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Artificial Intelligence: American Attitudes and Trends.” Oxford, UK: Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, 2019

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Artificial Intelligence: American Attitudes and Trends.” Oxford, UK: Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, 2019 0101010001010111010011010001010100001010101000010100100010000101000010111110100101000100101010001011110010 0100010100100100010101000001110101011110101010101011100010111011000001110101000010101010111110101010101000 0010000011111110101010010101001010101010101000010101010100010101110100110100010101000010101010000101001000 1000010100001011111100101000100101010001011110010010001010010010001010100000101111010101010101110001011101 1000001110101000010101010111110101010101000001000001111111010101001010100101010101010100001010101010001101 0101110100110100010101000010101010011101101010001000010100001011111010010111000111011000001001010100010111 1001001000101001001000101010000010111101010101010111000101110110000011101010010100100100101010101111101010 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1110010010010010001010100000101111010101010101110001011101100000111010100001010101011111010101010100000100 0001111111010101001010100101010101010100001010101010001010111010011010001010100001010101000010100100010000 1010000101111101001010001001010100010111100100100010100100100010101000001011110101010101011100010111101011January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rtifcial Intelligence: 1000010101010000101001000100001010000101111101001010001001010100010111100100100010100100100010101000001011 1101010101010111000101110110000011101010000101010101111101010101010000010000011111110101010010101001010101 0101010000101010101000101011101001101000101010000101010100001010010001000010100001011111010010100010010101 0001011110010010001010010010001010100000101111010101010101110001011101100000111010100001010101011111010101American Attitudes and Trends 0101000001000001111111010101001010100101010101010100001010101010001010111010011010001010100001010101000010 1001000100001010000101111000101000100101010001011110010010001010010010001010100000101111010101010101110001 0101010101110001010111011000001110101100010101010111110101010101000001000001111111010101001010100101010101 0101000010101010100010101110100110110000101001000100001010000101111101001010001001010100010111100100100010 1001001000101010000010111101010101010111000101110110000111010011101010101000010100100010000101000010111110 1001010001001010100010111100100100010100100100010101000001011110101010101011100010111011000001110101000010 1010101111101010101010000010000011111110101010010101001010101010101000010101010100010101110100110100010101 0000101010100001010010001000010100001011111010010100010010101000101111001001000101001001000101010000010111 101010v011011101101101010111110000101110110000011101010000101010101111101010101010000010000011111110101010 0101010010101010101010000101010101000101011101001101000101010000101010100001010010001000010100001011111010 0101000100101010001011110010010001010010010001010100000101111011101100000111010100001010101011111010101010 1000001000001111111010101001010100101010101010100100001010101011111010101010100000100000111111101010100101 0100101010101010100001010101111010110110010001010111010011010001010100001000101010101000101011101001101000 1010100001010101000010100100010000101000010111110100101000100101010001011110010010001010010010001010100000 10111101010101010 1110001011101100000111010100001010101011111010101010100000100000111111101010100101010010 1010101010100001010101010001010111010011010001010100001010101000010100100010000101000010111110100101000100 1010100010111100100100010100100100010101000001011110101010101011100010111011000001110101000010101010111110 1010101010000010000011111110101010010101001010101010101000010101010100010101110100110100010101000010101010Baobao Zhang & Allan Dafoe 0001010010001000010100001011111010010100010010101000101111001001000101001001000101010000010111101010101010 1110001011101100000111010100001010101011111010101010100000100000111111101010100101010010101010101010000101Center for the Governance of AI 0101010000011101111011010111010011010001010100001010101000010100100010000101000010111110100101000100101010 Future of Humanity Institute 0010111100100100010100100100010101000001011110101010101011100010111011000001110101000010101010111110101010 1010000010000011111110101010010101001010101010101000010101010100010101110100110100010101000010101010000101University of Oxford 0010001000010100001011111010010100010010101000101111001001000101001001000101010000010111101010101010111000 1011101100000111010100001010101011111010101010100000100000111111101010100101010010101010101010000101010101 0001010111010011010001010100001010101000010100100010000101000010111110100101000100101010001011110010010001 010010010001010100000101111010110100 January 2019 1 Executive summary 3 1.1 Select results ................................................ 3 1.2 Reading notes ................................................ 4 2 General attitudes toward AI 5 2.1 More Americans support than oppose developing AI ............................ 5 2.2 Support for developing AI is greater among those who are wealthy, educated, male, or have experience with technology ............................................... 5 2.3 An overwhelming majority of Americans think that AI and robots should be carefully managed ...... 10 2.4 Harmful consequences of AI in the context of other global risks ...................... 11 2.5 Americans’ understanding of key technology terms ............................. 14 3 Public opinion on AI governance 17 3.1 Americans consider many AI governance challenges to be important; prioritize data privacy and preventing AI-enhanced cyber attacks, surveillance, and digital manipulation ..................... 17 3.2 Americans who are younger, who have CS or engineering degrees express less concern about AI governance challenges .................................................. 20 3.3 Americans place the most trust in the U.S. military and universities to build AI; trust tech companies and non-governmental organizations more than the government to manage the technology .......... 20 4 AI policy and U.S.-China relations 26 4.1 Americans underestimate the U.S. and China’s AI research and development ............... 26 4.2 Communicating the dangers of a U.S.-China arms race requires explaining policy trade-offs ........ 26 4.3 Americans see the potential for U.S.-China cooperation on some AI governance challenges ........ 28 5 Trend across time: attitudes toward workplace automation 31 5.1 Americans do not think that labor market disruptions will increase with time ............... 31 5.2 Extending the historical time trend ..................................... 31 6 High-level machine intelligence 34 6.1 The public predicts a 54% likelihood of high-level machine intelligence within 10 years .......... 34 6.2 Americans express mixed support for developing high-level machine intelligence ............. 36 6.3 High-income Americans, men, and those with tech experience express greater support for high-level ma- chine intelligence .............................................. 36 6.4 The public expects high-level machine intelligence to be more harmful than good ............. 37 A Appendix A: Methodology 42 B Appendix B: Topline questionnaire 44 C Appendix C: Additional data analysis results 88 About us 108 References 109 1 Baobao Zhang Research Affiliate, Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, Yale University Allan Dafoe Director, Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford Associate Professor and Senior Research Fellow in the International Politics of AI, University of Oxford For useful feedback we would like to thank: Miles Brundage, Jack Clark, Kanta Dihal, Jeffrey Ding, Carrick Flynn, Ben Garfinkel, Rose Hadshar, Tim Hwang, Katelynn Kyker, Jade Leung, Luke Muehlhauser, Cullen O’Keefe, Michael Page, William Rathje, Carl Shulman, Brian Tse, Remco Zwetsloot, and the YouGov Team (Marissa Shih and Sam Luks). In particular, we are grateful for Markus Anderljung’s insightful suggestions and detailed editing. Copy editor: Steven Van Tassell Cover
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