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Company Visit Note COMPANY VISIT NOTE Conglomerate June, 29th 2015 Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group J.SC (HSX: HAG) Vuong Khac Huy Email: [email protected] Tel: (84) - 86290 8686 - Ext : 7592 HOANG ANH GIA LAI (HAGL) MYANMAR PROJECT Pham Le Duy Nhan Email: [email protected] This project belongs to HAGL Land (HAG owns 85.75%). Tel: (84) - 86290 8686 - Ext : 7596 SUMMARY Daily Return performance since 31/12/2013 The project is in a favorable position as it is only 11km and 50% 7km away from Yangon International Airport and Yangon 40% Downtown area, respectively. Consequently, HAGL Land will be 30% able to offer a competitive price for its premium international 20% standard development. 10% 0% This latest large-scale development in Myanmar is recorded as -10% the current biggest FDI project in the local real estate -20% industry. It is divided into two construction phases lasting from 31-Dec-13 31-May-14 31-Oct-14 31-Mar-15 2012 to 2018 with 73,358 sqm land use and US$ 430mn VNINDEX HAG registered capital. Market profile June, 29th 2015 According to our observation during the recent field trip, we Current price (VND/share) 18,700 expect the project to start generating revenue and cash flow 52-week high (VND/share) 26,400 since 3Q2015. We estimate its total revenue at US$ 8.6mn per 52-week low (VND/share) 17,100 month for the Phase 1 only. As a result, this potential cash inflow Listed shares 789,967,947 would help improve HAG’s liquidity and provide support to other Outstanding shares 789,899,302 projects of the Group. 3M average volume 2,179,114 % foreign ownership 25.04 Project timeline Chartered capital (VND bil) 7,899.7 Market cap. (VND bil) 14,771 2012 2015 2018 Business Overview Company HAGL Joint Stock Company 15 Truong Chinh St, Phu Dong Address Ward, Pleiku City, Gia Lai Province Core Sugar, Rubber, Beef Cattle, Real revenue Estate Construction, planting, feeding, Expense processing Key Economies of scale, large land strength bank Key risk High level of debt, weak cash flow Ownership % (Source: HAG) Doan Nguyen Duc 44.03 Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Ltd 10.21 Others 45.76 HSX: HAG HAGL MYANMAR CENTRE AT A GLANCE Located in well-established area The project is located in 192 Kaba Aye Pagoda Road, Bahan Township, Yangon Region, Myanmar. It is situated right on the road linking the center of Yangon city to Yangon international airport. The road is rather large with land take of about 25 meters. The building is 7.1 km and 11 km away from the city center and the airport respectively. The building is surrounded by one 5-star hotel (namely Sedona right next to HAGL’s building), two 4-star hotels, one 3-star hotel and 11 hotels of 1-2 stars. This location is also in one of Yangon’s most upscale areas, which overlooks the famous Inya Lake and is surrounded by many government offices, embassies and public services. This latest large-scale development in Myanmar is the biggest foreign-invested property project in Myanmar so far. Land area: 73,358 sqm Tenure: 50 + 10 + 10 years Investment form: 100% equity owned by HAGL Land Registered capital: US$ 440mn Complexity: Grade-A offices, retail spaces, modern residential units and a brand new hotel. (Source: HAG, FPTS) www.fpts.com.vn Bloomberg – FPTS <GO> | 2 HSX: HAG The real photos of project as of 23/06/2015 3D Perspective of the complete project (Source: HAG, FPTS) OUR COMMENTATION HAGL Land to wait until 3Q2015 to recognize revenue and profit from the first phase of this project HAGL on June, 23rd 2015 inaugurated its hotel-office complex in Yangon City with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and Myanmar’s Vice President U Htay Aung attending. According to our observation during the recent field trip, we expect the Group to spend a few more months for M&E and interior completion before putting the project into operation and start generating revenue and cash flow since 3Q2015. Phase 1 Land area No. of NLA Est. monthly revenue Category Est. rental fee (sqm) storey (sqm) (US$) Commercial Center 5 38,365 US$ 45/sqm/month 1,726,000 19,197 Office Building No.1 22 85,701 US$ 62/sqm/month 5,313,000 5-star Hotel 14,440 24 37,758 1,557,000 Total 33,637 161,824 8,596,000 (Source: HAG, FPTS - F) HAGL borrowed US$ 140mn loan to fund the first phase of the project. With assumed interest rate at 5% per annum, thus annual interest expense for the project is expected at US$ 7mn. This amount is not a big deal if the Complex could reach our revenue forecast. www.fpts.com.vn Bloomberg – FPTS <GO> | 3 HSX: HAG 5-star Hotel Key Hotel Projects Under Construction International arrivals to Yangon sharply grew at a CAGR of Project Location Rooms Rating Opening 49.71% from 2011 to 2013. It grew 46.1% y-o-y from about 0.6 Novotel Yangon Max Pyay Road 366 4-star 2014 million in 2012 to around 0.8 million in 2013. According to Jones Hilton Yangon Kyauktada 300 5-star 2014 Lang Lasalle, there were 9,163 rooms in Yangon as of June 2013. Sedona Hotel Pagoda 420 4-star 2014 (Phase 2) Road There are 4,518 rooms expected to enter the Yangon market over Novotel Inle Lake Inle Lake 121 4-star 2014 the next five years out of which some 95% can be categorized as Myat Min international standard. Pullman Yangon Inle Lake 300 5-star 2015 Myat Min Pagoda HAGL Hotel 480 5-star 2015 As we expect the supply to not meet the demand yet in the Road premium segment till 2016, the HAGL 5-star hotel, managed by Shwedagon Pan Pacific Hotel Pagoda 348 5-star 2016 Meliá Hotels International, would be able to fulfill its capacity after Road opening its doors later this year. Daewoo Hotel Inya Lake 150 5-star 2016 Source: JLL Research With average RevPAR at US$ 126 in 2014, we estimate hotel revenue to reach US$ 1,557,000 per month not to mention contribution from restaurant and event services. Commercial Center The average occupancy rate in Yangon ended at 98% as of 4Q2014 with the monthly average rental fee at 25.6 US$/sqm. These figures are getting better and expected to increase in the foreseeable future due to excessive demand and improving retail sales. Yangon lacks regional-sized shopping malls. At present, only 7% of the total is considered as sizeable (>10,000 sqm). With sizes below 5,000 sqm, most of newly-run projects is mainly classified as retail-support components of residential condominiums. Hence, HAGL Myanmar Commercial Center is considered as the largest shopping mall in Yangon so far, marking its notable competitive advantage. Office performance 2013 Although the planned rent of 45-50 US$/sqm is far above the Occupancy rate (L.H.S) Average rent (R.H.S) regional average, HAGL’s managements unveiled that almost 120% 100 100% NLA is already signed. Using a conservative planned rent 90 100% of 45 US$/sqm, we expect its monthly revenue generated from 80 USD/sqm/month 80% 70 commercial center at US$ 1,726,000. 60 60% 50 40 Office building 40% 30 20% 20 10 Yangon office rent rate is relatively high at US$ 77/sqm/mth 0% 0 compared to other major cities in Asia, in which the overall occupancy is 92%. Up to 2015, approximately 190,800 sqm of office space from nine (Source: Savills Research & Consultancy) project will enter Yangon’s office market. Among them, only HAGL Myanmar Center will make up to 45% of total upcoming supply. HAGL’s managements are offering a competitive price of US$ 62/sqm/mth compared to the regional average and they also www.fpts.com.vn Bloomberg – FPTS <GO> | 4 HSX: HAG disclosed that 50% NLA was reserved by MOU with many big clients such as Petronas (Malaysia), Vietnam Airlines, Thai Airways, PetroChina, BIDV, etc. According to its signed rent rate, we estimate the revenue from office leasing at US$ 5,313,000/mth. HAGL Land to speed up investment in the hope of having Phase 2 completed in 2018 Projected Phase 2 Land area No. of Total NLA Facility Est. rental fee Est. monthly revenue (sqm) storey (m2) Financial Tower C&D 10,414 30 94,189 N/A N/A Serviced Apartment and 28,473 27 – 32 101,498 N/A N/A Residential Units Total 38.887 195,687 (Source: HAG, FPTS - F) The second phase of the project will begin in 2016 and be put into operation by 2018. During this period, the Group will build four 28- storey towers that will have 1,800 apartments and office areas for rent and sale. HAGL’s managements said they have already received over 100 reservations for residential units that would be open for sale by the end of this June. The planned price is US$ 2,700/sqm. In summary, we believe in the potential of this project and expect its cash inflow would improve HAG’s liquidity and provide support to other projects of the Group. www.fpts.com.vn Bloomberg – FPTS <GO> | 5 HSX: HAG RECOMMENDATION AND EXPLANATION Recommendation system is based on difference between target price and market price of each stock in order to provide appropriate information for investors in 12-month investment period from recommended day. The expected rate of return at 18% is estimated based on 12-month government bond rate in addition to market risk premium in Vietnam.
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