Survival responses to demographic and ecological pressures Population density and fishing patterns in

Jagjit Singh The University of the South Pacific

Abstract. The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to explore the broad socioeconomic patterns and second, to examine the significance offishing activities in small atolls such as those of the Pacific Island state of Kiribati. Previous researchers on socioeconomic conditions in Kiribati have pointed to its high population densities, limited land-based resources and reliance on marine resources for cash and subsistence. This research focused on the relationship between island population densities,fishingfor cash andfishingfor subsistence. It used multivariate and non-parametric statistical techniques to test out a hypothesised positive correlation between high population densities and a high degree offishingfor cash and subsistence. Variables used for each atoll included: population density; fishing area; fishing equipment; types of fishing; agricultural activities; work opportunities; and from elsewhere. Analysis revealed a significant association between population densities and intensity offishing activity. It further revealed that population density, commercial fishing, lagoon fishing, fishing equipment, remittances and ownership of breadfruit trees and babai pits had high loadings on factor 1 (which itself explained 32 per cent of the total variation. Low population density and relatively few resources necessitated a greater reliance on copra and subsistence fishing.

Key terms: Atolls; Kiribati; Subsistence fishing; Subsistence agriculture and Commercial fishing. 60 Journal of Pacific Studies, Vol. 19, 1996

Introduction

THIS PAPER exam ines fishing patterns in the coral islands ofthe Central Pacific. These islands, formerly known as the Gilbert and Ellice Islands Colony, became the separate and independent nations of Kiribati and Tuvalu in 1979 and 1978 respectively. The resource base of these isolated atolls is rather poor; hence, there has always been a reliance on marine resources. Fishing in Kiribati was selected for study because of its importance in the economy of the country. Kiribati consists of33 atolls straddling the equator in three groups: the Gilbert, Line and (refer to Figure I). These islands are scattered over approximately 3.0 million square kilometres of the Pacific, with only a fraction (810.7 sq km) of this enormous area making up the landmass (Douglas 1994:345). The coral rock of the flat atoll terrain is covered with about 2.5 m of hard sand and scanty soil.,Most islands enclose a lagoon but have no rivers. The thin layer of soil supports little growth apart from seaside scrub, coconuts and pandanus. Native land fauna is limited to the Polynesian rat and two species of lizard. Sea life, however, is abundant with birds, fish and coral (Douglas 1994:346). , the capital of the country, houses about one-third ofthe nation's population. It is here, too, that much ofthe infrastructure-road, electricity, hospital, schools, comm unications network and other related services-is located. The economy of Kiribati may be dichotomised into a monetised and a subsistence sector. The monetised sector is rather small, much of itdominated by expatriates and the Kiribati Government. The subsistence sector is generally located on the outer islands; it consists offishing and small-scale farming of copra, babai (wet giant ) and breadfruit. In 1988, Kiribati had a trade deficit of $A20 million, an adverse balance due partly to the depletion of phosphate on Island and partly to the country's low agricultural production and rising import bi lls. The atolls are relatively small, have shallowsoils with low water-holding capacity and suffer from frequent droughts. Furthermore, copra, the principal cash crop, has only a limited potential because offluctuating world prices and the unreliable climatic conditions. In the absence of land-based resources and with a rapidly growing population, it is only natural that the country should turn to its unusually large 200-mile economic and fisheries zone, enclosing an area of3 .0 million sq km, for Survival responses-Kiribati 61 its growth and development. Oftheresources that may be exploited from the 200-mile economic zone, the most obvious one is fisheries. The potential of the fisheries industry can best be illustrated by the country's export figures between 1979 and 1988 (Table 1).

Table 1 Major domestic exports fees, 1979 and 1988 (A$'OOO)

Commodity/ 1979 1988 Change in Change Annual Licensing fees (A$OOO) (A$OOO) value($OOO) over average I (EEZ) period (%) change

Phosphate 17,953 Copra 3,684 4,302 +618 16.8 1.7 Fish 152 1,606 +1,454 +965.6 29.9 Fees(EEZ) 614 1,809 +1,195 +194.6 12.8

Source: Rouatu 1989

Table 1 shows that overthe ten years in question, fish exports had a 956.6% increase, while fees from licensing foreign vessels fishing within the 200-mile zone have increased by 194.6%. In contrast to fisheries and related sources of revenue, copra has had only a 16.8% increase. The highest percentage annual average change (29.9%) has been associated with fish products. Phosphate, depleted through fifty years of mining, has since 1979 no longer been an important export item. Fisheries catch and production reached an all time high of 8,000 metric tonnes in 1984. It declined in 1987 but has been rising steadily since that year. paid the highest amount in licensing fees, followed by the Soviet Union. The and Korea have contributed too, but significantly less than Japan and the Soviet Union. Seaweed, with a lucrative market in Europe, is of growing importance to the economy of Kiribati. Islands that have contributed to seaweed production are: , , , , and South Tarawa. Of these islands, South Tarawa has been the largest producer of cultured seaweed in the country. There is an extensive literature on fisheries in the Pacific, much of which, especially in the case of Kiribati, consists of assessments of the potential for marine resource exploitation, or in-depth studies of social 0.. Figure I Kiribati. (Inset ~ South::Tarawa, Gilberr-Islands) "->

• W.. hington (T.buenon) 180" Q F.nninl (Teram.> Butuitari; W.arakei AbaiaDl;T...... ~ Kiritinmti (Christ.... bland) I\Iaiona~ Kuri8·... Aranuka!. •• Abemama PHOENIX ISLArJDS 0" 0" NonoUli)) Benl 6an8b•• T.biteu.. ':. "" (0CC8JI Onolo. ) Canto2, \:: deri'ury B' .•~n 1sIuad) Tamana • • Malden ~ MclCun ...... ,Phoe1'ix >:: Gudnu, ·SydneY 1 .SlAobuck ~ (Niku.... roro) Huo {JIb .....) :?. (o.ou) ~ ~ t:> Vostok "Caroline . S;" SOUTH TARAWA Funt "~ >:: ~ -'"

o 200 .aokm ~ o 2 4 6 km , I I ,..... , , , - ~ <>~~ ...... ~ ...... '0 '0 0.. ~ Survival responses- Kiribati 63

change. Such studies are generally concerned with the changing patterns of village social and economic organisation. Included in these studies are investigations of traditional and modern patterns of fishing and land uti Iisation, as part of wider investigation of ind igenous material culture. In a detailed study of one of these atolls, Lawrence (1983) noted that fishing is an important source of livelihood. He reported that is landers spent 50% of their time on fishing and that three meals a week consisted of fish. Lawrence further noted that land plot sizes were relatively small and in demand forthe use of coconuts, toddy, breadfruit, babai and pandanus. The situation today is not markedly different from that revealed by Lawrence's ethnographic research in the late 1970s. It is natural that, in view of the scarcity of quality arable land, the people have traditionally resorted to the sea for subsistence. In recent years, the pressures of population increase compounded with decreasing marine resources have led some Island Counci Is to encourage the modern fish ing method offish aggregation devices (FADs). In traditional times, population growth was co ntrolled to some degree by frequent tribal wars, infanticide, diseases an d m igrations-control measures that today are no longer widespread. Since family planning is still not firmly established as acceptable practice, the consequent rapid increases in population have placed additional pressure on the resources. Much research has examined various aspects of Kiribati fishing patterns, as the brief survey below wi II indicate. Rouatu (1989:77-79) hi ghlighted the significance offisheries to both commercial and subsistence sectors of the Kiribati economy. The Kiribati government, realising the significance of fisheries, established a special department under the Ministry of Natural Resources to monitor and provide guidance for the effective management offishing and related activities. This department is responsible for collecting data at the household level on such matters as the type offish, overall value offish caught and fishing methods. It has responsibility, too, for collecting and drying seaweed for export. Commercial fishing ventures have been established at Betio (South Tarawa) and on for fish exports to markets in Honolulu and Nauru. These operations are being run as government-owned businesses (Rouatu 1989:78). In addition, with the assistance of the United Kingdom and UN DP/FAO , the Government has constructed Temaiku Fish Ponds in South Tarawa to meet the growing demand for 64 Journal of Pacific Studies. Vol. 19. J996 milk fish, for use as tuna bait as well as for local consumption (Rouatu 1989:79). Rouatu also reports that fishing places vary from island to island. In Butaritari, Tarawa, , Abemama, and North , more than half the fishing is done in lagoons. Most ocean fishing is done by people of Makin, , Beru, Nikunau, , Tamana and Arorae. Reef fishing is common on and North Tabiteuea. Taumaia (1983) prepared a report forthe South Pacific Commission on deep sea fishing, Marriott (1984) examined the nature and degree of fishing activities in rural Kiribati and a similar study was undertaken by Mees (1985a--c) of fisheries resources in the Northern Line Islands, Butaritari and Marakei Island. Zann (1984) investigated the traditional management and conservation offisheries in Kiribati and Tuvalu atolls. Curran (1985) undertook (for Overseas Development Administration based in London) a study of fisheries products. Management styles applied in the exploitation of marine resources in Kiribati were studied by Teiw'aki (1988). Raba(1991: 12), with technical assistance from the Integrated Atoll Development Project of the United Nations, produced a socioeconomic profile of Kuria. An interesting feature of this study was a detailed outline, indicative of the richness of the fishery, ofthe types offish caught indifferent places. Mullet, trevally, queen fish, silver spinefoot, silver biddy, longtom, goatfish, bonefish, striped emperor and longnose emperor are found mainly in the lagoon area. In the reef area there is a predominance ofthe following types: rock cod, scarlet squirrel fish, variegated emperor, green jobfish, spangled emperor, striped emperor, redtail snapper, eel and seapike. Ocean fish include the following varieties: skipjack tuna, yellow-fin tuna, mackerel, rainbow runner, dogtooth tuna, flying fish, dolphin, shark and barracuda. Other aspects of Raba's study include such features as fishing methods, fishing gear and type offishers. He noted that in 1991 there were 605 subsistence fishermen on Kuria atoll, the majority of whom used traditional canoes for fishing. Most-common fishing methods included: trolling, deepbottom fishing, netting, hand lining, rods and traps. . In terms of the nutritional effects of the available resource base, Smiles (1991 :71) has reported that the staple diet on coral atolls revolves around fish, coconut and breadfruit, with the addition on special occasions of a little pork or babai. She also notes that the traditional Kiribati diet is deficient in Vitamin A, with the result that some 14 per cent of the population suffer from night blindness. Survival responses- Kiribati 65

One study has particular importance in the context of the 'development' debate. Reporting on different aspects of fisheries management in the South Pacific, Doulman (1993) argues that the community-based fisheries management oftraditional times was effective in controlling overexploitation. However, social change and modern methods of fishing have eroded traditional practices, without gains of consequence in effectiveness of resource preservation. In light of this argument, Dou Iman is supportive of the restoration of the traditional systems offisheries management.

Conceptual framework

POPULATION growth, compounded with increasing scarcity ofland and consequent overcrowding on most atolls, has already been pinpointed as amajorproblem area for Kiribati. The people's responses to overcrowding have been many and varied, including at different times migration, infanticide, abortion, abstinence and different patterns of land use to maximise productivity. Thus, for instance, in 1938-39 the British (colonial) administration resettled groups of people from the Gilberts (now Kiribati) to (Sydney Id), (Hull Id) and Ukumoro (Gardner Id) in the Phoenix Group(Darby 1944). These transplanted populations were again resettled in 1958 and 1963 to locations in Solomon Islands (Douglas 1994:369- 70). Infanticide (as an accepted practice) has disappeared since the establ ishment of European rule. Abortion and family planning are not widespread, partly because of lack of knowledge of (Western medical science based) methods and partly because of conflicting religious beliefs. [n pre-European times, frequent wars between the different islands also kept the population in check and in the early post-contact years, blackbirding (labour trafficking) and the introduction of new diseases, firearms and alcohol further limited rates of population increase. Underthe British administration, blackbirding was stopped and diseases were brought under control with modern medicines. The overall effect of these measures was the stabilisation of the island population around the tu rn of this century (Darby 1944). The relationship between increasing population and scarce lands is illustrated schematically in Figure 2. 66 Journal of Pacific Studies, Vol./9, 1996

Figure 2 Relationship of increasing population densities and economic development: a conceptual framework

Increasing population (constrained by) + scarce lands ( finite resource)

increasing densities (overcrowding)

increasing dependence on marine resources for cash and subsistence

intensive utilisation of marine resources

income generation/ increase in income

genuine economic growth

This conceptual framework illustrates that since the (scarce) land is a finite resource, increasing population leads to high population densities and overcrowd ing on the different islands. In the case of island ecologies, the effect ofpopulation pressure in turn makes subsistence on land based food increasingly difficult, so that islanders become more and more dependent on sea products for their subsistence and cash income. Survival responses- Kiribati 67

One intention ofthis paper is to suggestthat in some ways Kiribati represents a dynamic primitive society of the type described by Boserup (1 965). Boserup' s thesis is that such a society has a better chance of achieving genuine economic development. In the case of Kiribati, the increase in population densities has led the Kiribati people and government to meet increasing demands through the exploitation ofmarine resources. Forthe purposes ofthis study, genuine economic development is to some degree identified with the modernisation that has come about through European colonisation. Aspects ofmodernisation include the establishment at different levels ofa democratic system of government, organisation of schools, churches, hospitals, court houses and such infrastructure as roads, airstrips, port facilities and growth centres. New methods of agriculture, crops and food exchange systems were also introduced. In the market place, the replacement of barter by the monetary system of exchange has, in turn, linked Kiribati to the global economy. In light ofthe preceding discussion, it is hypothesised that population density and fishing (full-time and subsistence) are associated. In other words, the higher the population density, the greater the dependence on marine resources. It is further hypothesised thatthe degree of subsistence fishing is greater in the outer islands than on the atolls close to Tarawa.

Data and methods

Forthe analysis undertaken in this paper, reliance has been placed on secondary data collected by the Kiribati government. In 1989, on the tenth anniversary of Kiribati independence, the government produced a statistical yearbook with a large quantity of social and economic data (Rouatu 1989), to which I have already referred. Much ofthis information was collected atthe household level for most islands in the Gilbert Group. Included in the report are the results of a survey undertaken by the Fisheries Division of the government. Data on the Line and Phoenix Groups were also available but were somewhat incomplete; hence islands in these groups have not been included. However, this is not a severe limitation ofthe analysis, as the atolls in Kiribati lie along the equator and are small in size, so they all tend to share similar geographical features. The people are also homogeneous, claiming to be of Micronesian descent (Douglas 1994:343). 68 Journal a/Pacific Studies, Vol. 19, 1996

Spearman's rank, a non-parametric statistical technique, was employed to explore the association between population density and fish caught per week by commercial and subsistence fishermen. The formula for th is statistical technique is given below:

6"Id 2 r =1= f. ' n\[!2 - I

where "Idi 2 = "I"[R(Xi-R(Yi)J i=1

Using the types offishermen (commercial and subsistence) as the criteria, the eighteen atolls were classified into groups by cluster analysis with average linkage method. The procedure involved finding the Euclidean distances between all pairs of islands. This was done using the following equation:

di j = ~~"(X " - xj, Y} k=1

Where: Xik is the value of variable Xk for island i

Xjk is the value of variable Xk for island j di is the Euclidean distance between island i and islandj for J the two types offishermen.

The third part ofthis investigation involved a principal component analysis using varimax and oblimin rotations. The decision to utilise this procedure was based on the resultant parsimony ofdescription associated with reduction of the number of variables to a few factors. Variables used inthe principal component analysis were population density, the degree of fishing in the different parts of the sea, types of fishing equipment used, and types of fishermen on the different atolls. Other variables used included the use ofland for breadfruit, coconut and babai cultivation and pig raising, remittances, and the numberofvillage workers on the different islands. These variables are listed in Table 2. Survival responses- Kiribati 69 Jo mal of Pacific Studies, Vo/.19, 1996

Table 2 Variables used in the principal components analysis an' a non-parametric statistical technique, was association between population density and fish Variable name Mnemonic · mer ial and subsistence fishermen. The formula i ue is given below: I. Population density by island (in sq km) Den 2. Per capita of fish caught (kg/week) 6'i.d' in ocean by subsistence by island Subsist = I =---,,-- 3. Per capita of fish caught (kg/week) by n n! - 1 full-time fi shermen by island Commfish 4. Per cent of fish caught (kg/week) dr' = ~ [RCXi - R(Yi) 1 in ocean by island Ocean 5. Per cent of fish caught (kg/week) i= 1 in reefs by island Reef 6. Per cent of fi sh caught (kg/week) in ,:fishermen (commercial and subsistence) as the lagoons by island Lagoon 7. Per cent of shell fish collection ,1/- \\ ere lassified into groups by cluster analysis (kg/week) in shallow waters by island Collect od. The procedure involved finding the Eucl idean 8. Per cent of households with boats by island Boat 'rso -islands. This was done using the following 9. Per cent of households with outboard motors by island Outboard 10. Per cent of households owning canoes by island Canoe II. Per cent of households owning nets by island Nets 12. Per cent of households with breadfruit trees by island Breadfruit II e of \ ariable X for island i 13 . Per cent of households with babai k pits by island Babai Ju of \ ariable X for island j k 14. Per cent of households owning pigs by isl ~ nd Pigs j ~an distance between island i and islandj for IS. Per cent of households receiving - 0 Ishermen. remittances from seamen by island Remit 16. Annual production of copra (metric tonnes/sq km) by island Copton 5 in estigation involved a principal component 17. Village workers per 100 inhabitants by island Villwork oblimin rotations. The decision to utilise this ~ resultant parsimony ofdescription associated ber of variables to a few factors. . prin ipal component analysis were population Population density, or the degree of population concentration on ing in th e different parts of the sea, types of the atolls, is a good indicator of the need for services; for example, on rJd types of fis hermen on the different atolls. Tarawa, with a density of 1,357 persons per sq km, the need for services led he use of land for breadfruit, coconut and would be much greater than on Makin with a population density of293. jsin ~ , remittances, and the numberofvillage Density was operationalised as a ratio between the numberofpersons and lands. These variables are listed in Table 2. the land area in square kilometres. Asthefocus in this research is the relative importance ofsubsistence and full-time fishing, it was crucial to include the type affishermen as a variable. Subsistence fishermen use their catch fortheir own sustenance .. 70 Journal of Pacific Studies, Vol.! 9, J 996

while full-time orcommercial fishermen use fishing as their main source of livelihood. This variable was operationalised by the amount of fish caught in kg per week by each of the two types offishermen. Fishing sites include the following areas: ocean, reef, lagoon and in shallow waters (where shellfish are collected). Place of fishing is included to assess the relative importance ofthe different fishing locations on the different islands. This variable was operationalised by the amount offish caught in kg per week in the different places. Fishing equipment includes the ownership of boats, outboard motors, canoes and fishing nets by households. Fishingequipment would to some degree determinethe placeoffishing. Forexample, ocean fishing would require the use of boats and/or outboard motors. Breadfruit and babai have been used as indicators of the intensity ofland use. These crops, together with coconuts, toddy and pandanus, are important island foods. Babai is a preferred food during festive occasions but it requires a lot of land and from 2 to 15 years to grow. Annual production of copra in metric tonnes (per sq km) has been used to assess the degree ofproductivity on the different atolls. Th is crop, and remittances, are important sources of cash. The number of village workers is used to measure the degree of participation in the subsistence economy. Village work includes, among other things, subsistence fishing, growing crops or cutting toddy. It can also be seen as an indicator of the scarcity of cash employment. This variable was operationalised on the basis of the number of village workers per 100 inhabitants by island.

The general factor analysis model is of the following form:

where: PCj = jth principal component Aji = the coefficient relating the ith variable to the jth component

In the last analysis, stepwise regression was employed to explain the variation in the total catch, using the following as independent variables: differenttypes offishing equipment(boat, outboard, canoe and net); place of fishing (ocean, lagoon, reef and shellfish collection); and Survival responses-Kiribati 71 type of fishermen (commercial or subsistence). The general regression model is as follows:

Y = a+bXI ... bXn where: Y = dependent variable: Total fish catch a = constant b = regression coefficient XI ... Xn = independent variables: types of fishing equipment, place offishing, type of fisherman

Stepwise regression was used because it produces a parsimonious model and minimises to some degree the problem of multicollinearity among the independent variables. As cross-sectional data were used, auto-correlation was nota major problem. Heteroscedasticitywas avoided by eliminating variables having large values. (Fuller discussion of the non-parametric and multivariate methods used here is to be found in Daniel (1990) and Manly (1991) respectively.) The unit of analysis in this research consists ofthe different atolls in the Gilbert Group: Makin, Butaritari, Marakei, Abaiang, North Tarawa, South Tarawa, Maiana, Abemama, Kuria, Aranuka, Nonouti, North Tabiteuea, Beru, Nikunau, Onotoa, Tamana and Arorae. Banaba, in the Gilbert Group and Washington, Fanning, Christmas and Kanton Ids in the Line Group were not included because of missing data.

Results and discussion: Fishing behaviour and island population densities

Hi: Population density and intensity offishing activity are positively associated.

Scarcity of both land resources and employment has increased the dependence of I-Kiribati on their marine resources. It was therefore hypothesised thatthere isadirect positive relationship between population density and (1) the amount offish caught by full-time fishermen and (2) the amount offish caught by subsistence fishermen. It was found that the results were significant (at 0.05) using Spearman's rank, thus supporting the hypothesis that the higher the 72 Journal of Pacific Studies, Vo1.J9, 1996

population density, the greater the dependence on marine resources. This tended to be true both ofthetotal catch and, separately, ofcommercial and subsistence fishermen per island. In other words the greater the density in persons per square ki lometre, the higher the fish catch in ki lograms per week. In this analysis, however, three islands with extreme values (' outl iers ')- South Tarawa, Abemama and Maiana-had to be excluded. Itmight be noted that these islands also did not amalgamate in the cluster analysis and appeared to be rather distinct from other islands. A similar analysis was performed to test the relationship between fish caught in kg per week by subsistence fishermen and island population density. It was found thatthis relationship, too, was significant atthe 0.05 level.

H2: Involvement in subsistence fishing increases in relation to distance from Tarawa.

The hypothesis relating the degree ofsubsistence fish ingto distance from Tarawa was tested with chi-square. It was found that the greater the distance from the capital the greater was the degree of fishing for subsistence. This relationship was significant at the 0.01 significance level. In the cluster analysis it was found that at distance level 2.0, all islands except Maiana, Abemama and South Tarawa converged into two distinct groups. In Cluster 1, Makin, Kuria, Aranuka, Tabiteuea North, Tabiteuea South, Beru, N ikunau, Onotoa, and Tamana emerged while in Cluster 2 appeared the Butaritari, Marakei, Abaiang, North Tarawa, Nonouti, and f\rorae atolls. South Tarawa, Maiana and Abemama formed discrete clusters outside Clusters 1 and 2. Cluster 1 atolls were characterised by high scores on subsistence fishing activity, ocean fishing, cultivation ofbabai, copra production and numbers of village workers. Fishing in lagoons by full-time fishermen was a prominent feature of Cluster 2. I n the hope of understanding the diverse patterns of fishing on the atolls, principal component analysis was used. As many of the variables seemed to be correlated, itwas feltthatthey could be represented by a few principal components to understand the underlying dimensions. Table 3 shows the principal components extracted (Table 3a), together with the orthogonally and obliquely rotated factor matrix (Table 3b). The initial seventeen variables were reduced to five factors. These Survival responses- Kiribati 73

five factors explained about 87.2% of the total variation. It was found that 2 some ofthe highest communal itites (h ) were associated with population density (0.89); amount offishing in lagoons (0.92); amount offish caught for subsistence (0.83); percentage of households owning boats (0.93) or outboard motors (0.91); fishing nets (0.85); and babai pits (0.90). The lower values were recorded forthe amount offish caught on reefs (0.58). (Communal ity is the proportion ofa variable's total variation involved in the five factors.) Factor 1, with an eigenvalue of 5.4, explained 32 per cent of the total variation. (Eigenvalue refers to the amount of variation in the data accounted for by a factor.) Islands with positive scores on Factor 1 have a relatively high degree offish caught by subsistence fishermen. These islands also have a fair amount offish caught by commercial fishermen, and have moderately large numbers of households owning canoes, breadfruit trees, pigs and babai pits. By contrast, islands scoring low on Factor 1 have low population densities, receive little in remittances from abroad and produce low amounts of copra per sq km. These islands also have fewer households owning boats, outboard motors and fishing nets. Relatively little collecting (shellfish) and fishing in lagoons is done on these atolls with negative scores. Factor 2 has high positive loadings on the amount offish caught in lagoons, shellfish collection, and households owning fishing nets. This factor has relatively high loadings on commercial fishing and moderate scores on fish caught by subsistence fishermen. Village workers also have a moderate positive score on this factor. Variables with low negative scores were: population density and fish caught in ocean and reefs. This in effect means that islands with low densities have low amounts offish caught in the ocean and on reefs. Factor 2, with an eigenvalue of3.7, explained 21.7% of the overall variation. Islands with high positive loadings on the amount offish caught by subsistence and commercial fishermen appear in Factor 3. Moderate scores on this factor are associated with the number of households receiving rem ittances and having breadfruit trees. Variables with low or negative scores are: islands with low population densities; fishing in lagoons and the reefs; households owning fishing nets; and babai pits. This factor also has a low score on islands with relatively few village workers. Factor3 accounts for 14.2% of the total variation, ofwhich fish caught by subsistence and commercial fishermen explains the most. 74 Journal oj Pacific Studies, Vo l./9, /996

Table 3a Principal factor matrix

Principal Factor Matrix Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Communality I 2 3 4 5 h2

Den -.82 -.30 .30 -.02 .19 .89 Subsist .50 .42 .59 .01 .24 .83 Commfish .30 .59 .53 -.21 -.13 .79 Ocean .37 -.73 .32 -.28 .12 .88 Reef .23 -.36 -.67 .35 .13 .78 Lagoon -.48 .80 -.04 .17 .14 .92 Collect -.24 .70 .26 .20 .21 .71 Boat -.85 -.25 .34 .11 -.09 .93 Outboard -.86 -.17 .31 .124 -.16 .91 Canoe .68 -.35 .28 -.15 -.12 .70 Nets -.25 .78 -.25 .14 -.30 .85 Breadfruit .56 .09 .58 .25 -.04 .73 Babai .89 .24 -.18 .18 .08 .90 Pigs .58 .14 .36 .16 -.39 .67 Remit -.19 -.34 .41 .65 .19 .79 Copton -.61 -.12 .18 -.08 .69 .90 Villwork .28 .49 -.05 .65 -.02 .75

Table 3b Rotated factor matrix

Rotated (Varimax) Rotated (Oblimin) Factor I Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5 Factor I Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5

Den -.94 -.04 -.0 I .02 -.10 -.82 -.29 .30 -.02 .19 Subsist .35. .05 .16 .323 .14 .50 .42 .02 .24 CommFish .27 -.07 .09 -.00 .23 .30 .59 .53 -.21 -.12 Ocean -.02 .94 .01 -.03 -.0 I .37 -.74 .33 -.28 .12 Reef .35 .07 -.79 .10 .00 .24 -.36 .67 -.35 -.13 Lagoon -.16 -.91 .27 .03 .03 .05 -.48 .79 -.04 .14 Collect .12 .54 .62 -.14 -.07 -.25 .70 .26 -.20 .22 Boat -.93 -.07 -.04 .11 .20 -.86 -.24 .34 .104 .10 Boat -.89 -.13 -.04 .09 .28 -.86 -.17 .31 .12 -.1 Nets .14 -.72 .18 -.36 .38 -.25 .780 .25 -.14 -.14 Breadfruit .28 .46 .39 .53 .08 .56 -.10 .588 .25 -.04 Babai .39 .11 .06 .13 .02 .89 .23 -.18 -.08 Pigs .47 .28 .33 .31 .408 .58 .13 .40 .16 -.09 Remit -.40 .13 .09 .77 -.09 -.19 -.34 .40 .65 .19 Copton .49 .21 .01 .05 -.78 .61 -.12 -.18 .08 .69 Villwork .46 -.46 .76 .56 .13 .28 .49 -.05 .65 -.02 Survival responses- Kiribati 75

Islands with a moderately large number of village workers and having a fair number of households receiving remittances appear in Factor 4, on which most other variables have low scores. This Factor explains 7.9% of the variation. Factor 5 explains the remaining 6.0% of the variation. Islands that produce most copra in tonnes per sq km feature prominently, while density and subsistence fishing have only moderate scores on this factor. The interpretation of factors was to some degree simplified with factor rotations. In Table 4, variables with high loadings have been selected and given adescriptive name. Thus Factor 1 (seeTable4a)with a high positive score on babai, a moderate score on fishing and a high negative score on population density, was labelled 'low population density - babai factor'. Likewise Factor 2 (Table 4b), having high scores on the amount offishing in lagoons, was labelled' lagoon fishing factor'. This factor also shows high to moderate scores on shellfish collection, commercial fishing and households in possession offishing nets. Factor 3 (Table 4c), with high scores on subsistence fishing and households owning breadfruittrees, was labelled 'subsistence fishing and breadfruit factor'. Factor 4 (Table 4d), with relatively high scores on percentage of households receiving remittances from seamen abroad and village workers per island, was labelled ' remittances - village work factor'. Factor 5 (Table4e), with ahigh loadingon copra in kg persq km, was labelled' copra production factor' .

Table 4 Interpretation of factors

a) Factor 1 (Low population density and babai factor)

Vari able Varimax Oblimin

Babai 0.89 0.89 Outboard -0.86 -0.86 Boat -0.85 -0 .86 Den -0.82 -0.82 Canoe 0.68 0.68 Copton 0.61 0.61 Pi gs 0.58 0.58 Breadfruit 0.56 0.56 Subsist 0.50 0.50 76 Journal oj Pacific Studies, Vol.J 9, 1996

b) Factor 2 (Lagoon fishing factor)

Variable Varimax Oblimin

Lagoon 0.80 0.79 Nets 0.78 0.78 Ocean -0.73 -0.73 Collect 0.70 0.70 Commfish 0.59 0.59 Villwork 0.49 0.50 Den -0.20 -0.30

c) Factor 3 (Subsistence fishing and breadfruit factor)

Variable Varimax Oblimin

Reef 0.67 0.67 Subsist 0.59 0.59 Breadfruit 0.58 0.58 Commfish 0.53 0.53 Remit 0.41 0.41 Boat 0.34 0.34 Den 0.30 0.30

d) Factor 4 (Remittances - village work factor)

Variable Varimax Oblimin

Remit 0.65 0.65 Reef 0.35 0.35 Viii Work 0.65 0.65

e) Factor 5 (Copra production factor)

Variable Varimax Oblimin

Copton 0.69 0.68 Subsist 0.24 0.24 Pigs -0.39 -0 .38 Survival responses-Kiribati 77

A number of regressions were also performed using total fish catch as the dependent variable. In one such model, place of fishing (ocean, lagoon, reef, or collecting shellfish in shallow waters) was used as an independent variable. In the stepwise procedure, the entry of variables was as follows: lagoon, ocean, collecting shellfish in shal low waters and fishing on reefs. R2forthese variables was 0.98. Of these, just one, 'the lagoon as a place offishing', accounted for 78% of the variation so this was considered a favourite fishing place. A similar analysis was performed to identify the most common fishing equipment used (boat, outboard motor, canoe and fishing net). The fishing net, accounting for 56% ofthe variation, emerged as the most common. A regression usingthe type offishermen as an independent variable showed that commercial fishermen accounted for 72% ofthe total catch, with the balance accounted for by subsistence fishermen.

Other observations

INCREASING population on scarce lands is also having an adverse effect on the health of the people, especially on South Tarawa. As population grows on the atolls, there is less nutritious food per capita, high rates of unemployment, low wages, overcrowding in homes and arising proportion of substandard sanitary facilities. In 1979, with a population density of 189.9 per sq km, Kiribati had a per capita GDP of$679. In 1983, the population density had increased to 205.1 per sq km but per capita GDP had declined to $495. Wages have also declined with increasing population density. In 1981, for instance, the average annual wage was $916, with a corresponding population density of 195.2 persons per sq km . However, since then the wages have been declining as population densities rise. In 1988, with a population density of228.9 persons per sq km, the average annual wage had dropped to $343. There has not been a corresponding improvement in human development as population densities rise. When the population density was 189.9 per sq km in 1979, the total student population was 16,316. By 1985, this figure had increased to 16,873, an increase ofJ.4 per cent. 78 Journal of Pacific Studies, Vol. 19, 1996

Overcrowding in homes, overutilisation of public amenities, and increases in respiratory tract infection, skin diseases and nutritional disorders are other consequences of increasing population densities. In 1981, for instance, when the population density was 195.2 persons per sq km, there were 22,041 cases of influenza, 2,536 cases of skin diseases, 7,493 cases of conjunctivitis and 334 cases of parasitic diseases. By 1988, however, with a population density of228.9 per sq km, there was a 23.5% increase in respiratory diseases including influenza and a 78% increase in skin diseases. Nutritional disorders are also on the increase. Vitamin A deficiency, for example, has increased from 1,089 cases in 1987 to 1,485 the following year. Disorders like hypertension and diabetes are increasing, perhaps due to an increasing dependence on imported tinned foods to supplement the dwindling supply of local foods in the face of the increased demand from an increasing population. Other consequences of increasing densities include increases in the crime rate. rn 1981 when the p,opulation density was 195.2 persons per sq km, there were 1,527 cases under the penal code. However, by 1987 when the population density had risen to 224.5 persons per sq km, the crime figures had increased to 2,197 cases, the biggest increases showing in crimes against property (criminal trespass) and offences against persons. One purpose ofthis paper has been to demonstrate that despite the problems inherent in rapid population increase, Kiribati may be considered, in the terms of Boserup's thesis, a dynamic community with a better chance of genuine economic development, in contrast to primitive communities with stagnant and declining populations. With the exhaustion of phosphate mining in Banaba, and an ever increasing population on scarce lands, J- Kiribati and the Kiribati government have resorted to technological and other innovations. The government has undertaken a numberofinitiatives to promote development. For example, it has, for a fee, been allowing foreign vessels to fish in its 200-m i Ie exclusive economic zone, and these fish royalties have proved a source of much needed revenue. It has also taken the initiative offish and seaweed farming, which are now turning out to be profitable ventures. At the community level, attempts are being made to preserve food surpluses and market them through cooperatives. Tribal councils are also being reorganised to promote economic development projects. At the individual level, increasing numbers ofI-Kiribati are findingjobs as Survival responses- Kiribati 79 seamen on foreign vessels. Rem ittances to relatives and friends in Kiribati are a significant return benefit of such employment. These different innovations appearing at national, community and individual levels constitute, I feel, demonstrations of a dynamic community with a sustained population growth, in line with Boserup 's thesis: one wh ich by its adaptive responses to pressures is actually achieving some degree of genuine economic development. One of the major problems in Kiribati, as in the Pacific Islands generally, has been uncontrolled migration from the outlying islands into towns. This phenomenon has.aggravated the unsavoury urban conditions of poor and overcrowded homes, high rates of unemployment, and inadequate health and education facilities. In the case of Kiribati, this is happening on Tarawa, the capital. In theoretical terms, Tarawa represents a community with a high rate of population growth and unable to have investment money necessary for intensive methods of cultivation and exploitation of marine resources. However, on atolls away from Tarawa, changes in technology induced by population pressure have led to greater dependence on marine resources. The increased efforts are to be seen in the ownership of boats, outboard motors, nets and otherfishingequipment. It is on these outlying atolls that evidence can be found of dynamic communities with genuine economic development.

Concluding summary and implications

IN THIS study, multivariate and non-parametric statistical techniques were employed to explore fishing patterns in the small atolls of the Gilberts Group in the Central Pacific. Data for this research were collected by the Kiribati government and published in a statistical yearbook (Rouatu 1989). Analysis of this data has tended to support the hypothesis that there is an association between population density and the amount offishing for subsistence on the different islands. Diverse fishing and socioeconom ic patterns were further explored with Principal Component Analysis. Five factors emerged as follows. Factor 1 had high negative loadings on population density (i.e. low population density) and a lower percentage of households with boats and outboard motors. Conversely, islands with high popUlation densities 80 Journal of Pacific Studies. Vol. 19. 1996 showed high to moderate scores on percentage ofhouseholds with canoes, babai pits, pigs and breadfruit trees. Factor 2 has high positive scores on fish caught in open ocean and percentage of households with canoes. Islands with low population densities also had low scores for fish caught in lagoons and percentage of households owning nets. Factor 3 had moderate scores for islands where much of the fish was caught by subsistence and commercial fishermen. This factor had low scores for fish caughton reefs, copra (in tonnes) persq km and village workers per 100 inhabitants. Factor 4 was high on percentage of households with breadfruit trees and fam il ies receiving rem ittances, while Factor 5 had high scores on islands that produced most copra in kg per sq km. I n the conceptual framework, the relevance ofBoserup' s thesis to this research was discussed. It was suggested that Kiribati, with a growing population, has a better chance of achieving genuine econom ic developmentthan do islands with declining populations. However, this might not be true of Tarawa, which is experiencing rapid population increases over a short period oftime. In such towns there is commonly a high degree of unemployment, overcrowding in homes, rising crime rates, and deficiencies in medical facilities and other related services, and Tarawa is no exception. It is argued here that the village dwellers, on the other hand, are using farming and fishing to make a real contribution to income generation, wh ich in turn contributes to gen u ine econom ic development. The ev idence provided by the Kiribati case provides further support for the view that governments in Third World countries should as far as possible restrict the movement oflarge numbers of people from rural to urban areas where there is scarcity of jobs and services . Slirvival responses-Kiribati 81

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