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JYP Entertainment (035900.KQ) BUY / TP KRW24,000 March 16, 2020 Leisure/Entertainment/Small-Cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 [email protected]

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JYP Entertainment (035900.KQ) BUY / TP KRW24,000 March 16, 2020 Leisure/Entertainment/Small-Cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 Airrio@Hmsec.Com Company Note JYP Entertainment (035900.KQ) BUY / TP KRW24,000 March 16, 2020 Leisure/Entertainment/Small-Cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 [email protected] 4Q19 earnings surprise but an uncertain future Share price (KRW, Mar 13) 17,900 1) Investment highlights Upside (%) 34.1 We maintain BUY on JYP Entertainment but cut our target price to KRW24,000. Market cap (KRW bn) 635 TWICE generated MD sales from its dome tour in Japan, digital sales overseas, and YouTube sales. Shares outstanding (’000) 35,495 ITZY’s new single Wannabe is a hit. The advertising market’s awareness of ITZY increased in 4Q19. Paid-in capital (KRW bn)/ Face value 18/500 (KRW) Offline activities have been impossible since March because of the growing coronavirus pandemic, 52-week high/low (KRW) 32,500/16,950 and this will have a negative impact on earnings until 2Q20 or longer. 60-day avg. daily T/O (KRW bn) 13 2) Major issues and earnings outlook Foreign ownership (%) 15.44 Major shareholders (%) Park Jin Young and JYP reported an earnings surprise for 4Q19, with sales coming in at KRW44.3bn (+22% YoY) and three others 18.37 operating profit at KRW13.4bn (+37% YoY). Price performance 1M 3M 6M Merchandise sales from TWICE’s dome tour in Japan was recognized in 4Q19. The 16 concerts held Absolute (%) -28.5 -20.1 -18.1 by GOT7, Stray Kids, and Day6 have also been recognized. As for album sales, Stray Kids sold 200K Relative (%p) -6.2 -1.9 -1.4 albums and GOT7 sold 350,000 mini albums. K-IFRS, consolidated ITZY is gaining more attention in the advertising market and its new single Wannabe released in (KRW) 19F EPS 20F EPS TP 1Q20 did well. We believe ITZY will start to monetize in earnest in 2020. Previous 950 1,095 31,000 Revised 888 860 24,000 The coronavirus pandemic has put an end to all activities at home and abroad, and whether this Consensus 921 1,038 30,143 continues into 2Q20 will prove crucial to earnings and share price performance going forward. Difference (%) -3.6 -17.2 -20.4 Given the company’s heavy dependence on TWICE, it is particularly unfortunate that the girl group can no longer perform in Japan due to the ongoing diplomatic spat between Seoul and Tokyo 12-month price performance which has resulted in mutual travel restrictions. 120 3) Share price outlook and valuation 100 The stock has suffered a short sharp pullback due to the coronavirus pandemic. Earnings and shares 80 60 are unlikely to gain momentum until the disease is brought under control. 40 Our target price is based on 28.3x target P/E and 2020F EPS of KRW860. We maintain BUY JYP Entertainment 20 KOSDAQ considering the possibility of the coronavirus coming under control and Beijing’s lifting of its ban on 0 19.03 19.06 19.09 19.12 20.03 hallyu content. Source: WiseFn, Hyundai Motor Securities Earnings forecasts and valuations Sales OP NP EBITDA EPS Growth P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE Div. yield (KRW bn) (KRW bn) (KRW bn) (KRW bn) (KRW) (%YoY) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) 2017 102 19 16 22 471 91.2 29.2 5.6 19.6 21.4 0.0 2018 125 29 24 30 685 45.5 44.2 8.4 33.8 22.5 0.4 2019F 150 40 34 43 950 38.7 25.4 5.3 17.7 23.3 0.5 2020F 177 45 39 48 1,095 15.3 23.8 4.7 16.7 21.6 0.5 2021F 192 49 43 52 1,210 10.5 21.5 3.9 14.6 19.8 0.5 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated COMPANY NOTE Fig 1. 3Q19 earnings preview Earnings Growth HMS Consensus (KRW bn) 4Q18 3Q19 4Q19P (%YoY) (%QoQ) 4Q19P %difference 4Q19F %difference Sales 36 46 44.3 23.1 -3.7 38.5 15.1 40.3 9.9 Operating profit 10 15 13.4 34.0 -10.7 9.9 35.4 10.0 33.6 OPM (%) 10 14 12.8 28.0 -8.6 10.3 24.3 9.3 38.1 Pretax profit 8 12 6.5 -18.8 -45.8 8.7 -25.3 8.2 -20.4 Net profit (CI) 36 46 44.3 23.1 -3.7 38.5 15.1 40.3 9.9 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated Source: Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 2. Quarterly earnings trends (KRW bn) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F Sales 23.0 31.6 33.9 36.3 26.4 39.2 45.6 44.3 124.8 155.4 163.9 Operating profit 1.4 9.1 8.5 9.9 5.8 9.4 14.8 13.4 28.7 43.4 34.9 Pretax profit 2.4 9.7 8.5 9.6 7.2 8.7 14.3 12.8 30.2 44.0 36.7 Net profit (CI) 1.9 7.3 6.7 8.4 6.3 6.9 11.7 6.5 24.3 31.5 30.5 OPM (%) 5.9 28.7 25.0 27.1 22.0 24.1 32.4 30.3 23.0 27.9 21.3 Pretax margin (%) 10.6 30.8 24.9 26.4 27.1 22.2 31.4 29.0 24.2 28.3 22.4 Net margin (%) 8.1 23.2 19.9 23.0 24.0 17.7 25.7 14.7 19.4 20.3 18.6 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated Source: Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 3. Earnings revisions Revised Previous %change (KRW bn) 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F Sales 155.4 163.9 149.6 177.2 3.9 -7.5 Operating profit 43.4 34.9 39.9 44.8 8.8 -22.2 Pretax profit 44.0 36.7 40.5 46.8 8.7 -21.6 Net profit 31.5 30.5 33.7 38.9 -6.5 -21.5 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated Source: Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 4. Sales by business (based on 2019) Fig 5. Sales by country (based on 2019) Others, 19.9% Music, 37.5% Others, 36.2% China, 4.3% Korea, 49.9% Apr, 6.1% Concert, 10.2% Ads. , 10.1% Japan, 26.0% Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities 2 Fig 6. Sales trend Fig 7. OP and OPM trends (KRW bn) Revenue(L) YoY(R) (KRW bn) OP(L) OPM(R) 50 100% 15 35% 30% 40 80% 12 25% 30 60% 9 20% 20 40% 6 15% 10% 10 20% 3 5% 0 0% 0 0% 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 8. P/E bands Fig 9. P/B bands (KRW) Price 55.0 45.0 ( KRW) Price 17.0 14.0 60 35.0 25.0 15.0 100 11.0 8.0 5.0 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 10 20 0 0 16/01 17/01 18/01 19/01 20/01 16/01 17/01 18/01 19/01 20/01 Source: Dataguide, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Dataguide, Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 10. ITZY’s new album Fig 11. Twice’s Fukuoka concert Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities 3 COMPANY NOTE Income statement Balance sheet (KRW bn) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F (KRW bn) 2017 2018 2019F2020F 2021F Sales 102 125 155 164 178 Current assets 58 83 120 150 184 Change (%) 38.8 22.1 24.5 5.4 8.7 Cash and cash equivalents 25 45 74 102 132 Cost of goods sold 63 69 84 102 112 Short-term investment assets 14 16 19 21 22 % of sales 61.6 55.0 53.7 62.3 62.7 Accounts receivable 11 13 16 17 18 Gross profit 39 56 72 62 66 Inventory assets 2 1 2 2 2 Gross margin (%) 38.4 45.0 46.3 37.7 37.3 Other current assets 6 7 9 9 10 Change (%) 43.7 43.0 28.0 -14.0 7.4 Non-current assets 66 77 82 79 76 SG&A expenses 20 27 28 27 29 Tangible assets 25 37 38 35 32 % of sales 19.4 22.0 18.3 16.5 16.2 Intangible assets 29 29 29 29 29 EBITDA 22 30 47 38 40 Investment assets 3 4 7 7 7 EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 24.0 30.2 23.2 22.6 Other non-current assets 9 7 8 8 8 Change (%) 37.2 34.1 57.0 -19.2 6.0 Other financial assets 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit 19 29 43 35 38 Total assets 124 159 201 229 260 Operating margin (%) 19.0 23.0 27.9 21.3 21.1 Current liabilities 35 31 38 40 42 Change (%) 40.9 47.7 51.0 -19.7 8.0 Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 Non-operating profit 2 2 1 2 2 Accounts payable 7 4 5 5 6 Interest income 1 2 2 2 2 Current portion of long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 Interest expenses 1 0 2 0 0 Other current debt 28 27 33 34 37 Other non-operating income 2 1 0 0 0 Non-current liabilities 4 1 0 0 0 Subsidiaries/affiliate income -1 0 0 0 0 Bonds 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit from cont ops 21 30 44 37 40 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax margin (%) 20.6 24.2 28.3 22.4 22.5 LT financial debt (incl.
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