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Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy Hearing MONETARY POLICY AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 25, 2015 Printed for the use of the Committee on Financial Services Serial No. 114–4 ( U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 95–048 PDF WASHINGTON : 2015 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:02 Aug 19, 2015 Jkt 095048 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 K:\DOCS\95048.TXT TERRI HOUSE COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES JEB HENSARLING, Texas, Chairman PATRICK T. MCHENRY, North Carolina, MAXINE WATERS, California, Ranking Vice Chairman Member PETER T. KING, New York CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York EDWARD R. ROYCE, California NYDIA M. VELA´ ZQUEZ, New York FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BRAD SHERMAN, California SCOTT GARRETT, New Jersey GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas MICHAEL E. CAPUANO, Massachusetts STEVAN PEARCE, New Mexico RUBE´ N HINOJOSA, Texas BILL POSEY, Florida WM. LACY CLAY, Missouri MICHAEL G. FITZPATRICK, Pennsylvania STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts LYNN A. WESTMORELAND, Georgia DAVID SCOTT, Georgia BLAINE LUETKEMEYER, Missouri AL GREEN, Texas BILL HUIZENGA, Michigan EMANUEL CLEAVER, Missouri SEAN P. DUFFY, Wisconsin GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin ROBERT HURT, Virginia KEITH ELLISON, Minnesota STEVE STIVERS, Ohio ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado STEPHEN LEE FINCHER, Tennessee JAMES A. HIMES, Connecticut MARLIN A. STUTZMAN, Indiana JOHN C. CARNEY, JR., Delaware MICK MULVANEY, South Carolina TERRI A. SEWELL, Alabama RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois BILL FOSTER, Illinois DENNIS A. ROSS, Florida DANIEL T. KILDEE, Michigan ROBERT PITTENGER, North Carolina PATRICK MURPHY, Florida ANN WAGNER, Missouri JOHN K. DELANEY, Maryland ANDY BARR, Kentucky KYRSTEN SINEMA, Arizona KEITH J. ROTHFUS, Pennsylvania JOYCE BEATTY, Ohio LUKE MESSER, Indiana DENNY HECK, Washington DAVID SCHWEIKERT, Arizona JUAN VARGAS, California ROBERT DOLD, Illinois FRANK GUINTA, New Hampshire SCOTT TIPTON, Colorado ROGER WILLIAMS, Texas BRUCE POLIQUIN, Maine MIA LOVE, Utah FRENCH HILL, Arkansas SHANNON MCGAHN, Staff Director JAMES H. CLINGER, Chief Counsel (II) VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:02 Aug 19, 2015 Jkt 095048 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 K:\DOCS\95048.TXT TERRI C O N T E N T S Page Hearing held on: February 25, 2015 ............................................................................................ 1 Appendix: February 25, 2015 ............................................................................................ 55 WITNESSES WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2015 Yellen, Hon. Janet L., Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ................................................................................................................... 5 APPENDIX Prepared statements: Moore, Hon. Gwen ............................................................................................ 56 Yellen, Hon. Janet L. ....................................................................................... 57 ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Yellen, Hon. Janet L.: Monetary Policy Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to the Congress, dated February 24, 2015 .................................... 68 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Duffy ....................................................................................................... 124 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Hurt ........................................................................................................ 129 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Luetkemeyer .......................................................................................... 132 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Moore ...................................................................................................... 136 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Mulvaney ................................................................................................ 138 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Sinema .................................................................................................... 146 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Waters .................................................................................................... 149 Written responses to questions for the record submitted by Representa- tive Huizenga ................................................................................................ 158 (III) VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:02 Aug 19, 2015 Jkt 095048 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 K:\DOCS\95048.TXT TERRI VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:02 Aug 19, 2015 Jkt 095048 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 K:\DOCS\95048.TXT TERRI MONETARY POLICY AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY Wednesday, February 25, 2015 U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES, Washington, D.C. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:01 a.m., in room HVC–210, Capitol Visitor Center, Hon. Jeb Hensarling [chairman of the committee] presiding. Members present: Representatives Hensarling, Lucas, Garrett, Neugebauer, McHenry, Pearce, Posey, Fitzpatrick, Luetkemeyer, Huizenga, Duffy, Hurt, Stivers, Fincher, Stutzman, Mulvaney, Hultgren, Ross, Pittenger, Wagner, Barr, Rothfus, Messer, Schweikert, Dold, Guinta, Tipton, Williams, Poliquin, Love, Hill; Waters, Maloney, Velazquez, Sherman, Meeks, Capuano, Lynch, Green, Cleaver, Moore, Ellison, Perlmutter, Himes, Carney, Foster, Kildee, Delaney, Sinema, Beatty, Heck, and Vargas. Chairman HENSARLING. The Financial Services Committee will come to order. Without objection, the Chair is authorized to declare a recess of the committee at any time. Today’s hearing is for the purpose of receiving the semiannual testimony of the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Re- serve System on monetary policy and the state of the economy. We should advise all Members that today’s hearing will end at 1 p.m., in order to accommodate the Chair’s schedule. I now recog- nize myself for 3 minutes to give an opening statement. As Chair Yellen delivers her semiannual report today, we have an opportunity to examine the state of the Fed’s balance sheet, but it is the precarious state of family balance sheets that must be fore- most on our minds. That coincidentally is the title of a recent re- port by the Pew Charitable Trust, which rightly concludes that, ‘‘Many American families are walking a financial tightrope.’’ Since the President embarked on his economic program, middle-income families have found themselves with smaller paychecks, smaller bank accounts, and further from financial independence. Millions have become so discouraged trying to find a job that they have sim- ply given up and left the workforce. Although we have happily seen some recent improvement in our economy, Americans are still mired in the slowest, weakest recovery of the post-war era, this in spite of the single largest monetary stimulus in America’s history. Why is this recovery so anemic? No doubt, it is hampered by Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank Act, and the other roughly $617 bil- lion in new regulatory costs imposed by the Administration. This is something monetary policy cannot remedy. On top of this is the (1) VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:02 Aug 19, 2015 Jkt 095048 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 K:\DOCS\95048.TXT TERRI 2 burden of $1.7 trillion in new taxes that fall principally upon our engines of economic growth: small businesses; entrepreneurs; and investors. Monetary policy cannot remedy this either. Then there is the doubt, uncertainty, and regulatory burden that grows as more and more unbridled discretionary authority is given to unaccountable government agencies. Although monetary policy cannot remedy this, it can help. During the most successful periods of our Fed’s history, the cen- tral bank appeared to follow a clear rule, methodology, or monetary policy convention. Today, however, it favors a more unpredictable and somewhat amorphous ‘‘forward guidance,’’ which creates uncer- tainty. For example, just moments after the Federal Open Market Com- mittee (FOMC) released its policy statement on December 17th, the Dow surged over 300 points, seemingly based upon nothing more than the substitution of the word ‘‘patient’’ for the phrase ‘‘consid- erable time.’’ And when Chair Yellen’s predecessor once publicly mused about the mere possibility of tapering Quantitative Easing, markets took a deep dive. Thus, there does not appear to be all that much ‘‘guidance’’ in the Fed’s ‘‘forward guidance.’’ As one former Fed President recently wrote, ‘‘Monetary policy uncertainty creates inefficiency in the cap- ital market. The FOMC gives lip service to policy predictability, but its statements are vague. The FOMC preaches that policy is data- dependent, but will not tell us what data and how.’’ Many prominent economists believe that the American people will enjoy a healthier economy when the Fed begins to adopt a more predictable method of rules-based monetary policy, one of its choosing. Opponents argue any reforms threaten the Fed’s monetary policy independence, but the greatest threat
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