2014 Post-Election Analysis: New Hampshire

2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: NEW HAMPSHIRE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATE OVERVIEW 2

Registration Overview 3 Turnout Analysis 3 Absentee/Early Voting 4 Regional Analysis 4 Election Law Impacts 5 Exit Polling 5 U.S. SENATE 8

Media Spending Analysis 10 Geographic Analysis 12 GOVERNOR 14

Media Spending Analysis 16 Geographic Analysis 18 NH-01 20

Media Spending Analysis 22 NH-02 24

Media Spending Analysis 26 STATE LEGISLATURE 28

State Senate 28 State House 29 Consequences 29

STATE OVERVIEW

New Hampshire had several offices on the ballot this cycle, and the four most prominent races all featured Democratic incumbents facing substantial challenges. Governor Maggie Hassan was challenged by businessman Walter Havenstein, U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen by former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter by former Congressman Frank Guinta, and Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster by Republican legislator Marilinda Garcia. It should be noted that New Hampshire is the only state that has ever had a completely female congressional delegation, and all three of the Democratic incumbents — as well as the incumbent Democratic governor, also a woman — have been actively supported by EMILY’s List.1

As was the case in most of the races in New Hampshire, the fight between Sen. Shaheen and Scott Brown initially favored the Democrat, with the race looking relatively comfortable up until the final two months of the campaign.2 Shaheen targeted her attacks at Scott Brown’s move to New Hampshire after serving as U.S. Senator in Massachusetts, while Brown focused on national defense issues.3 On a night when many incumbent Democratic Senators experienced tough defeats, Shaheen proved a bright spot for the party; she defeated Scott Brown narrowly, 51.8% to 48.2%, and retained her seat in the U.S. Senate.4

Governor Maggie Hassan, who was first elected two years ago, was expected to have an easy path to reelection as recently as two months ago.56 She was generally well-liked, and unlike Shaheen, did not face an experienced opponent. GOP nominee Walter Havenstein’s largely self-funded campaign gained traction in October, as polling had him running slightly behind Hassan.7 This was not enough, however, and Hassan won by a healthy 5.4% margin, 52.7% to 47.3%.8 .

Both of New Hampshire’s congressional districts were also hotly contested. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, the incumbent from New Hampshire’s first district, faced the stronger challenge from former Rep. Frank Guinta, who she lost to in 2010 but defeated in 2012. Guinta took back NH-01, unseating Shea-Porter narrowly, 51.5% to 48.5%.9 The news was better in the slightly more liberal second district, where Rep. Ann McLane Kuster faced off against Marilinda Garcia. Rep. Kuster defeated Garcia, 55.0% to 45.0%.10

1 Anita Kumar, “Hillary Clinton campaigns for threatened Democrats in NH,” News & Observer, November 2, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 2 “New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 23, 2014. 3 “Fireworks in debate between Jeanne Shaheen, Scott Brown,”Boston Globe, October 21, 2014; Greg Sargent, “Scott Brown: Anyone with Ebola can ‘walk across’ our ‘porous’ border,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 4 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 5 “Approval of Hassan and Legislature Remains High, Most Think NH Is on the Right Track,” WMUR, October 24, 2013. 6 “2014 Governor Races,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 3, 2014. 7 “Gov. Maggie Hassan continues to outraise Republican opponents Hemingway, Havenstein,” Concord Monitor, September 4, 2014. 8 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 9 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 10 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

New Hampshire 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Other Office Democrat Republican Dem % GOP % GOP % Party % Margin US Senate Jeanne Shaheen Scott Brown D 51.8% 48.2% 0.0% 3.6% Governor Maggie Hassan Walt Havenstein D 52.7% 47.3% 0.0% 5.4% NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter Frank Guinta D 48.5% 51.5% 0.0% -3.0% NH-02 Ann Kuster Marilinda Garcia D 55.0% 45.0% 0.0% 10.0% State Senate 11 seats 13 seats R 10 D 14 R 0 I R+1 State House Majority Minority D Minority Majority N/A N/A Sources: “New Hampshire – Summary Vote Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m; Gerry Rayno, “GOP picks up state Senate seat as Avard tops Gilmour,” NewHampshire.com, November 5, 2014; Reid Wilson, “Republican sweep extends to state level,” Washington Post, November 5, 2014.

REGISTRATION OVERVIEW As of November 2012, the last election with available voter registration statistics, undeclared or minor-party voters made up a plurality of voters in New Hampshire, about 42% of all registrants. This outstripped the 28% who are registered Democrats and the 30% who are registered Republicans. The general shape of the electorate has changed only slightly in the last six years, with the share of registered Democrats decreasing from 29.5% in November of 2008 to 27.2% in January of 2014. New Hampshire did not have voter registration numbers for the 2014 election available as of November 7, 2014: the table below contains the most recently available numbers from January.

New Hampshire Voter Registration by Party Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Other % Total Advantage November 2004 228,395 26.7% 267,141 31.2% 360,325 42.1% 855,861 -38,746 November 2006 221,549 26.0% 256,353 30.1% 372,934 43.8% 850,836 -34,804 November 2008 282,421 29.5% 280,507 29.3% 395,600 41.3% 958,528 1,914 November 2010 270,826 28.6% 278,782 29.5% 395,733 41.9% 945,341 -7,956 November 2012 250,358 27.6% 273,675 30.2% 381,924 42.2% 905,957 -23,317 January 2014* 236,774 27.2% 261,846 30.1% 372,009 42.7% 870,629 -25,072 Change Since 2004 8,379 0.5% -5,295 -1.1% 11,684 0.6% 14,768 13,674 Source: “Party Registration/Names on Checklist History,” New Hampshire Secretary of State, accessed November 8, 2014.

* The 2014 New Hampshire Voter Registration statistics are only available as of January 15, 2014. This may make the numbers an inaccurate reflection of the size and composition of the 2014 electorate.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS In presidential years, the turnout rate for the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) in NH is usually upwards of 10% higher than the national rate. In midterm elections, the VEP turnout rate in New Hampshire is still noticeably higher than the national VEP turnout rate. This was true this year, as well, as New Hampshire’s VEP turnout rate was 48.8%, as opposed to a national VEP turnout rate of 36.6%.

New Hampshire VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 992,226 710,970 71.7% 61.6% 2010 1,000,167 456,588 45.7% 41.0% 2012 1,013,741 710,984 70.1% 58.2% 2014* 1,024,678 500,000 48.8% 36.6% Difference from 2010 24,511 43,412 3.1% -4.4% Difference from 2012 10,937 -210,984 -21.3% -21.6% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. * 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final.

ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING Absentee voting by mail requires an excuse in New Hampshire, and the state does not offer early voting. As a result, early or absentee ballots only account for a small portion of ballots cast, typically fewer than 10%. It is hard to run absentee ballot chase programs in the state for other reasons as well, as the town-level collection process of absentee ballots makes personal data unattainable. This town-level collection process also slows down the release of data, and there was no absentee ballot information for the 2014 election available as of November 7.

The percentage of people using absentee ballots has remained relatively constant after accounting for the difference between midterm and presidential years. Numbers were slightly down in 2012 (9.5%) when compared to 2008 (10.0%), while numbers in 2010 (7.0%) were slightly higher than the numbers in 2006 (5.8%).

New Hampshire Method of Vote Since 2008 Total Absentee Absentee Early In-Person In-Person Year Early % Voters Votes % Votes Votes % 2008 719,403 72,264 10.0% 0 0.0% 647,139 90.0% 2010 431,391 30,032 7.0% 0 0.0% 401,359 93.0% 2012 718,700 68,014 9.5% 0 0.0% 650,686 90.5% 2014 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Difference from 2010 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Difference from 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Source: “Elections Division,” New Hampshire Secretary of State, accessed October 31, 2014.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS The state has three media markets, all of which overlap with other states. The largest market is the Boston media market, which reaches 83.4% of the electorate and spans six counties in Southern New Hampshire (Belknap, Cheshire, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham and Strafford). Generally, a successful statewide campaign must win or at least break even in this region to be elected. President Obama received 51.1% of the vote in this region in 2012 while carrying the state, and John Kerry received just 49.9% in 2004 and won the state narrowly. The rest of the state votes slightly more Democratic than the Boston media market, but a Democrat can only afford to lose this region by the narrowest of margins.

The Burlington-Plattsburgh media market is located in the western part of the state, covers 10.4% of New Hampshire’s VAP, and consists of Sullivan and Grafton counties. This region includes Dartmouth University in Hanover, and is friendly to Democrats.

The Portland media market covers Carroll and Coos counties in the northeastern part of the state, and is the smallest in terms of vote share (6.4% in 2008).

ELECTION LAW IMPACTS The Republican-controlled legislature passed a voter ID bill in June 2012, which was vetoed by Governor John Lynch. Both chambers of the legislature then gathered enough votes to override the veto.11 The bill was implemented in two phases, with the legislature slightly loosening some of the initial restrictions in 2013.12 Voters are now required to present driver's licenses, state-issued non- driver's identification cards, passports, or student IDs. It is difficult to discern whether this had any effect on turnout in 2014, which was slightly higher than in the 2010 cycle.13

EXIT POLLING

RACE

Although New Hampshire does have exit polling, historically around 94% of the electorate is white, and the sample size for all other races is insufficient to measure in exit polling. In fact, New Hampshire is one of the three least diverse states in the union, according to the Census Bureau.14

11 Ted Siefer, “Legislature overrides Lynch veto on voter ID bill,” The Union Leader, June 27, 2012. 12 Ben Leubsdorf, “Legislature okays changes to N.H.’s voter ID law despite opposition from conservatives,” Concord Monitor, June 26, 2013. 13 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 14 “Census Finds Least Diverse Part of Nation,” ABC News, April 10, 2014.

New Hampshire Performance and Vote Share by Race Obama Lynch Shaheen Hodes Lynch Obama Hassan Shaheen Hassan Race 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Race (Exit Polls) White 54% 71% 52% 37% 53% 51% 54% 51% 52% African American N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Hispanic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls) White 94% 95% 95% 94% 94% 93% 93% 94% 94% African American 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% Hispanic 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Asian 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Sources: “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,“ CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014.

GENDER

Historically, the electorate is slightly more female than male (52%-48% in 2008 and in 2012). Going back to 2008, excluding the 2014 election, women generally voted for Democratic candidates at a rate of about 11.9 points higher than men. Significantly, the gender gap was much more pronounced for both Hassan and Shaheen in this election, with a difference of 15 points. Hassan replicated her 2012 support among women in this election, but her support among men dropped by four points. Shaheen, however, had a similar gender gap to when she was elected in 2008.

New Hampshire Performance and Vote Share by Gender Obama Lynch Shaheen Hodes Lynch Obama Hassan Shaheen Hassan Gender 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 61% 76% 60% 43% 59% 58% 60% 59% 60% Men 49% 66% 45% 31% 47% 47% 49% 44% 45% Vote Share by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 52% 52% 52% 51% 51% 52% 52% 52% 51% Men 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49% Sources: “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,“ CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014.

PARTISANSHIP (SELF-ID)

As noted above, the largest chunk of New Hampshire’s electorate is not affiliated with a party. In recent history, the candidate who wins the Independent vote has won the election, as there are now relatively equal numbers of self-identified Republicans and Democrats.

In 2014, this trend largely held. Shaheen and Hassan both narrowly carried Independents. The share of self-identified Independents rose slightly in 2014, making up for a correspondingly small drop in the number of self-identified Democrats. The two candidates performed nearly identically, with Hassan receiving slightly more support among Republicans.

New Hampshire Performance and Vote Share by Party ID Obama Lynch Shaheen Hodes Lynch Obama Hassan Shaheen Hassan Party ID 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 92% 95% 91% 79% 91% 96% 95% 96% 96% Republican 11% 31% 8% 3% 18% 6% 9% 9% 12% Independent 59% 79% 55% 35% 53% 52% 56% 51% 52% Share of Vote by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 29% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 27% Republican 27% 27% 27% 30% 30% 27% 27% 27% 27% Independent 45% 44% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 45% 45% Sources: “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,“ CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014.

AGE

Younger voters historically have not turned out at high rates during midterm elections, with turnout for voters age 18-29 just slightly above 10% in the last two midterms. Youth voters support Democrats in high numbers, which held this election as Shaheen and Hassan won voters ages 18- 29 with 58% and 60% of the vote, respectively. Shaheen and Hassan also carried every other age cohort in the exit polls.

New Hampshire Performance and Vote Share by Age Obama Lynch Shaheen Hodes Lynch Obama Hassan Shaheen Hassan Age 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 61% 78% 57% 51% 62% 62% 64% 58% 60% 30–44 51% 68% 50% 32% 49% 48% 50% 52% 53% 45–64 56% 72% 53% 38% 53% 49% 53% 50% 51% 65+ 56% 69% 52% 33% 53% 55% 58% 52% 53% Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 18% 17% 17% 12% 12% 19% 18% 11% 11% 30–44 26% 26% 26% 20% 20% 23% 23% 18% 18% 45–64 42% 43% 43% 50% 50% 43% 44% 50% 50% 65+ 14% 14% 14% 19% 19% 15% 15% 20% 21% Sources: “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,“ CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “New Hampshire President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “New Hampshire Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014; “New Hampshire Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014.

U.S. SENATE

Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2008, defeating Republican Senator John Sununu. Shaheen had previously served as a three-term governor of the state and had lost to Sununu in the 2002 New Hampshire senatorial election.15 The GOP had some trouble recruiting a candidate, and state leaders made no secret of their efforts to recruit former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown to the race.16 Brown sold his Massachusetts home and moved to New Hampshire in December of 2013, and he officially entered the race in April 2014.17 Shaheen ran uncontested for the Democratic nomination, and Scott Brown handily defeated nine other candidates to win the Republican primary. 1819

Until September, all polls showed Shaheen with a sizable lead,20 and even as the polls began tightening in October, many pundits questioned whether Scott Brown could make up the gap. Early in the race, pro-business groups like U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Brown and NARAL endorsing Shaheen.21 As Scott began gaining ground, some pundits attributed this shift to concerns about national security.22 Brown relied on rhetoric on national security to narrow the race, to the point of arguing that Ebola-carrying terrorists may cross the border in order to infect Americans.23 Shaheen, meanwhile, hammered away at Brown for switching states after losing the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race to Elizabeth Warren, saying, “I don’t think New Hampshire is a consolation prize.”24

15 Stephanie Salmon, “Fact Sheet: Jeanne Shaheen Takes on John Sununu for New Hampshire's Senate Seat,” US News and World Report, November 3, 2008. 16 Michelle Cottle, “Sen. Bob Smith: The Thing That Wouldn’t Leave,” The Daily Beast, December 4, 2013. 17 “Brown to officially enter Senate race in New Hampshire on Thursday,” Fox News, April 7, 2014. 18 “Could Scott Brown Get 'primaried Out' of US Senate Race?,” NECN, June 27, 2014. 19 “2014 United States Senate - Republican Primary,” New Hampshire Secretary of State, accessed October 23, 2014. 20 “New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 23, 2014. 21 “Brown, Shaheen pick up more endorsements,” Concord Monitor, September 30, 2014. 22 Casey McDermott, “Can terror politics help Scott Brown win NH Senate race?,” The Hill, September 24, 2014. 23 Greg Sargent, “Scott Brown: Anyone with Ebola can ‘walk across’ our ‘porous’ border,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 24 “Fireworks in debate between Jeanne Shaheen, Scott Brown,” Boston Globe, October 21, 2014.

As of mid-October, the Shaheen campaign had substantially outraised Brown’s, with her $14,654,878 nearly doubling Brown’s $7,362,842, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.25 Shaheen had 13 regional offices distributed throughout the state; equivalent numbers for Brown are unavailable.26 Both the National Education Association and EMILY’s List were actively involved in the election; both participated in mail campaigns for Senator Shaheen.27

In early October, most polls showed Shaheen with a sizeable lead, with a CBS/New York Times poll showing the Democrat up by seven points.28 Prior to that, nearly all polls showed Brown trailing by at least five and sometimes more than 10 points. In October, however, the polls tightened noticeably, with all polls showing the race within the margin of error, and two New England College polls showing Brown with a slight lead. These polls were generally accurate, slightly favoring Shaheen in what was ultimately a narrow victory for her.

New Hampshire Senate 2014 Public Polling

25 “New Hampshire Senate Race,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed November 6, 2014. The numbers referenced in the article are the most recent ones released as of November 6, 2014 at 7:00 p.m. 26 “Jeanne Shaheen Regional Field Offices,” Jeanne Shaheen US Senate, accessed November 4, 2014. 27 “WOMEN VOTE! Announces Program To Persuade And Turn Out Women Voters In New Hampshire Program Will Educate Women Voters About Scott Brown’s Positions On Equal Pay And Women’s Health,” EMILY’s List, October 9, 2014. 28 “New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 23, 2014.

New Hampshire Senate Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Shaheen % Brown %

PPP (D) 11/1-11/3 1690 LV 50% 48% New England College 10/31-11/1 1526 LV 48% 49% WMUR/UNH 10/29-11/2 757 LV 49% 48% Rasmussen Reports 10/29-10/30 940 LV 52% 45% ARG 10/27-10/29 600 LV 49% 49% Vox Populi (R) 10/27-10/28 638 LV 45% 49% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 48.8% 48.0% Final Results N/A N/A 51.8% 48.2% Difference N/A N/A 3.0% 0.2% Source: “New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014.

Eight Senate races nationwide were generally considered toss ups, and the Democrats lost seven of them: the one Democratic victory came in New Hampshire.29 Jeanne Shaheen defeated Scott Brown narrowly, 51.8% to 48.2%, and retained her seat in the U.S. Senate.

New Hampshire Senate 2014 Results Registered Total Shaheen Other Other Shaheen % Brown Votes Brown % Voters Voters Votes Votes % N/A 473,883 245,439 51.8% 228,444 48.2% 0 0.0% Source: “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign outspent Scott Brown’s campaign by a substantial amount; Shaheen spent an estimated $3,583,410 on broadcast TV ads, while Brown spent an estimated $1,879,100. Scott Brown was the first candidate to go on the air, running his first ad in January of 2014. Brown was involved earlier due to his contested primary, and he was the first Republican on the air in that contest. Shaheen waited several months to run her first ad, until May of 2014; however, Senate Majority PAC went on the air in January 2014.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was also a major player in New Hampshire, spending an estimated $1,235,460, while the Senate Majority PAC spent an estimated $624,270. The National Republican Senatorial Committee was less heavily invested than the DSCC, spending $394,520 in New Hampshire.

The largest outside spender was American Crossroads, which spent an estimated $1,681,260 on ads on during the 2014 election cycle. The second-largest outside spending force was the Ending Spending Action Fund, which supported Scott Brown by spending an estimated $991,570 on advertisements. Other major spenders included environmental groups, such as the NextGen Climate

29 “Battle for the Senate,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014.

Action Committee and League of Conservation Voters, which spent a combined $122,320 on behalf of Jeanne Shaheen.

New Hampshire Senate Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, September 10 – November 4, 2014

New Hampshire Senate Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, September 10 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

One of the most common issues for advertisements in the New Hampshire Senate race, and one of the few issues that saw large spending totals from both sides, was healthcare.30 Republicans spent an estimated $2,759,400 on ads related to healthcare, while Democrats spent $2,626,960. However, while Republican ads concentrated specifically on Obamacare, Shaheen’s healthcare ads tended to be broader and focused more on her efforts to strengthen healthcare for veterans.31

Early in 2014, Americans for Prosperity ran an ad that was typical of most conservative ads, criticizing Obamacare for its alleged high costs, in an attempt to tie Shaheen to President Obama.32 The largest ad buy related to healthcare was American Crossroads’ “Spelling Bee” ad, in which a little girl spells Shaheen’s name as “Obama” after the moderator discusses all the times she voted with Obama.33 The ad is nearly identical to one run in Arkansas.34

Energy was another major issue in the Senate race, with most of the related broadcast TV advertisements running on behalf of Senator Shaheen.35 Ads generally used Scott Brown’s energy industry ties to insinuate that the Massachusetts transplant was attempting to exploit the state.36 The ads also played on the New Hampshire electorate’s general concerns about the state’s beautiful environment. 37

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 37% 23% 31% Energy/Environment 36% 2% 22% Health Care 13% 27% 19% Immigration 0% 9% 4% Other 14% 38% 24% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS New Hampshire’s regional leans are noticeably less pronounced than most states, and that held in this election: while Shaheen won by just 2.6 points, she didn’t draw less than 45% of the vote in any county. Her support was distributed relatively evenly; she won three of the six Boston-market counties while sweeping the state’s four remaining counties.38

For successful New Hampshire Democrats, the path to victory is straightforward: Democrats must win the Boston media market. Shaheen managed to eke out a win there, 50.5% to 49.5%. She also performed well in the Portland market, winning 54.9% of the vote, and in the Burlington-Plattsburgh media market, she won 60.0% of the vote. Her performance in all of these markets was similar to

30 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 31 “Breakthrough,” Youtube, July 18, 2014. 32 Seth McLaughlin, “Americans for Prosperity ad attacks N.H. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s Obamacare vote,” Washington Times, April 23, 2014. 33 “American Crossroads: "Spelling Bee" NH,” Youtube, October 14, 2014. 34 “American Crossroads: "Spelling Bee" AR,” Youtube, June 3, 2014. 35 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 36 “Selling Out,” Youtube, September 10, 2014 37 “"Tap" - New Hampshire,” Youtube, August 21, 2014. 38 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

fellow statewide Democrat Maggie Hassan, although she slightly underperformed Hassan in the Boston media market.39

Shaheen 2014 Performance by County

39 “New Hampshire – Summary Vote Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

GOVERNOR

New Hampshire is one of two states, along with Vermont, that has gubernatorial elections every two years; the governor is not term-limited.40 According to Cook Political Report, the state of New Hampshire has a PVI of D+1, and the race was rated as “Lean Democrat” going into the election.41 Incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan was first elected to the office in 2012, succeeding four-term Democrat John Lynch after defeating Republican Ovide Lamontage.4243 Hassan cruised through the Democratic primary, receiving 94.6% of the vote. Businessman Walt Havenstein won the GOP nomination by defeating Andrew Hemingway in the GOP primary, 55% to 37%.44 Havenstein was the only Republican primary candidate to air television ads and massively outspent Hemingway in general.4546

Going into the 2014 election cycle, voters generally approved of Hassan’s job performance in her first term, with 57% of New Hampshire citizens rating her as “favorable” and only 14% rating her performance as “unfavorable.”47 More recent fundraising totals for the race have not been released, but as of September 3, Hassan had a fundraising edge over her opponents, raising $2.18 million. While Havenstein had raised slightly less, about $2 million, about 75% came from loans he made to the campaign himself, and outside of those loans, his fundraising has been largely dwarfed by Hassan.48 Havenstein’s self-funding was one of the major reasons he emerged over the underfunded Hemingway in the September primary.

Hassan was backed by EMILY’s List, with the group supporting her campaign through research efforts.49 There was minimal involvement by outside groups otherwise, with only the Live Free PAC, an affiliate of the Republican Governors Association, running broadcast advertisements as an outside group.5051

The race initially looked to be safe for Democrats, with Real Clear Politics rating it as safe as late as September 16.52 The race tightened rather quickly, with Hassan’s double-digit lead in polling vanishing in the last few weeks.53 Still, nearly all of the final polls showed Hassan with a narrow lead averaging about 3.5%, a number she slightly over-performed in the general election.54

40 “State Constituion-Executive Power,” New Hampshire Government, accessed November 1, 2014. 41 “GOVERNORS: MAPS,” Cook Political Report, accessed November 1, 2014. 42 “Hassan declared winner in governor's race,” WMUR, November 7, 2012. 43 Kevin Landrigan, “Lynch will not seek fifth term as New Hampshire governor,” Nashua Telegraph, September 16, 2011. 44 “Full 2014 primary election results in New Hampshire,” WMUR, September 9, 2014. 45 CMAG data, accessed November 2, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 46 Ryan Lessard, “Walt Havenstein's Strengths In General Election May Be Weaknesses In Primary,” NPR New Hampshire, September 5, 2014. 47 “Approval of Hassan and Legislature Remains High, Most Think NH Is on the Right Track,” WMUR, October 24, 2013. 48 “Gov. Maggie Hassan continues to outraise Republican opponents Hemingway, Havenstein,” Concord Monitor, September 4, 2014. 49 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 50 “Republican Governors Association,” The Center for Public Integrity, accessed November 3, 2014. 51 CMAG data, accessed October 25, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 52 “2014 Governor Races,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 3, 2014. 53 “N.H. Governor - Havenstein vs. Hassan,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 3, 2014. 54 “N.H. Governor - Havenstein vs. Hassan,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 3, 2014.

New Hampshire Governor 2014 Public Polling

New Hampshire Governor Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Hassan % Havenstein %

PPP (D) 11/1-11/3 1690 LV 51% 46% New England College 10/31-11/1 1526 LV 51% 44% WMUR/UNH 10/29-11/2 757 LV 50% 49% Rasmussen Reports 10/29-10/30 940 LV 51% 42% ARG 10/27-10/29 600 LV 48% 46% Vox Populi (R) 10/27-10/28 638 LV 44% 47% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 49.2% 45.7% Final Results N/A N/A 52.7% 47.3% Difference N/A N/A 3.5% 1.6% Source: “New Hampshire Governor - Havenstein vs. Hassan,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014.

Governor Maggie Hassan will remain in office for another two years, as she defeated Walt Havenstein 52.7% to 47.3%, slightly outperforming Senator Shaheen statewide.

New Hampshire Governor 2014 Results Registered Total Hassan Havenstein Havenstein Other Hassan % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes % Votes N/A 475,461 250,722 52.7% 224,739 47.3% 0 0.0% Source: “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

Due to the primary, Walter Havenstein was the first candidate on the air self-funding advertisements in June 2014. Although he did have a substantial primary opponent in Andrew Hemingway, Havenstein was the only Republican to air TV advertisements, which undoubtedly played a role in his eventual primary victory.

In the general election, Havenstein and the Republican Governors Association combined had a significant TV advantage over Hassan. Havenstein’s campaign ran 646 spots at an estimated cost of $285,770, and the RGA’s Live Free or Die PAC, which swamped all advertising, ran a total of 767 spots at an estimated cost of $1,191,760. The PAC ran three distinct ads hammering away at Hassan’s record.

Hassan’s campaign was limited to just 1,047 spots for an estimated cost of $481,320.55

New Hampshire Governor Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, September 10 – November 4, 2014

New Hampshire Governor Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, September 10 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

The major issues in the race were economic and/or budgetary, with messages related to the economy composing 52% percent of the issues discussed in ads. The GOP, including ads from the RGA, largely concentrated on allegations that Hassan was a tax-hiking and spendthrift leader, criticizing her for signing onto a gas tax increase and for her support for casinos.56 Many of these attacks were critical of Hassan’s support of largely bipartisan initiatives (such as the gas tax bill, which was introduced by a Republican).57

Hassan attacked Havenstein’s business record, calling him “a failed CEO” in multiple ads. Havenstein was CEO of SAIC, a major defense company that was accused of misconduct during his tenure.58 The charges related to an automated payroll system in NYC that defrauded taxpayers, and Hassan tied that charge directly to Havenstein.59

56 CMAG data, accessed October 25, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 57 John DiStaso, “Hassan: RGA’s new TV ad full of ‘tired attacks’,” NH Journal, October 22, 2014. 58 Kathleen Ronayne, “Democrats hit Havenstein for tenure at company charged with fraud,” June 10, 2014. 59 CMAG data, accessed October 25, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 48% 55% 52% Healthcare 6% 12% 9% Energy/Environment 0% 10% 5% Education 8% 0% 4% Other 38% 23% 30% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS New Hampshire’s regional leans are noticeably less pronounced than most states, and that held in this election. While the race was close, Hassan did not draw less than 46% in any of New Hampshire’s counties. Her biggest county victories were by a 61%-39% margin in the northern New Hampshire counties of Grafton and Coos. She drew support relatively evenly, winning in Boston- market counties like Strafford as well as Coos County, which contains New Hampshire’s Canadian border.60

For New Hampshire Democrats, the path to victory is simple: Democrats must win in the Boston media market. Hassan won the market with 52.0% of the vote, slightly lower than her performance statewide. Hassan also won the Burlington-Plattsburgh media market with 59.3% of the vote, and she won the Portland media market with 55.0% of the vote. 61

60 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 61 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

Hassan 2014 Performance by County

NH-01

Incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter was first elected to Congress in 2006; she lost her 2010 re- election campaign to Republican Frank Guinta, and then regained her seat in 2012 by defeating Guinta. NH-01, which is in the Eastern part of the state, was rated as a “Toss Up” (as of November 3) with a PVI of R+1.62 The race was long expected to be competitive; in 2013, Roll Call called Shea- Porter one of the “Ten Most Vulnerable” incumbents in Congress.63 Her opponent, for the third time, will be Frank Guinta, who defeated challenger Dan Innis on the September 9 Republican primary.64

Guinta faced a substantial primary challenge from Dan Innis, the Dean of the University of New Hampshire’s business school. Innis, who focused on a pro-business message, received 41% of the vote in the primary to Guinta’s 49%.65

After the primary, Guinta raised slightly less than Shea-Porter, but had more cash on hand as of September 30. Guinta raised $386,000 in the last quarter and had $373,000 in cash on hand, while Shea-Porter raised $399,000 but only had $135,000.66 Guinta largely imitated the larger Republican strategy of tying Shea-Porter to Obama, hammering away at her vote for the Affordable Care Act while in Congress.67

Conflicts that colored previous contests between the two, such as a scandal involving Guinta’s “forgotten” bank account, played a role in this election as well.68 Guinta has followed the lead of many Republican campaigns this cycle, attempting to tie Shea-Porter’s record to Obama. EMILY’s List was the only outside progressive group involved in the race, engaging in both a research campaign and a mail campaign with their WOMEN VOTE! Initiative. 69

Polling in the race was slightly erratic, with some polls showing Shea-Porter up by as much as 17 points and others showing Guinta up by 10, with polls conducted in the same month by the same group varying by as much as 13 points. Outlets have argued this variance is due to the small sample size of the polls.70 The final polls of the election slightly favored Guinta, however, and ultimately underestimated the margin by which Guinta would win.

62 “HOUSE: MAPS,” The Cook Political Report, accessed October 23, 2014. 63 “Roll Call's 10 Most Vulnerable House Members Revealed,” Roll Call, November 4, 2013. 64 “New Hampshire - Summary Vote Results,” Associated Press, September 12, 2014. 65 “Dan Innis Announcement,” Youtube, October 8, 2013. 66 “Shea-Porter leads Guinta in quarterly fundraising,” Associated Press, October 16, 2014. The numbers referenced in the article are the most recent ones available as of November 6, 2014 at 5 p.m. 67 “Guinta, Shea-Porter debate health care, economy,” Washington Times, October 21, 2014. 68 James Pindell, “Four years later, DCCC running TV ads on Guinta 'mystery money',” WMUR, September 30, 2014. 69 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 70 “New Hampshire polls show mostly harmless noise,” DailyKos, October 9, 2014; “N.H. 1st District - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 23, 2014.

NH-01 2014 Public Polling

NH-01 Polling Accuracy Shea-Porter Pollster Dates Sample Guinta % % WMUR/UNH 10/29-11/2 405 LV 49% 50% New England College 10/31-11/1 778 LV 43% 52% New England College 10/24-10/24 556 LV 43% 49% WMUR/UNH 10/22-10/26 261 LV 44% 40% New England College 10/16-10/16 461 LV 46% 47% Umass Amherst/WBZ 10/10-10/15 160 LV 54% 37% Polling Average N/A N/A 47% 46% Final Results N/A N/A 49% 52% Difference N/A N/A 2% 6% Source: “N.H. 1st District – Guinta vs Shea-Porter,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 4, 2014.

The GOP’s biggest victory in New Hampshire came in NH-01, where Frank Guinta avenged his 2012 loss by defeating Carol Shea-Porter 51.5% to 48.5%. The race was the narrowest of the four major New Hampshire elections.

NH-01 2014 Results Registered Total Shea-Porter Shea-Porter Guinta Other Other Guinta % Voters Voters Votes % Votes Votes % N/A 232,766 112,842 48.5% 119,924 51.5% 0 0.0% Sources: “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

Neither candidate started running their own ads until the last few months of the election, with Guinta going on the air in August 2014 and Shea-Porter’s first ad running in September 2014. Guinta spent an estimated total of $107,450 on his ads during the campaign, with a spot count of 262, while Shea- Porter spent an estimated $343,760 on a spot count of 570. The first group on the air was Americans for Prosperity, which aired 5,140 ads in February 2014.71

There was a noticeable amount of outside spending on the election, with the largest amount, $731,370, coming from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Americans for Responsible Solutions, a progressive anti-gun violence group, was the second-largest spender, spending an estimated $289,500 on campaign advertisements.

NH-01 Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, September 10 – November 4, 2014

NH-01 Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, September 10 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

Guinta’s campaign messaging largely took its cues from most GOP campaigns running across the country and attempted to tie Carol Shea-Porter’s voting record to President Obama and other national Democrats. For example, one ad run on behalf of Guinta by the NRCC criticized Shea- Porter for voting “with Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats 95% of the time.”72 Shea-Porter’s vote for Obamacare was mentioned often in Republican ads, as werebroader concerns about budgetary issues like the national debt.

Social issues, particularly abortion, also played a role in the messaging in NH-01, specifically in the Democratic messaging. One of the ads Shea-Porter ran argued that Guinta’s belief that a woman should not have access to abortion even if her life were in danger betrayed a “1950s mindset”; it also criticized him for not supporting equal pay legislation.73

72 Louis Jacobson, “NRCC ad says Carol Shea-Porter is a partisan Democrat, Frank Guinta is ‘independent’,” Politifact, October 24, 2014. 73 “Fifties,” Youtube, October 15, 2014.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 24% 44% 38% Healthcare 5% 32% 24% Social Issues 18% 4% 8% Energy/Environment 11% 1% 4% Other 42% 19% 26% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. NH-02

Incumbent Democrat Anne McLane Kuster was first elected in 2012, defeating Rep. Charlie Bass in a rematch of the 2010 election in NH-02.74 Her opponent, Marilinda Garcia, was first elected to New Hampshire’s legislature eight years ago. Garcia, who at 31 is one of the youngest congressional candidates this cycle, handily won the Republican primary against Gary Lambert and Jim Lawrence. Although NH-02 was originally rated as a “Lean Democrat” seat by Cook PVI and is the more left- leaning of New Hampshire’s two districts, the race was still expected to be a close one.

Kuster held a strong fundraising advantage over Garcia throughout much of the race, having raised $3,314,902 as compared to Garcia’s $954,720.75 Outside spending also favored Kuster, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee easily outspending other outside groups by investing $3,440,977 in the race.76 Conservatives had very high praise for Garcia, highlighting the 31-year-old Latina’s cultural background and what some people have called her “arch-conservative” viewpoints. 7778 Those conservative bona fides have occasionally come back to haunt Garcia; her statements on gay marriage were not only criticized for being out of touch with her relatively moderate district, but they were also accused of potentially being plagiarized.7980 She also mentioned that she would theoretically support the impeachment of Barack Obama, a fact Democrats used to portray her as out-of-touch with the mainstream.

EMILY’s List was the major outside group involved in the race, engaging in both a research campaign and a mail campaign with their WOMEN VOTE! Initiative. 81

Much like in New Hampshire’s first district, the polling in NH-02 was slightly erratic, due to less reliable pollsters and smaller samples of voters82 Most of the recent polling has been conducted by New England College, which has shown Kuster with a variable lead. Polling ultimately slightly underestimated Kuster’s victory, although the final polling was also the most accurate.

74 “New Hampshire 2nd District - Bass vs. Kuster,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 25, 2014. 75 “New Hampshire Congressional Races in 2014,” Open Secrets, accessed November 5, 2014. 76 “New Hampshire District 02 Race,” Open Secrets, accessed October 25, 2014. 77 “I Had Donuts With the Future and Her Name is Marilinda Garcia,” Washington Free Beacon, accessed October 25, 2014. 78 “In N.H., Marilinda Garcia Offers Test for New-Look GOP,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 25, 2014. 79 “Whoops: Did a New Hampshire Congressional Candidate Plagiarize a Speech on Gay Marriage?,” Boston Globe, October 23, 2014. 80 Jordan Fabian & Geneva Sands, “Marilinda Garcia could save the GOP — but first she has to win,” Fusion, October 31, 2014. 81 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 82 “New Hampshire 2nd District - Garcia vs. Kuster,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 26, 2014.

NH-02 2014 Public Polling

NH-02 Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Kuster % Garcia %

WMUR/UNH 10/29-11/2 352 LV 53% 46% New England College 10/31-11/1 748 LV 53% 42% WMUR/UNH 10/22-10/26 294 LV 53% 30% New England College 10/24-10/24 576 LV 49% 42% New England College 10/16-10/16 460 LV 49% 43% Umass Amherst/WBZ 10/10-10/15 162 LV 43% 48% Polling Average N/A N/A 51% 42% Final Results N/A N/A 55% 45% Difference N/A N/A 4% 3% Sources: “N.H 2nd District: Garcia vs. Kuster,” ,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 4, 2014.

In the more liberal of New Hampshire’s two districts, Ann Kuster defeated Marilinda Garcia by 10 points, 55.0% to 45.0%.

NH-02 2014 Results Registered Total Garcia Other Kuster Votes Kuster % Garcia % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes N/A 236,242 129,944 55.0% 106,298 45.0% 0 0.0% Sources: “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.

Annie Kuster has had a noticeably larger presence on broadcast media than Garcia, running 1,121 spots at an estimated cost of $750,350: Garcia has only ran 267 spots at an estimated $127,000. Kuster hammered away at Garcia’s social policies in several ads, including one, entitled “Concerns,” that criticized Garcia for supporting not only a complete ban on abortion, but arguing for the imprisonment of doctors who performed the procedure.83 Garcia, while not running many ads, used much of her ad time to connect Kuster to Obama. As with many other GOP candidates, Garcia’s ads have used visual connections between Obama and her opponent.84

The biggest progressive spender in NH-02 was the DCCC, which outspent both campaigns in the race. Most of its ads, on which the committee spent an estimated total of $1,672,890, were attacks on Garcia’s “Tea Party” agenda. The DCCC emphasized Garcia’s far-right opinions on social issues like abortion.85

While the Club for Growth was one of the biggest GOP-aligned outside spender on broadcast TV ads, spending an estimated $57,170, its biggest buy actually was meant to criticize Garcia’s primary opponent.86

NH-02 Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, September 10 – November 4, 2014

83 “Annie Kuster's TV ad, "Concerns.",” Youtube, September 28, 2014. 84 “Trust,” Youtube, September 16, 2014. 85 “Doctor” Youtube, September 30, 2014. 86 “Laughable" (NH-02),” Youtube, August 26, 2014.

NH-02 Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, September 10-November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

Although it was not the leading issue overall, the biggest issue in ads run by Democrats concerned social issues. Democratic campaigns and committees spent an estimated $3,759,840 on ads addressing social issues; Republicans did not run a single ad on the topic. Garcia is staunchly and unapologetically pro-life, and Kuster leapt on Garcia’s comments as a way to portray her as a “Tea Party” radical out of touch with the moderate district.

For Republicans, and to a lesser degree for the Democrats, spending on healthcare issues was also relatively high. Republicans spent an estimated $1,763,980, while Democrats spent an estimated $1,158,040 on ads related to healthcare. Republican groups largely used ads about “Obamacare” not only to tap into dissatisfaction with the program itself, but also in the context of broader ads that tied Ann McLane Kuster to President Obama.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 28% 31% 29% Healthcare 12% 35% 22% Social Issues 36% 0% 21% Education 13% 1% 8% Other 11% 32% 26% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

STATE LEGISLATURE

Control of the New Hampshire state legislature, or more properly the General Court of New Hampshire, was split going into the 2014 election, with Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the state House. The Republican majority in the state Senate was narrow, with the GOP holding 13 seats to the Democrats’ 11. In the state House, the Democrats held 213 of the chamber’s 400 seats. On Election Day Republicans managed to take over the state House and added one seat to their Senate margin.87

STATE SENATE All state Senators were up for re-election in 2014, with four open seats. The Senate has repeatedly switched hands in the last decade, with Democrats last controlling it from 2007-2010. The Republicans’ current majority is narrow, at 13 to Democrats’ 11. The worst projections going into the elections had Republicans gaining a 2/3rds supermajority of the Senate, although other outlets noted that in some vulnerable seats, the GOP failed to offer a plausible candidate. 88 Of the three most hotly-contested races, of particular interest was the ninth district. Republican incumbent Andy Sanborn barely defeated opponent Lee Nyquist in 2012, and while Republicans had hoped 2014 would be easier for Nyquist, reported dissatisfaction among the Republican ranks make this one to watch.89

Unfortunately, not only did Nyquist retain his seat, but southern New Hampshire Democrat Peggy Gilmour lost in the District 12 race to former New Hampshire House member Kevin Avard. This meant the Republican margin in the chamber grew slightly, to 14-10.90

Historical Partisanship of New Hampshire State Senate

87 Gerry Rayno, “GOP picks up state Senate seat as Avard tops Gilmour,” NewHampshire.com, November 5, 2014. 88 “State of the Race: Majority control of the State Senate,” WMUR, October 21, 2014. 89 “State of the Race: Majority control of the State Senate,” WMUR, October 21, 2014. 90 Gerry Rayno, “GOP picks up state Senate seat as Avard tops Gilmour,” NewHampshire.com, November 5, 2014.

STATE HOUSE The state House is difficult to predict, due primarily to its massive size (400 representatives spread over 209 districts). The Democrats went into the 2014 election controlling the state House by a 220- 179 margin.91 Historically, shifts in the lower chamber can be substantial: in the 2006 election, Democrats came back from a 98-seat margin to take over the House.92 While the GOP held the House by a staggering 190 vote margin after the 2010 election, the Democrats took back the lower chamber in 2012.93

In a GOP wave, however, it became clear that the New Hampshire House would swing back, giving Republicans control of both chambers of the legislature. The exact margin of their House majority is unknown as of November 7.94

Historical Partisanship of New Hampshire State House

CONSEQUENCES Although New Hampshire did return former Representative Frank Guinta to Congress this election, the biggest electoral effects of 2014 may be felt in the state legislature. The GOP took over the state House and retained the Senate, and with full control of the legislature they may try to push through several conservative measures. However, Democrat Maggie Hassan remains governor, and it is unlikely that Republicans will have enough votes to override her vetoes.

In 2011, the Republicans held a majority in the legislature, and one of their first priorities was to pass a “right to work” bill. The bill passed, but the legislature was unable to override Democratic Governor John Lynch’s veto.95 In 2012, with Democrats controlling the House and a smaller Republican margin in the Senate, right to work did not make it out of the legislature, failing in both houses.96 It is

91 “2014 State and Legislative Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, accessed November 1, 2014. 92 Chris Camire, “Blue Hampshire,” Lowell Sun, April 1, 2007. 93 “2013 State and Legislative Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, accessed November 1, 2014. 94 Reid Wilson, “Republican sweep extends to state level,” Washington Post, November 5, 2014; Kathleen Ronayne, “Republicans to control New Hampshire Legislature,” Associated Press, November 5, 2014. 95 “Senate Kills Latest 'Right-To-Work' Bill,” NPR New Hampshire, January 30, 2014. 96 “Senate Kills Latest 'Right-To-Work' Bill,” NPR New Hampshire, January 30, 2014.; Ben Leubsdorf, “N.H. House kills latest right- to-work legislation on 212-141 vote,” Concord Monitor, February 14, 2013.

not immediately clear that right to work would even be able to make it out of the Senate, as the two Republicans who opposed right to work won re-election in 2014.97 The debates over right to work in the coming sessions will probably echo other right-wing policy disputes in New Hampshire, as a strongly conservative legislature will attempt to pass other conservative legislation that Governor Hassan will likely veto.98

97 Kevin Landrigan, “NH Senate kills right-to-work bill,” Nashua Telegraph, January 31, 2014 98 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m.