The Arab Spring: a Decade Later

IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu B R E F 05 2021 I The Arab Spring: A Decade Later By Mario Stefanov Introduction a decade later, it can be stated with certainty that the revolutions of the Arab Spring were not This year marks the tenth anniversary of the successful. These revolutions have not ushered outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring. Suicide of in neither modernization nor democratization an unemployed young man in the Tunisian city of the Arab countries, which was the revolutions of Sidi Bouzid on 17 December 2010 has enticed declared objective. To the contrary, even the protesters to take to the streets and it has Tunisia, a country said to have had a successful triggered and open rebellion against Tunisian revolution, had also replaced one dictatorship autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali - who on 14 with another. Effects of the violent upheavals of January 2011 boarded on plane and fled to Saudi the Arab Spring in other Arab countries include Arabia, escaping in front of the revolutionary strengthening od forces of Islamist extremism, chaos. Successful toppling of Ben Ali has set off conflicts on ethnic, religious and sectarian a string of uprising in the Arab countries that divisions, civil wars, total economic destruction are today known as the Arab Spring. Nowadays, of the most of the Arab countries caught by the IRMO BRIEF 05/2021 1 revolutionary wave, dissolution of formerly fact that the upheaval of the Arab Spring did not strong Arab states, and triggering the waves succeed in Egypt, which in spite of the internal of migrations that still flow toward Europe. A conflicts and subsequent economic crisis is decade after the outbreak of the Arab Spring one of the key Arab countries. In the first wave revolutions the question of their real source of the revolution the longstanding president remains unanswered, as well as the question to Hosni Mubarak was toppled, and the Muslim which extent these revolutions were stirred by Brotherhood took over the power. The rule of internal forces in the Arab States of the Middle the Muslim Brotherhood has fueled Islamist East and North Africa, or influenced by the extremism and stirred internal conflicts that factors from the outside. The question whether have paralyzed Egypt. Such a development the revolutions of the Arabs Spring were just an of the situation in Egypt has jeopardized the acute geopolitical incident or a part of a long- strategic interests of the United States and of term process, also remains unanswered. The their European allies, due to the role Egypt tenth anniversary is an opportunity to reflect has in the control of one of the most important upon and analyze the facts and indications that maritime lines of communication in the world, manifest whom these revolutions benefited, connecting the Indian Ocean though the Red and whom they harmed. Sea and the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean, but also threatened regional interests of the Saudi Arabia due to the close link between the Geopolitical process Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey and its Middle Eastern policy. Judging by the available information and based on estimations of the current political situation The rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab countries, as well as by geopolitical has fueled Islamist extremism and options of the big powers and regional players in the Middle East, everything points to a stirred internal conflicts that have conclusion that this is a long-term political paralyzed Egypt. process, rather than a series of mutually unlinked and spontaneous revolutionary Military coup lead by general Abdel Fattah el- upheavals. The dynamics of the process is Sisi resolved the problem, leaders of the Muslim currently silenced due to a catastrophic failure Brotherhood were imprisoned and el-Sisi dealt in the most powerful Arab states and the impacts with the forces of the Islamist extremism, thus that revolutions have on the MENA region (the upending the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt. Middle East and North Africa) and Europe. It is a Notwithstanding, the military governance IRMO BRIEF 05/2021 2 cannot go on indefinitely and it is expected interventions that followed, especially the one that the internal turmoil will continue. in Libya, were started from the “cold start.” Revolutionary events in Libya have introduced These interventions were prepared in advance a state of complete chaos of rival Islamist and they did not require additional time to be factions lasting to present day. Arab revolution started. They did not react to events – they in Bahrein was not in accordance with the waited for events. Spontaneity of scenarios interests of neither Americans nor of their allies, that unfolded was susceptible from the start. At let alone the interests of Saudi Arabia which had the begging of every revolution an existence of decided to quell the revolution with the use of some form of common organizational nucleus direct military intervention, and with a tacit in the complex of revolutionary movement compliance with the US and its European allies. was evident, except in case of Bahrein. In It is certain that this process is still simmering Bahrein, the rebellious Shiite minority either at the core of the most powerful Arab states, and misunderstood that these revolutions were that this process, temporarily silenced, will be created for it too, or it acted under the influence reactivated to full extent as a continuation of the of Teheran. Arab Spring, when deemed opportune for the It is difficult not to notice an active participation geopolitical interests of the EU and its European of top organized Sunni extremist Islamist groups. allies, in a new variant of Arab Spring 2.0. These groups in fact lead the revolutions in all Revolutions of the Arab Spring are, considering countries involved in the Arab Spring. It was their source and spontaneity, far from what evident that these groups would be in charge they are often presented. These revolutions of the Arab uprisings, and it was witnessed are not spontaneous uprisings of the people, afterwards. Pro-democratic revolutions which but according to their characteristics and were supposed to bring a Western style methodology of implementation, well organized democratization of the politics in the Middle operations with premeditated diplomatic, media East and North Africa, in the end turned out to be and intelligence preparation and support of the Islamist revolutions. No doubt these estimations US and some European powers, primarily of the were evident to the political leaderships of the US United Kingdom and France. This is evident not and European countries which openly supported only from the statements of leading American uprising of the Arab Spring, and to this end used and European politicians, but also through the diplomatic, intelligence and military resources of presence of the elements of intelligence system their countries. Considering this, there is a high and special operations forces on the ground probability that the powers involved in these coming from these countries. Direct military events used the discontent in the Arab states and IRMO BRIEF 05/2021 3 using the help of extremist Islamist movements of the most powerful countries in the world, and organizations, conducted a massive including Russia, has established a process called reconstruction of the geopolitical sphere of the “Partnership for Progress and a Common Future Middle East and North Africa. with the Region of the Broader Middle East and North Africa“ and initiated the violent process of This agenda of the transformation of the democratization of the Middle Eastern region. MENA region had been conceived long before revolutions of the Arab Spring as a part of a broader American and European vision of Devastating effects creation of a “New Middle East”, according to their own geo-economic and geopolitical Devastating effects of the transformation of the interests. Obsolete, old dictatorships in power MENA region so far through the revolutions of in key Arab states were corrupt and secluded the Arab Spring are multiple. These effects are and thus disabling free movement of capital primarily directed toward the MENA region, and investments in the region. Uprisings of Europe and the EU. The Arab Spring on the the Arab Spring were just a new phase of the territory of the MENA region has so far resulted Western policy of transformation of the Middle in fostering of Islamist extremism, rather than East which was initialized on the ground with in democratization and modernization of Arab the military intervention of the Americans and countries, and even in moderate Middle Eastern their allies in Iraq in 2003. political circles, it fostered the concept of a theocratic Islamic state. Instead of broadening of Pro-democratic revolutions in sphere of freedom and economic development the end turned out to be Islamist though toppling of dictatorships, this revolutions. transformation has ignited wars in the Middle East with no end in sight, turning them into interreligious conflicts marked with persecution Initiative of the American strategic vision of of Christian communities in the Middle East. democratization and transformation of the Middle East formulated in the agenda of the The Arab Spring on the territory of Greater Middle East (GME), later renamed into “the Broader Middle East and North Africa the MENA region has so far resulted Initiative” (BMENA), was successfully included in fostering of Islamist extremism. into the conclusions of G7 countries summit in Island in June 2008 by the US. Resolution In the end the events initiated in the Arab Spring revolutions have led, on a geopolitical IRMO BRIEF 05/2021 4 level, to escalation of the centuries-old Sunni- by peace deals of the winners of the World War Shiite conflict, which is still being conducted I, clearly formulated in notorious Sykes-Picot through different proxies.

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