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Development of a Holistic Index for Safer Roads

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Development of a Holistic Index for Safer Roads DEVELOPMENT OF A HOLISTIC INDEX FOR SAFER ROADS By ABEER KHUDHUR JAMEEL A thesis submitted to the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Civil Engineering School of Engineering College of Engineering and Physical Sciences The University of Birmingham December 2018 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. ABSTRACT Generally, road safety is an important issue. Some global and national organisations have recognised the size of this problem and introduced the “safe system approach ” approach as a successful guide for road safety management. The concept of this approach considers road safety as a system compiled of the elements of road infrastructure, mobility, and vehicles; which all should be designed to accommodate the vulnerability of the road users. This corrected the traditional view which considered road-user behaviour as the main contributing factor to the road safety problem. The question raised in this research is to what extent the safe system approach contributes to the national road safety strategic plans? To answer this question, an assessment of road safety performance is needed. For this, the research aims to develop a holistic and understandable index of road safety to use as a tool of assessment. This index can be used to rate and rank countries according to the effectiveness of the national road safety strategic plan; to monitor the progress of these plans towards a set target; warn of weaknesses early; and suggest solutions. To develop the road safety assessment index (RSAI), its thematic indicators are identified based on the components of the safe system approach which cover safer road infrastructure and mobility, safer vehicles, and safer road-user behaviour. A sub model is developed for each thematic indicator, along with their individual indicators that can give a full reflection. The road assessment programme (RAP) is considered in this research to identify the indicators of safer road infrastructure and mobility, as it is the most valid methodology ii recommended by the global organisations to assess the features of road design. A procedure for extending the RAP methodology is developed and evaluated for this purpose. The new car assessment programme (NCAP) of rating cars according to the safety requirements is chosen to identify the most comprehensive indicator of the safer vehicle sub model. While seven indicators are selected to form the sub model of safer road-user behaviour. The chosen indicators are weighted through investigating two methods, equal and unequal weightings, to identify the weights that reflect the rational importance of each indicator in saving road users’ lives. Then the indicators are aggregated using the simple linear additive aggregation method to form the RSAI’s preliminary models. These models are evaluated through comparing their results with the rate of road fatalities, to test their validity in achieving their purpose and decide the final form of the RSAI model. The results show the suitability of the RSAI model in assessing the road safety level, and in replacing the crash data for benchmarking and ranking countries. The usage of the RSAI in rating countries according to the effectiveness of their strategic plan of road safety and the level of road severity is investigated through developing a specific methodology. The usage of the RSAI in identifying the rate of progress of the national road safety plans towards a set target is also investigated. In addition, a methodology for suggesting solutions is developed, based on the results of a sensitivity analysis conducted to measure the change in the RSAI resulting from an individual improvement in one indicator or multiple improvements in two or more indicators. The multi-usage of the proposed RSAI enhances its value as a strategic decision-making tool. iii DEDICATION To My parents, My teachers, My sisters and brothers in law My nieces and nephews All my family and friends iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude and endless thanks to my parents Mr Khudhur J. Al-Ani and Mrs Hana A. Jumaah for all they have done for me to help me achieve my dream of completing my PhD. I would also like to thank my supervisor, Dr Harry Evdorides. I am truly grateful for his support, inspiration, and guidance that has enabled me to overcome difficulties in conducting the research, and has helped to improve my research skills, and to present my thesis in its best structure. I want to express my deep appreciation to the Iraqi Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Faculty of Engineering, Highway and Transportation Engineering Department for awarding me a scholarship to study in the UK, and for their support and encouragement. Special thanks to the heads of Highway and Transportation Engineering Department during my study, Assis. Prof. Dr Ali J. Kadhem, Assis Prof. Dr Abdulhaq H. Alhaddad, and Assis Prof. Dr Zainab A. Alqaissi. Special thanks to all my colleagues in the Department of Highway and Transportation Engineering. I am particularly grateful for the continuous contact during the time I have been in the UK given by the Iraqi cultural attaché in London, especially Dr Sama, Mr Yaser, Mr Muaied and Mr Ali. I would like to express my great appreciation to Mr James Bradford and Dr Steve Lawson from the International Road Assessment Programme for their advice and support of this research; especially Mr Bradford for assisting to with gaining access to some of the necessary data. I am thankful and grateful to Prof. Dr Jamal A. F. Al-Ani for helping me to pass the difficult requirements of the sponsor by being my guarantor. v I warmly thank my sisters Suheer, Taiseer, Taghreed; my brothers-in-law Jamal, Mohammed, and Muhanned; and the stars of my life Aisha, Saif, Omer, Mariam, Sama, Fatimah, Mustafa, Mohammed, Wisam, and Ibrahim for being around me when I need effective support. My special thanks are extended to my colleagues Maha, Atheer, Raid, Arum, Desy, Harith, Mohammed, Maitham. Samih, Fathiyah and Azmi for the beneficial academic discussions. Massive thanks to my friends who have been my family away from home: Dania, Siham Shatha, Maha, Maiss, Anfal, Dina, Media, Nisreen, Shahad, Ghada, Zainab, Narmin, Hanan, Liwen Bing, Arzu, Jade and Sophia. Finally, this thesis was proofread for the conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Janet's Proofreading Service. Many thanks to Mrs Janet Hingley for proofreading my thesis. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter One: Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Road Safety Performance Indices .................................................................. 4 1.3 Problem Statement ......................................................................................... 5 1.4 The Scope of the Study .................................................................................. 7 1.5 The Aim and Objectives of the Research ...................................................... 7 1.6 Thesis Structure ............................................................................................. 9 Chapter Two: Safe System Approach ........................................................................... 12 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 12 2.2 The Concept of the “Safe system approach ” .............................................. 13 2.3 Safer Road Infrastructure ............................................................................. 14 2.3.1 Road safety assessment tools ......................................................................... 17 2.4 Safer Speed .................................................................................................. 21 2.5 Safer Vehicles .............................................................................................. 22 2.6 Safer Road User Behaviour ......................................................................... 24 2.6.1 Speeding ........................................................................................................ 25 2.6.2 Psychoactive substances ................................................................................ 26 2.6.3 Using protecting systems ............................................................................... 29 2.6.4 Using mobile phones during driving ............................................................. 30 2.7 Summary ...................................................................................................... 31 Chapter Three:Review of the Road Safety Indicators and Method of Aggregation 33 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 33 3.2 Selecting Indicators .....................................................................................
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