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Houston Multifamily Report Spring 2018

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Houston’s Balancing Act Multifamily Report Spring 2018 Rent Growth Continues Home Values Reach Cycle Peak Development Targets Core Submarkets HOUSTON MULTIFAMILY Market Analysis Bayou City Makes Buoyancy Its Brand Spring 2018 Houston’s housing market has been resilient, despite the natural disasters Contacts that have severely affected parts of the metro. During the first months of Paul Fiorilla last year, the city struggled with overbuilding and limited rent growth, but Associate Director of Research the fourth quarter of 2017 displayed stronger performance for the sector, as [email protected] Hurricane Harvey pushed the multifamily market closer to an equilibrium. (800) 866-1124 x5764 Employment growth was led by professional and business services, a Jack Kern sector that added almost 15,000 jobs. Houston has established itself as a Director of Research and Publications distribution hub, and the need for warehouse product has spiked. Amazon, [email protected] FedEx, Ikea and Best Buy are among the largest companies that either (800) 866-1124 x2444 opened major distribution sites in the metro or plan to do so. Moreover, Houston Airports’ five-year, $2 billion capital improvement program might Author attract more investors to the area. The construction industry is expected to Laura Calugar improve steadily, thanks to rebuilding efforts and the development of large- Associate Editor scale projects, including the $820 million Houston Ship Channel marine terminal in Pasadena, Texas. Despite worries about investing in areas with high flooding risk, interest in local assets has been fairly strong. As construction remains active— with 3,600 units delivered year-to-date, 14,000 underway—rents will likely improve at a moderate clip. We expect rents to rise by 2.3% in 2018. Recent Houston Transactions Hanover Hermann Park The Vista on Genner City: Houston City: Houston Buyer: The Hanover Co. Buyer: Dalcor Purchase Price: $80 MM Purchase Price: $70 MM Price per Unit: $202,020 Price per Unit: $86,420 Remington Park Knox at Westchase City: Houston City: Houston Buyer: American Realty Investors Buyer: Knightwest Capital Purchase Price: $57 MM Purchase Price: $55 MM Price per Unit: $132,399 Price per Unit: $105,818 On the cover: Photo by Zview/iStockphoto.com 2 2010 2011 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Houston) 2010 4.0% 2012 $160,000 2011 2013 Transactions:$140,000 Price Per Unit (Houston) 3.0% 4.0% 2012 $120,000 2014 $160,000 $100,000 2013 $140,000 2.0% 2015 $80,000 3.0% $120,000 2014 $60,000 2016 $100,000 1.0% $40,000 2.0% 2015 2017 $80,000 $60,000 0.0% 2016 1.0% $40,000 2017 -1.0% 2010 0.0% 2011 -1.0% 2010 2012 Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Houston) 2011 Houston 2013 2012 2014 Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Houston) Supply: Percentage of Stock (Houston) Houston 2013 2015 Dec-14 National 2014 2016 Supply: 3.5%Percentage of Stock (Houston) 2015 2017 Dec-14 National Mar-15 2016 2018 3.0% 3.5% 2017 2.5% Mar-15 2018 3.0% Jun-15 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% Jun-15 Sep-15 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% Sep-15 0.5% Dec-15 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% Dec-15 Mar-16 Houston 0.0% Mar-16 Supply: Development Pipeline as of Feb 2018 (Houston) Houston Jun-16 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Supply: Development Pipeline as of Feb 2018 (Houston) JunNational-16 Sep-16 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD National Sep-16 Dec-16 Rent Trends Dec-16 Mar-17 Mar-17 Jun-17 Rents in Houston rose 2.9% year-over-year through February, the first time in almost three years when rents increased at a higher rate than the national average—2.7% through the interval. Houston rents Jun-17 Sep-17 had been sliding for 18 months prior to Hurricane Harvey, but reversed course and improvedNational during the last months of 2017. However, at $1,089, the average rent still trails the national figure by $275. Sep-17 Dec-17 National EmploymentTransactions: and Total population Volume (Houston) growth, along with displaced residents14,296 Units seeking housing, contributed to a significant rise in rental demand. Growth was led by the higher-end Lifestyle segment, which increased Dec-17 $4,000 Houston to $1,376Transactions: in the Total12 Volumemonths (Houston) ending in February, a 3.2% uptick year-over-year.14,296 Units The working-class Renter- by-Necessity segment continued to consolidate and rose by 2.5% to $852. Average occupancy in 10,895 Units Houston stabilized properties$3,000$4,000 was 93.4% as of January, making Houston one of the two metros—along with Dallas—where occupancy did not slide. Planned 10,895 Units $2,000$3,000 With sudden demand created in the aftermath of extreme weather events, rents15,504 increased Units in about 90% of the metro’s submarkets. Magnolia and Porter—twoPlanned northern submarkets where Harvey’s $1,000$2,000 15,504 Units impact was minimal—had the highest increase in rent year-over-year throughProspective February: 9.1% and 7.6%. However, core submarkets such as the Museum District ($1,905) and West End/Downtown ($1,813) remain the most$1,000 expensive in the metro. Yardi Matrix expects rents to rise by 2.3% in 2018. Prospective $0 Houston vs. National Rent Growth Under Construction $0 Rent: YoY vs National (Houston) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Under Construction 2018 Rent: YoY6.0% vs National (Houston) 4.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0% -4.0% -2.0% Volume in Millions -4.0% Volume (Sequential in Millions 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) Source: YardiMatrix HoustonRent: Rent Lifestyle Growth vs RBN (Houston) by Asset Class Number of Properties Rent: Lifestyle10.0% vs RBN (Houston) 8.0% Number of Properties 10.0%6.0% 350 4.0% 8.0% 300 2.0% 6.0% 350 250 4.0%0.0% -2.0% 300 2.0% 200 -4.0% 0.0% 250 150 -2.0%-6.0% 200 -4.0% 100 150 -6.0% 50 Houston 100 0 50 Source: YardiMatrix Houston (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) 0 National National Lifestyle Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Renter-by-Necessity Houston Multifamily | Spring 2018 3 Economic Snapshot Houston added 46,000 jobs in 2017, a 1.5% rate of employment growth year-over-year and only 20 basis points below the national rate. Despite some job losses in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, Houston is one of the country’s top cities for job creation. Professional and business services led growth by adding almost 15,000 positions, but education and health services and manufacturing also added 17,600 jobs combined. Many major employers were active in the area: Ikea inked a 1 million-square- foot warehouse lease in Baytown, Amazon built an 855,000-square-foot fulfillment center in the Pinto Business Park and Norvin Healthcare Properties added the 505,000-square-foot Pin Oak Park medical Transactions: Price Per Unit (Houston) and office campus in suburban Houston to its portfolio. $160,000 $140,000 Although it lost 1,200 jobs last year, the$120,000 construction sector is likely to pick up. Stimulated by the rise of e-commerce and by the rebounding price$100,000 of oil, demand for industrial space in Houston is on an upward $80,000 swing. One of the largest projects underway$60,000 is the 1 million-square-foot Amazon distribution center in Northwest Far. Tariffs on steel and $40,000aluminum will definitely have an impact on employment in the 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1 1 1 01 01 01 metro, where the number of jobs in the energy20 20 industry2 201 20 is2 nearly2 201 double20 the national figure. Houston National Houston’s office market is fighting to recover. In one of the largest recorded transactions, the 4.2 1 3 5 7 1 12 1 1 1 010 0 0 0 014 0 016 0 million-square-foot2 2 2 2 2 Houston2 2 2Center traded for $875 million. Houston vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Houston) 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 4 6 6 7 7 -15 -15 -15 16 -16 -1 1 -17 -17 p c r- p c- r-1 un e e a un e a un-1 Dec-1 Mar-15 J S D M J S De M J Sep Dec Houston National Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted) Supply: Percentage of Stock (Houston) 3.5% Houston Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) 3.0% Current Employment Year Change 2.5% Code Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 2.0% 60 Professional and Business Services 487 15.8% 14,900 3.2% 301.5%Manufacturing 231 7.5% 8,800 4.0% 651.0%Education and Health Services 396 12.8% 8,800 2.3% 900.5%Government 423 13.7% 8,000 1.9% 550.0%Financial Activities 160 5.2% 3,800 2.4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 70 Leisure and Hospitality 316 10.3% 2,800 0.9% 80 Other Services National 109 Houston 3.5% 1,800 1.7% 40 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 627 20.3% -600 -0.1% Supply:50 DevelopmentInformation Pipeline as of Feb 2018 (Houston) 32 1.0% -1,100 -3.3% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 300 9.7% -1,200 -0.4% Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10,895 Units 14,296 Units Houston Multifamily | Spring 2018 4 15,504 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction Transactions: Total Volume (Houston) $4,000 350 300 $3,000 250 200 $2,000 150 100 $1,000 50 $0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Volume in Millions Number of Properties Rent: YoY vs National (Houston) 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houston National Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Houston) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability The median home value in Houston hit $206,564 in 2017, a new cycle peak, up 36.8% from the 2009 mark.
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