The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin: Mediating a Path Towards Regional Water Stability Ali Akanda, Sarah Freeman, and Maria Placht
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The Fletcher School Journal for issues related to Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization Spring 2007 The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin: Mediating a Path Towards Regional Water Stability Ali Akanda, Sarah Freeman, and Maria Placht Since the 1960s, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq initiation of a process that would lead to equitable have been engaged in development works along utilization of the waters. In this context, equitable the Euphrates River, including water reservoirs, does not mean equal use, rather that, “a large agricultural works, and hydropower variety of factors, including population, constructions. The largest effort to date is geography and the availability of alternative Turkey’s South-Eastern Anatolia Project, or resources and so on, can be considered in the 3 Güneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP), which once allocation of water rights.” This paper proposes completed, may divert up to 30 percent of the 1 that a team of external mediators can provide the average annual water flow of the Euphrates. necessary trigger to initiate trilateral discussions, Syria also plans to divert a significant amount of including those that examine the possible trades water for agricultural development in the between water, energy, and food. Euphrates Valley. The estimated percentages of water projected to be necessary for each country’s BACKGROUND development work are: Iraq 65 percent, Turkey 52 2 The longest river in the Middle East, the percent, and Syria 32 percent. These figures add Euphrates originates in the eastern highlands of up to an impossible 149 percent demand for the Turkey, between Lake Van and the Black Sea, and total Euphrates waters. It is clear that, in the near travels a distance of 2,700 kilometers before future, water demands of the riparians (those flowing into the Persian Gulf. Some 40 percent of nations through which the river passes) will the river lies within Turkey, while the rest is surpass the amount of water supplied by the divided among the two downstream riparian Euphrates. countries, 25 percent in Syria and 35 percent in While disputes over water allocation are Iraq. The Euphrates produces a mean annual likely to worsen in the future, tensions have flow of approximately 30 billion cubic meters already increased between the three countries. A (bcm) at its entrance to Syria, which rises to number of crises have occurred in the Euphrates around 32 bcm at the Syrian- River basin due to lack of communication, Iraqi border after gaining the Twice, in 1975 and conflicting approaches, unilateral development, inputs from two Syrian and inefficient water management practices. tributaries, the Balikh and the 1998, war has been Twice, in 1975 and 1998, war has been narrowly Khabur. narrowly averted only averted only by external mediation, and the The flow in the situation is so politically tense that the countries Euphrates is highly seasonal. by external mediation, involved cannot even participate in trilateral talks The stream flow variations and the situation is so about water use. There have been a few efforts to naturally prevent utilization share data and discuss issues bilaterally, yet the of the river’s full water politically tense that countries continue to pursue their uncoordinated potential. Unfortunately, the the countries involved development projects. seasonal distribution of the A successful resolution of this conflict would availability of water does not cannot even participate enable a stable water relationship between coincide with the irrigation in trilateral talks about Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. This requires opening the requirements of the basin. In water use channels of communication between the three an average year, the river leaders over their water allocations, and the © The Fletcher School – Al Nakhlah – Tufts University 160 Packard Avenue – Medford, MA 02155-7082 USA – Tel: +1.617.627.3700 2 Al Nakhlah reaches its peak flow in April and May as the contributed significantly to the termination of winter mountain precipitation melts. The typical these meetings. low water season occurs from July to December, The Arab countries have long accused reaching its lowest point in August and Turkey of violating international water laws with September when water is most needed to irrigate regards to the Euphrates River. Iraq and Syria 4 the region’s winter crops. The average monthly consider the river to be an international hydrograph of the Euphrates shows a variation watercourse which should be treated as an between 33 percent and 275 percent of the annual integrated entity by all the riparian users. average, evidence of the extent of its seasonal However, a significant legal barrier is that Ankara 5 regards the Euphrates as a transboundary river, fluctuations. which is under Turkey's exclusive sovereignty Centuries of water use along these rivers until it flows across the border. According to have given rise to the Mesopotamian culture, Turkey, the Euphrates becomes an international cities, and peoples. To date, remains of ancient river only after it joins the Tigris in lower Iraq to irrigation networks can be found in the desert form the Shatt al-Arab, which then serves as the plains of Syria and Iraq, many of which are still in border between Iraq and Iran until it reaches the use. For centuries, Iraqis and Syrians have used Persian Gulf. Furthermore, Turkey is the only the Euphrates and the Tigris for drinking water as country in the Euphrates basin to have voted well as irrigation, and thus claim to have against the United Nations Convention on the Law of “acquired” rights to uninhibited use of the river, Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses. regardless of the changed hydro-political scenario According to Turkey, if signed, the law would upstream. give "a veto right" to the lower riparians over Turkey’s development plans. Consequently, BARRIERS TO COOPERATION Turkey maintains that the Convention does not 6 The countries bordering the Tigris and apply to them and is thus not legally binding. Euphrates face technical, legal, and regional Increasing regional tensions are an additional barriers to successful cooperation. In the Tigris- barrier to cooperation between the riparian Euphrates basin, data regarding stream flow, countries. Since the 1960s, the three riparian precipitation, evapotranspiration, water countries of the Euphrates have had diversions, return flow, salinity, soil type, and disagreements, of varying degrees of severity, other variables in relation to land resources, are over sharing the river. As the population of the very scarce, incomplete, and disputed at many region steadily increases, the quest for locations. Moreover, agricultural and food self-sufficiency has led to As the largest water crucial information greater demands and in turn, supply-driven water resources development relating to water and land projects have increased. Turkey constructed the resources of the region is first major dam of the basin, commissioning the project in the region, not exchanged on a Keban Dam in 1973, with Syria soon following GAP has caused regular basis among the suit with the Tabqa Dam in 1975. The filling of riparians. A variety of these dams caused a sharp decrease in considerable anxiety to different figures downstream flow, causing Iraq and Syria to Turkey’s downstream concerning availability of exchange mutually hostile accusations and come irrigable land and soil 7 dangerously close to a military confrontation. neighbors, Syria and water requirements in As regional water demand steadily each riparian country are Iraq, who fear that the increased, the riparian countries pursued their available depending on individual water infrastructure plans without any project will lead to the origin of data and meaningful consultation with each other. In 1977, inclination of the experts. reduced river flows and Turkey announced plans for the region’s biggest In 1983, Turkey, Iraq, and water development project ever, the GAP, which leave little water for Syria established the Joint included a massive design of 22 dams and 19 Technical Committee to use in their countries’ hydropower projects. GAP is intended to provide resolve such data irrigation, hydropower, and socio-economic agricultural and energy disputes. However, this development. The project area encompasses group disintegrated after projects southeastern Turkey, around the headlands of the 1993 without having Euphrates and the Tigris rivers, and covers almost made much headway. 10 percent of Turkey’s total population and The uncertain political setting, pursuit of short- surface area. The project is designed to harness term national interests, lack of regularized the vast, untapped water potential of eastern institutions, and incomplete information Turkey. Its area includes about 42 percent of the © The Fletcher School – Al Nakhlah – Tufts University Spring 2007 3 total Tigris-Euphrates watershed within Turkey’s attainable in the face of rapidly expanding 8 boundary. populations. Both the agricultural and energy As the largest water resources development sectors have felt the effects of the dramatic project in the region, GAP has caused increase in requirements needed to fulfill each considerable anxiety to Turkey’s downstream nation’s self-sufficiency quota. neighbors, Syria and Iraq, who fear that the project will lead to reduced river flows and leave (i) Food security little water for use in their countries’ agricultural Syria, Iraq and Turkey have all shifted from and energy projects. One of the early projects of being net exporters of grain to net importers, yet GAP, the construction and filling of the Ataturk Syria and Iraq have even less ability to produce Dam, has been widely portrayed in the Arab sufficient quantities of food staples. Despite its media as a belligerent act. The hydro-political comparative food security, Turkey’s goal for GAP nature of GAP threatens regional stability, and is to turn its southeastern region into a 11 will continue to do so if there is no agreement or breadbasket. For both of the lower riparians, understanding regarding its impacts. Meanwhile, Turkey’s water intensive development threatens Syria is carrying out its irrigation development their irrigation-based agricultural potential.