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Distit Group Corporate Research DistIT Group NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. Company Update IT/Technology Sweden 30 March 2021 The brand builder Reflecting DistIT Group’s new financial targets to reach 8% EBIT on sales of SEK 3.5bn in 2025, we upgrade our sales and earnings estimates over our forecast period ending 2023. Based on revised earnings, we arrive at a new midpoint DCF equity value of SEK 125 per share (changed from SEK 105). At this level the equity would be valued at 13x 2021 EV/EBIT – on par with peers. New market sales and increased share of own brands are key assumptions. Key Data (2021E) Price (SEK) 104.00 A credible EBIT bridge to 2025 targets Reuters DIST.ST At DistIT Group’s CMD (on 25 March), management outlined the key assumptions DIST:SS Bloomberg to achieve sales of SEK 3.5bn and EBIT of at least SEK 280m (“over 8% of sales”) Market cap (SEKm) 1,277 in 2025. Around SEK 400m (or 35%) of the SEK 1.1bn delta in total revenue is Market cap (USDm) 148 expected to be generated from new markets, implying a reasonable 5.5% CAGR Market cap (EURm) 125 to reach 2025 sales of SEK 3.1bn in its existing markets. We have increased our Net debt (SEKm) 144 private label and own brand sales assumptions. These sales will also be the main Net gearing 27% Net debt/EBITDA (x) 0.9 driver in reaching total revenue targets, implying a CAGR of 8.2% in 2020-2025. From increased higher margin sales and resulting operating leverage, we Shares fully dil. (m) 12.3 upgrade our EBIT forecasts by 16%, 10% and 8%, respectively, in 2021-2023. Avg daily turnover (m) 0.0 Free float 60% A strong balance sheet leaves room for its M&A strategy too While not included in our forecasts, CEO Robert Rosenzweig was clear that DistIT remains committed to its M&A strategy and will act as a consolidator in the European distribution industry. DistIT ended last year with 1.1x net debt/EBITDA. Our M&A analyses points to SEK 13 per share in additional value potential. We set our new midpoint DCF equity value at SEK 125 per share Estimate Revisions (%) Based on our upgraded earnings, we estimate that DistIT Group is now valued at 2021E 2022E 2023E Revenues 3 3 5 10x this year’s EV/EBIT and 8x 2022 forecasts. Using an unchanged WACC of Adj. EBIT 16 10 8 8.6% and steady-state EBIT margins of 4.5%, we arrive at our new midpoint DCF Adj. EPS 18 10 8 equity value of SEK 125 per share. At this level the company would be valued at 13x 2021 EV/EBIT – on par with its peer group median valuation. Share Price (12M) Financials (SEK) Year end: Dec 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Revenues (m) 2,331 2,358 2,574 2,758 2,952 100 Adj. EBIT 73 88 125 162 202 80 Pre-tax profit (m) 4 69 113 150 192 60 EPS (0.52) 4.57 7.36 9.18 11.6 Adj. EPS 3.59 5.22 7.95 9.73 12.1 40 DPS 0.00 2.00 2.60 3.00 3.80 20 Revenue growth (%) 2.6 1.2 9.2 7.1 7.0 Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Mar Adj. EBIT growth (%) (14.6) 20.3 42.0 29.3 24.9 Adj. EPS growth (%) (22.7) 45.4 52.2 22.4 24.7 Absolute (green) / Relative to Sweden (purple). Adj. EBIT margin (%) 3.1 3.7 4.9 5.9 6.9 ROE (%) (1.7) 13.4 19.0 20.6 22.2 ROCE (%) 11.5 13.7 18.0 20.8 23.1 Marketing communication commissioned by: PER (x) 11.6 9.1 13.1 10.7 8.6 Free cash flow yield (%) (6.5) 10.5 4.0 7.4 8.9 DistIT Group Dividend yield (%) 0.0 4.2 2.5 2.9 3.7 P/BV (x) 1.29 1.32 2.51 2.17 1.84 EV/Sales (x) 0.32 0.31 0.55 0.50 0.44 EV/Adj. EBITDA (x) 5.8 6.4 9.2 7.1 5.6 EV/Adj. EBIT (x) 10.1 8.4 11.3 8.5 6.5 Operating cash flow/EV (%) (2.0) 11.0 4.9 8.3 10.3 Net debt/Adj. EBITDA (x) 2.31 1.39 0.94 0.49 0.12 Source for all data on this page: SEB (estimates) and Millistream/Thomson Reuters (prices) research.sebgroup.com/corporate Important. All disclosure information can be found on pages 14 – 16 of this document Company Update Marketing communication commissioned by: DistIT Group 30 March 2021 2 M&A adds to total potential EPS upgrades, midpoint DCF to SEK 125 Valuation and midpoint DCF equity value in summary Mid-point DCF value (SEK) 125.00 Share price (SEK) 104.00 2021E EV/EBIT, adj. (x) 11.3 2021E adj. PER at current share price (x) 13.1 2020E DPS (2021 payout) 2.00 Valuation potential Low High Mid-point DCF valuation range (SEK) 106.00 144.00 125.00 Equity potential (%) 2 38 20 2021 adj. EV/EBIT at DCF valuation range (x) 11.2 15.0 13.1 2021E adj. PER at DCF valuation range (x) 13.3 18.1 15.7 2020E DPS yield (%) 1.9 1.9 1.9 Total return potential 4 40 22 Source: SEB Earnings revisions (SEK) 2021E 2022E 2023E Revenues (m) Old 2,506 2,667 2,807 New 2,574 2,758 2,952 Change (%) 3 3 5 Operating profit (m) Old 108 148 188 New 125 162 202 Change (%) 16 10 8 EPS (adjusted) Old 6.76 8.84 11.19 New 7.95 9.73 12.13 Change (%) 18 10 8 Source: SEB M&A analyses: what if scenario What if: estimating acquisition value potential in DistIT Group 2021E Assumed EV/EBIT multiple on acquisitions (x) 10.0 Cash spent on acquisition (SEKm) 250 Acquired EBIT (SEKm) 25 Acquired EBITDA (SEKm) 33 Financing cost @ 3.5% (SEKm) (9) Increased pre-tax profit (SEKm) 16 Increased net income @ 22% tax rate (SEKm) 13 No of shares (m) 12.3 Increased EPS (SEK) 1.03 Distribution & Retail peer group PER 2022E, median (x) 16.4 Assumed PER post-20% discount to peer group median (x) 13.0 Value increase per share @ peer median PER post-20% discount (SEK) 13.00 Source: SEB M&A analyses: scenario net debt-to-EBITDA (x) ND/EBITDA acq. scenario analysis 2021E Estimated ND (excl. IFRS-16) (SEKm) 108 Estimated EBITDA (SEKm) 154 Estimated ND/EBITDA (x) 0.70 ND (excl. IFRS-16), post-acq (SEKm) 358 EBITDA, post-acq. (SEKm) 187 ND (excl. IFRS-16)/EBITDA, post-acq (x) 1.92 Source: SEB Corporate Research NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. Company Update Marketing communication commissioned by: DistIT Group 30 March 2021 3 DistIT Group has a strong balance sheet: net debt-to-EBITDA forecasts (x) 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.31 2.00 1.90 1.50 1.38 1.10 0.94 1.00 0.70 0.50 0.00 Q1/17 Q3/17 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q2/20 Q2/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q1/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21E Q4/21E Q2/21E Q3/21E Net debt/adj. EBITDA (x) Net debt excl. IFRS 16/adj. EBITDA (x) Source: SEB 12M trailing gross and EBIT margin forecasts (%) 30.0 10.0 27.2 26.0 8.0 24.6 23.4 6.9 22.0 22.0 6.0 4.9 4.5 18.0 3.8 4.0 12Mtrailing gross margins (%) 12Mtrailing Adj. EBIT margins (%) 14.0 2.0 10.0 0.0 Q1/14 Q3/14 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q2/16 Q4/16 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q4/19 Q2/20 Q4/20 Q4/13 Q2/14 Q4/14 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q1/16 Q3/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q4/17 Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20 2022E 2023E Q3/21E Q1/21E Q2/21E Q4/21E 12M trailing gross margin (%) 12M trailing adj. EBIT margin (%) Source: SEB Financial targets and SEB forecasts DistIT SEBE DistIT DIST/SEB 6Y to 2025 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2025T Diff (%/pp) CAGR (%) Financial targets 2025 vs SEB estimates Net sales (SEKm) 2,358 2,574 2,758 2,952 3,168 3,410 3,500 3 8.2 Gross margin (%) 22.0 23.4 24.0 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.0 (0.2) GP (SEKm) 519 603 663 727 789 859 875 2 11.0 EBIT margin (%) 3.8 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.3 7.8 >8.0 0.2 EBIT (SEKm) 89 125 162 202 232 265 280 6 25.8 Source: SEB, DistIT Group Accumulated bridge to 2025 targets Accumulated delta 2020-25 o/w current geo o/w new markets 2025 target bridge (SEKm) Sales, accum. chg 1,142 742 400 GM, chg (pp) 3.0 GP, accum. chg 356 EBIT margin, chg 4.2 EBIT, accum.
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