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Systems Approach to Management of Water Resources—Toward Performance Based Water Resources Engineering

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Systems Approach to Management of Water Resources—Toward Performance Based Water Resources Engineering water Article Systems Approach to Management of Water Resources—Toward Performance Based Water Resources Engineering Slobodan P. Simonovic Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada; [email protected]; Tel.: +1-519-661-4075 Received: 29 March 2020; Accepted: 20 April 2020; Published: 24 April 2020 Abstract: Global change, that results from population growth, global warming and land use change (especially rapid urbanization), is directly affecting the complexity of water resources management problems and the uncertainty to which they are exposed. Both, the complexity and the uncertainty, are the result of dynamic interactions between multiple system elements within three major systems: (i) the physical environment; (ii) the social environment; and (iii) the constructed infrastructure environment including pipes, roads, bridges, buildings, and other components. Recent trends in dealing with complex water resources systems include consideration of the whole region being affected, explicit incorporation of all costs and benefits, development of a large number of alternative solutions, and the active (early) involvement of all stakeholders in the decision-making. Systems approaches based on simulation, optimization, and multi-objective analyses, in deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy forms, have demonstrated in the last half of last century, a great success in supporting effective water resources management. This paper explores the future opportunities that will utilize advancements in systems theory that might transform management of water resources on a broader scale. The paper presents performance-based water resources engineering as a methodological framework to extend the role of the systems approach in improved sustainable water resources management under changing conditions (with special consideration given to rapid climate destabilization). An illustrative example of a water supply network management under changing conditions is used to convey the basic principles of performance-based water resources engineering methodology. Keywords: water resources systems; performance-based engineering; simulation; resilience 1. Introduction Two paradigms are identified by Simonovic [1] as shaping contemporary water resources management: “The first paradigm focuses on the complexity of the water resources management domain (increases with time), and the complexity of the modeling tools (decreases with time), in an environment characterized by continuous, rapid technological development (sharp increase in development over time). The illustrative presentation of the complexity paradigm is shown in Figure1a. The extension of temporal and spatial scales characterizing contemporary water resources management problems leads to an increase in the complexity of decision-making processes (which could be measured using a number of state variables on the vertical axis in Figure1a). The evolution of systems analysis with increasing computational power (expressed for example using computational time required for the solution of a problem on the vertical axis in Figure1a) results in more complex analytical tools being replaced by simpler and more robust search tools and very often by simple simulation (assessed using a number of mathematical relationships on the vertical axis in Figure1a). Water 2020, 12, 1208; doi:10.3390/w12041208 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17 The second paradigm deals with the water resources-related data availability (represented for example by the number of observation stations on the vertical axis in Figure 1b) and the natural variability of the domain variables (for example measured by the range of values that a particular state variable can take on the vertical axis in Figure 1b) in time and space that affect the uncertainty (possibly expressed by the statistical dispersion of the values attributed to a measured quantity on the vertical axis in Figure 1b) of water resources management decision-making (Figure 1b). Data necessary for management of water resources are costly and collected by various agencies. The financial constraints of government agencies that are responsible for the collection of water-related data have resulted in reduction of data collection programs in many countries.” Water 2020, 12, 1208 2 of 16 FigureFigure 1. 1. IllustrationIllustration of of the the ( (aa)) complexity complexity and and ( (bb)) uncertainty uncertainty paradigms paradigms (after (after [1]). [1]). TheThe traditional second paradigm understanding deals with of water the water resources resources-related management data is that availability it is the (representedmanagement forof waterexample resources by the [2 number–5]. But of the observation language behind stations the on concept the vertical is simpler axis since in Figure there1b) is anda set theof complex natural interactionsvariability of between the domain the water variables resources, (for example people measuredand the environment by the range tha oft valuesthey all that share. a particular The two paradigmsstate variable call can for takea question: on the What vertical are axis we inmanaging? Figure1b) We in timetry to and manage space environments that a ffect the (water, uncertainty land, air,(possibly etc.). We expressed keep try by to the manage statistical the dispersionbehavior of of people the values within attributed environments to a measured [6]. It seems quantity that onevery the timevertical we axisintroduce in Figure a change1b) ofwater at one resources point, it causes management an unexpected decision-making response (Figure somewhere1b). Data else necessary—the first fundamentalfor management systems of water principle. resources are costly and collected by various agencies. The financial constraintsIt is argued of government by Simonovic agencies [7] (based that are on responsible [6]) that the for system the collection in our f ofocus water-related is a social system. data have It describesresulted in the reduction way water of data resources collection are programs interacting in manywith people countries.” to clearly define the management problemThe and traditional determine understanding the best strategies of water for resources systems management intervention. is The that water it is the resources management system of includeswater resources four tightly [2–5 connected]. But thelanguage subsystems: behind individuals, the concept organizations, is simpler sincesociety, there and is the a set environment. of complex Tointeractions sustainably between manage the water water resources, resources, peoplethe interactions and the environment between the that four they subsystems all share. must The two be appropriatelyparadigms call mapped. for a question: What are we managing? We try to manage environments (water, land, air, etc.).Individuals We keep are try the to manageplayers thein organizations behavior of people and society within environmentsand affect the [way6]. It th seemsey behave. that every As individualtime we introduce decision a-makers, change atthey one have point, a direct it causes role an in unexpected the use and response management somewhere of water else—the resources. first Organizationsfundamental systems are used principle. by individuals as an instrument to obtain outcomes that they cannot produce. The sIttructure is argued of the by organizations Simonovic [7 ]is (based develo onped [6 to]) realize that the a systemparticular in ourset of focus goals. is Structure a social system. of the organizationsIt describes the defines way water resource resources and information are interacting flows with and people governs to clearly the organization define the managemental behavior. Individualsproblem and and determine organizations the best arestrategies subsets of for society. systems The intervention. society is a system The water that resourcesencompasses system the relaincludestionships four between tightly connected people, the subsystems: rules of behavior individuals, and the organizations, mechanisms society, that are and used the to environment. regulate it. SocietiesTo sustainably are nested manage within water the environment. resources, the The interactions environment between includes the concrete four subsystems elements mustsuch as be water,appropriately air, raw mapped.materials, natural systems, as well as the universe of ideas including the expectation of futureIndividuals water shortages are the and players future in global organizations change impacts and society that define and concern affect the for waysustainable they behave. water resourcesAs individual management. decision-makers, they have a direct role in the use and management of water resources. OrganizationsEvery open are system used byincludes individuals inputs as of an energies instrument—resources to obtain— outcomesthat are transformed that they cannot into outputs. produce. SyThestems structure inputs of and the organizationsoutputs include is developedresources, information to realize a particularand values. set They of goals. link individuals, Structure of organizations,the organizations society defines and resource environment. and information Information flows and governsresource the flows organizational link people behavior. and organizations.Individuals and Value organizations systems are are attached subsets to of information society. The and society resource is a systemflows. T thathey encompassesare generated theby therelationships individuals
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