School Place Planning Meeting Shrewsbury Area
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
School Place Planning Meeting Shrewsbury Area Monday, 6 June 2016 Shrewsbury Training & Development Centre Welcome and introductions Purpose of Meeting • Outline the Shropshire position in respect of school place planning, through to 2026 - the end of the current ‘Plan Period’ • Contextualise against the Government’s proposed changes in education policy • Review the forecast position for the Shrewsbury school place planning area • Seek the views of the key local educational stakeholders on the ways forward in securing additional provision of school places in the planning area • Outline and agree the next steps Legal Duties • Council has a statutory duty to plan, organise and commission sufficient school places for every school age child in the county whose parents choose to educate them in the state funded sector • As strategic commissioner the Council forecasts the level of demand and supply of school places, providing the right number of places in the right locations at the right time • Forecasting is a complex task, taking into account: school capacities, current pupil numbers, known pre-school children and planned housing developments • Council employs tried and tested methodology for forecasting future demand • Increasingly challenging as the educational landscape changes, in particular as schools move out of maintained control National Context • Education White paper – Educational Excellence Everywhere – indicates councils will retain legal responsibility for ensuring all children have a school place • All schools still expected to become, or be in the process of becoming academies in the next 6 years, despite the announcement on 6 May • Move to a national fair funding formula from 2019/20 • LGA have raised concerns about the limited powers of Councils to properly discharge place planning duties - indications are that legislative changes are being proposed • Councils cannot currently determine or change the number of places or pupil range of academies • Ongoing commissioning role will be wholly dependent on legislative change and effective working relationships with other providers ie academies and multi-academy trusts School Place Planning Document • Document circulated to all schools and academies in February 2016 • Available on the Shropshire Learning Gateway at https://www.shropshirelg.net/services/school-place-planning/ • Provides a position statement on arrangements for education provision in Shropshire based on current forecasts • Provides overview of likely supply and demand issues in the coming years and identifies areas in which there are forecast pressures on school places • Also highlights areas of falling rolls and potential sustainability issues • Engages with education stakeholders in the strategic process for school place planning in these specific areas • Has led to a round of initial meetings in a number of school place planning areas School and Pupil Demographics • Nationally, Government has identified the need for an additional 600,000 school places up to 2020 • Shropshire is bucking the national trend for pupil growth with a forecast demographic decline in pupil numbers over the same period – currently estimated at 3.2% (excluding housing development) • Individual schools and communities of schools are forecast to see a rise in surplus places by 2020 • Out of Shropshire’s 16 place planning areas, 5 will experience pressure on pupil places by 2026, due primarily to housing developments – Shrewsbury is one of the 5 • However, within these areas the position for individual schools will be contrasting, with some having pressure for places and others facing falling school rolls and possible sustainability issues Shrewsbury Planning Area Shrewsbury Primary Catchment Areas Shrewsbury School Planning Areas North South & West Centre & East Housing Developments • The forecasts used in the data analyses include housing developments that had permission by 31 March 2015 • Other applications that have not received permission by this date or have been submitted since are monitored and included in the long term forecasts • The housing factor used at primary level for the Shrewsbury planning area is 0.1770 ie for every 100 dwellings an average of 18 primary pupils are expected from the development • The housing factor used at secondary level for the Shrewsbury planning area is 0.1414 ie an average of 14 secondary pupils per 100 dwellings • The funding for any capital works due to large scale housing is expected, by the Government, to be funded by developer contributions Shrewsbury Town SAMDev • The Site Allocations and Management of Development Plan (SAMDev) for the town has identified a housing guideline of 6,500 dwellings by 2026 • Allocations of around 3,760 dwellings have been made and are shown by development on the next slide • Analysed over the 3 school planning areas, the 3,760 dwellings are distributed as follows: North Shrewsbury – 330 dwellings Central & East Shrewsbury – 1,930 dwellings South & West Shrewsbury – 1,500 dwellings • It is anticipated that the balance of around 2,740 dwellings will be delivered through what is termed ‘windfall development’ over the Plan Period to 2026 • Work is now underway to partially review the Local Plan, which will identify development needs across Shropshire up to 2036 In and Out of Area Analysis • School expansions are required where current provision does not meet the demand for catchment area pupils • Reminder: right number of places in the right locations at the right time • Displacement can be expected where school numbers include significant numbers of children from outside the school’s catchment area • Displacement can benefit schools who experience catchment area children historically moving out of area and can therefore support sustainability Pupil Forecasts for Shrewsbury Planning Area Shrewsbury Planning Area Total Number on Roll 2010-15 and Forecast to 2023 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Primary Age Range 4-11 (7 year groups) Secondary Age Range 11-16 (5 year groups) Primary Schools Total Net Capacity Secondary School Net Capacity Pupil Number Forecasts Current Forecasts Schools Number on Roll Net Capacity Admission Number October 2015 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 North Shrewsbury Grange Primary 420 60 227 234 242 243 235 Greenacres Primary 210 30 135 143 143 138 134 Harlescott Junior 360 90 340 347 351 359 373 Mount Pleasant Primary 238 34 263 258 263 260 267 Sundorne Infant 270 90 270 269 268 274 285 Total North Shrewsbury 1,498 304 1,235 1,251 1,267 1,274 1,294 Centre & East Shrewsbury Belvidere Primary 238 34 230 225 223 207 191 Coleham Primary 420 60 413 408 414 399 407 Crowmoor Primary 210 30 183 200 211 221 225 Greenfields Primary 350 50 352 355 354 367 367 Martin Wilson Primary 238 34 190 201 211 221 230 Mereside CE Primary 350 50 236 241 257 249 262 Shrewsbury Catholic Cathedral Primary 210 30 138 141 141 141 140 St. Giles' CE Primary 322 46 326 318 316 290 280 Wilfred Owen Primary 210 30 206 205 213 209 207 Total Centre & East Shrewsbury 2,548 364 2,274 2,294 2,340 2,304 2,309 South & West Shrewsbury Meole Brace CE Primary and Nursery 350 50 319 327 347 334 328 Oxon CE Primary 420 60 411 427 449 457 475 Radbrook Primary 315 45 306 311 302 288 282 St. George's Junior 360 90 353 348 358 357 361 Woodfield Infant 270 90 264 265 249 247 213 Total South & West Shrewsbury 1,715 335 1,653 1,678 1,705 1,683 1,659 Rural Shrewsbury Oakmeadow CE Primary and Nursery 420 60 343 363 384 402 397 St. Lucia's CE Primary 112 16 104 104 107 108 95 Total Rural Shrewsbury 532 76 447 467 491 510 492 Total Shrewsbury Primary 6,293 1,079 5,609 5,690 5,803 5,771 5,754 Belvidere School 840 168 814 804 810 816 822 820 841 872 Meole Brace School 1,215 243 1,210 1,217 1,215 1,234 1,252 1,260 1,276 1,292 The Priory School 840 168 837 838 838 849 845 845 856 868 Shrewsbury Academy 1,185 237 835 823 828 866 873 884 909 929 Total Shrewsbury Secondary 4,080 816 3,696 3,682 3,691 3,765 3,792 3,809 3,882 3,961 Note: The changes to the capacities and PANs for Mount Pleasant Primary and Martin Wilson are not reflected in the table above Shrewsbury Primary Primary Catchment Area Analysis – October 2015 612 pupils 10.1% 213 pupils 3.5% 3,575 pupils 58.8% 1,683 pupils 27.6% Total Shrewsbury Catchment (excl Cathedral School) = 6,083 pupils Catchment Area Pupils Other Shrewsbury Pupils Out of Area Pupils Unfilled Places Primary Pupil Number Forecasts 6400 6200 6000 5800 Total Schools' Net Capacity 5600 October 2015 Numbers on Roll Total Pupil Numbers Forecast 5400 5200 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Academic Year Shrewsbury Secondary Secondary Catchment Area Analysis – October 2015 418 pupils 10.3% 136 pupils 3.3% 3,526 pupils 86.4% Total Shrewsbury Catchment = 4,080 pupils Catchment Area Pupils Out of Area Pupils Unfilled Places Secondary Pupil Forecasts Secondary School - Pupil Numbers Forecast 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 Total Secondary Numbers Forecast Total Schools' Net Capacity 3700 October 2015 Numbers on 3600 Roll 3500 3400 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Academic Year Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area • Localised issues continue to be proactively managed • North – additional places at Mount Pleasant and Sundorne Infant in the short to medium term to meet the increase in forecast demand • Centre & East – additional provision at Mereside in longer term to meet demand – consideration towards enhancement of other schools to meet