LSRCP Fall Chinook Salmon Program Review

Redds counts Adult counts Summary and August 6-7, 2013 Future Direction Clarkston, WA Management Puzzle Pieces

Abundance Lyons Ferry Mitigation Hatchery

FCAP

Productivity

Habitat Nez Perce Distribution Tribal Hatchery Harvest

Idaho Power Diversity Communication Company

Presentation Outline

• Population structure and status • Hatchery operations and goals – Release – Return • Legal mandates • Management assumptions • Adaptive management – Actions taken – Future direction

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tel. 206.860.3405 fax. 206.860.3400 a

Average Fall Chinook Adult Returns to Snake River Basin by Decade 600,000 500,000 = Natural/wild Origin 400,000 = Hatchery Origin 300,000 200,000 100,000 ? 0 Pre 40's 50's 60's 70's 80's 90's 00's 10's 40's Status Fall Chinook Salmon Spawner Distribution Upstream of Lower Granite Dam

5 year average redd distribution

Snake (59%) Clearwater (34%) Grande Ronde (4%) Imnaha (2%) Salmon (1%) Hatchery operations Hatchery Release Totals in Snake River Basin

7,000,000

Yearling Subyearling 5 year average = 5,772,708 (99% of goal) Goal – 5,828,000

6,000,000 Goal – 5,500,000

5,000,000

Goal – 4,100,000 4,000,000

3,000,000 Number Released

2,000,000

1,000,000

0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Release Year Status

LyonsFall Ferry Chinook – 18,300 Salmon EscapementNPTH -3,750 to Snake River Basin IPC – 2,700

50000 45000 Management Escapement Goal (24,750) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Status Fall Chinook Salmon Escapement to Snake River Basin

Natural 18000 16000 14000 Natural- Origin Escapement Goal (14,360) 12000 10000 8000 6,342 6000 ICTRT minimum viability threshold = 3,000 4000 2000 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Harvest Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon 2010 Adult fall Chinook disposition estimates, hatchery + natural Total SR fall Chinook in 2010 Conservation Includes ocean and freshwater 50% harvest 107,713 5% 15% 15% Consumption* 46% 50% Commercial 20% Sport

Treaty

Natural spawning Broodstock *Non-selective fisheries Legal Mandates Snake River Fall Chinook Hatchery Production • Lower Snake River Compensation Plan – Public Law 94-587, 99-662, 103-316 • Idaho Power Company Hells Canyon Settlement Agreement • Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery - Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning And Conservation Act 16 U.S.C. § 839-839h • U.S. vs. Oregon 2008-2017 Management Agreement • Columbia Basin Treaty Tribes Accords • FCRPS Biological Opinion • ESA/Hatchery Genetic Management Plan Management Objectives

1) Natural production - Maintain and enhance natural production in supplemented. 2) Life History - Maintain life history characteristics and genetic diversity in supplemented and unsupplemented populations. 3) Genetic Diversity - Operate hatchery programs so that life history characteristics and genetic diversity of hatchery fish mimic natural fish. 4) Non-Target Populations - Effects of hatchery programs on non-target (same species) populations remain within acceptable limits. 5) Fisheries - Restore and maintain treaty-reserved tribal and non-treaty fisheries. Management Objectives

6) Hatchery Operations - Operate hatchery programs to achieve optimal production effectiveness while meeting priority management objectives for natural production enhancement, diversity, harvest, impacts to non-target populations. 7) Status and Trends - Understand the current status and trends of natural-origin population and their habitats. 8) Communications - Coordinate monitoring and evaluation activities and communicate program findings to resource managers. Management Objective 2 - Maintain life history characteristics and genetic diversity in supplemented and unsupplemented populations.

Assumptions a) Adult life history characteristics in supplemented populations remain similar to pre-supplementation population characteristics - UNKNOWN. b) Juvenile life history characteristics in supplemented populations remain similar to pre-supplemented population characteristics - INVALID. c) Population level and within population genetic characteristics are not suppressed by supplementation – VALID/UNKNOWN. Management Assumption Status

34% 31% Valid Unknown 7 Invalid 6 35%

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2 Number of Assumptions

1

0 Nature of Unknown Assumptions

• Reproductive Success • Spawner Distribution • Natural Productivity • Percent Hatchery Origin Spawners (pHOS) and Natural Origin Broodstock (pNOB) • Age at Return for NORs • Sub-population Genetic Structure • Ocean and Mainstem Harvest • Hydro-system Operations • Habitat Function and Capacity • Delisting Criteria • Standardized Database(s) Nature of Invalid Assumptions

• Post release survival • Juvenile emigration timing • Age at return • Accurate run forecasting • Adequate trapping facilities • Full utilization of habitat • Relationship of VSP to habitat • Regional Communications

Adaptive Management Hatchery Operations Past and Present

Category Past Present Hatchery Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry Facilities FCAP (acclimation ponds) Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery Irrigon/Oxbow Purpose Egg Bank/Mitigation Supplementation/ Mitigation Release Downstream of Lower Upstream and Downstream Location Granite Dam of Lower Granite Dam (limited by broodstock) Broodstock Mostly HxH HxN (up to 30% natural) (limited by high # strays) Adaptive Management Actions

Hatchery • Selective mating • Increased pNOB • Rearing vessel netting and cleaning • Representative marking Hydro-system • Summer spill • Transportation Habitat • Summer flow augmentation • Stable spawning flows • Reduced power peaking Harvest • Abundance based • Non-selective and selective Harvest Snake River wild fall Chinook river mouth run size and total in-river harvest rates

18000 0.7 Fall Chinook to mouth 16000 Total Treaty and non-Treaty harvest rate 0.6 14000 Ave. pre ESA 12000 harvest rate 0.5 56% 10000 0.4 8000 Ave. post ESA 6000 0.3 harvest rate 4000 24% 0.2

Return to Columbia River mouth River Columbia to Return 2000 * Dam Bonneville above rate Harvest 0 0.1

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year *ESA listed Things we now know • Adult abundance has increased significantly • Getting closer to meeting in and out of basin mitigation goals • Natural-origin adult abundance above delisting criteria. • Total abundance is well below historical levels • Adult distribution via annual aerial redd counts. • 70/30 rule between Snake and Clearwater. • Large number of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds • Significant mainstem state and tribal harvest via coded- wire tag recoveries and creel surveys. Things we now know, and don’t know • Fall Chinook abundance has increased – changes in management or environmental improvements? • Management effects? – Hatchery production/Supplementation • Meeting full broodstock objectives • Increased number of naturally-spawning hatchery fish • Reduced proportion of out-of-basin strays • Smaller size and age at return – Decreased ocean and lower Columbia River harvest rates • Allowed for increased adult returns to the Snake River – Corridor improvements = survival benefits • Summer transport/spill • Environmental effects? (ocean, long-term weather patterns) – Increased SARs/productivity - similar to other stocks/species

Things we don’t know • The level of contribution to increased adult abundance from supplementation compared to contributions from large increases in total hatchery production & higher SARs • The contribution/influence of hatchery fish on natural fish productivity • The productive capacity of remaining habitat (altered and dynamic). • Whether hatchery programs are affecting the life history structure of the natural population • Long-term viability of an ESU with only a single extant population spatial structure and diversity FCRPS BiOp including Accords - 2019

Snake River fall Chinook and their Habitats

Pacific Salmon Treaty (PSC) - 2019 Critical Uncertainties • Definition and quantification of mini-jack and jacks. • Origin assignment of individual unmarked/untagged fish. • Validation of run-reconstruction estimates of natural-origin returns. • Reproductive success of hatchery-origin returns. • Distribution of hatchery-origin spawners. • Variable harvest rates and CWT sampling on clipped and unclipped.

New Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation

• Parentage Based Tagging. • Adult fall back and release site fidelity. • Run-reconstruction. • Spawning, rearing, and overwintering locations. • Juvenile life cycle modeling. • Genetics of subpopulation structure. • Adaptive management/research findings symposium.

Fidelity and Fallback

Return Reach Downstream Lower of Lower Granite Clearwater Lower Snake Upper Snake Salmon Release Group Granite Dam Reservoir River River River River Lower Clearwater SY Lower Clearwater Y (6) (12) 85.9% 12.7% 2.1% 0.0% Upper Clearwater SY Lower Snake SY Lower Snake Y (3) (9) 29.3% 59.3% 9.0% 0.7% Grande Ronde SY Couse Creek SY Upper Snake SY Upper Snake Y (4) (9) 1.2% 43.2% 56.0% 0.0% Lyons Ferry Y Lyons Ferry SY Performance Percent Hatchery Origin Spawners (pHOS)

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 05-10 Average 0.4 pHOS (all) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Performance Retrospective Run-Reconstruction

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000 10-year Geomean

6,000 old 4,455

new 6,342 4,000

2,000 Natural Fall Chinook Return to to LGR Return Chinook Fall Natural

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year Things we will know by 2018 • total escapement upstream of Lower Granite Dam (LGR), • abundance of natural-origin returns (NOR), • abundance of hatchery-origin returns, • percentage of the hatchery-origin fish in the naturally spawning population (pHOS) at the population scale, • percentage of the natural-origin fish used in hatchery broodstocks (pNOB), • genetic diversity and effective population size of natural and hatchery-origin population segments , Things we will know by 2018 • spawning distribution, • fidelity of subyearling hatchery production groups to release site areas, • spawning distribution upstream of LGR of Lyons Ferry Hatchery on-station released fish, • magnitude of predation on juvenile fall Chinook by smallmouth bass and channel catfish in the Snake River, • best management strategy for juvenile passage through hydrosystem (COE Consensus Study), Things we will know by 2018 • age-at-return for natural and hatchery-origin fish, • relative performance of various hatchery life stage at release and release type strategies. Things we may have an improved understanding by 2018 • productivity of the naturally spawning population, • percentage of the hatchery-origin fish in the naturally spawning population (pHOS) at spawning aggregate scales, • relative magnitude juvenile production from some spawning aggregates, • density dependent relationships between spawner abundance and juvenile production, • relationship of juvenile fish growth and survival to food availability and abundance, • range of juvenile spatial and temporal rearing patterns,

Things we may have an improved understanding by 2018 • heritability of age-at-emigration, and • pre-season run forecasts. Things we will still lack an understanding by 2018 • relative reproductive success of hatchery and natural-origin spawners, • magnitude of mini-jack returns and their contribution to natural spawning, • differential use of habitats by hatchery and natural-origin fish, • abundance of basin-wide juvenile production, • impact of sturgeon on juvenile production (egg consumption), Things we will still lack an understanding by 2018 • impact of avian predation on juvenile fish upstream of Lower Granite Dam, and • ecological processes supported (or hindered) by an abundance (or scarcity) of natural spawners. Hatchery operations Cooperative and Joint Management Effort

Funding Implementers Source Hatcheries LSRCP WDFW, NPT, IPC, CTUIR, ODFW, BPA/NPCC IDFG IPC Monitoring LSRCP Redd counts (NPT, IPC, USFWS, and BPA/NPCC WDFW) Evaluation BLM Juvenile behavior and survival IPC (USFWS, NPT, USGS, NOAA) COE Hatchery performance (WDFW, NPT) PSC Run reconstruction (WDFW, NPT, IPC, NOAA, UI, USvOR-TAC)

“Our fate and the fate of the fish are linked.”

Diversity Acknowledgements

• Hatchery Staffs

• M&E and Harvest Monitoring Staffs

• Fish Marking

• LSRCP

• Extensive coordination and collaboration between states, tribes, feds, and Idaho Power Company

Mark Schuck Retirement Party – September 7th