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Iranian Presidential Elections 2021: Implications for India 138 / 21 29 JUNE 2021 Iranian Presidential Elections 2021: Implications for India Anu Sharma Associate Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies Iran held its 13th Presidential elections on June Hashemi, Mohsen Mehralizadeh, Mohsen Rezaei 18, 2021 and elected Ebrahim Raisi, the Hardline Mirgha’ed, and Abdol Naser Hemmati. The candidate as the next President of Iran to Guardian Council disqualified many candidates succeed Hassan Rouhani on August 03, 2021. including former Iranian President Mahmoud These polls were crucial for Iran in a number of Ahmedinejad, current Vice-President Eshaq ways as the incumbent President Hassan Rouhani Jahangiri and the former Parliament Speaker and could not contest election key nuclear negotiator Ali for the third successive term Unlike last two terms, this time the Larijani. Many leaders along constitutionally, eventually hardliners also referred to as with the incumbent Iranian leaving Iran’s regional role, principalists or conservatives won President Hassan Rouhani nuclear deal negotiations the elections to the Presidential expressed disappointment with the West and the office. over the selection process of crumbling Iranian economy the Guardian Council. The under the pressures of sanctions and COVID-19 rejection of the candidatures of Eshaq Jahangiri pandemic. After the 2013 Presidential elections, and Ali Larijani was an unpredicted move of the moderate-reformist government came to power Guardian Council. It was however suspected at and served two terms under incumbent President that time that if Ali Larijani contested elections Hassan Rouhani. However, unlike last two terms, could have tilted the support in favour of the this time the hardliners—also referred to as moderate-reformist camp. This could have led principalists or conservatives—won the elections to him to emerge as one of the main contenders to the Presidential office. In this context it against the now-elected President Ebrahim Raisi. becomes pertinent to discuss and understand the The closed selection process of the Guardian political structure of Iran as well as analyse the Council have led to the speculations that implications of the new Iranian President on corruption could have been one of the reasons India-Iran bilateral relations. for the rejection of Ali Larijani’s candidature. It is widely speculated that through these rejections 1 Iran’s Guardian Council, responsible for vetting the Guardian Council paved the way for the the candidates for the Presidential elections on election of a hardliner candidate as the next May 25, 2021 released the list of seven President of Iran. A number of experts of Iranian candidates from a list of total 592 candidates affairs are of the view that the lack of detailed which included the names of Saeed Jalili, Ebrahim plans to tackle the issues related to nuclear Raisi, Alireza Zakani, Amir Hossein Qazizadeh 29 JUNE 2021 PAGE - 1 negotiations and sanctions related negotiations The important factor related to the Iranian political with the world powers along with increasing landscape is that it consists of three main inflation, unemployment, water shortage and ideological streams i.e., the hardliners or more recently the COVID-19 pandemic could be conservatives or principalists, the moderates and the reasons for the lack of willingness among the reformists. The Hardliners, who are in favour the voters to come out and vote. In this backdrop, of expanding its nuclear programme; moderates it would be interesting to analyse the political who are in favour of maintaining the status quo; structure of Iran and how it differs from other and the reformists who largely want to transform democratic forms of government prevalent the internal theocratic structure of Iran. In Iran, globally. the presidency has often fluctuated between the reformists and the hardliners. The reformists have Political Landscape of Iran assured the lessening of social restrictions, along The government structure in the Islamic Republic with press freedoms and accountability on human of Iran is based on an Islamic theocracy rights. Reformists also underline the fact that comprising of the elements of a presidential Iranian state is the primary republic in which democracy. However, different from any other Islam acts both as the vanguard and a check on form of a Presidential form of Democracy, in case the traditional institutions of power. However, as of Iran the ultimate authority is vested with the against this the hardliners largely adhere to the “Supreme Leader.” The Supreme Leader in Iran is rigid doctrine initiated after the Iranian the head of state and also the highest ranking Revolution of 1979. They often argue that the political and religious words of Supreme Leader authority. The position of With the new hardline President in and God’s law has the Supreme Leader was created power, Iran could be facing rigid definitive authority. In such after the Iranian Revolution rules both in the domestic as well a scenario, with the new (1979) wherein Ayatollah as foreign affairs (in future). hardline President in power, Mousavi Khomeini—the Iran could be facing rigid father of Iranian Revolution held this position till rules both in the domestic as well as foreign his death in 1989. Since 1989 this position affairs (in future). Iran has a dichotomic political currently is being held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. order wherein both the parts are constantly Even though elections are held at the regular conflicting with each other. One part of it is the intervals in Iran, due to this position and authority institutions which function in the democratic of the Supreme Leader it is often referred to as system i.e., the directly elected President, an authoritarian form of government. elected national assembly and a government accountable to the assembly. Another crucial The President in Iran is the second highest ranking aspect of Iranian political process is related to official. Still the power of the President is the feature that ardently safeguards the ideology restricted by the Constitution of Iran which assists and principles of the Islamic Revolution (1979). the entire executive branch to the Supreme However, this has led to the formation of Leader. In fact, Iran is the only nation in which institutions in Iran which have weakened its the executive branch does not head the armed democratic characters. forces. The key functions of the Iranian President include the formation of economic policies. The There were seven candidates approved by the President has nominal rule over the Supreme Guardian Council. Out of these the majority of National Security Council and the Ministry of candidates (five out of seven candidates) were Intelligence and Security. The Supreme Leader the hardliners/conservatives namely Amir commands all the matters of foreign and Hossein Qazizadeh, Saeed Jalili, Ebrahim Raisi, domestic security. The President is assisted by a Alireza Zakani and Mohsen Rezaei Mirgha’ed. The cabinet of 22 ministers and this Council of Council also approved two other names one of Ministers is validated by Majleis (Parliament). which was a reformist candidate, Mohsen 29 JUNE 2021 PAGE - 2 Mehralizadeh and the other one, a moderate they remain indecisive of whether the hardliner candidate, Abdol Naser Hemmati. However, President would be able to rectify the Iranian there is a big group of believers which believes economy. that a disciplined Iran led by a hardliner president President-elect Raisi is often referred to as the can be more confident in dealing with the West, protégé of the Supreme Leader Khamenei. In the especially the US. One of the foremost reasons current elections he swept more than 60 percent for the this win for the hardliners could also be of the 28.9 million votes. At the same time, the related to the rising dissatisfaction quotient June 18, 2021 elections also saw the lowest amongst the Iranian population against the turnout in the history of Iran clearly showing the Rouhani government which failed to fulfil its discontentment amongst the Iranian public. So, promises after coming to power. the issue facing the President Elect Raisi is - The winning of the hardliner candidate sends a whether he can jumpstart the economy as well signal to the west regarding Tehran’s actual as ease the financial pressure being faced by the political purposes and stance in regional and Iranian population. At the same time, it is to be global politics. This was made clear by the denial kept in mind that a lot depends on Iran’s of the President-elect negotiations with the West Ebrahim Raisi’s refusal to Even though the hardliners in Iran ( especially the US) related hold talks with the US have voiced their criticism in the to bringing the nuclear deal President Joe Biden. past related to the nuclear deal, it back on track and removal of However, it was speculated seems that, the then moderate- sanctions required to sustain that if the hardliners win, reformist government or now the its economy. Furthermore, in the struggle between the hardliner government, both will his first interview after various institutions working support to bring the nuclear deal elections President-elect under the Supreme Leader back on track. Raisi has refused to and President will be less. negotiate with the American Also, the Iranian military establishment is likely demands related to Tehran’s missile programme to kowtow to the policy changes made by the and Tehran’s support of regional militias. hardliners in the government. The new hardliner Major Power Play in West Asia President being elected in Iran makes the situation a bit tough for the US to ease out the The geographical location of the West Asian tensions in its bilateral relations while trying to region has always been a reason for the ease out the situation related to Iranian nuclear increased interest and role of the major powers deal.
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