................... 67 7.2.3.6 Install one additional 275 kV switched reactor in the Mid North......................................... 68 SA Mining Growth scenario – transmission network developments .................................. 69 7.2.4.1 Lower Eyre Peninsula major reinforcement ....................................................................... 69 SA renewable generation expansion scenario – transmission network developments ..... 71 7.2.5.1 Apply dynamic line ratings
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