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THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL March 2, 2016 GUINTA UNPOPULAR IN FIRST DISTRICT, CANDIDATES FOR NH GOVERNOR AND US CONGRESS UNKNOWN By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center DURHAM, NH – New Hampshire governor Maggie Hassan is running for the U.S. Senate after serving two terms. Possible candidates for governor are largely unknown to New Hampshire residents. First District Congressman Frank Guinta is very unpopular in his district and faces three unknown challengers for the Republican nomination. Second District Congresswoman Ann Kuster is only somewhat popular in her district but faces a largely unknown challenger. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and eighty-seven (687) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between February 20 and February 28, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.7 percent. Included were six hundred and twenty-eight (628) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 3.9%). Three hundred and fifty-eight (358) residents were from the First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.2%) and three hundred and twenty-nine (329) were from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.4%). Favorability Ratings – Potential Republican NH Governor Candidates Governor Maggie Hassan has decided to run for the U.S. Senate rather than run for re-election and leaves the race for the next governor of New Hampshire wide open. The potential candidates to replace Hassan are all relatively unknown among New Hampshire residents. The best known of these candidates is Republican Executive Councilor Chris Sununu of Newfields; son of former governor John H. Sununu and the brother of former U.S. senator John E. Sununu. Currently 25% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 19% have an unfavorable opinion, 13% are neutral and 43% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion (including 38% in the 3rd district which he represents). Sununu’s net favorability (the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion) is +6%. Another potential Republican candidate is state senator and former congressman Jeb Bradley of Wolfeboro. Currently 26% have a favorable opinion of Bradley, 16% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral and 47% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Bradley’s net favorability rating is +10%. Ted Gatsas, the mayor of Manchester and former president of the New Hampshire Senate, is also considering a run for Governor. Despite being mayor of New Hampshire’s largest city, Gatsas is relatively unknown to the state -- 20% have a favorable opinion of Gatsas, 15% have an unfavorable opinion, 12% are neutral and 53% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Gatsas’ net favorability rating is +5%. Currently 10% have a favorable opinion of state senator Jeanie Forrester (R-Meredith), 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 12% are neutral, and 74% don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. Forrester’s net favorability rating is +6%. We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Rounding out the candidates tested on the Republican side is first-term state representative Frank Edelblut of Wilton. Currently 3% have a favorable opinion of Edelblut, 3% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral and 84% don’t know enough about him to say. Edelblut’s net favorability is 0%. Favorability Ratings - Potential Republican NH Governor Candidates - February 2016 Chris Sununu 25% 13% 19% 43% Jeb Bradley 26% 11% 16% 47% Ted Gatsas 20% 12% 15% 53% Jeanie Forrester 10% 12% 4% 74% Frank Edelblut 3% 11% 3% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK Favorability Ratings – Potential Democratic NH Governor Candidates The best known potential Democratic candidate is former Portsmouth city councilor Stefany Shaheen, who is the daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Currently 13% have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 10% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral and 69% don’t know enough about her to say. Shaheen’s net favorability is +3%. Former director of the New Hampshire Bureau of Securities Regulation Mark Connolly of New Castle is only somewhat less known than Shaheen. Currently 11% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Connolly, 3% have an unfavorable opinion, 12% are neutral and 75% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Connolly’s net favorability is +8%. The final candidate tested is executive councilor Colin Van Ostern of Concord. Currently 8% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Van Ostern, 4% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 11% are neutral and 78% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion (including 76% in the 2nd Executive Council district which he represents). Van Ostern’s net favorability is +4%. Favorability Ratings - Potential Democratic NH Governor Candidates - February 2016 Stefany Shaheen 13% 8% 10% 69% Mark Connolly 11% 12% 3% 75% Colin Van Ostern 8% 11% 4% 78% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK Favorability Ratings – Frank Guinta In New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, incumbent Frank Guinta continues to be unpopular due to fallout from a settlement with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) over campaign finance violations from his 2010 run for Congress. Currently, only 19% of 1st C.D. adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 8% are neutral and 27% don’t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is -27%, up from -29% in October. Guinta is somewhat popular among Republicans (net +8%), unpopular among Independents (-22%) and very unpopular among Democrats (-64%). Favorability Ratings - Frank Guinta NH 1st District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 50% 46% 39% 40% 37% 36% 36% 33% 33% 34%33%33% 40% 30% 30%31%30%30% 31% 32% 28% 28% 27% 30% 23%22% 38% 30% 30% 20% 28%28%27% 27% 27%27%29% 25% 26%24% 24%26% 23% 21% 20%22% 19% 10% 18%17% 14% 11% 0% 8% Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Jan. Feb. Feb '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Favorable Unfavorable Potential Republican Challengers – 1st District Guinta has announced his intentions to run for re-election, but he faces multiple challengers for the Republican nomination. Former UNH business school dean Dan Innis (R-Portsmouth), who narrowly lost to Guinta in the 2014 Republican primary has announced his candidacy, as has state representative Pam Tucker (R-Greenland). Businessman Rich Ashooh (R-Bedford) who lost to Guinta in the 2010 Republican primary, is also considering running. All three are largely unknown in the First District. Currently 13% have a favorable opinion of Innis, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 10% are neutral and 73% don’t know enough about him to say. Innis’ net favorability is +9%. Currently 6% have a favorable opinion of Tucker, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral and 79% don’t know enough about her to say. Tucker’s net favorability is +2%. Currently 5% have a favorable opinion of Ashooh, 3% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral and 82% don’t know enough about her to say. Ashooh’s net favorability is +2%. Dan Innis 13% 10% 4% 73% Pam Tucker 6% 11% 4% 79% Rich Ashooh 5% 9% 3% 82% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK Democratic Challengers – 1st District Former congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who held the first district seat from 2007-2011 and 2013-2015, has announced she will run in 2016. If Shea-Porter were to receive the Democratic nomination and Guinta were to receive the Republican nomination, it would mark the fourth consecutive election they would face off for the seat. Shea-Porter remains somewhat popular in the First District –38% have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 34% have an unfavorable opinion, 10% are neutral and 18% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability is +4%. Shea Porter is very popular among Democrats (+43%), somewhat popular among Independents (+8%) and very unpopular among Republicans (-38%). Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter – 1st District 49%48% 50% 44% 44% 45% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43%42% 40% 41% 40% 41%40% 41% 39% 39% 38% 39% 40% 38%38% 37% 37% 38% 35% 33% 39% 37% 37% 31% 30% 35% 35% 35% 34% 34% 32%32% 32% 32% 30%31% 30% 30%31%30% 30% 28% 28% 28%28% 29% 26% 20% 16% 20% 21% 18% 17% 10% 7% 15% 5% 0% 0% Favorable Unfavorable Favorability Ratings – Shawn O’Connor – 1st District Businessman Shawn O’Connor of Bedford is also seeking the Democratic nomination for the 1st District seat, but is largely unknown among 1st District residents. Currently 10% have a favorable opinion of O’Connor, 1% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral and 78% don’t know enough about him to say. O’Connor’s net favorability is +9%. Shawn O'Connor 10% 11% 1% 78% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK Favorability Ratings – Ann Kuster Despite comfortably winning a second term in November, Second District congresswoman Ann Kuster is only somewhat popular in her district. Currently, only 34% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 30% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 8% are neutral, and 28% don’t know enough about her to say.
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