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Guyana’S Economic History

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Guyana’S Economic History Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, the World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202- 522-2625; e-mail: [email protected] ii Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... ii 1. Chapter 1: A Pivotal Moment in Guyana’s Economic History ......................................... 1 2. Chapter 2: Oil and Intergenerational Equity ................................................................... 15 3. Chapter 3: Governance and Institutions ........................................................................... 31 4. Chapter 4: Economic Transformation and Job Creation ................................................ 44 5. Chapter 5: Human Capital Development and Sustainable Poverty Reduction............. 59 6. Chapter 6: A Path to Sustainable and Inclusive Development ....................................... 74 A. Annexes ............................................................................................................................... 85 References .................................................................................................................................... 97 iii Acknowledgements This first systematic country diagnostic (SCD) for Guyana was prepared under the leadership of Tahseen Sayed (Country Director, CMU), J. Humberto Lopez (Acting RVP, LCRVP), Robert Taliercio (Regional Director LAC, EFI), Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (Director, IEG), Jorge Araujo (Practice Manager, MTI), and Ximena Vanessa Del Carpio (Practice Manager, POV). The team benefitted immensely from the valuable guidance and mentoring provided by Martin Rama (Chief Economist, LCRCE). The team offers sincere thanks to Axel van Trotsenburg (Managing Director, World Bank Group) for his guidance in shaping this SCD. Thanks also to Shantayanan Devarajan (Professor of Economics, Georgetown University) and Edgardo Favaro (External Expert) for their gracious support and expert insights. The SCD was prepared by a multidisciplinary World Bank Group team led by Abha Prasad (EFI), Tanida Arayavechkit (POV), and Johannes Herderschee (MTI). The team included Susana Moreira (Extractives), Stefano Curto (MTI), Timothy A. Johnston (Program Leader, HD), and Vickram Cuttaree (Program Leader, Infrastructure) from the World Bank, Denny Mahalia Lewis-Bynoe and Lars Johannes from the IFC, and Bexi Mota from MIGA. The team benefitted from in-country consultations and discussions with stakeholders – authorities, the private sector, students and academicians, and development partners – during the preparation period. The following staff provided inputs, materials and reviewed the draft: Judith Green (Principal Investment Officer, IFC), Raju Singh (Lead Economist, MTI), Galina Sotirova (Manager, IEG), Ozan Sevimli (Resident Representative, CMU), Elena Ianchovichina (Lead Economist, LCRCE), Zafer Mustafaoglu (Practice Manager, FCI), Valerie Hickey (Practice Manager, ENR), Adrian Fozzard (Practice Manager, GOV), and Ming Zhang (Practice Manager, GSURR). Multiple meetings were held to solicit a wide range of inputs at the World Bank, including a “Guyana Day” co-chaired by Tahseen Sayed and Martin Rama. Participants included John Anderson, Marlon Rawlins (FCI); Leah April, Onur Erdem (GOV); Ingrid Bjerke; Shawn Michael Powers (Education); Neesha Harnam (Health); Asha M. Williams (Social Protection); Tumurdavaa Bayarsaihan (Agriculture); Sergio Dell'anna, Hadji Huseynov (DRM); Maja Murisic, Susan Tambi Matambo, Raul Alfaro-Pelico, Shakil Ahmed Ferdausi and Jia Jun Lee (ENB); Marco Antonio Aguero (Water); Malaika Becoulet; Cecilia M. Briceno-Garmendia (Transport); Rocio Sanchez Vigueras (ICT); Charl Jooste, Sangjin Song, Daniel Reyes; Faya Hayati, Abdoulaye Ouedraogo, Catherine Koh Chiew Ming; James Bravo (MTI); Hubert Forrester, Ricardo Habalian (CMU); Natalia Garcia Pena Bersh and Bhanu Shri (POV). The team is also grateful to the Guyana country team, the Caribbean Country Management Unit (LCC3C), and staff from other World Bank Global Practices, the IFC, and MIGA, who contributed to the SCD. Invaluable support was provided by Angel Bhagmattie Bhojedat, Simone Lashley, Thomas Aubrey Johnson (Georgetown Country Office); and Kozeta Diamanti (CMU). Finally, the team would like to thank peer reviewers Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (Director, IEG), Francisco Galrao Carneiro (Practice Manager, MTI), Ivailo V. Izvorski (Lead Economist, MTI), Gabriel Lara Ibarra (Senior Economist, POV) and Steen Byskov (Senior Economist, FAB). iv Preface This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) is the first ever prepared by the World Bank Group for the Cooperative Republic of Guyana. It is designed to provide a comprehensive overview of key macroeconomic, fiscal, and sectoral challenges as the country begins its historic transformation into an oil producer. The SCD was finalized in March 2020 and updated to reflect the COVID-19 pandemic impacts and the fall in the oil prices. Furthermore, these two factors accentuate the constraints faced by Guyana and reinforce the analysis and messages in the report. First, although, Guyana is among the few countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region to maintain a positive economic outlook, its public health systems will be stretched with the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic has exposed the inadequacy in health systems to treat patients and protect health workers, with the lack of hospital beds and healthcare workers. There are also spatial divergences with access to basic health care services particularly limited in rural areas, and the problem is expected to be more challenging as testing and treatment of COVID-19 will likely be carried out at the national and the four regional hospitals. The containment measures are impacting employment and livelihood; important in a country with over 43 per cent poor. Second, the current volatility in oil prices reinforces the need for a sovereign wealth fund, good governance and transparency in the sector; this issue has been clearly articulated in the report. Recent oil price volatility may have reduced overall revenue of oil production in the short term. However, prices are projected to stabilize in the medium and long term, hence developments do not change the medium- and long-term outlook in any substantial way. The high quality of oil and low variable costs for the current ongoing production facilities are anticipated to be covered even with low prices, hence production is unlikely to halt. v Abbreviations & Acronyms AFC Alliance for Change APNU A Partnership for National Unity BoP Balance of Payments BoS Guyana Bureau of Statistics CARICOM Caribbean Community CCT Conditional Cash Transfers EITI Extractive’s Industry Transparency Initiative FDI Foreign Direct Investment GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GCRG Government of the Co-operative Republic of Guyana GDP Gross Domestic Product GEP Global Economic Prospects GNP Gross National Product GPL Guyana Power and Light GSDS Green State Development Strategy HCI Human Capital Index HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Country ICT Information and Communications Technology IDB Inter-American Development Bank IMF International Monetary Fund IMI International Migration Institute LAC Latin America and the Caribbean LFS Labor Force Survey MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MOE Ministry of Education MOH Ministry of Health NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NIS National Insurance Scheme NRF The Guyana Natural Resource Fund O&G Oil and Gas PNC People’s National Congress PPP Purchasing Power Parity SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SLC-HBS Survey of Living Conditions/Household Budget Survey SOE State-owned enterprises TFP Total Factor Productivity UHC Universal Healthcare Coverage UNFCCC United Framework Convention on Climate Change UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund WBES World Bank Business Experience Survey WDI World Development Indicators i A PIVOTAL MOMENT FOR GUYANA: REALIZING THE OPPORTUNITIES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Guyana stands at the threshold of a new era. The recent discovery of vast offshore oil and gas (O&G)1 reserves and the start of production, is poised to fundamentally transform the structure of the Guyanese economy while generating an influx of fiscal revenue. Prior to the discovery, extractive industries and commodity exports already played a major role in Guyana’s economy and public finances. However, the mining sector created few jobs and had a limited impact on poverty reduction. The rise of the
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