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MARINE PORT Solid Potentials but Strongly Clustered INDUSTRY COVERAGE 22-Nov-2018 Industry MARINE PORT Solid potentials but strongly clustered Rating OVERWEIGHT Pros: Marine shipping is seeing not only a recovery but also a strong shifting to super-sized container vessels. Table of contents South East Asian maritime routes can be promising alternative choices during China-US 1. Overviews Trade War. 2. Catalysts 3. Financial Performance Seaport is an important node of Vietnam logistic system with strong profitability and cash flows generation. 4. Conclusion & Stock pick Domestic market has a high entry barrier from regulation (foreign ownership limit at 51%, Stock Picks limited land banks and permits). VSC: HOSE (Overweight, VND 50,000) Regulation on port tariffs (lower and upper limits) are tightened to avoid a price war among ports. The new draft about regulated tariffs is a favor for (1) international ports (I and IA 2018F 2019F 2020F classes) and (2) deep-water ports. PER (x) 7.1 6.2 5.3 Vietnam cargo throughput is expected to grow 12-15% annually in the next 3-5 years with PBR (x) 1.2 1.1 0.9 supports from trading activities from current and new FTAs such as VN-EAEUV, Vietnam- EV/EBITDA (x) 2.8 1.8 0.9 Korea (VNKFTA), Vietnam-EU (EVFTA expected to come into effect in 2019), RCEP – DY (%) 5.0% 5.8% 6.8% ASEAN+6 – on-going negotiation, etc., especially CPTPP (expected to be effective in Dec EPS (VND) 5,566 6,442 7,519 2018) and FDI sector. BPS (VND) 32,874 37,016 41,835 North (Hai Phong) and South (HCMC and CMTV-Vung Tau) will be the major hubs of Cyclical industry uptrend with robust Vietnam marine port industry. growth in cargo throughput of Hai Phong. The increase in deploying larger container vessels is an opportunity for container ports, VIP Green has favor location in Hai Phong and support from Evergreen GIC which have a suitable natural depth and equipment. logistics centre to maintain strong growth in the next 3-5 years. Cons: The prospect of Vietnam marine shipping industry is still over-shadowed. Lack of integration with land infrastructure limits the potential growth of port industry and Bao H. Vo Vietnam logistic in general. (+84-28) 3914 8585 - Ext: 1460 Newly operating ports can have a short-term impact on the business results in the first 1- [email protected] 2 years with huge required initial investment (usually with high financial leverage) www.kisvn.vn Not all players share the same opportunity: o Small ports in unfavoured locations have limited potential and profitability. o Hai Phong will have higher competition in the long term with a significant amount of additional capacity. o CMTV (Vung Tau) needs an improvement of after-port land infrastructure to boost the potential of this area. Conclusion: Vietnam marine port industry is expected to enjoy a solid growth rate of 12-15% in the next 3-5 years. High entry barrier and tighten regulation can be considered as a favor for the existing port owners/operators. Stock picks: VSC 22-Nov-2018 Page 1 Equity Research - KIS Vietnam Securities Corp. Bloomberg: KISVN <GO> INDUSTRY COVERAGE - MARINE PORT Solid potentials but strongly clustered 1. Overview of Vietnam marine port industry Vietnam Cargo Freight Percentage Marine port is an important node of the logistic chain where cargo is transferred from from 2014-2017 road transportation to marine one. In Vietnam, because marine and inland waterways 4.8%0.0%0.4% transportation accounts for around 22.5% of total volume of Vietnam freight, the 5.2%0.0%0.4% marine port industry plays an important role in Vietnam logistics and trading activities. 17.3% 17.1% 5.3%0.0%0.6% 17.6%5.5%0.0%0.7% Vietnam Marine and Inland waterways freight 17.7% ('000 tons) 76.2% 350,000 20% 76.5% 300,000 77.2% 15% 77.5% 250,000 10% 200,000 5% Road Inland Waterways 150,000 0% Marine transport Aviation 100,000 Railway 50,000 -5% Source: GSO, KISVN 0 -10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Inland Waterways Marine transport Inland Waterways Growth (%) Marine Transport Growth (%) Source: GSO, KISVN According to from Vietnam Maritime Administration, the cargo throughputs of Vietnam had a CAGR of 11% in 2010-2017. In which, since 2015 there has been a robust growth of container throughputs mostly correlated with the impressive boost of import/export activities. Cargo throughputs of Vietnam marine ports CAGR = 11% 800,000 17.5% 20% 14.7% 15.0% 600,000 15% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.0% 400,000 10% 6.6% 200,000 5% 259,100 286,600 316,600 349,900 373,000 427,816 466,320 536,431 630,157 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Cargo throughput ('000 tons) Growth% Source: Vietnam Maritime Administration, Vinalines, SNP, KISVN 1.1. Market Segments The marine port industry of Vietnam can be classified into market segments in order to have better insights into the growth and competition among companies. 22-Nov-2018 Page 2 Equity Research - KIS Vietnam Securities Corp. Bloomberg: KISVN <GO> INDUSTRY COVERAGE - MARINE PORT Solid potentials but strongly clustered 1.1.1 By region With a long-narrow shape spreading from North to South of Vietnam intercepting by geographic elements along the way, the ports in different regions of Vietnam have Group 1 their own markets. Therefore, the across-region competition is generally insignificant. According to the Master Plan of Vietnam Marine Port Industry of Ministry of Transportation (MoT), the port system is classified into 6 groups of regions. Group 2 Group # Region North regions: Quang Ninh, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh and Hai 1 Phong Group 3 2 North-Central regions: Thanh Hoa, Nghe An Central regions: Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, 3 Quang Nam and Quang Ngai South-Central regions: Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan and 4 Binh Thuan. East-South regions: HCMC, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Binh Duong 5 Group 4 and ports in Soai Rap River – Long An. Mekong Delta Regions: 13 provinces and cities of Mekong Delta Area, 6 Phu Quoc and islands in South-West area of Vietnam ocean. Source: Vietnam Ministry of Transportation, KIS VN Group 5 In this report, we re-grouped those groups above into 3 major regions: North (group Group 6 1, 2); Central (group 3 and 4) and South (group 5 and 6). 2016 Cargo throughput 2016 Container throughput percentage percentage North, 31% North, 32% South , 47% Vietnam Cargo South, Throughput 2016, 2017 63% by Cargo Types Central, Central, 21% 5% Source: Vietnam Maritime Administration, KISVN 30% 32% 21% 1.1.2 By cargo type 32% Beside location, ports facilities also serve certain markets as each type of cargo usually requires specific equipment. Any change in type of cargo will require the 13% installment of new facilities. Thus, competition is almost none among ports equipped 44% 12% for different types of cargo and changes in type of cargo will require a substantial 41% facility investment, which may last for years. From that, marine ports can also be divided based on type of cargo: Container Liquid Bulk Transit Bulk (dry bulk) ports: specialized in loading/unloading commodity cargo that is transported unpackaged in large quantities. For instance: grain, coal, gravel, copper, wood chips, etc. Container ports: specialized in loading/unloading goods that are contained in standardized shipping containers (mostly of either twenty- or forty-feet standard length). 22-Nov-2018 Page 3 Equity Research - KIS Vietnam Securities Corp. Bloomberg: KISVN <GO> INDUSTRY COVERAGE - MARINE PORT Solid potentials but strongly clustered Vietnam Cargo Liquid port: specialized in accommodate liquid goods (crude oil, LNG, Throughput 9M.2017 & gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) which are shipped by specific tank vessels. 9M.2018 Automobiles: generally known as RORO – Roll-on/Roll-off. This type of ports is specialized for ro-ro ships to carry wheeled cargo such as cars, trucks, etc. that are driven on and off the ship on their own wheels or a platform vehicle. 26% Passengers: specialized in accommodate cruise ships which provide the 30% transportation service, mostly for tourism purpose. 30% 31% As reported by Vietnam Maritime Administration, in 9M.2018, bulk cargo accounted for the largest percentage of cargo throughput of Vietnam marine ports (45% in metric 12% tonnage). This number was 44% and 41% in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The second 12% 49% type of cargo was the container which accounted for 30% of total Vietnam cargo throughput (in tons equivalent) and reached 13.33 mil. TEUs (+27%YoY). Meanwhile, 45% the throughput of liquid was around 12-13% of the total throughput in recent years and 12% in 9M.2018. In this report, we mainly focus on bulk, container and liquid as they contribute most of Container Liquid Bulk Transit the annual revenue of Vietnam marine ports. Whereas, as most of the tourists in Vietnam travel by land and air transportation, passenger market contributes an insignificant and inconsistent amount of revenue for Vietnam ports; hence, we exclude this type of market in this report. 1.1.3 By port types/sizes Additionally, according to the Master Plan of Vietnam Ministry of Transportation, Vietnam marine ports also have a 3-level classification based on size, purposes, location and affection of the ports as follows: Type 1: National ports that are exceptionally important for the economic-social national and international development. Type 1A: National ports which play as entrances or international transit terminals. Type 2: local/regional ports that are important for economic-social of regional, local development (within Vietnam).
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