South Australian Energy Transformation RIT-T: Project Assessment Conclusions Report
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13 February 2019 SOUTH AUSTRALIA ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PACR 13 FEBRUARY 2019 Copyright and Disclaimer Copyright in this material is owned by or licensed to ElectraNet. Permission to publish, modify, commercialise or alter this material must be sought directly from ElectraNet. Reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure that the information contained in this report is accurate at the time of writing. However, ElectraNet gives no warranty and accepts no liability for any loss or damage incurred in reliance on this information. Revision Record Date Version Description Author Checked By Approved By ElectraNet internal review Brad Harrison and 13 February 2019 1.0 First Issue and Jurisdictional Rainer Korte HoustonKemp Planning Bodies SOUTH AUSTRALIA ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PACR 13 FEBRUARY 2019 Executive Summary ElectraNet has investigated interconnector and network support options aimed at reducing the cost of providing secure and reliable electricity to South Australia in the near term, while facilitating the longer-term transition of the energy sector across the National Energy Market (NEM) to low emission energy sources. We have applied the Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T)1 to this identified need. This Project Assessment Conclusions Report (PACR) is the final formal step in the South Australia Energy Transformation (SAET) RIT-T and takes into account stakeholder feedback received during earlier stages of the RIT-T process, including consultation on a Project Assessment Draft Report (PADR) published in June 2018. Our investigation has been undertaken in consultation with, and with the support of, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) as the national planning body and relevant Jurisdictional Planning Bodies AEMO (Victoria), Powerlink (Queensland) and TransGrid (New South Wales). Overview This PACR confirms the draft finding that a new 330 kV interconnector between South Australia and New South Wales will deliver substantial economic benefits as soon as it can be built. The preferred option has been amended since the PADR to also include a transmission augmentation between Buronga in New South Wales and Red Cliffs in Victoria. The analysis in this PACR and accompanying reports shows that the new interconnector will: • deliver net market benefits of approximately $900 million over 21 years (in present value terms) including wholesale market fuel cost savings in excess of $100 million/year as soon as it is energised (primarily from avoided expensive gas-fired generation in South Australia); • provide diverse low-cost renewable generation sources to help service New South Wales demand going forward, particularly as existing coal-fired generators retire; • avoid substantial capital costs associated with enabling greater integration of renewables in the National Electricity Market (NEM); • generate sufficient benefits to recover the project capital costs within nine years of completion; • reduce annual residential bills by about $66 in South Australia and $30 in NSW, and annual small business customer bills $132 in South Australia and $71 in NSW (as estimated by ACIL Allen); • deliver flow on economic benefits to the wider economy totalling over $6 billion across South Australian and NSW (in present value terms); • generate over 200 regional jobs in South Australia and over 800 regional jobs in NSW during construction, and create around 250 and 700 ongoing jobs in South Australia and NSW, respectively. • improve the ability of parties to obtain hedging contracts in South Australia and help relieve the tight liquidity in hedging markets currently. We have undertaken extensive stakeholder engagement to ensure the robustness of the RIT-T findings and thank all parties for their valuable input to the consultation process. This engagement has significantly helped test the various options considered and ensures the robustness of the findings regarding the preferred option. 1 The Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T) is the economic cost benefit test that is overseen by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and applies to all major network investments in the NEM. Page 3 of 214 SOUTH AUSTRALIA ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PACR 13 FEBRUARY 2019 Benefits of a new interconnector between South Australia and New South Wales Australia’s energy markets are undergoing rapid change as the sector transitions to a world with lower carbon emissions and greater uptake of renewable generation and emerging technologies. These changes have brought with them a number of challenges, including: • a current reliance on high cost gas plant in South Australia to provide dispatchable capacity; and • increased variability of demand and supply due to a dominance of intermittent renewable generation (both grid-scale and household PV). This in turn has led to high wholesale prices in South Australia and a reduction in contract market liquidity, fuelling affordability concerns for customers. In addition, the South Australian region is seen as continuingly vulnerable to extreme weather events and system disturbances. Going forward, the progressive retirement of around half of the New South Wales coal fleet by 2035 (or sooner) means that alternative low emission supply sources will be required to fill this gap whilst meeting Australia’s carbon emissions policy commitments. A new interconnector between South Australia and New South Wales provides a range of benefits that help meet these challenges and support this energy transition, as shown in Figure E.1. Figure E.1 Benefits of a new South Australia to New South Wales interconnector Page 4 of 214 SOUTH AUSTRALIA ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PACR 13 FEBRUARY 2019 A new high capacity interconnector between South Australia and New South Wales will deliver substantial economic benefits as soon as it can be built Our RIT-T assessment shows that of all options considered a new 330 kV interconnector between Robertstown in mid-north South Australia and Wagga Wagga in New South Wales, via Buronga and with an augmentation between Buronga and Red Cliffs (referred to as Option C.3), is expected to deliver the highest net market benefits and is therefore found to be the preferred option. This finding is robust across a wide range of future scenarios and sensitivity tests and is consistent with the finding of AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) 2 and our earlier PADR. Figure E.2 Preferred option for the South Australian Energy Transformation RIT-T, ‘Option C.3’ The preferred option3 is estimated to deliver net market benefits of around $900 million over 21 years (in present value terms), including wholesale market fuel cost savings in excess of $100 million per annum as soon as the interconnector is energised. These fuel cost savings are primarily driven by avoided high-cost South Australian gas generation. The new interconnector will place downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices with flow on benefits to customer pricing. Independent modelling by ACIL Allen estimates an annual average reduction in the typical residential customer bill of about $66 in South Australia and $30 in New South Wales, and an annual average reduction for small business customers of around $132 in South Australia and $71 in New South Wales.4 2 AEMO published its inaugural Integrated System Plan in July 2018. 3 The preferred option is defined as the option that maximises net market benefits under the RIT-T framework. 4 ACIL Allen, SA-NSW Interconnector – Updated Analysis of Potential Impact on Electricity Prices and Assessment of Broader Economic Benefits, February 2019. Page 5 of 214 SOUTH AUSTRALIA ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PACR 13 FEBRUARY 2019 The flow on effect of these reductions on the wider economy is substantial, with ACIL Allen projecting an increase in total real income over the longer term of $2.4 billion in South Australia and $4.0 billion in New South Wales (in present value terms)5 through the construction and ongoing operation of the interconnector.6 During construction, the project will generate over 200 regional jobs in South Australia and over 800 regional jobs in New South Wales. Based on the overall economic impact, the interconnector is projected to create 250 ongoing jobs in South Australia and 700 ongoing jobs in New South Wales. The interconnector has an estimated delivery time of 2022 to 2024, depending on the time taken to gain environmental and other necessary approvals. However, given the benefits that will be obtained as soon as the new interconnector is in place, we are working closely with the South Australian Government and TransGrid to undertake pre-approval works to bring forward the completion timeframe of the project as much as possible. Similarly, TransGrid is working with the New South Wales government which has committed to supporting preliminary works to bring forward project delivery. In December 2018, the South Australian and New South Wales governments signed a Memorandum of Understanding, which establishes a framework for cooperation between the two governments that seeks to expedite the delivery of the interconnector project. The South Australian Government’s underwriting of early works and the agreed framework for cooperation between governments increases the likelihood of achieving a 2022 delivery date. AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) has identified this investment as a ‘Group 2’ project that should proceed as soon as possible AEMO’s ISP confirms that the NEM is undergoing a fundamental transformation with large amounts of coal generation expected to close over the next