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Gloucestershire Health Needs
20th January 2020 Dr Becky Maclean, Consultant in Public Health, Gloucestershire County Council
Overview
• What is the population health profile across Gloucestershire? – Population density, – Age distribution, – Health and disability deprivation, – Distribution of those likely to make greatest use of hospital services. • How does Gloucestershire’s health compare with rest of England? • What particular priorities does Gloucestershire have in terms of addressing health needs and health inequalities?
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Where do people live and who lives where?
Where do people live?
Total population by district, 2018 140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000 Number people of Number 40,000
20,000
0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury
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Where do people live?
Who lives where? – 0 to 4 year olds
Number of people aged 0-4, 2018 9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Number people of Number 3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury
• Nationally and locally there is higher use of emergency and urgent care by young children.
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Who lives where? – people aged 65 years and over
Who lives where? – people aged 85 years and over
Number of people aged 85+, 2018 4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 Number people of Number
1,000
500
0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury
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Population Projections
Projected population change by age group, 2016 to 2041 400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
2016 200,000 2026 2041
Number Number of people 150,000
100,000
50,000
0 0-19 20-64 65+
The English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
The IMD combines seven domains : • Income • Employment • Education, Skills and Training • Health Deprivation and Disability • Crime • Barriers to Housing and Services • Living Environment
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Deprivation
Health deprivation and disability This takes into account: • Years of potential life lost, • Comparative illness and disability ratio, • Acute morbidity, • Mood and anxiety.
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Long Term Conditions Mean Number of Long Term Conditions per Patient by PCN 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Number of long term term conditions long Number of 0.3
0.2
0.1
0 Cheltenham Cheltenham Cheltenham St North South The Forest of Aspen Gloucester Hadwen, North and Berkeley Vale Severn Health Stroud Tewkesbury Central Peripheral Paul's Cotswolds Cotswolds Dean Inner City Quedgeley South Cotswold Newent and and Rosebank Gloucester Staunton and West Cheltenham Medical Practice Cheltenham Cotswolds Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud and Berkeley Vale Tewkesbury
CCG Average
Population segmentation
• Wellbeing Acorn is used in the following slides
• Wellbeing Acorn is a tool that combines geography with information such as age, gender, interests, spending habits, and so on that enables the grouping of households with similar characteristics
• It provides an indication of the likely health and wellbeing of the population based on modelled data.
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Percentage of population classed as Group 1 30%
25%
20%
15%
% of population of % 10%
5%
0%
Group 1 are likely to have • higher levels of illness and potentially make greater use of services due to greater need • some of the highest levels of smoking • some of the oldest people in the most deprived neighbourhoods • Issues around isolation and mental wellbeing
Percentage of population classed as Group 2 30%
25%
20%
15%
% of population of % 10%
5%
0%
Group 2 are likely to have • Multiple unhealthy behaviours which could put their health at risk in the future. • Relatively high rates of smoking along with some alcohol concerns.
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How does Gloucestershire’s health compare with rest of England?
Life expectancy
• The health of people in Gloucestershire is generally better than England. • Life expectancy at birth is better than the England average for both genders. • However inequality in life expectancy at birth persists:
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0 Inequality Inequality in lifeexpectancy at birth (2015-17) 0.0 Male Female
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Integrated Care System
The vision of our ICS is “to improve health and wellbeing, we believe that by all working better together, in a more joined up way, and using the strengths of individuals, carers and local communities, we will transform the quality of care and support we provide to local people.”
Our long term ambition is to have a Gloucestershire population, that is: Healthy and well, taking personal responsibility for their health and care, reaping the personal benefits that this can bring. Living in healthy, active communities and benefitting from strong networks of community services and support. Able to access consistently high quality, safe care when needed in the right place, at the right time,
Summary
• Gloucester district has the largest population in the county. • The greatest number of 0-4 years olds are in Gloucester district followed by Cheltenham. • The greatest number of over 65 year olds are in Stroud and the greatest number of over 85 year olds are in Cheltenham. • On the whole, Gloucestershire displays below average levels of deprivation. However there are 12 Lower Super Output Areas in the county that are amongst top 10% most deprived nationally (9 in Gloucester, 2 in Cheltenham one in the Forest of Dean). • The average number of long term conditions per patient is highest in the Forest of Dean PCN and Aspen in Gloucester.
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