bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.11.434913; this version posted March 12, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 1 2 On the generality and cognitive basis of base-rate neglect 3 4 5 Elina Stengårda*, Peter Juslina, Ulrike Hahnb, Ronald van den Berga,c 6 7 aDepartment of Psychology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden 8 bDepartment of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck University of London, London, UK 9 cDepartment of Psychology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 10 11 12 13 *Corresponding author 14 E-mail:
[email protected] 15 16 1 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.11.434913; this version posted March 12, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 17 ABSTRACT - Base rate neglect refers to people’s apparent tendency to underweight or even 18 ignore base rate information when estimating posterior probabilities for events, such as the 19 probability that a person with a positive cancer-test outcome actually does have cancer. While 20 many studies have replicated the effect, there has been little variation in the structure of the 21 reasoning problems used in those studies.