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Tight Races in Both NH Congressional Districts 8/19/14

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Tight Races in Both NH Congressional Districts 8/19/14 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER August 19, 2014 TIGHT RACES IN BOTH NH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center DURHAM, NH – In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Congresswoman Carol-Shea Porter and former Congressman Frank Guinta remain locked in a tight contest while newcomer Dan Innis remains close. In District 2, Congresswoman Ann Kuster continues to struggle with popularity in her district and is in a dead heat with State Representative Marilinda Garcia. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Eight hundred and twenty-nine (827) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between August 7 and August 17, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.4 percent. Included were 397 residents of New Hampshire’s First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 4.9%) and 430 from the Second District (MSE = +/- 4.7%). Of these residents, 297 in the First District (MSE =+/- 5.7%) and 312 (MSE = +/- 5.5%) in the Second District are 2014 likely voters. Interest in 2014 Election Although the New Hampshire state primary is less than one month away, on September 9th, only a slight majority of Granite Staters consider themselves extremely interested (21%) or very interested (32%) in the 2014 general election. The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats has tightened significantly since last month as 61% of Republicans are extremely or very interested in the election compared to 55% of Democrats. In July, Republicans held a 71%-49% edge on this measure. Interest among political independents continues to be low, as just 39% say they are either extremely or very interested in the upcoming election. "Extremely Interested" or "Very Interested" in 2014 Election 100% 90% 80% 71% 66% 67% 70% 61% 58% 61% 56% 60% 55% 55% 50% 56% 57% 49% 52% 53% 46% 40% 44% 45% 30% 39% 20% 10% 0% Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 All NH Adults GOP IND DEM We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Favorability Ratings – Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter** Democrat Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter was first elected in 2006, lost in 2010, and regained the seat in 2012. She remains modestly popular in the district -- 42% of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral, and 18% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +12%, unchanged since July. Shea-Porter is very popular among Democrats (net +69%), and very unpopular among Republicans (net -51%), while Independents are divided on her (net +1%). Shea-Porter’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is +10%. Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter NH 1st District 49%48% 50% 45% 43% 44% 44% 43% 43% 42% 41%42% 41% 42% 42% 40% 39% 39% 40% 40% 39% 38%38% 38% 37% 40% 35% 33% 39%31% 37% 37% 30% 35% 35% 35% 34% 32%32% 32% 32% 30%31% 30% 30%31% 30% 28% 28% 28%28% 26% 20% 16% 20% 21% 18% 17% 7% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% Favorable Unfavorable GOP Challengers for U.S. Congress – District 1 Former Congressman Frank Guinta (2011-2013), is the best known Republican challenger. Currently 30% of 1st C.D. adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 29% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 9% are neutral and 32% don’t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is +1% which is down from +5% in July. Guinta is very popular among Republicans (net +48%), somewhat popular among Independents (+8%), and very unpopular among Democrats (-43%). Guinta’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is +4%. Favorability Ratings - Frank Guinta NH 1st District 50% 39% 40% 37% 36% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33% 32% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% 31% 38% 30% 28% 28% 30% 23% 22% 30% 28% 28% 29% 26% 27% 27% 26% 27% 27% 20% 24% 24% 22% 20% 18% 17% 10% 14% 11% 8% 0% Apr. June Oct. Feb. Apr. July Sept. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Feb. Apr. Aug. Oct. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. July Aug. '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 ‘10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 Favorable Unfavorable ** In this poll, candidate favorability was asked slightly differently than past polls. See methodology for details. Former UNH Business School Dean Dan Innis (R-Portsmouth) remains largely unknown in the 1st District. Currently, 6% have 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Innis, 7% have an unfavorable opinion, 4% are neutral and 83% don’t know enough to say. His net favorability is -1%, which is down from +8% in July. Innis’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is +1%. Favorability Ratings - Dan Innis NH 1st District 50% 40% 30% 20% 12% 12% 10% 11% 10% 7% 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 6% 0% July '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 Favorable Unfavorable The two other candidates for the GOP nomination, Brendan Kelly (R-Seabrook), who ran for the seat as the Libertarian candidate in 2012 and Everett Jabour (R-Barrington) are unknown in the district. Currently 5% have a favorable opinion of Kelly, 3% have an unfavorable opinion, 1% are neutral and 91% don’t know enough about him to say. Kelly’s net favorability is +2% and +4% among 2014 likely voters. Two percent (2%) have a favorable opinion of Jabour, 3% have an unfavorable opinion, 0% are neutral and 95% don’t know enough about him to say. Jabour’s net favorability is -1% and -3% among 2014 likely voters. Favorability Ratings - Brendan Kelly & Everett Jabour NH 1st District 100% 92% 95% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 5% 3% 2% 3% 0% Brendan Kelly Everett Jabour Favorable Unfavorable Neutral / DK 2014 U.S. Congress Election – 1st District Should Guinta get the Republican nomination, it would be the third time he faced Shea-Porter after defeating her in 2010 and losing in 2012. In a trial heat between Shea-Porter and Guinta, 45% of likely 1st District likely voters say they would vote for Guinta if the election were held today, 41% would support Shea-Porter, and 14% are undecided. This race has stayed relatively steady since July. US Congress District 1 - Shea-Porter vs. Guinta 48% 50% 46% 45% 45% 44% 40% 43% 41% 39% 30% 35% 32% 20% 10% 0% Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 Shea-Porter Guinta Don't Know If Dan Innis were the Republican nominee, 44% of likely voters say they would vote for Shea-Porter if the election were held today, 37% for Innis, 1% support someone else and 18% remain undecided. This race is also unchanged since July. US Congress District 1 - Shea-Porter vs. Innis 50% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 40% 38% 37% 30% 29% 32% 33% 20% 10% 0% Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 Shea-Porter Innis Don't Know As would be expected in hypothetical matchups this early, Democrats and Republicans largely support their party’s candidate and a high percentage of independents are undecided. Guinta currently fares better than Innis against Shea-Porter because he has a large lead among Independents -- Guinta leads Shea-Porter 45%-16%, while Innis leads by 32%-24%. Guinta also does better in the Manchester area where he leads Shea-Porter by 50%-38% while Innis and Shea-Porter are tied 42%-41%. Favorability Ratings – Congresswoman Ann Kuster In New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District, first term Congresswoman Ann Kuster’s favorability ratings remain low. Currently, 29% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 30% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 10% are neutral, and 31% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is -1%, which is down from +6% in July. She is very popular among Democrats (net +44%), somewhat unpopular among Independents (net -11%) and very unpopular among Republicans (net -36%). Kuster’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is 0%. Favorability Ratings – Ann Kuster NH 2nd District 50% 38% 40% 35% 34% 32% 32% 33% 30% 29% 28% 30% 26% 27% 30% 30% 29% 21% 27% 28% 25% 25% 20% 23% 23% 10% 8% 8% 16% 10% 6% 14% 13% 0% Oct. Feb. Apr. July Sept. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Feb. Apr. Aug. Oct. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. July Aug. '09 '10 '10 '10 ‘10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 Favorable Unfavorable GOP Challengers for U.S. Congress – District 2 The four Republican candidates vying to challenge Kuster -- former State Senator Gary Lambert (R-Nashua), State Representative Marilinda Garcia (R-Salem), former State Representative Jim Lawrence (R-Hudson) and former City Councilor Mike Little (R-Concord) all struggle with name recognition. Garcia is the best known Republican challenger. Currently 19% of Second District adults have a favorable opinion of Garcia, 13% have an unfavorable opinion, 4% are neutral, and 64% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is +6%, up from +3% in July.
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