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Evaluation of Ceasefire-Chicago The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: Evaluation of CeaseFire-Chicago Author: Wesley G. Skogan ; Susan M. Hartnett ; Natalie Bump ; Jill Dubois Document No.: 227181 Date Received: June 2009 Award Number: 2005-MU-MU-0033 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally- funded grant final report available electronically in addition to traditional paper copies. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Evaluation of CeaseFire-Chicago b y Wesley G. Skogan, Susan M. Hartnett, Natalie Bump and Jill Dubois with the assistance of Ryan Hollon and Danielle Morris The research reported here was conducted with the support of Grant Number 2005-MU-MU-0033, National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Findings and conclusions of the research reported here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. March 20, 2008 All CeaseFire reports are available at: www.northwestern.edu/ipr/publications/ceasefire.html For further information contact [email protected] i Contributors to the Report Richard Block Ryan Hollon Catrina Roman Natalie Bump So-young Kim Wesley G. Skogan Andrew Clark Danielle Morris Jonathan Webber Jill Dubois Stacy Pancratz Tao Xie Susan M. Hartnett Andrew Papachristos Jennifer Yahner ii Abstract The report presents the findings of an evaluation of CeaseFire, a Chicago-based violence prevention program. The program is administered by the Chicago Project for Violence Prevention (CPVP). Formed in 1999, it began to expand in Chicago and elsewhere in Illinois during the 2000s. At its peak it was active in about 25 program sites. CeaseFire focused on changing the behavior of a small number of carefully selected members of the community, those with a high chance of either "being shot or being a shooter" in the immediate future. Violence interrupters worked on the street, mediating conflicts between gangs and intervening to stem the cycle of retaliatory violence that threatens to break out following a shooting. Outreach workers counseled young clients and connected them to a range of services. CeaseFire's interventions are "theory driven." The program is built upon a coherent theory of behavior that specifies how change agents could be mobilized to address some of the immediate causes of violence: norms regarding violence, on-the-spot decision making by individuals at risk of triggering violence, and the perceived risks and costs of involvement in violence among the targeted population. Some of the program's core concepts and strategies were adapted from the public health field, which has shown considerable success in addressing issues such as smoking, seat belt use, condom use, and immunization. The evaluation of CeaseFire had both process and outcome components. The process portion of the project involved documenting how the program actually looked in the field. This included issues involved in selecting target neighborhoods, choosing local host organizations, and staffing, training, and management practices. The outcome evaluation used statistical models, crime hot spot maps and gang network analyses to assess the program's impact on shootings and killings in selected CeaseFire sites. In each case, changes in the target areas after the introduction of the program were contrasted with trends in matched comparison areas. A large survey of clients found that they were high risk on many indicators. Once in the program they saw their outreach workers frequently, and many were active participants in CeaseFire activities. In interviews, clients reported getting a great deal of assistance with the problems they brought to the program. These included needing a job, getting back into school or a GED program, and wanting to disengage from a gang An examination of the impact of CeaseFire on shootings and killings found that violence was down by one measure or another in most of the areas that were examined in detail. Crime mapping found decreases in the size and intensity of shooting hot spots due to the program in more than half of the sites. There were significant shifts in gang homicide patterns in most of these areas due to the program, including declines in gang involvement in homicide and retaliatory killings. iii Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction Program Theory..................................................... 1-1 About the Evaluation................................................ 1-14 About the Report................................................... 1-16 Chapter 2: Selecting Sites and Host Organizations A “Host Organization" Model for Program Implementation.. 2-1 Organization Structure................................................ 2-3 The Sites and Host Organizations....................................... 2-5 Crime Rates and Site Locations........................................ 2-18 Trends in Program Capacity........................................... 2-19 Issues in Site and Host Selection....................................... 2-20 Chapter 3: Staffing and Funding the Program Staffing the Program................................................. 3-1 Funding the Program................................................ 3-18 Chapter 4: Client Outreach Outreach Work...................................................... 4-2 Clients and Their Problems........................................... 4-14 Issues in Serving Clients............................................. 4-31 Chapter 5: Violence Intervention Methodology....................................................... 5-2 Where They Came From.............................................. 5-4 Managing Violence Interrupters........................................ 5-8 Daily Issues in Violence Interruption.. 5-12 Chapter 6: Community Partners Collaborator Involvement in CeaseFire. 6-1 Case Studies in Collaboration: The Police.. 6-11 Case Studies in Collaboration: The Clergy. .............................. 6-21 Chapter 7: The Impact of CeaseFire on Violent Crime Impact on Trends in Shootings and Killings. 7-1 Impact on Crime Hot Spots........................................... 7-11 Impact on Gang Homicide Networks.................................... 7-23 Impact Analysis Summary............................................ 7-37 Data and Design Limitations.......................................... 7-39 iv Chapter 8: Summary of the Findings Selecting and Organizing Sites......................................... 8-1 Staffing the Program................................................. 8-4 Funding the Program................................................. 8-6 Client Outreach..................................................... 8-7 Intervening in Violence.............................................. 8-10 Forming Community Partnerships...................................... 8-13 Impact of CeaseFire................................................. 8-14 Appendix A: Intervention Analysis of the CeaseFire Program Appendix B: Impact of CeaseFire on Geographical Crime Patterns Appendix C: The Impact of CeaseFire on Gang Homicide Networks Appendix D: CeaseFire Staff Survey Methods Report Appendix E: CeaseFire Collaborator Survey Methods Report Appendix F: CeaseFire Client Survey Methods Report List of Figures Figure 1-1: CeaseFire’s Program Theory........................................ 1-4 Figure 2-1: African American Sites............................................ 2-7 Figure 2-2: Latino Sites.................................................... 2-13 Figure 2-3: Diverse Sites................................................... 2-16 Figure 2-4: Homicide, Poverty and CeaseFire Sites. 2-18 Figure 2-5: Number of Operational Sites by Quarter.. 2-19 Figure 3-1: Yearly CeaseFire Funding......................................... 3-20 Figure 4-1: Client Problems and CeaseFire Assistance. 4-22 Figure 6-1: Number of Community Partners by Site and Sector. 6-6 Figure 6-2: Involvement in CeaseFire: Selected Activities. 6-8 Figure 6-3: Collaborator Involvement by Site. 6-9 Figure 7-1: CeaseFire Program and Comparison Areas. 7-2 Figure 7-2: Monthly All Shots in Southwest, 1991-2006. 7-6 Figure 7-3: Changes in Shooting Hot Spots Auburn-Gresham. 7-15 Figure 7-4: Hot Spot Percent Change Auburn-Gresham. 7-16 Figure 7-5: Changes in Shooting Hot Spots Englewood. 7-19 Figure 7-6: Hot Spot Percent Change Englewood. 7-20 Figure 7-7: Networks of Gang Homicide....................................... 7-24 Figure 7-8: Gang Homicide Trends in Auburn Gresham.. 7-28 Figure 7-9: Gang Networks in Auburn Gresham.. 7-31 Figure 7-10: Gang Homicide Trends in Englewood. 7-32 Figure 7-11: Gang Networks in Englewood. 7-34 v List of Tables Table 2-1: African American CeaseFire Site Demography. 2-6 Table 2-2: Host Organizations for African American Sites.. 2-9 Table 2-3: Latino CeaseFire Site Demography. ................................. 2-12 Table 2-4: Host Organizations for Latino Sites. 2-14 Table 2-5: Diverse Sites and Programs Demography. 2-15 Table 2-6: Host Organizations for Diverse Sites and Programs. 2-17 Table 3-1: Staff Satisfaction with Training and Policies. 3-14 Table 4-1: Spending Time With Clients........................................ 4-9 Table 4-2: Outreach Worker Assessments of Clients' Problems. 4-12
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