14/01/2020 Gloucestershire Health Needs 20th January 2020 Dr Becky Maclean, Consultant in Public Health, Gloucestershire County Council Overview • What is the population health profile across Gloucestershire? – Population density, – Age distribution, – Health and disability deprivation, – Distribution of those likely to make greatest use of hospital services. • How does Gloucestershire’s health compare with rest of England? • What particular priorities does Gloucestershire have in terms of addressing health needs and health inequalities? 1 14/01/2020 Where do people live and who lives where? Where do people live? Total population by district, 2018 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Number of people 40,000 20,000 0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury 2 14/01/2020 Where do people live? Who lives where? – 0 to 4 year olds Number of people aged 0-4, 2018 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Numberof people 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury • Nationally and locally there is higher use of emergency and urgent care by young children. 3 14/01/2020 Who lives where? – people aged 65 years and over Who lives where? – people aged 85 years and over Number of people aged 85+, 2018 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Numberof people 1,000 500 0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury 4 14/01/2020 Population Projections Projected population change by age group, 2016 to 2041 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 2016 200,000 2026 2041 Number of peopleof Number 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0-19 20-64 65+ The English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) The IMD combines seven domains : • Income • Employment • Education, Skills and Training • Health Deprivation and Disability • Crime • Barriers to Housing and Services • Living Environment 5 14/01/2020 Deprivation Health deprivation and disability This takes into account: • Years of potential life lost, • Comparative illness and disability ratio, • Acute morbidity, • Mood and anxiety. 6 14/01/2020 Long Term Conditions Mean Number of Long Term Conditions per Patient by PCN 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Number ofNumberlong conditionsterm 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Cheltenham Cheltenham Cheltenham St North South The Forest of Aspen Gloucester Hadwen, North and Berkeley Vale Severn Health Stroud Tewkesbury Central Peripheral Paul's Cotswolds Cotswolds Dean Inner City Quedgeley South Cotswold Newent and and Rosebank Gloucester Staunton and West Cheltenham Medical Practice Cheltenham Cotswolds Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud and Berkeley Vale Tewkesbury CCG Average Population segmentation • Wellbeing Acorn is used in the following slides • Wellbeing Acorn is a tool that combines geography with information such as age, gender, interests, spending habits, and so on that enables the grouping of households with similar characteristics • It provides an indication of the likely health and wellbeing of the population based on modelled data. 7 14/01/2020 Percentage of population classed as Group 1 30% 25% 20% 15% % of population 10% 5% 0% Group 1 are likely to have • higher levels of illness and potentially make greater use of services due to greater need • some of the highest levels of smoking • some of the oldest people in the most deprived neighbourhoods • Issues around isolation and mental wellbeing Percentage of population classed as Group 2 30% 25% 20% 15% % of % of population 10% 5% 0% Group 2 are likely to have • Multiple unhealthy behaviours which could put their health at risk in the future. • Relatively high rates of smoking along with some alcohol concerns. 8 14/01/2020 How does Gloucestershire’s health compare with rest of England? Life expectancy • The health of people in Gloucestershire is generally better than England. • Life expectancy at birth is better than the England average for both genders. • However inequality in life expectancy at birth persists: 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Inequality in life expectancy at birth (2015-17) (2015-17) birthat expectancylife in Inequality 0.0 Male Female 9 14/01/2020 Integrated Care System The vision of our ICS is “to improve health and wellbeing, we believe that by all working better together, in a more joined up way, and using the strengths of individuals, carers and local communities, we will transform the quality of care and support we provide to local people.” Our long term ambition is to have a Gloucestershire population, that is: Healthy and well, taking personal responsibility for their health and care, reaping the personal benefits that this can bring. Living in healthy, active communities and benefitting from strong networks of community services and support. Able to access consistently high quality, safe care when needed in the right place, at the right time, Summary • Gloucester district has the largest population in the county. • The greatest number of 0-4 years olds are in Gloucester district followed by Cheltenham. • The greatest number of over 65 year olds are in Stroud and the greatest number of over 85 year olds are in Cheltenham. • On the whole, Gloucestershire displays below average levels of deprivation. However there are 12 Lower Super Output Areas in the county that are amongst top 10% most deprived nationally (9 in Gloucester, 2 in Cheltenham one in the Forest of Dean). • The average number of long term conditions per patient is highest in the Forest of Dean PCN and Aspen in Gloucester. 10.