Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic
PUBLICATIONS Water Resources Research RESEARCH ARTICLE Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and 10.1002/2017WR020970 Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Special Section: Karnataka, India Engagement, Communication, and Decision-Making Under Ajay Gajanan Bhave1,2 , Declan Conway1, Suraje Dessai2 , and David A. Stainforth1,3,4 Uncertainty 1London School of Economics and Political Science, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK, 2Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Key Points: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 3London School of Economics and Political Science, An iterative approach combining 4 qualitative and quantitative methods Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, UK, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK is used to assess robustness of adaptation options and pathways Performance criteria for the Cauvery Abstract Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing River Basin in Karnataka are not countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid satisfied under almost all scenarios with or without adaptation socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. A coproduction approach helps We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with target stakeholder priorities in the stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adapta- hydrological modeling and design of long-term adaptation pathways tion options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed Supporting Information: streamflow.
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