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2014 Post-Election Analysis: New Hampshire

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2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: NEW HAMPSHIRE TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 3 Turnout Analysis 3 Absentee/Early Voting 4 Regional Analysis 4 Election Law Impacts 5 Exit Polling 5 U.S. SENATE 8 Media Spending Analysis 10 Geographic Analysis 12 GOVERNOR 14 Media Spending Analysis 16 Geographic Analysis 18 NH-01 20 Media Spending Analysis 22 NH-02 24 Media Spending Analysis 26 STATE LEGISLATURE 28 State Senate 28 State House 29 Consequences 29 STATE OVERVIEW New Hampshire had several offices on the ballot this cycle, and the four most prominent races all featured Democratic incumbents facing substantial challenges. Governor Maggie Hassan was challenged by businessman Walter Havenstein, U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen by former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter by former Congressman Frank Guinta, and Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster by Republican legislator Marilinda Garcia. It should be noted that New Hampshire is the only state that has ever had a completely female congressional delegation, and all three of the Democratic incumbents — as well as the incumbent Democratic governor, also a woman — have been actively supported by EMILY’s List.1 As was the case in most of the races in New Hampshire, the fight between Sen. Shaheen and Scott Brown initially favored the Democrat, with the race looking relatively comfortable up until the final two months of the campaign.2 Shaheen targeted her attacks at Scott Brown’s move to New Hampshire after serving as U.S. Senator in Massachusetts, while Brown focused on national defense issues.3 On a night when many incumbent Democratic Senators experienced tough defeats, Shaheen proved a bright spot for the party; she defeated Scott Brown narrowly, 51.8% to 48.2%, and retained her seat in the U.S. Senate.4 Governor Maggie Hassan, who was first elected two years ago, was expected to have an easy path to reelection as recently as two months ago.56 She was generally well-liked, and unlike Shaheen, did not face an experienced opponent. GOP nominee Walter Havenstein’s largely self-funded campaign gained traction in October, as polling had him running slightly behind Hassan.7 This was not enough, however, and Hassan won by a healthy 5.4% margin, 52.7% to 47.3%.8 . Both of New Hampshire’s congressional districts were also hotly contested. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, the incumbent from New Hampshire’s first district, faced the stronger challenge from former Rep. Frank Guinta, who she lost to in 2010 but defeated in 2012. Guinta took back NH-01, unseating Shea-Porter narrowly, 51.5% to 48.5%.9 The news was better in the slightly more liberal second district, where Rep. Ann McLane Kuster faced off against Marilinda Garcia. Rep. Kuster defeated Garcia, 55.0% to 45.0%.10 1 Anita Kumar, “Hillary Clinton campaigns for threatened Democrats in NH,” News & Observer, November 2, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 2 “New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 23, 2014. 3 “Fireworks in debate between Jeanne Shaheen, Scott Brown,”Boston Globe, October 21, 2014; Greg Sargent, “Scott Brown: Anyone with Ebola can ‘walk across’ our ‘porous’ border,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 4 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 5 “Approval of Hassan and Legislature Remains High, Most Think NH Is on the Right Track,” WMUR, October 24, 2013. 6 “2014 Governor Races,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 3, 2014. 7 “Gov. Maggie Hassan continues to outraise Republican opponents Hemingway, Havenstein,” Concord Monitor, September 4, 2014. 8 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 9 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 10 “New Hampshire: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m. 2 New Hampshire 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Other Office Democrat Republican Dem % GOP % GOP % Party % Margin US Senate Jeanne Shaheen Scott Brown D 51.8% 48.2% 0.0% 3.6% Governor Maggie Hassan Walt Havenstein D 52.7% 47.3% 0.0% 5.4% NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter Frank Guinta D 48.5% 51.5% 0.0% -3.0% NH-02 Ann Kuster Marilinda Garcia D 55.0% 45.0% 0.0% 10.0% State Senate 11 seats 13 seats R 10 D 14 R 0 I R+1 State House Majority Minority D Minority Majority N/A N/A Sources: “New Hampshire – Summary Vote Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014 at 12:14 p.m; Gerry Rayno, “GOP picks up state Senate seat as Avard tops Gilmour,” NewHampshire.com, November 5, 2014; Reid Wilson, “Republican sweep extends to state level,” Washington Post, November 5, 2014. REGISTRATION OVERVIEW As of November 2012, the last election with available voter registration statistics, undeclared or minor-party voters made up a plurality of voters in New Hampshire, about 42% of all registrants. This outstripped the 28% who are registered Democrats and the 30% who are registered Republicans. The general shape of the electorate has changed only slightly in the last six years, with the share of registered Democrats decreasing from 29.5% in November of 2008 to 27.2% in January of 2014. New Hampshire did not have voter registration numbers for the 2014 election available as of November 7, 2014: the table below contains the most recently available numbers from January. New Hampshire Voter Registration by Party Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Other % Total Advantage November 2004 228,395 26.7% 267,141 31.2% 360,325 42.1% 855,861 -38,746 November 2006 221,549 26.0% 256,353 30.1% 372,934 43.8% 850,836 -34,804 November 2008 282,421 29.5% 280,507 29.3% 395,600 41.3% 958,528 1,914 November 2010 270,826 28.6% 278,782 29.5% 395,733 41.9% 945,341 -7,956 November 2012 250,358 27.6% 273,675 30.2% 381,924 42.2% 905,957 -23,317 January 2014* 236,774 27.2% 261,846 30.1% 372,009 42.7% 870,629 -25,072 Change Since 2004 8,379 0.5% -5,295 -1.1% 11,684 0.6% 14,768 13,674 Source: “Party Registration/Names on Checklist History,” New Hampshire Secretary of State, accessed November 8, 2014. * The 2014 New Hampshire Voter Registration statistics are only available as of January 15, 2014. This may make the numbers an inaccurate reflection of the size and composition of the 2014 electorate. TURNOUT ANALYSIS In presidential years, the turnout rate for the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) in NH is usually upwards of 10% higher than the national rate. In midterm elections, the VEP turnout rate in New Hampshire is still noticeably higher than the national VEP turnout rate. This was true this year, as well, as New Hampshire’s VEP turnout rate was 48.8%, as opposed to a national VEP turnout rate of 36.6%. 3 New Hampshire VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 992,226 710,970 71.7% 61.6% 2010 1,000,167 456,588 45.7% 41.0% 2012 1,013,741 710,984 70.1% 58.2% 2014* 1,024,678 500,000 48.8% 36.6% Difference from 2010 24,511 43,412 3.1% -4.4% Difference from 2012 10,937 -210,984 -21.3% -21.6% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. * 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final. ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING Absentee voting by mail requires an excuse in New Hampshire, and the state does not offer early voting. As a result, early or absentee ballots only account for a small portion of ballots cast, typically fewer than 10%. It is hard to run absentee ballot chase programs in the state for other reasons as well, as the town-level collection process of absentee ballots makes personal data unattainable. This town-level collection process also slows down the release of data, and there was no absentee ballot information for the 2014 election available as of November 7. The percentage of people using absentee ballots has remained relatively constant after accounting for the difference between midterm and presidential years. Numbers were slightly down in 2012 (9.5%) when compared to 2008 (10.0%), while numbers in 2010 (7.0%) were slightly higher than the numbers in 2006 (5.8%). New Hampshire Method of Vote Since 2008 Total Absentee Absentee Early In-Person In-Person Year Early % Voters Votes % Votes Votes % 2008 719,403 72,264 10.0% 0 0.0% 647,139 90.0% 2010 431,391 30,032 7.0% 0 0.0% 401,359 93.0% 2012 718,700 68,014 9.5% 0 0.0% 650,686 90.5% 2014 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Difference from 2010 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Difference from 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Source: “Elections Division,” New Hampshire Secretary of State, accessed October 31, 2014. REGIONAL ANALYSIS The state has three media markets, all of which overlap with other states. The largest market is the Boston media market, which reaches 83.4% of the electorate and spans six counties in Southern New Hampshire (Belknap, Cheshire, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham and Strafford).
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