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Analysis and Prognosis Trainee Workbook

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Analysis and Prognosis Trainee Workbook QTP TW1W0X1 1 Feb 00 Air Force Weather Qualification Training Package Analysis and Prognosis Trainee Workbook Providing Standardized Training to “Exploit the Weather for Battle” Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY TRAINING DIVISION 106 Peacekeeper Dr., Ste 2N3 Offutt Air Force Base NE 68113-4039 QTP TW 1W0X1 Acknowledgments Headquarters Air Force Weather Agency Commander Col. Charles W. French Director, Air & Space Science Lt. Col. Nathan R. Feldman Authors MSgt Ron Bridges & Mr. Mike Jimenez Headquarters Air Force Weather Agency Technical Training Branch (DNTT) Editorial Staff Capt Travis Steen & SMSgt Michael J. Przybysz Headquarters Air Force Weather Agency Technical Training Branch (DNTT) Address communications to: Analysis and Prognosis QTP Headquarters Air Force Weather Agency Training Division (DNT) 106 Peacekeeper Dr, Ste 2N3 Offutt AFB, NE 68113-4039 Phone Comm (402) 294-2117 DSN 271-2117 Fax Comm (402) 292-8207 DNS 272-8207 [email protected] ii QTP TW 1W0X1 Table of Contents Page Module 1 – Analyze Surface Weather Features ........................................................................... 2 1.1. Analysis Requirements and Procedures........................................................................... 3 1.2. Southern Hemisphere Analysis Considerations................................................................ 3 1.3. Analysis Tasks ................................................................................................................ 5 1.3.1. Preanalysis Orientation............................................................................................. 5 1.3.2. Isopleth Analysis ...................................................................................................... 6 1.3.3. Data Representativeness ........................................................................................... 8 1.3.4. Analysis Tools.......................................................................................................... 9 1.4. Analysis........................................................................................................................ 12 1.5. Surface Analysis ........................................................................................................... 13 1.6. Analysis Procedures - Isobaric Analysis Rules .............................................................. 16 1.6.1. Frictional Effects.................................................................................................... 17 1.7. Analysis Procedures - Frontal Placement Rules............................................................. 17 1.7.1. Common Errors...................................................................................................... 18 1.7.2. Continuity ............................................................................................................... 18 1.7.3. Winds..................................................................................................................... 18 1.7.4. Analysis Procedures ............................................................................................... 19 1.7.5. Preparing for the Analysis ...................................................................................... 19 1.7.6. Study Regional Surface Analysis............................................................................ 20 1.7.7. Establish Continuity ............................................................................................... 20 1.7.8. Analyze the LAWC ................................................................................................ 20 1.7.9. Frontal Analysis ..................................................................................................... 20 1.8. Nephanalysis................................................................................................................. 25 1.9. Surface Analysis Rules.................................................................................................. 26 1.9.1. The Purpose of Isobaric Analysis............................................................................ 26 1.9.2. Determining Whether a Trough or a Front Exists.................................................... 26 1.9.3. Surface Analysis..................................................................................................... 26 Module 2 –Analyze Upper-Air Weather Features...................................................................... 29 iii QTP TW 1W0X1 2.1. Purpose and Usefulness of Upper-Air Analysis ............................................................. 30 2.2. Constant Pressure Charts............................................................................................... 30 2.3. Uses of Upper-Air Analyses.......................................................................................... 32 2.4. Upper-Air Analysis Depiction........................................................................................... 32 2.4.1. Isallohypses............................................................................................................ 32 2.4.2. Troughs.................................................................................................................. 33 2.4.3. Ridges .................................................................................................................... 33 2.4.4. Labeling ................................................................................................................. 34 2.5. Contour Analysis .......................................................................................................... 34 2.5.1. Isoheights............................................................................................................... 34 2.5.2. Contour Lines......................................................................................................... 34 2.5.3. Height Centers........................................................................................................ 35 2.5.4. Circulations ............................................................................................................ 36 2.5.5. Reanalysis .............................................................................................................. 36 2.6. Rules for Thermal Analysis........................................................................................... 37 2.6.1. Isotherms................................................................................................................ 38 2.6.2. Other Points ........................................................................................................... 39 2.7. Moisture Analysis ......................................................................................................... 40 2.8. Recognizing and Analyzing Upper-Air Fronts............................................................... 41 2.8.1. Rules ...................................................................................................................... 41 2.9. Jet Streams and Analysis............................................................................................... 42 2.9.1. Isotachs .................................................................................................................. 42 2.9.2. Jet Maximum.......................................................................................................... 43 2.9.3. Low-Level Jet (LLJ)............................................................................................... 44 2.9.4. Jet Streams ............................................................................................................. 44 2.9.5. Polar Front Jet ........................................................................................................ 44 2.9.6. Subtropical Jet (STJ) .............................................................................................. 45 2.10. Basic Steps for Analysis............................................................................................... 46 2.10.1. Upper-Level Analysis (300 mb, 250 mb, or 200 mb) ............................................ 46 2.10.2. 500 mb Analysis................................................................................................... 47 2.10.3. 700 mb Analysis................................................................................................... 47 2.10.4. 850 mb Analysis................................................................................................... 49 Manual Upper-Air Analysis Checklist .................................................................................. 50 iv QTP TW 1W0X1 Module 3 – Streamline Analysis ............................................................................................... 56 3.1. Streamline Analysis Terminology and Depiction........................................................... 57 3.2. Uses of streamline analysis ........................................................................................... 58 3.3. Steps in Manual Streamline Analysis ............................................................................ 59 3.4. Rules of Streamline Analysis ........................................................................................ 61 3.4.1. Non-Asymptotes ..................................................................................................... 61 3.4.2. Asymptotes ............................................................................................................
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