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Analyst Report KBC Securities

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Analyst Report KBC Securities MORNING NOTE 24 April 2012 Benelux Conference in London, 22 May 2012. Click here to register. Dear client, the Extel Europe 2012 survey will run from 19 March to 4 May. If you appreciate our services, we would be grateful to receive your vote on www.extelsurvey.com in the following categories: Benelux: Country Analysis; Corporate Access; Equity Sales and Trading/Execution. Thank you. CONTENTS Company / Sector Comment Recommendation Price Target Price Cofinimmo Student housing contract with ULB Hold 91.22 96.00 EXMAR Major milestones realised during Q1 Buy 5.76 8.00 GDF Suez One quarter doesn't make the trend reversal Hold 18.19 21.00 Imtech Trading update in line with expectations Buy 21.65 31.00 Mediq Acquires US based D&I company for €12m Buy 11.40 15.00 Mobistar 1Q12E – regulation strikes again Hold 33.00 36.00 Quest for Growth Clear2Pay on the block? Buy 4.23 6.00 Reed Elsevier Reiterates FY12 outlook Accumulate 8.98 11.00 Solvay Ambitious 2016 guidance announced Accumulate 85.83 100.00 Tigenix Cell production facility gets green light Hold 0.57 0.95 Transics Tavares considers take-over bid Buy 6.95 8.00 Umicore FY12 guidance below expectations Hold 41.76 43.00 USG People Double-digit sales decline Accumulate 5.98 11.00 Vopak Preview 1Q12 trading update Hold 47.30 41.00 CHANGES IN RECOMMENDATION CHANGES IN TARGET PRICE Company From To Company From To Umicore Accumulate Hold Umicore 45.00 43.00 KEY FIGURES CHANGES IN EPS FORECAST From To (at close) Price 1D 1M 12M Company 2012 2013 2012 2013 AEX 301.3 -2.6% -7.6% -16.1% Transics (€) 0.57 0.66 0.53 0.59 BEL20 2,246.1 0.0% -3.8% -17.7% CAC40 3,098.4 -2.8% -10.9% -23.0% DAX30 6,523.0 -3.4% -6.8% -10.6% FTSE100 5,665.6 -1.9% -3.2% -5.9% EUROSTOXX50 2,244.8 -2.9% -11.1% -23.6% STOXX50 2,377.7 -2.0% -4.5% -9.5% DJIA 12,926.9 -0.8% -1.2% 3.4% S&P500 1,366.9 -0.8% -2.2% 2.2% NASDAQ Comp 2,970.5 -1.0% -3.2% 5.3% USD/EUR 0.7618 0.5% 0.9% 10.9% GBP/EUR 1.2248 0.3% 2.4% 7.9% Bel govt 3.62% 1.0bps 6.0bps -69.0bps French govt 3.10% 1.0bps 15.0bps -52.0bps Dutch govt 2.43% 11.0bps -2.0bps -115.0bps Source: KBC Securities kbcsecurities.com Refer to important disclosures, disclaimers and analyst certifications at the end of the body of this research. MORNING NOTE 24 April 2012 CORPORATE CALENDAR ROADSHOW CALENDAR Date Company Event Date Company Place 24.04.12 Agfa-Gevaert General Assembly 24.04.12 IRIS Brussels Belgacom Ex div. FI12 27.04.12 Galapagos Paris GBL General Assembly 08.05.12 Galapagos Stockholm GDF Suez Results 1Q12 UCB Brussels Hamon Trading update 1Q12 29.05.12 Beter Bed Holding Brussels Imtech Trading update 1Q12 20.06.12 UCB Stockholm PostNL General Assembly 21.06.12 Randstad Paris Reed Elsevier Trading update 1Q12 Umicore General Assembly Trading update 1Q12 For an overview of our upcoming events, please click here. PUBLICATION OVERVIEW Date Company / Sector Title report Recommendation Target Price 23.04.12 ASMI 1Q12E - the trough? Accumulate 33.00 Melexis Flat 1Q12 sales expected Buy 14.00 20.04.12 Akzo Nobel Margins getting close to the bottom Hold 45.00 Randstad 1Q12 preview: organic growth turns negative Buy 37.00 19.04.12 Heineken Good start to the year Buy 50.00 Nutreco Bullish 1H12 REBITA guidance Accumulate 62.00 Wessanen 1Q12 result preview Accumulate 3.40 17.04.12 Akzo Nobel 1Q12 results preview Hold 45.00 16.04.12 Heineken 1Q12 trading update preview Buy 50.00 13.04.12 BinckBank Weak 1Q12 earnings expected Accumulate 14.00 Nutreco Salmon feed volumes soar in 1Q12 Accumulate 62.00 11.04.12 Imtech Synergy Master looking for new Servants Buy 31.00 Jensen-Group Clients lacking funding Accumulate 11.50 05.04.12 AB InBev Is it SAB time? Hold 56.00 04.04.12 Sipef Bullish outlook for palm oil prices Accumulate 77.00 03.04.12 Duvel Moortgat Still a great growth story Hold 80.00 29.03.12 Cofinimmo Diversification leads the way Hold 96.00 28.03.12 Texaf Expecting 40% REBIT growth in 2012 Accumulate 24.80 27.03.12 Heineken Americas seminar confirms growth potential Buy 50.00 23.03.12 Agfa-Gevaert More restructurings to deal with legacy Hold 1.70 22.03.12 Kinepolis Target price upped on outperformance Buy 80.00 2 MORNING NOTE 24 April 2012 COFINIMMO Student housing contract with ULB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS CURRENT PRICE € 91.22 HOLD BELGIUM TARGET PRICE € 96.00 RATING UNCHANGED Summary: 114 124 110 120 Cofinimmo wins the tender for the contract for ‘works and services relating to 106 116 student housing’ of the Université Libre de Bruxelles. The ULB will grant 102 112 98 108 Cofinimmo a long lease right of 27 years on two buildings. Cofinimmo 94 104 expects a net IRR of 6.60% on the estimated € 14.2m investment. Rating and 90 100 86 97 TP maintained. 82 93 78 89 News: 74 85 AMJ ASOND J FM After a call of tenders by the ULB for a Public Private Partnership (PPP), Cofinimmo has won the contract for ‘works and services relating to student Price Rel. to index (RHS) residence buildings’. The ULB has about 25,000 students and experiences a Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream clear need for student housing. This project comprises a long lease on two Bloomberg COFB BB buildings offering a total of 11,284m². Reuters COFB.BR www.cofinimmo.be One fairly old building has 242 rooms and is in need of a complete Market Cap € 1,360.7m renovation. The other building, built in 1997, comprises 104 rooms and Shares outst. 14.9m doesn’t need immediate renovation works. The ULB owns both buildings and Volume (daily) € 3,256,485 will grant Cofinimmo a long lease right of 27 years. In return, Cofinimmo will Free float 90.4% be responsible for maintenance (technical maintenance only) and receives therefore an annual rent of € 1.21m, indexed annually. This corresponds to Next corporate event an expected net internal rate of return of 6.60%, given the total estimated General Assembly 12: 27 April 2012 investment of € 14.2m. (€ m) 2011 2012E 2013E Current Result 108.8 109.5 103.5 Cofinimmo has joined forces for the tender with general contractor CIT Blaton Portf. Result 9.5 0.0 16.3 and architects Art & Building. Net Profit 118.3 109.5 119.8 Our View: Adj. EPS (€) 7.45 7.05 6.53 This project fits Cofinimmo’s PPP business line; buildings used for specific NAV (€) 104.4 104.9 104.9 purposes by public or semi-public authorities, let on very long leases and for P/E (x) 12.7 12.9 14.0 which Cofinimmo carries out the maintenance. We are positive on this DPS (€) 6.50 6.50 6.50 project, as there is a clear market need for student housing in Belgium and Dividend yield 6.9% 7.1% 7.1% we believe this could be a precedent for further partnerships with universities in the future. Koen Overlaet-Michiels +32 2 429 37 21 Conclusion: [email protected] Although we applaud this deal, Cofinimmo is still largely exposed to the periphery and decentralized zone of the office market in Brussels. Therefore, we maintain our Hold recommendation and € 96 TP. 3 MORNING NOTE 24 April 2012 EXMAR Major milestones realised during Q1 INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION CURRENT PRICE € 5.76 BUY BELGIUM TARGET PRICE € 8.00 RATING UNCHANGED 124 Thursday, after market, Exmar will report its 1Q12 trading update. 6.9 118 6.3 112 In January 2012, Exmar reached an agreement with LLOG whereby LLOG 105 5.7 will prepay the remaining payments for the OPTI-EX in addition to the 99 $ 104.5m already paid in July 2011 and $ 10.4m paid during 2H11. On 31 5.1 92 January 2012, LLOG made a final payment of $ 250m. The total gain for 86 4.6 Exmar on the OPTI-EX amounts to approximately $ 65m, of which $ 23.8m 79 will be recognised in 1Q12. 4.0 73 AMJASONDJFM During the first quarter, Exmar fixed the accommodation barge Kissama to Price Rel. to index (RHS) Total for a period of six months, starting early April, with extension options. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Positive delta (Q2 vs. Q1) on the results for the Offshore activities will be Bloomberg EXM BB about $ 1.7m/quarter. Reuters EXMR.BR www.exmar.be On 28 March 2012, Exmar signed a 15-year agreement to provide Pacific Market Cap € 342.7m Rubiales with a Floating Liquefaction Regasification and Storage Unit Shares outst. 59.5m (FLRSU) to be located on the Colombian Caribbean coast. The FLRSU is Volume (daily) € 287,518 expected to be operational by 4Q14 and will be fixed on a 15y time charter Free float 38.8% contract with pass-through of the operating expenses. We estimate the construction price of the FLRSU region $ 260m. Bareboat rate is estimated at Next corporate event around $ 120k p.d., suggesting annual EBITDA north of $ 40m. Results 1Q12: 26 April 2012 ($ th) 2011 2012E 2013E At the end of March, Exmar announced it has placed an order for up to 8 Sales 499,970 427,247 434,264 MGCs (38,000 cbm).
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