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Update of the Study on System Expansion of the Generation System Final Report - Confidential Government of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana Update of the study on system Expansion of the Generation System Final Report - Confidential Prepared by: Brugman SAS 6-5-2018 0 Client Government of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana Subject Guyana’s Power Generation System Expansion Study Final Report Contract HECI/IBD/S/01/2018 This document is the Final Report. It includes comments from the client and its Notes stakeholders. This report selects the most favorable generation expansion programme. It covers all activities of the Term of Reference: Power demand growth (with energy efficiency and distributed generation), large scale generation alternatives, fuel price forecasts, selection of the most favorable generation mix, Policy and Regulatory analysis with recommendations, power sector tariff analysis, a preliminary social and environmental analysis and an action plan to develop the expansion programme. N. of pages 315 Issue date 06-05-2018 Prepared by: Alberto Brugman, Andres Brugman, Jose Manuel Mejia, Humberto Rodriguez and David Vargas. This report is confidential 1 CONTENTS FIGURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 5 TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 MAPS................................................................................................................................................................. 9 GLOSSARY OF TERMS .............................................................................................................................. 10 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES ...................................................................................................................... 15 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 16 2 SCOPE OF CONSULTANCY .............................................................................................................. 19 3 BACKGROUND OF THE POWER SECTOR IN GUYANA ........................................................... 20 3.1 LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................... 20 3.1.1 The Ministry of Public Infrastructure (MPI) .............................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Guyana Energy Agency (GEA) ................................................................................................... 20 3.1.3 Public Utilities Commission (PUC) ............................................................................................ 20 3.2 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................................ 21 3.3 COMPANIES RELATED TO THE POWER SECTOR IN GUYANA .............................................................. 21 3.4 GUYANA POWER & LIGHT INC. (GPL) ............................................................................................ 22 3.5 AREAS OF ELECTRICITY SERVICE AND SYSTEM TOPOLOGY .............................................................. 23 3.6 GENERATION CAPACITY ................................................................................................................... 24 3.6.1 DBIS system ................................................................................................................................ 24 3.6.2 Generation Capacity in other regions not connected to DBIS ................................................... 25 3.6.3 Generation Expansion Program ................................................................................................. 26 3.7 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ................................................................................................................... 26 3.7.1 Actual Transmission system ........................................................................................................ 26 3.7.2 Transmission expansion program ............................................................................................... 29 3.8 SERVICE QUALITY ............................................................................................................................ 29 4 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTS .......................................................................................... 31 4.1 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 31 4.2 DATABASE ....................................................................................................................................... 32 4.3 ECONOMETRIC MODEL .................................................................................................................... 34 4.4 GDP FORECAST ............................................................................................................................... 34 4.4.1 Oil discovery effect in GDP ........................................................................................................ 35 4.4.2 GDP growth scenarios ............................................................................................................... 36 4.4.3 Scenario results .......................................................................................................................... 40 4.5 GPL’S ELECTRICITY SALES FORECAST RESULTS .............................................................................. 41 4.6 EVOLUTION OF CUSTOMERS ............................................................................................................. 42 4.6.1 Residential customers ................................................................................................................. 42 4.6.2 Industrial and commercial customers......................................................................................... 43 4.7 ADDITIONAL VARIABLES CONSIDERED TO FORECAST POWER DEMAND ............................................ 45 4.7.1 Self-Generators switching into the DBIS interconnected System ............................................... 45 4.7.2 Linden Demand .......................................................................................................................... 46 4.7.3 Essequibo Sales .......................................................................................................................... 48 4.7.4 Energy not served in DBIS system .............................................................................................. 48 4.7.5 Losses Reductions ....................................................................................................................... 49 4.7.6 Auxiliaries and Self Consumption............................................................................................... 50 4.7.7 Energy Saved from Energy Efficiency and Distributed Generation ........................................... 50 4.8 ELECTRIC VEHICLES ........................................................................................................................ 54 4.9 RESULTS OF DBIS’ ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST ................................................................... 55 5 FUEL PRICES FORECASTS .............................................................................................................. 58 5.1 INTERNATIONAL FOSSIL FUEL PRICES ............................................................................................... 58 5.2 FUELS PRICES FORECASTS FOR GUYANA .......................................................................................... 59 5.2.1 Liquid fuels and natural gas ....................................................................................................... 59 5.2.2 Natural gas price forecast for Guyana ....................................................................................... 65 5.2.3 Summary of fuel prices’ forecasts for Guyana ........................................................................... 72 6 OPTIONS OF NEW POWER PLANTS .............................................................................................. 74 2 6.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................. 74 6.1.1 Operation of the existing generation system ............................................................................... 75 6.1.2 Operation of the 69 kV transmission system & connection criteria of new large power plants . 76 6.1.3 Reserve margin requirement for DBIS ....................................................................................... 77 6.2 HYDROELECTRIC OPTIONS ............................................................................................................... 78 6.2.1 Projects selected for the study .................................................................................................... 78 6.2.2 Basic description ........................................................................................................................ 81 6.2.3 Summary of hydroelectric projects’ characteristics ................................................................... 91 6.2.4 Hydrological statistics ...............................................................................................................
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