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The Electoral Commission We are an independent body that was Caradog House set up by the UK Parliament. We aim to 1-6 St Andrews Place Cardiff CF10 3BE gain public confidence and encourage Te l 029 2034 6801 people to take part in the democratic Fax 029 2034 6805 process within the United Kingdom [email protected] by modernising the electoral process, promoting public awareness of electoral The Electoral Commission Trevelyan House matters, and regulating political parties. Great Peter Street London SW1P 2HW

Te l 020 7271 0500 3560/EC/12.02 Fax 020 7271 0505 © The Electoral Commission 2003 [email protected] ISBN: 1-904363-12-1 www.electoralcommission.org.uk 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page a3

Research report, December 2002 Wales votes? Public attitudes towards Assembly elections 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page a4

The Electoral Commission We are an independent body that was set up by the UK Parliament. We aim to gain public confidence and encourage people to take part in the democratic process within the United Kingdom by modernising the electoral process, promoting public awareness of electoral matters, and regulating political parties. On 1 April 2002, The Boundary Committee for England (formerly the Local Government Commission for England) became a statutory committee of The Electoral Commission. Its duties include reviewing local electoral boundaries.

Wales votes? This report presents the findings of a research project undertaken by NOP and the Institute of Welsh Politics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth.

Copyright © The Electoral Commission 2002

ISBN: 1-904363-12-1 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 01 1 Contents

Preface 3 Understanding non-voting – Executive summary 4 qualitative research 39 Explaining alienation and non-voting 5 Attitudes towards politics 39 Understanding and expectations of the Assembly 6 Lack of information 40 The Assembly’s powers and influence 6 Younger people 41 Using information to facilitate participation 7 Working parents 41 Retiring workforce 42 Terms of reference 8 Attitudes towards the Assembly 42 Research steering committee 8 Knowledge and awareness of the Assembly 43 Acknowledgements 8 What is the Assembly? 43 Perceptions of the Assembly 44 Research methodology 9 Regional issues 45 Scoping study 9 Attitudes towards voting 45 Qualitative research 9 The process of registering and voting 47 Voting in Assembly election 47 The context of the research 13 Potential campaign messages 48

Public attitudes towards devolution References 51 and devolved bodies 19 Appendix 1 – Survey details 52 Attitudes towards politicians and the political parties 24 Appendix 2 – Constituency turnout in Wales in 1999 and 2001 53 Turnout in Wales 27 Rationale for non-voting in 1999 28 Voter groups and turnout in 1999 30 Logistic regression analysis 34 Voter groups and turnout in 2001 35 Attitudes towards the voting system 37 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 02 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 03 3 Preface

The 1997 referendum in Wales The fact that a majority of eligible voters in Wales chose not to vote in 1999 is of particular concern in the light saw support narrowly in favour of of a 59% turnout that year at the Scottish Parliament devolution with 50.3% voting for elections and 61% in Wales at the low turnout general election. This report presents the findings of a research and 49.7% against. Equally notable project, undertaken by the Institute of Welsh Politics at was the low turnout of barely 50% the University of Wales, Aberystwyth and NOP, which explored the factors which might motivate people to which was followed by 46% at the vote at the 2003 Assembly elections. first Assembly elections in 1999. The research was designed to inform the awareness In some areas of Wales only a and education campaigns that The Electoral Commission third of people voted. will be developing and coordinating in Wales in advance of the 2003 elections. It will also be used as a starting point for the Commission’s statutory review of the administration and conduct of those elections.

The project involved a scoping study review of recent opinion research followed by primary qualitative research exploring public attitudes to the Assembly and voting at Assembly elections. Overall responsibility for the report rests with the authors and it should be noted that the findings and conclusions are those of the authors and not The Electoral Commission.

The research focused on a number of issues, including attitudes in Wales towards the Assembly, public understanding of its role and responsibilities, current levels of registration and turnout among electoral sub-groups and the factors which might (de)motivate people to vote at the 2003 Assembly elections. As such, its contents will be of interest to those in Wales, and elsewhere, who are seeking to facilitate greater levels of participation in the democratic process and increased levels of electoral registration and voting.

Glyn Mathias Electoral Commissioner Chair of the Wales votes? Research Steering Group December 2002

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A key justification of the devolving Low Assembly turnout might be interpreted as: of power to Wales and Scotland 1) a reflection of generalised alienation with the political process; was bringing government closer to the people and, in Wales, 2) a reflection of the lower importance of the Assembly election (i.e. a ‘second-order’ election); securing ‘A Voice for Wales’. In this context, turnout of barely 3) a reflection of hostility towards devolution. 50% at the devolution referendum Our review of quantitative research has found very little evidence to support the third interpretation. Rather, and 45.9% at the first National survey data suggests that support for the principle of Assembly election was a cause devolution has increased since 1997, with support for the pre-devolution constitutional arrangement falling of particular concern. from 40% in 1997 to 23% in 2001. There is, indeed, evidence of increasing support for more powers to Nevertheless, low turnout at be transferred to the Welsh level, with the proportion of the Welsh electorate favouring a Welsh Parliament the Assembly election should increasing from 19% in 1997 to 39% in 2001. be placed in the context of the Low turnout is therefore to be explained by the declining turnout at elections widespread sense of alienation from the political for all levels of government. process in general and a perception that the Assembly is not a particularly important political forum.

The qualitative research conducted specifically for this study involved focus groups purposively focused on those social groups less likely to vote. This included ‘differential voters’ – i.e. those voting in UK general elections but not doing so in Assembly elections. The qualitative research confirms the interpretation suggested by the quantitative data. But, while there was no evidence that failure to vote was a protest against the Assembly as an institution, it does, however, seem to be the case that differential abstention is highest among those who favour a return to the constitutional position pre-devolution.

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Explaining alienation and non-voting Young people are characterised by particularly low levels At the most general level, quite independent of any of interest. Quantitative survey data show that 69% of feelings about the Assembly, our qualitative work respondents aged 18–24 report not voting in the 1999 demonstrates that many ‘differential’ and non-voters National Assembly election. In marked contrast, 71% in Wales appear disengaged and disinterested in UK of respondents over the age of 65 voted. politics. Their disinterest in UK as well as Welsh politics, and particularly their indifference to the Assembly, Our qualitative research shows that young ‘differential’ derives from numerous factors: and non-voters living with their parents are particularly disengaged from the political process, apparently • The dilution of traditional class allegiances and the because they perceive themselves to have little at stake diminished influence of the trade unions – both and to be largely unaffected by any possible political historically acted as motivating forces for voters. change. Neither are they inclined to regard voting as a duty, since they take their right to vote for granted and, • The perceived interchangeability of parties, such that as such, do not invest it with much importance. Young individuals may feel it makes little or no difference who men are usually more politically aware than women, is actually in power. since they tend to access media with higher political • The sense that life is now determined by world content than women. economic forces, rather than policies followed by any one country. Older people preserve the tradition of an interest in politics at the everyday level and represent the most • The perceived lack of strong personalities in politics. politically aware sector of the Welsh population. • The perceived lack of information available However, even this generation profess to having become about politics. somewhat disillusioned with politics, and are the most cynical about the motivations of politicians. They regard There is cynicism among ‘differential’ and non-voters voting as a civic duty, and do not generally need reminding about what drives politicians, who are generally of this condition of their full 'membership' of society. suspected of pursuing a political career for their own ends, particularly financial ones, instead of being Of those respondents to the 1999 Welsh National motivated by a wish to do good for society. Assembly Election Survey who did not vote, 45% cited circumstantial reasons for non-participation, while 34% Age and life-stage appear the most important claimed that abstention was a deliberate act. determinants of attitudes towards politics. In particular, interest appears to be driven principally by the ownership Survey data from 1999 and 2001 also confirm that: of property or a car, or becoming a parent. In other • middle classes were more likely to vote than words, interest in politics develops only once an working classes; individual perceives that s/he has something at stake. • electors with less trust in politicians and the political By this reasoning, working taxpayers with mortgages are process were less likely to vote. most interested in the economy because they have their home at stake. Parents take an interest because of their Non-participation at the 1997 devolution referendum concern for their children's education. They are likely to was a strong predictor of non-participation in the be receptive to messages that emphasise the linkages 1999 National Assembly election. between involvement and interest in politics and their respective 'stakes'.

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Understanding and expectations those with higher awareness assume that the Labour of the Assembly Party currently holds power. Survey data shows that there were relatively high The Assembly’s powers and influence expectations of the Assembly in 1997. Half thought the It is apparent from our focus group work among Assembly would give Wales a stronger voice in the ‘differential’ and non-voters that, at a general level, the United Kingdom, half that it would improve the standard Assembly seems to be widely perceived as unable to of education in Wales. There is some evidence, however, effect its decisions without permission from Westminster. that these expectations have not been met. By 2001, Survey data suggest that electors think Assembly for example, 62% thought the Assembly had made elections make less of a difference than general elections. no difference to the standard of education. Nonetheless, these same survey data show that the There is little or no understanding of the Assembly's proportion of the electorate who trust the National powers, or of what its Members do on a day-to-day Assembly to act in Wales’ best long-term interests at basis. Moreover, very few respondents in the qualitative least most of the time, is far larger than the proportion research felt they would know where to find information who express a similar level of trust in the UK government. about the Assembly if they wanted it. Survey data suggest that while only a minority (17%) of Our focus groups among ‘differential’ and non-voters the Welsh electorate think that the National Assembly has suggest that neither the Assembly’s rationale, nor its most influence on government in Wales, a clear majority activities, are generally understood, even by those who (54%) think the Assembly ought to have most influence. are more interested in politics. It is unclear in the minds of many why the Assembly was first established and Evidence on attitudes towards politicians at the Welsh its activities and achievements are, with very few level appears to be mixed. On the one hand, survey exceptions, virtually unknown. This uncertainty as to the data from 2001 suggests that fewer electors believe Assembly's role, underpinned for some with scepticism that Assembly Members lose touch with their electors as to why it was first set up as an institution, means that compared to MPs. However our qualitative work among individuals can be unwilling to afford it much interest and ‘differential’ and non-voters suggests that the cynicism can be reluctant to vote when they do not feel equipped that has been identified towards politicians in general with enough understanding to do so. is especially pronounced as far as Welsh politicians are concerned – councillors and Assembly Members are The Assembly is generally regarded as an 'administrative' usually suspected of being in it for themselves and for rather than a 'political' institution i.e. in much the same their own financial gain. The political and representative way that members of the public often afford more elements of the National Assembly’s work clearly remain concentration to the operational rather than the political obscure to some sections of the electorate. activities of local authorities (since these are more visible, and so felt to be more relevant to their lives). Qualitative evidence confirms that the process of voting is usually understood. There is good awareness of how Levels of knowledge about the National Assembly’s role and where to vote suggesting that the practical issues are low, often abysmally so. For example, among some of voting procedure cannot be held responsible for low of the non-voters who participated in the qualitative turnouts. Rather, disengagement from the political research there was some surprise that Members process and lack of information, even more strongly were actually elected to the Assembly instead of within the context of the National Assembly, are to blame. being appointed. There was little awareness of the present political make-up of the Assembly, although

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Our focus groups highlighted that the simple fact • What the Assembly has achieved so far and its key of the Assembly's being Welsh can lead some people policies for the next term. This will help people to to assume that it will automatically be inferior. understand what the Assembly has done and what This perception is as much based on emotion (i.e. it is committed to delivering. People say that this will ambivalence about the complex nature of Welsh identity) help to encourage them to vote. as it is on reason (i.e. the limited powers the Assembly has within its remit). That said, the Assembly is almost The way in which the information is presented should universally recognised as a good idea in theory. It is also be considered carefully. The fact that the Assembly thought appropriate that a body exists to make decisions is a somewhat mysterious institution for many, has for Wales, and to allow at least a degree of self- resulted in some negative assumptions, and indeed determination to Wales. In practice, however, it is misconceptions, about its operation. This suggests that seen as an institution that has, as yet, failed to live it is important that the information should be presented up to its potential. in a manner that is seen as being clear, frank and comprehensible. Apart from the general disengagement from the political process, it is indifference towards the Assembly that While information provision is important, any campaign appears to be at the root of low turnout and ignorance can only go so far in attempting to encourage people to of it, rather than opposition to the principle of devolution. use their vote in May 2003. Certainly, perceptions of the appeal of political platforms and personnel are also likely Using information to facilitate participation to be key factors determining turnout. The research indicates that ‘differential’ and non-voters are unlikely to be persuaded to vote by a campaign using an emotional route based on an appeal to Welsh patriotism, or an assertion that people were wrong to have not voted in 1999. Rather, they are likely to be much more responsive to an information campaign focusing on the rationale of the Assembly, its powers and activities.

The research suggests a series of key information requirements: • Information regarding the role of the Assembly within Wales. This should incorporate messages about the powers of the Assembly to make changes in Wales, though there is also scope for suggesting what the Assembly actually means for Wales. This would take the form of a distinct and comprehensible public image for the Assembly; • Communication of the main powers held by the Assembly. This will certainly help to involve voters already engaged in politics to a certain extent through their family and occupational interests, to see the link with the Assembly and their everyday lives. This should take the form of some clear messages about which departments exist within the Assembly and their powers to make changes in Wales; Wales votes?: executive summary 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 08 8 Terms of reference

The Electoral Commission The research project team comprised: contracted the Institute of Welsh • Dr Richard Wyn Jones, Director, Institute of Welsh Politics, The University of Wales, Aberystwyth; Politics at the University of Wales, • Dr Roger Scully, The Institute of Welsh Politics, Aberystwyth working with NOP, to The University of Wales, Aberystwyth; undertake a project to investigate • Gwenan Creunant, The Institute of Welsh Politics, public attitudes towards the The University of Wales, Aberystwyth; National Assembly for Wales, • Neil Lovell, Associate Director, NOP; public understanding of the role • Amrita Sood, Research Executive, NOP; • Gwenan Evans, NOP Cymru/Walton Evans and responsibilities of the Bro Morgannwg. Assembly, and the factors which Research steering committee might motivate people to vote at The research project was supervised by a steering the 2003 elections. The project committee convened by The Electoral Commission. involved a scoping study review This consisted of: of recent attitudes surveys followed • Glyn Mathias, Electoral Commissioner; by primary qualitative research • Kay Jenkins, Head of Office, Wales, (for more detail, see the following The Electoral Commission; section of this report). • John Osmond, Director, Institute of Welsh Affairs; • Anne Hinds, Director of Media and Public Affairs, The Electoral Commission; • Ben Marshall, Research and Information Manager, The Electoral Commission. Acknowledgements The research team would like to thank all past and present members of the Institute of Welsh Politics who have been involved in the survey research on the attitudes of the Welsh electorate which this report draws upon. We are also grateful to all of those in the National Centre for Social Research, and in particular Katarina Thomson, for their work on these surveys and, not least, to the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) for funding them! Finally, the research team wish to acknowledge their grateful thanks to all those members of the public who have given up their time to take part in this research.

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The project was conducted in Scoping study The scoping study, conducted by the Institute of Welsh two stages. The first was a scoping Politics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth, used study looking at existing literature existing research and survey data. Specifically, the on the subject as well as examining aims were: • to critically review and analyse previous quantitative relevant data-sets to gain an insight and qualitative research relating to devolution and into what makes people likely to voter attitudes; vote or not. The second was a • to identify key sub-groups and issues to provide the series of focus groups exploring background and focus for further research through the issues raised in the scoping a series of focus groups. study. These groups, their location, Qualitative research This stage sought information that constituted new composition and coverage were insights into the attitudes of the Welsh electorate towards developed to take account of National Assembly elections and to establish potential motivating and de-motivating factors to voting at the themes and findings of the elections in 2003. scoping study. Particular attention was paid to ‘differential voters’ in order to identify more effectively the reasoning behind choosing not to vote in the National Assembly elections despite being participatory in another arena (the general election), and to assess which messages might convince those who are ambivalent to voting in May 2003.

The research programme consisted of 10 focus groups conducted at five separate locations in Wales, shown in Table 1. QRS Research conducted telephone and on-street recruitment. Participants were selected using purposive sampling and each group was recruited to be reasonably homogeneous. Reflecting a key finding of the scoping study analysis, two groups were conducted in areas where a significant proportion of the electorate watch television broadcast from transmitters in England that is, in this case, north-east Wales. The groups were moderated by NOP. Two group discussions were conducted in Welsh and these were moderated and analysed by Gwenan Evans.

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Table 1: Composition of focus groups

Location Date Quotas Caernarfon 27 August 2002 ‘Non-voters’: 18–24 male C2DE, did not vote in last general election, say ‘certain not to’ or ‘very unlikely’ to vote in 2003 Swansea 22 August 2002 ‘Non-voters’: 18–24 female BC1, did not vote in last general election, say ‘certain not to’ or ‘very unlikely’ to vote in 2003 Swansea 22 August 2002 ‘Likely differential voters’: 18–25 male BC1, mix of living with parents, living in own home, all of 20–25s to have voted in last general election, do not say ‘certain’ or ‘very likely’ to vote in 2003 Cardiff 27 August 2002 ‘Likely differential voters’: 20–24 male/female, students at further/higher education, half to have voted in last general election, do not say ‘certain’ or ‘very likely’ to vote in 2003 Cardiff 27 August 2002 ‘Confirmed differential voters’: 25–34 male C2DE, mix of single and partnered, mix of parents/not, all to have voted in last general election, half to have voted in last Assembly election Wrexham 28 August 2002 ‘Confirmed differential voters’: 35–44 male/female BC1, all to have voted in last general election (half to have voted in last Assembly election), do not say ‘certain’ or ‘very likely’ to vote in 2003 Wrexham 28 August 2002 ‘Likely differential voters’: 25–34 female C1C2, mix of single and partnered, mix of parents/not, half to have voted in last general election, none to have voted in last Assembly election Merthyr Tydfil 29 August 2002 ‘Likely differential voters’: 45–54 male/female C1C2, mix of single and partnered, mix of parents/not, half to have voted in last general election, none to have voted in last Assembly election Merthyr Tydfil 29 August 2002 ‘Committed but floating voters’: 40–55 male/female ABC1, all to have voted in last Assembly election, do not say ‘certain’ or ‘very likely’ to vote in 2003 Caernarfon 27 August 2002 ‘Committed Assembly voters’: 55+ male/female C1C2, all to have voted in last Assembly election, ‘certain’ or ‘very likely’ to vote in 2003

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The main objectives of the qualitative phase of the • comparative attitudes to voting in a general election research were to explore the issues, attitudes and and an election of the National Assembly for Wales; values that underlie non-voting. In particular, we focused on identifying and exploring the following: • sources of information about voting and the Assembly; • attitudes to devolution and the devolved bodies • sources of understanding of electoral systems in Wales; in general; • levels and sources of awareness of the activities of • sources of knowledge of the devolved bodies; the Assembly; • suggestions for improving voter turnout in the future. • perceptions of the Assembly and its activities;

• perceptions of the level of influence held by the Assembly;

• attitudes to voting in general;

• motivators and demotivators to voting in general;

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Few have questioned the If devolution is to be seen as generating a renewed sense of involvement and engagement in the political process, significance of the devolution rather than merely instituting another layer of government, programme of the Blair the new institutions must surely in some way engage the interest and support of citizens for their role as government. Though it has been representative bodies and the centrepieces of the much debated and often criticised, emerging Scottish and Welsh political (sub)-systems. devolution’s defenders argue that The ability of devolution to achieve this remains it brings government ‘closer to the particularly questionable in the case of Wales. In contrast to Scotland, there was no clear ‘settled will’ people’ than was the case under of the populace to endorse the establishment of the the hitherto highly centralised National Assembly. Instead, the institution emerged in an atmosphere combining disagreement with apathy in apparatus of the UK state. The roughly equal proportions. The creation of the Assembly devolved institutions in Scotland was supported by barely half of those voting in a low turnout referendum. When the time came to elect the and Wales have passed a first chamber itself in May 1999, turnout, at 45.9%, was hurdle, in that despite experiencing even lower than in the referendum. Such low levels of participation were particularly striking given both that problems in their first three years Wales has traditionally experienced higher turnouts of existence, no major party in than the UK average, and that the Assembly poll was conducted using a proportional voting system either territory now advocates their (additional member) usually associated with higher abolition – even the Conservatives electoral participation (Farrell 2001). As one set of commentators observed, ‘The fact that Welsh turnout have reconciled themselves to in the elections was lower than turnout in the previous ‘making devolution work’. But in round of local elections…was certainly an inauspicious start for the Assembly’ (Bradbury et al. 2000, p. 9). the longer-term, if the broader It appeared that devolution had failed to engage aspirations for devolution are to be the interest and support of a large section of the Welsh people. fulfilled, the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales must do more than merely exist.

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Yet while low turnout in the Assembly election was hardly reflected a fundamental hostility to devolution on the a good thing (except, perhaps, to die-hard opponents part of many.1 Large numbers of people in Wales never of devolution), the broader consequences we might wanted the Assembly, and abstention might therefore infer from it depend heavily on the reasons to which be seen as a conscious expression of alienation from, we ascribe the high levels of electoral non-participation. and hostility towards, an unwanted institution. This would This is more complex than it may initially appear, for in suggest that among much of the population, the very the specific context of Wales in 1999, several plausible existence of the Assembly was still essentially contested, explanations for widespread electoral non-participation, rather than merely essentially ignored. carrying quite different implications for our understanding of what low turnout says about devolution and the It is clear that how we interpret the causes of low turnout in Assembly, suggest themselves. Wales in 1999 will condition our understanding of what is likely to (de)motivate people to vote in future devolved elections. One view is that low participation rates in the 1999 Assembly election reflected, at least in part, a But before moving to a more detailed discussion of the wider sense of apathy towards the political process. evidence with regard to turnout in Wales, it is worthwhile Participation rates in other elections in recent years briefly reviewing the broader literature relating to turnout. have been poor, and some (e.g. Dunleavy 2000) have The first point to note here is that election turnout is not diagnosed a ‘turnout time-bomb’ – one that appeared a self-evidently important marker of the legitimacy of to detonate on 7 June 2001 with the historically low political institutions. There are political systems where participation rate in the UK general election. On this low turnouts persist without the legitimacy of core interpretation, the Assembly election was simply the institutions or the system as a whole being fundamentally victim of a much wider public alienation from the challenged. Some critics cast aspersions on the United political process. States’ political system because of persistently low election turnouts, but few seriously doubt that the system A second hypothesis locates the explanation for enjoys widespread domestic legitimacy. In the UK, local low turnout more specifically in the constitutional government has survived many years of low turnouts in arrangements in the Government of Wales Act (1998): local council elections without the basic legitimacy of specifically the limited powers that the Assembly was local government itself being questioned. In practice, granted compared to the Scottish Parliament. This is a therefore, there is no simple correspondence between classic ‘second-order’ explanation: in accordance with turnout and legitimacy; nor, it should be further theories of second-order elections (e.g. Reif and Schmitt recognised, is there agreement about the relationship 1980), where less is at stake, fewer people bother to vote. between them at the level of theory. Rather, there are If confirmed, this hypothesis would suggest that only if fundamental differences between theorists about the the Assembly receives greater powers, or otherwise relative importance and desirability of the various demonstrates its importance, would more people possible forms of political participation in a democratic become engaged by it. system, including voting. This in turn reflects different attitudes to the relationship between participation and A third view, however, and potentially the most serious for legitimacy. While it is beyond the purview of this research the future of devolution in Wales, is that non-participation to explore these theoretical disputes in detail, it is useful to clarify some of the main lines of argument. 1 The then Conservative leader in Wales, Rod Richards, in the aftermath of the 1999 election ascribed the low turnout (particularly among Conservative In her now classic study, Participation and Democratic supporters) to hostility towards devolution: ‘A lot of Conservative voters who didn’t want devolution in the first place made the positive decision not to vote. Theory (1970), Carole Pateman identified two broad This was their second opportunity to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with attitudes towards participation in contemporary the Assembly.’ (Quoted in the Western Mail, 8 May 1999, p. 5)

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democratic theory, differentiating between the Pateman 1970, p. 30). This comment serves to underline proponents of representative government on the one a key aspect of the participatory democracy credo. For hand, and the champions of participatory democracy its advocates, a system based on broad democratic on the other. The former advocate a rather limited notion participation is not simply the most effective way of of popular participation. This position is upheld by a producing good government, although this is certainly diverse range of thinkers motivated by very different claimed as one of its benefits. Rather, it is the means concerns from fear of the expropriation of property, by which human capacities – our ‘intellect’ and ‘moral to first hand experience of the power of fascist dispositions’ – can be developed. Participation plays a demagoguery. It embraces classical liberal theorists, pedagogic role above and beyond any benefits accruing such as Jeremy Bentham and James Mill, post-war from efficacious decision-making. political scientists like Joseph Schumpeter and Robert Dahl, and left-leaning critical theorists such as Otto But if this much is common ground among proponents Kirchheimer and Franz Neumann. Whatever their other of more participative models of democracy, there are differences, all view participation in relatively narrow, also significant differences among them. Some of these instrumentalist terms, and argue that while some differences are concerned with the extent of participation. participation is vital, its role and scope must be Until recently most advocates of participative democracy, strictly limited. from Rousseau through Mill, to syndicalism and guild socialism, have advocated the extension of participation From this perspective, the function of public participation into the economic realm. But more recently, many in the political system is a negative one. The ballot box advocates of enhanced participation have scaled and the resulting sanction of the possible loss of office, back their vision of what degree of participation is serve as the ultimate guarantor of public interests against either feasible or desirable (e.g. Baynes 2000). For any infringement by the arbitrary decisions of elected these thinkers, associated with so-called ‘deliberative leaders. As such, theorists of representative government democracy’, the focus is on delimiting more clearly the see no particular intrinsic merit in securing high turnouts social realm from that of the economic, so as to ensure at elections. All that is necessary is for turnout to reach that the market mechanisms that regulate the latter do ‘the minimum necessary to keep the democratic method not encroach on the former, a realm that is properly open (electoral machinery) working’ (Pateman 1970, p. 14). to greater participation. The success or otherwise of the system itself is judged on policy outputs rather than popular inputs via participation. Legitimacy is similarly closely linked with the stability and efficacy of the system.

In stark contrast, advocates of participatory democracy view ensuring the widest possible participation as an end in itself, and regard a system in which participation is limited to voting every few years as a rather hollow version of democracy. J. S. Mill, for example, was keen to underline what he regarded as the deep limitations of the model of participation characteristic of modern liberal democracies: ‘A political act, to be done only once in a few years, and for which nothing in the daily habits of the citizen has prepared him, leaves his intellect and his moral dispositions very much as it found him’ (cited in

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Another key point of contention is the type of elections Clarke et al. argue that the main factors that led to a found in contemporary liberal democracies. In the past, low turnout in 2001 were policy dissatisfaction, lack of many of the more radical advocates of participatory interest in the campaign and a decline in partisanship. democracy have tended to be hostile towards ‘bourgeois It is worthwhile reviewing their findings. One hypothesis democracy’. At best, their attitude has been one of explaining the low turnout in 2001 might be the existence indifference. Other advocates of participatory democracy, of dissatisfaction with the Labour Party among that especially contemporary theorists, have, however, party’s own supporters (especially ‘Old Labour’ socialists adopted a very different view. For them, the election who were not supportive of Blair’s ‘New Labour’) for of members to some form of parliament or constituent having failed to ‘deliver the goods’ by improving public assembly is viewed as a necessary – although not services. And indeed there did appear to be quite a lot sufficient – condition for a properly democratic society. of policy discontent with the government on issues of While in their view there is more to democracy than health, crime, taxation and education (Clarke et al. 2001, simply elections, and more to participation than voting, p. 219). Thus there is some evidence to support the these are the cornerstones of democratic society. So hypothesis – there is a clear negative relationship while democratic participation may well need to be between turnout in 2001 and Labour’s 1997 vote share. deepened, it is also important that it should be as wide Furthermore, although not speaking directly to which as possible. In this context, ensuring high election turnout voters (in partisan terms) abstained, constituency-level is viewed as crucial. High turnout is associated with a returns show that, in fact, the decline in turnout was healthy political system – a system that is not only an somewhat larger in Labour-held constituencies (at 13%) effective deliverer for the public good but also enjoys than in those held by the Liberal Democrats or a high degree of public legitimacy. Conservatives (11%) (Clarke et al. 2002, p. 6).

It is the latter, participatory, view that was, of course, Another factor is the individual’s level of interest in the at the heart of the case for the establishment of a campaign or in politics in general. Only 27% of electors democratically elected devolved body for Wales (Davies were ‘very interested’ in the campaign in 2001, compared 1999, Hain 1999). As such, the relatively low turnouts to 76% of respondents in the 1997 post-election study witnessed in Wales in the 1997 referendum and 1999 survey who said that they ‘cared a great deal which party National Assembly election inevitably raise questions as won’ the election (Clarke et al. 2001, p. 222). One of the to the legitimacy of the Assembly. But it should be noted reasons could be that the campaign was unusually long, that, in more general terms, the equation of high turnout as the expected May election date was postponed until with public legitimacy appears to be supported by a June (Clarke et al. 2001, p. 222). Also, Labour were made broad consensus of political opinion across the UK as the overwhelming favourites by media pundits and a whole. This has certainly been the tenor of the wide- bookmakers alike long before the 2001 election was ranging expressions of concern that have followed the called, which stigmatised the election as a boring ‘non- dramatic fall in turnout at the 2001 UK general election. contest’, unlikely to capture public attention or energise And certainly, the studies undertaken of that election partisan sentiments (Clarke et al. 2002, p. 8). Comparing linked to the 2001 British Election Study have painted data from the 1997 and 2001 BES post-election surveys a depressing picture for those interested in engaging shows that the percentage of voters paying a ‘great deal’ the electorate with the political process. or ‘quite a lot’ of attention to politics fell from 32% to 29%, and the percentage of ‘very strong’ party identification fell from 16% to 12% (Clarke et al. 2002, p. 8).

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Having established this broad context, we shall now begin to identify and analyse the available evidence with regard to voter motivators and demotivators at the 1999 National Assembly election, utilising survey data to also consider what is likely to have occurred if a National Assembly election had been held in 2001.

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In this section of the report we shall A number of salient points emerge from Table 2. The first point is that an elected Assembly has never been consider public attitudes principally the favoured constitutional position of a majority of the towards devolution and the devolved electorate. While it was the most popular constitutional position in the immediate aftermath of the first elections bodies in Wales. Let us begin by to the body, even at this most auspicious juncture, barely considering respondents’ views a third of the electorate thought an elected Assembly was the best way to govern Wales. Across the three years, on their preferred constitutional studied support for the Assembly does not show a arrangements for Wales. significant change.

Table 2: Constitutional preferences in Wales

All figures are percentages 1997 1999 2001 Independence* 13 10 12 Parliament 19 29 39 Assembly 28 34 26 No elected body 40 26 23 (i.e. pre-devolution position) Base 637 1,192 1,039 Sources: 1997 Welsh Referendum Survey (WRS), 1999 Welsh Assembly Election Survey (WAES), 2001 Welsh Election Survey (WES). * Respondents were offered the option of supporting Independence within the European Union or outside the European Union. The ‘Independence’ category includes both responses.

However, while the notion of an Assembly fails to win new converts, support for a Welsh parliament increases significantly from 1997 to 2001. In 1997, fewer than one in five of the electorate supported the establishment of a Welsh parliament. By 2001, support for a Welsh parliament had more than doubled, making it, by a considerable distance, the favoured constitutional position of the Welsh electorate. Alongside the growth in support for a Welsh parliament, the percentage of respondents wishing to see a return to the pre- devolutionary status quo has dwindled.

What do these data tell us specifically about the impact of the Assembly? The data could be interpreted in two rather contrasting ways. On one hand, if one accepts the evolutionary logic of Ron Davies’ oft-quoted ‘Devolution is a process and not an event’ (Davies 1999), one might

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Table 3: The impact of the Assembly Table 4a: The Assembly will give/has given Wales a stronger on how Britain is governed (2001) voice in the UK

All figures are percentages All figures are percentages 1997 1999 2001 Improved it a lot 2 Stronger 50 62 49 Improved it a little 18 No difference 33 32 46 Made no difference 59 Weaker 12 5 3 Made it a little worse 7 Sources: 1997 WRS, 1999 WAES, 2001 WES Made it a lot worse 3 (It is too early to tell) 4 Table 4b: The Assembly will give/has given ordinary people Don’t know 6 more say in government Base 1,085 Source: 2001 WES All figures are percentages 1997 1999 2001 More 54 55 34 suggest that the Assembly has been a success. It has No difference 36 39 60 used the powers within its grasp well and this has given Less 4 3 4 the electorate confidence to support the transfer of further Sources: 1997 WRS, 1999 WAES, 2001 WES significant powers from Westminster to Cardiff Bay. The Assembly has ‘earned its stripes’. On the other hand, However, a range of questions utilised particularly in another interpretation suggests that the Assembly has 1999 and 2001 provide an opportunity to probe the made little difference, and that a significant proportion competing explanations of Assembly performance. of the electorate believes that devolution will only work if the devolved body is accorded greater powers. In 2001 respondents were asked whether they thought the establishment of the National Assembly for Wales On this second view, support for a parliament may be had improved the way Britain is governed. This question viewed as an indictment of the record of the Assembly, provides an opportunity to probe more general views on rather than a vindication. Of course, a third, alternative the Assembly rather than in particular policy areas. explanation might seek to combine elements of both of these previous explanations: the roof did not fall in with The striking feature here is that almost 60% of respondents devolution, indeed the electorate seem to have become felt that the Assembly has made no difference to the way accustomed to it all remarkably quickly (compared, that Britain is governed. In comparison, only one in five for example, to the many years it took for the German thought that the Assembly had improved the way Britain and Italian regional tiers to establish themselves in is governed. Given the centrality of improving governance public affections). In Wales, some seem to have and addressing the democratic deficit within the Yes developed a taste for devolution. Others may simply campaign at the referendum, such figures will undoubtedly have decided that if we are going to have it, we might be a disappointment to the advocates of the Assembly. as well do it properly and have ‘proper’ powers. Either They should surely not seek to draw much comfort from way, the data seem to suggest a pretty significant shift the fact that only one in 10 believe that the Assembly has in favour of a parliament. made things worse. Rather, the evidence suggests that, in general terms, a majority of the electorate perceive the It is difficult to ascertain the causal processes that Assembly has having had little impact. have led electors to shift their views on the constitution.

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Table 5a: Impact of the Assembly on the standard of living By 2001, electors were, in broad terms, equally split between those who thought the Assembly had given All figures are percentages 1997 1999 2001 Wales a stronger voice in the United Kingdom and those Stronger 29 29 33 who thought that the advent of the Assembly had made No difference 51 61 54 no difference. It is interesting to note at this point that the proportion thinking the Assembly had made no difference Weaker 12 6 8 had increased from a third in 1997/1999, to almost one Sources: 1997 WRS, 1999 WAES, 2001 WES half of the electorate in 2001. For the advocates of the Assembly as an exercise in renewing Welsh democracy, Table 5b: Impact of the Assembly on education the findings of Table 4b are even more discouraging. While a clear majority of respondents thought that the All figures are percentages 1997 1999 2001 Assembly would give ordinary people more say in Improve 50 41 22 government in 1997, by 2001 the pattern had reversed No difference 37 48 62 with 60% of respondents saying that the Assembly had not made any difference to the say of ordinary people Reduce 5 3 4 in government. Sources: 1997 WRS, 1999 WAES, 2001 WES When one considers the expectations of the Assembly Table 5c: Impact of the Assembly in relation to specific policy areas a broadly similar on health pattern is found. In terms of the impact of the Assembly on the standard of living, there has, in fact, been little All figures are percentages 2001 change. While in 1997 29% of the electorate thought that Improve 29 the Assembly would make a positive difference to the No difference 61 standard of living of people in Wales, the proportion in 2001 believing that the Assembly had made a positive Reduce 6 difference was broadly similar. In education, however, Source: 2001 WES

Table 6: Changes are the result of UK Government or Welsh This finding receives further support when we examine Assembly administration (2001) responses to a series of other questions that seek to

explore respondents’ expectations of devolution and their All figures are percentages NHS Education Standard of perceptions of the achievements of the devolved body. living Westminster 60 63 61 More significant are the data relating to the voice that National Assembly 10 10 9 the Assembly would give/is giving Wales within the UK, Other 16 14 17 and whether the Assembly would give/is giving ordinary people more say in government. Giving ordinary people Both 7 6 7 a greater say in how Wales is governed, and giving Wales Don't know 7 6 6 a greater voice in the UK, formed a central plank of the pro- Base 1,027 854 1,000 devolution argument – recall that the 1997 White Paper was Source: 2001 WES titled ‘A Voice for Wales’. The data show that expectations of the Assembly have so far been disappointed.

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the picture is again one of disappointed expectations. These data serve to demonstrate clearly that the majority In 1997, fully one half of respondents thought the advent of respondents do not believe that the Assembly has of the Assembly would bring improvement in the had a beneficial impact on key current policy areas. standard of education. However, by 2001 almost two- thirds of electors thought the Assembly had made Respondents to the 2001 survey were also asked no difference to education, while fewer than a quarter whether the result of Assembly elections and UK general thought the Assembly had made a positive difference. elections would make a difference. This is important A similar question was asked about the health service in the context of turnout, as the relevant evidence from in 2001, again eliciting a broadly similar pattern of elsewhere suggests that voters are less likely to vote responses. In this case, 61% thought the Assembly where they perceive little is at stake in a given election. had made no difference. Table 7: The difference made by general election and These findings are further reinforced by a series of Assembly elections (2001) questions in the 2001 survey designed to draw out opinions on how the NHS, the economy and education All figures are percentages General election Assembly election have fared since 1997, and, crucially, perceptions as to A great deal 20 14 which level of government is responsible for any Quite a lot 28 23 improvements. So, for example, respondents were asked Some 8 20 whether the standard of the NHS had improved since Not very much 26 31 1997. They were subsequently probed further to ascertain None at all 8 12 whether they believed this was a result of the policies of the UK government or of the administration of the Base 1,057 1,041 National Assembly for Wales. Given that the Assembly Source: 2001 WES had only been in existence for two years when the question was asked, and given also the well-advertised These data clearly provide yet further confirmation of a problems in the Assembly’s early months culminating widely held perception that the devolved body has little in the political coup that deposed First Secretary Alun significant impact. It might of course be argued that Michael, we might legitimately expect more respondents these findings suggest that the electorate have a pretty to ascribe primacy to the UK government. Even so the realistic understanding of the limited power enjoyed by scale of the advantage (even on issues such as health the Assembly – and, indeed, the findings on support where a great deal of responsibility has been devolved) for a parliament reported above may serve to support is very considerable. such an interpretation. Such a view is, however, likely to prove cold comfort for Assembly members of all parties seeking some kind of public recognition of their (considerable) efforts. They will perhaps be cheered by the fact that a somewhat less negative picture emerges when we compare public perceptions of Assembly Members to those of Members of Parliament.

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Table 8: MPs/AMs lose touch with their electors (2001) The following table is based on a bank of questions that asked respondents to identify which bodies had the most All figures are percentages MPs Assembly Members influence on the way things were run in Wales, and which Agree strongly 25 17 bodies ought to have the most influence on particular Agree 52 44 issues in Wales. Neither agree nor disagree 13 25 These are fascinating findings. While respondents are Disagree 10 14 clear that the Assembly lacks influence and power, they Disagree strongly 1 1 believe that it should have such influence and expect it Net agree ± +66 +47 to gain influence over the next 10 years. The responses Base 1,076 1,035 on particular policy issues are also very revealing. Source: 2001 WES In terms of food safety standards, while the largest proportion of respondents think that this should be an Assembly responsibility, a significant minority think The striking feature of Table 8 is, of course, that very that local councils should take the principal decisions considerable proportions of the electorate agree with in the field of food safety. In terms of start-up grants for the statement that MPs (and to a lesser extent) Assembly business, respondents clearly identify the Assembly Members lose touch with electors once elected. Fully as the appropriate location for such powers. Particularly 77% of respondents agreed with the proposition in surprising in this regard is the fact that respondents are relation to MPs. Assembly Members fare somewhat evenly split between the Assembly and Westminster better (at ‘only’ 61%), though it is perhaps difficult to in terms of who should be responsible for the level of imagine how any group of individuals could fare much welfare benefits – a power currently not even enjoyed worse than MPs in the current climate. by the Scottish Parliament. The data here suggest that respondents favour regionalisation and localisation. Unequivocally good news for the Assembly emerges The challenge for the 2003 election is to persuade from questions seeking to probe respondents about electors that even with the absence of those powers, which level of government they trusted to champion the they should still vote at the Assembly election. interests of Wales. When asked how far they trusted the UK Government/the National Assembly to act in Wales’ Table 9: Trust UK Government and National Assembly best interests, almost 60% of respondents trusted the to act in Wales’ best interests (2001) Assembly to act in Wales’ best interests at least most of the time. This is well over double the score achieved All figures are percentages UK Government National Assembly by the UK Government. Just about always 2 12 Most of the time 22 48 The National Assembly is thus regarded as the guardian of Wales’ best interests by a clear majority Trust at least most of the time 24 59 of respondents. These findings are further underscored Only some of the time 57 31 by data relating to respondents’ views on the potential Almost never 16 6 future influence of the Assembly when compared with Don’t know 3 4 other levels of governance. Base 1,085 1,085 Source: 2001 WES

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Table 10: Levels of government and their influence (2001)

All figures are percentages Does influence Ought to influence Will influence Food safety Business Welfare Base: 1,085 in 10 years start up grants benefits National Assembly 17 54 39 42 57 41 UK Government 61 26 38 31 14 40 Local councils 14 16 4 20 24 16 European Union 3 1 10 5 1 1 Don’t know 5 4 9 2 4 3 Source: 2001 WES

Attitudes towards politicians The electoral surveys of 1999 and 2001 have also and the political parties asked a range of questions relating to perceptions of the political parties shown in Table 11. Some of the Turning now to politicians and the political parties, the most interesting findings have been elicited by a set of survey data in relation to politicians is relatively sparse questions designed to probe respondents’ perceptions in Wales. Data relating to Rhodri Morgan emerges from of parties and, in particular, their perceptions of which the 2001 Welsh Election Survey, while some data is also sections of the population are best served by the parties. available relating to Ieuan Wyn Jones from the British Election Study Welsh booster sample. The difficulty with the latter source is that, at approximately 400, the number of respondents involved is small. There is no (publicly available) data on Mike German or Nick Bourne.

Setting aside the actual evaluations (positive or negative) of the leader of Welsh Assembly Government and of the official opposition in the National Assembly, the striking point to emerge from these data is that between 25% and 30% of electors have no view on either of them. This may suggest that while the most prominent UK-level politicians may indeed elicit judgements (positive or negative) from the electorate, Assembly-based politicians do not make the same impact. That said, given the (in)visibility of many cabinet members, let alone leading opposition figures at the UK level, it is probably wise not to read too much into this.

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Table 11: Parties looking after the interests of various groups

All figures are percentage Working class Middle class Welsh in general Welsh speakers English in Wales very/fairly closely New Labour 54 78 44 32 53 Welsh Labour 69 75 68 59 55 Plaid Cymru 75 67 85 89 34 Welsh Conservatives 31 76 36 27 62 Welsh Liberal Democrats 70 77 63 49 59 Source: 2001 WES

This table can be analysed both in terms of the relative perceptions of the party platforms within groups and across groups. New Labour is clearly identified as a middle class phenomenon. By contrast, while maintaining a strong appeal to the middle class, Welsh Labour maintains a broadly catch-all profile. Plaid Cymru is also perceived as a party that looks after the interests of the working and middle classes, and is particularly strongly associated with Welsh people in general and Welsh speakers in particular. In contrast, the party is not seen as looking after the interests of English people in Wales. The Welsh Conservatives are identified clearly as a middle class and English party. The Welsh Liberal Democrat profile is less clear and a considerable proportion (in excess of 25%) responded ‘don’t know’ to these questions. Furthermore, on each question the intensity of response was not as strong for the Liberal Democrats as for the other main political parties.

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Wales has traditionally been Given this history, it was a particular disappointment to those involved in the devolution referendum of 1997 regarded as a land of safe (Labour) and the 1999 election that turnout was 50.1% in the seats. The general expectation is former and 45.9% in the latter (see Appendix 2 for turnout by constituency at the 1999 Assembly and 2001 general that when there is less competition election). The percentage turning out at the Assembly for electors’ support, turnout will elections was considerably lower than that of the Scottish Parliament elections held on the same day. It was even tend to be lower than in marginal marginally lower than the 49.7% average turnout at the seats where party competition is local council elections held on the same day in Wales (Rallings and Thrasher 2000, p. xi). strongest. One might, therefore, expect turnout in Wales to be The survey evidence from the 1999 Welsh Assembly Election Survey and the 2001 Welsh Electorate Survey marginally lower than the wider (see Appendix 1) provides a rich source of data to probe UK average. On the contrary, the reasons that lie behind such patterns of (differential) abstention. In order to facilitate such analysis this study however, since the Second World will begin by considering survey data collected in the War general election turnout in immediate aftermath of the 1999 Assembly election. It will firstly seek to ascertain the rationale given by Wales has consistently been two respondents to explain non-participation, before moving or three percentage points higher on to address the sociological and attitudinal bases of participation. The analysis is complemented by than was the case for the rest of considering the data from 2001 and differentiating the United Kingdom. between several groups of respondents: • voters (i.e. respondents who say they would have voted in an Assembly election);

• non-voters (those who say that they did not vote in the general election and would not vote in an Assembly election);

• differential abstainers (those who say that they did vote in the general election but would not vote at the Assembly election).

We shall begin, however, by considering the 1999 Assembly election and the reasons given by voters for not turning out to vote.

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Rationale for non-voting in 1999 Table 12: Reasons given for not voting (1999) Respondents who reported that they had not voted at the 1999 Assembly elections were asked the reasons for All figures are percentages their non-participation. A certain degree of care must be Couldn’t be bothered/not interested 18 exercised when analysing individual responses, in that Don’t believe in Assembly 8 electors will seek to (post)rationalise the decision not Decided not to vote 6 to vote, and therefore may be more likely to present a deliberate decision rather than admit to straightforward Vote wouldn’t have affected who won 2 disinterest. Nonetheless, they do provide some useful Never vote 1 pointers. Questions were organised in such a way as to Total deliberate abstainers 34 generate numerical data as well as allowing respondents to explain in their own words why they had not voted. Work prevented me 11 Turning first to the quantitative survey data (see Table Away on election day 11 12 below), only 8% of those who didn’t vote explained Other commitments/no time 10 their non-participation in terms of hostility towards the Sickness prevented me 6 Assembly. Another 6% of non-voters deliberately Polling card/polling station problem 5 abstained, although it would almost certainly be wrong Respondent had moved 3 to attribute this to hostility towards the Assembly per Total circumstantial abstainers 45 se, given that it is impossible to establish from this data whether or not this reflected a regular pattern of abstentionism in all or most elections. As for the rest, Other answer 13 lack of interest was the most often cited reason for Was not eligible to vote 5 non-voting. A number of other respondents cited Couldn’t decide between the candidates 3 practical considerations such as work (11%), being Electoral system too complicated 0 away on polling day (11%), lack of time or other commitments (10%) and sickness (6%). Given the Source: 1999 WAES concerns expressed in the run up to the elections about the alleged complexity of the new voting system, Individual responses both from the 1999 survey and it is interesting to note that only 0.3% (which has been the focus group research conducted especially for this rounded down in Table 12) cited the voting system as study confirm the general impression gleaned from the a reason for not voting. quantitative data. There are indications that hostility towards devolution did play a role in influencing some All in all, therefore, these data suggest that while hostility voting decisions. So, for example, when asked to explain to devolution was a factor influencing some decisions not non-voting, we find the following responses from two to vote, this was the case for only a very small minority – Labour identifiers in 1999: around 8% of non-voters. The dominant explanations – or perhaps better, justifications – for non-voting were I didn’t agree with the Assembly and so more practical in nature. Of course, it remains the case I refused to vote. that voters are apparently more willing to make the effort to overcome such practical barriers in the context of UK Didn’t agree with the Assembly in the first general elections than was the case in the first elections place. A con from start to finish. to the National Assembly.

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In a similar vein, according to one Conservative I was pulled between Plaid Cymru and Labour. identifier, there is: Labour identifier Enough government in London. In short, therefore, these responses serve to confirm We do not need another. that low participation rates in the 1999 National Assembly election cannot, in general, be attributed to hostility to More striking, however, is the number of respondents devolution per se, but that rather they are a reflection of who report that practical considerations impacted on a more generalised alienation from the political process their ability to turn out and vote. Some reported being as a whole, as well as, in some cases, practical barriers away on the day of the Assembly elections, while others to participation. reported being unable to get to the polling station due to work, ill-health, or due to commitments arising from their role as carers. Another Conservative-identifying respondent, for example, replied that she was elderly and that no one offered to take her to the polling station, consequently making it impossible to vote.

A third broad category of response seems to reflect a generalised disillusionment with politics and politicians: I wasn’t enthusiastic about any of the candidates. I didn’t want to choose one – they were all the same. Labour identifier

Loss of faith in them I suppose. Labour identifier

Don’t believe any of them. Labour identifier

Another category of responses reflected a specific disenchantment with the Labour Party among some electors who identified themselves as Labour identifiers:

At the moment, Labour is as bad as the Conservatives.

I didn’t feel anybody represented my socialistic Labour feelings.

Other voters stayed away from the polls for reasons related to their perceptions of the Labour Party:

I thought it was too controlled by the Labour Party. Green identifier

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Voter groups and turnout in 1999 Table 13 – Participation Survey data from the 1999 Welsh Assembly Election and socio-demographic Survey allow for detailed examination of the relationship characteristics (1999) between social groups and voting behaviour, and in

particular in the present case, voting per se. The findings Percentage reported in Tables 13–16 are largely consistent with the who did not vote more detailed examination via regression analysis which Gender is reported at the end of this section. Male 42 Female 43 Survey findings indicate no significant gender differential in terms of propensity to turn out and vote in 1999. In Age terms of age, there is a very significant differential indeed 18–24 69 ** between the older age groups and particularly the under 25–34 59 ** 35s. While 71% of pensioners reported turning out to 35–44 48 vote, two thirds of those aged under 35 did not vote. 45–54 34 ** Utilising one of the standard measures of social class – the so-called Goldthorpe-Heath schema – we find a 55–64 33 ** predictable pattern of association between class and 65+ 29 ** vote, with the salariat being the most likely social class Social class (GH) to vote and the working class the least likely. Salariat 34 ** Routine non-manual 40 Petty bourgeoisie 42 Manual supervisors 41 Working class 52 ** Ability to speak Welsh Yes, fluent 31 ** Yes, not fluent 40 No 45 ** Place of birth England 44 Wales 42 Identity More Welsh 40 Equally Welsh and British 41 More British 48 ** Other 38 * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 Source: 1999 WAES

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However, we also find interesting relationships between Table 14 – Participation and identity markers and turnout. Welsh speakers were attitudinal/political data (1999) considerably more likely to turn out and vote than those who did not speak Welsh. One means of measuring Percentage national identity in situations such as Wales, who did not vote characterised by a tendency towards overlapping senses Recalled referendum vote of national identity, is the so-called Moreno scale. This Yes 26** invites survey respondents to identify themselves on the No 32** following five point scale: Welsh not British; more Welsh Did not vote 65** than British; equally Welsh and British; more British than Welsh; British not Welsh. In 1999 we also found that Constitutional preference respondents towards the British end of this identity Independence 50* spectrum were marginally less likely to vote. Given this, Parliament 36* it is possibly somewhat surprising that no significant Assembly 40 differences exist between respondents born in Wales No elected body 48** and those born in England (some 25% of the Welsh electorate) in terms of turnout patterns. Trust UK Government At least most of the time 37** The data in Table 14 suggest that the Assembly election At best some of the time 44* turnout in 1999 did indeed reflect a wider sense of Don’t know 63* political alienation in the United Kingdom. There is less Trust National Assembly support for the hypothesis that the low turnout was a reflection of antipathy towards the Assembly. This is At least most of the time 39** highlighted when we examine reported participation in At best some of the time 49** the 1999 election in the light of respondents’ referendum Don’t know 42 vote in 1997. What we find is that both Yes and No voters MPs lose touch from 1997 were likely to turn out in 1999, however, those Agree 44* who abstained at the referendum were very likely to do Neither agree nor disagree 50* so again in 1999. That is, No voters in 1997 tended to vote again in 1999 rather than abstain. When Disagree 27** participation in 1999 is viewed in the light of respondents’ Parties only interested in votes constitutional preferences, the differences are not of Agree 46** such magnitude. We find, however, that the group least Neither agree nor disagree 40 likely to turn out in the Assembly elections were those Disagree 30** who favoured Welsh independence. Respondents who favoured no elected body were also less likely to turn Doesn’t matter which party is in power out than supporters of the Assembly or a parliament. Agree 49** Neither agree nor disagree 43 Disagree 30** * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 Source: 1999 WAES

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The striking feature of the data relating to trust in the Table 15 – Participation and other data UK government and in the National Assembly to act in (1999) Wales’ best interests is the significant relationship between political trust and turnout. These data suggest Percentage that we are not dealing with a specific Assembly impact, who did not vote but rather with a manifestation of broader trust in the Television viewing political process. Or, put in other words, that attitudes BBC1 Wales 37 ** towards the National Assembly are in large measure a BBC1 other 44 reflection of broader attitudes towards politics, politicians Housing tenure and the political process. This conclusion is supported by the data on MPs, political parties and parties in power Owns outright 33 ** where in each case those respondents with greatest faith Owns (mortgage) 45 in the political process are the respondents who are most Rent (local authority) 47 likely to turn out and vote. Rent (other) 56 * Educational qualification Turning now to other data from the 1999 survey, and, first of all, to the impact of the complex patters of television Degree 28 ** transmissions seen in Wales. In 1997 an ‘information HE degree 40 deficit’ was identified within the Welsh polity (Wyn Jones A level 48 and Trystan 1999) linked to the fact that up to 30% Other UK 48 * of electors in Wales receive their television signals from No qualifications 43 England. With very little coverage of the devolution referendum on, for example, Granada or BBC1 West, Main income source turnout was appreciably lower among voters who did Employment earnings 46 ** not watch Wales-based broadcasters on a regular basis. Occupational pension 25 ** We find a similar pattern in 1999 with BBC1 Wales State pensions 33 ** viewers more likely to vote than those watching other State benefits 53 ** BBC1 regional broadcasts. Others 43 ** Electoral region North Wales 44 Mid and West Wales 39 South Wales West 37 South Wales Central 42 South Wales East 50 ** * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 Source: 1999 WAES

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Homeowners were more likely to vote than those who Table 16: Partisan identification rent their accommodation. Respondents whose main and participation (1999) income was pensions were more likely to vote than those in employment and were considerably more likely to Percentage vote than those who were in receipt of state benefits. who did not vote Respondents holding university degrees were the most No party identification 72** likely to vote. Those in the South Wales East electoral Conservative 41 region were the least likely to vote. With regards to all Labour 47** these variables, it is important to bare in mind the Liberal Democrat 28** interaction between different variables – for example, between social class and housing tenure. It is comforting Plaid Cymru 25** in this regard that all these data point in broadly the same Other 44 direction as the other socio-demographic data that we * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 have previously reported in this report. Source: 1999 WAES

To complete this section let us finally briefly consider the data on the relationship between participation and partisan identification. As Table 16 demonstrates, we find that those respondents having no partisan identification were very unlikely to turn out and vote. In terms of political support, both Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrat identifiers were considerably more likely to vote than Labour or Conservative identifiers.

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Logistic regression analysis Panel 1b: Voluntary abstention/other The following panels serve to provide more formal confirmation of the analysis developed in the previous Age -.02 (.01)*** section setting out, as they do, logistic regressions of Class -.52 (.22)** voting and non-voting at the 1999 Assembly election, Female -.01 (.19) along with voluntary abstention/other. They serve Labour identifier -.60 (.25)** to demonstrate the importance of age, class, party Lib Dem identifier 1.31 (.42)*** identification (both Plaid and Liberal Democrat), participation in the 1997 referendum, national identity, Cons. identifier -.43 (.30) attitudes towards politics and sources of information Plaid identifier -2.20 (.52)*** about Welsh politics. ‘MPs lose touch’ -.12 (.11) ‘Parties only want votes’ -.21 (.11) ** BBC Wales viewer -.12 (.20) Panel 1a: Voting/non-voting Voted in referendum -1.10 (.26)*** Importance of Assembly elections .13 (.08)* Age .03 (.00) *** Born in Wales -.22 (.25) Class .41 (.17) ** Constitutional preference -.16 (.11) Female -.07 (.15) Welsh speaker .08 (.15) Labour identifier .15 (.25) Voted ‘no’ in referendum .58 (.30) * Lib Dem identifier 1.13 (.34) *** MORENO identity scale -.02 (.10) Cons. identifier .36 (.29) Weight factor -.07 (.19) Plaid identifier 1.20 (.31)*** Constant 1.55 (.61) ‘MPs lose touch’ .05 (.08) Base 1,256 ‘Parties only want votes’ .29 (.08) *** Log likelihood 794.14 BBC Wales viewer .72 (.17) *** % cases correctly predicted 84.7 Voted in referendum 1.25 (.18) *** Importance of Assembly elections -.15 (.06) ** * p<.10, ** p<.05, *** p<.01 Source: 1999 WAES Born in Wales -.10 (.21) Constitutional preference .04 (.09) Welsh speaker -.07 (.11) Voted ‘no’ in referendum -.11 (.21) MORENO identity scale .13 (.08) * Weight factor -.03 (.13) Constant -3.94 (.54) Base 1,256 Log likelihood 1147.04 % cases correctly predicted 73.3

* p<.10, ** p<.05, *** p<.01

Source: 1999 WAES

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Voter groups and turnout in 2001 Table 17: Socio demographic characteristics and Utilising data from the 2001 WES on reported participation devolved voting (2001) in that year’s UK general election and reported voting intention at an Assembly election, we can identify three All figures are percentages Voter Differential Non-voter abstainer categories of elector: voters, abstainers and differential abstainers. Taking only these three categories, 62% of the Gender electorate in Wales are voters, 17% differential abstainers, Male 62 17 21 and 20% abstainers (all other categories have been Female 63 16 20 excluded from the analysis). Age 18–24 47 ** 15 39 * Table 17, and other subsequent tables, use data from the 2001 survey in order to differentiate between groups that 25–34 50 ** 11 39 ** tend towards non-voting in general and those that are 35–44 62 14 24 more likely to abstain specifically in National Assembly 45–54 63 20 16 elections. The first point to note is that the generalised 55–64 68 17 14 * patterns set out about voting in 1999 seem, in broad 65+ 70 ** 21 9 ** terms, to hold in the 2001 data. Older voters and middle class voters are considerably more likely to Social class (GH) vote. It is interesting to note, however, that it seems that Salariat 75 ** 14 11 ** English-born people living in Wales are more likely to be Routine non-manual 66 17 17 non-voters than those who were born in Wales. There is Petit bourgeoisie 48 ** 20 32 ** a whole set of reasons for this linked to, inter alia and Manual supervisors 61 23 16 inter-relatedly, a historical tradition of higher turnouts in Working class 60 16 24 ** Wales, the effects of neighbourhood embeddedness, and even a specific alienation with the new devolved Ability to speak Welsh structure of politics in Wales (although this final Yes, fluent 71 * 9 * 20 explanation would, of course, lead us to expect greater Yes, not fluent 70 * 12 18 differential abstentionism amongst English-born voters, No 59 ** 20 ** 21 rather than non-voting). Place of birth In terms of differential abstention, two groups stand England 57 16 27 ** out. Non-Welsh speakers are considerably more likely Wales 64 17 19 ** to be differential abstainers than their Welsh-speaking National identity counterparts. We also find an interesting pattern of More Welsh 66 14 20 differential abstention linked to national identity, whereby Equally Welsh and British 63 21 * 16 * respondents who affirm a sense of identity that is equally Welsh and British are the most likely to differentially More British 57 17 26 * abstain at an Assembly election. Other 57 11 32 (all other categories excluded from analysis) * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 Source: 2001 WES

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As Table 18 demonstrates, attitudinal data serves to shed Table 18: Participation and attitudinal/political data (2001) further light on the pattern of voting/non-voting/differential abstentionism. Specifically, lack of knowledge about, or trust in, the political process is a major determinant of non- All figures are percentages Voter Differential Non-voter voting. Those who did not vote in the 1997 referendum abstainer are particularly likely to be general non-voters. It is also Recalled referendum vote interesting to note in passing that respondents who Did not vote 40 ** 22 ** 38 ** believe in independence are particularly unlikely to Yes 83 ** 8 ** 9 ** participate in the democratic process. No 72 ** 19 9 ** When we examine differential abstentionism we do Constitutional preference find some support for the thesis that hostility towards Independence 57 13 30 ** devolution accounts (at least in part) for the lower Parliament 69 ** 14 17 propensity of electors to turn out at Assembly elections. Assembly 72 ** 10 ** 19 Those who voted Yes were considerably less likely to No elected body 52 ** 30 ** 18 specifically abstain at Assembly elections compared to those who did not vote, or who voted No, in the 1997 Trust UK Government referendum. Considering constitutional preferences, At least most of the time 72 ** 13 16 * those respondents who favour no elected body at an At best some of the time 61 ** 18 * 21 all-Wales level were the most likely group to abstain Don’t know 26 ** 11 63 ** in the specific context of an Assembly election. Trust National Assembly In terms of other data, we find the expected patterns of At least most of the time 70 ** 12 ** 18 ** relationships regarding non-voting. However, it is noteworthy At best some of the time 54 ** 23 ** 23 that particularly high levels of differential abstention are Don’t know 27 ** 30 ** 43 ** found among respondents with no qualifications and MPs lose touch those who rely on occupational pensions. Agree 60 ** 17 22 ** It should be noted at this point that a significant gap in our Neither agree nor disagree 65 18 16 information exists with regard to patterns of ethnic minority Disagree 78 ** 10 11 ** electoral participation in Wales. While considerable work has Parties only interested in votes been carried out on how well civil society groups representing Agree 60 ** 17 23 ** ethnic minority representative groups have fared in their Neither agree nor disagree 69 18 12 * relationship with the National Assembly, almost no work has Disagree 75 ** 11 14 been undertaken on the voting behaviour of ethnic minority groups in Wales. In part this reflects the fact that ethnic (all other categories excluded from analysis) minorities account for only 1.5% of the Welsh electorate, * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 with their numbers being particularly concentrated in urban Source: 2001 WES constituencies (the highest percentage of non-white voters is in Cardiff Central at 8.1%, whereas in the official figures for Considerable work has, however, been undertaken at Caernarfon, 0.0% of electors are enumerated as black, with the UK level on ethnic minority electoral participation. 99.5% being classified as white). As a result, quantitative While this work has, in the main, not drawn on data surveys simply do not generate sufficient numbers of ethnic from Wales, the findings may well be relevant to the minority respondents for meaningful analysis. Welsh context. Perhaps the most striking finding of this

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Table 19: Participation and other data (2001) Attitudes towards the voting system There was some concern before 1999 that voters would All figures are percentages Voter Differential Non-voter find the new voting system too complicated. The survey abstainer evidence would seem to suggest that this was not Television viewing the case, but further detail can be found in the study BBC1 Wales 65 17 18 undertaken by the Centre for Research into Elections BBC1 other 67 13 20 and Social Trends (CREST) into the attitudes of voters Housing tenure in Wales towards the voting system. The study addressed three principal questions: did the voters understand Owns outright 68 ** 21 * 11 ** the new system, did they approve of it, and did their Owns (mortgage) 63 17 20 understanding or approval affect their willingness to vote? Rent (local authority) 54 * 12 34 ** Rent (other) 51 * 10 39 ** It appears that the majority of Welsh voters had little Educational qualification difficulty in filling in the ballot papers. They did, however, have much more difficulty in understanding the possible Degree 80 ** 10 * 11 ** consequences of their vote. Only around one in 10 voters HE degree 62 16 22 found the ballot paper ‘very difficult’ or ‘fairly difficult’ to A level 65 11 25 fill in, while two in five found it ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ difficult to Other 62 15 23 understand how votes were translated into seats No qualifications 57 * 23 ** 20 (Curtice et al. 2000, p. 9). Main income source When it comes to support for the use of proportional Employment earnings 62 16 22 representation, a majority of voters in Wales approve of Occupational pension 71 23 7 ** the new voting system. When asked if they agreed that State pensions 71 * 19 10 ** the Assembly should be elected using PR, nearly three State benefits 50 ** 13 38 ** in five people agreed that it should (Curtice et al. 2000, p.12). Over half of voters said they preferred the new way Others 60 20 20 of voting over the old system because it meant that all Region parties are fairly represented (Curtice et al. 2000, p. 13). North Wales 59 15 26 * Over half also agreed that there was more point voting Mid and West Wales 65 14 22 under the new system (Curtice et al. 2000, p. 22). South Wales 63 19 * 18 However, the idea of having their own constituency MP (all other categories excluded from analysis) still has wide appeal in Wales. The Additional Member system used in the Welsh Assembly elections therefore * - sig at 0.05, ** - sig. at 0.01 may have been an important feature in helping make the Source: 2001 WES switch to proportional representation publicly acceptable work is that the different ethnic groups exhibit widely (Curtice et al. 2000, p. 22-3). varying patterns of turnout: it is simply misleading to view the ethnic minority groups as a homogenous, The CREST research concluded that voters did not seem singular entity. But beyond this general point, our to stay away from the polls because they disapproved knowledge of the situation in Wales, and in particular of the new system or because they felt it difficult with regards ethnic minority participation in devolved to understand (Curtice et al. 2000, p. 2). elections, is very limited indeed. It is a gap that we hope to fill in future.

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In order to further investigate non- Attitudes towards politics Emotions linked to politics are often complex, and voting in the context of devolved can relate to an individual’s sense of their own worth in elections in Wales, the qualitative society, as well as to their satisfaction with life in general. Frequently, however, there is an overriding sense of research conducted especially for blandness with regard to politics and political processes. this study focused in particular on The blurring of class boundaries means that voting no longer allows people an opportunity to represent their ‘differential’ and ‘uncertain’ class. A perceived homogeneity in the policies of the abstainers which The Electoral main parties contributes to the sense that casting a vote Commission has identified as key will not make a noticeable difference to their lives. targets for its advertising campaign Many feel that the issues and personalities that once served to engage ordinary people in politics no longer in 2003. The following sections of exist. People no longer feel strongly aligned or opposed this report will seek to provide a to the key personalities on the political scene, as they once did with Margaret Thatcher or Arthur Scargill. more detailed account of the There is a sense that the personalities in politics these attitudes of these particular days are not as controversial or as distinct from one electoral groups. another as they once were. Margaret Thatcher was a very strong figure… nobody springs to mind any more… people in the past were very strong. Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham

If you haven’t got a role model as an MP to look up to, then I don’t suppose you’d be interested [in politics]… I don’t think politicians are exciting enough to get young people interested. Female, non-voter, Swansea

Particular issues that would once have been a matter for discussion among friends, arousing strong feelings and opinions, no longer seem to prompt spontaneous discussion about politics.

People tend not to discuss it now. They might make the odd comment, but there are no real opinions, because what is the point in having an opinion? Fifty, sixty years ago there were things that needed addressing, things that needed to be done because they were desperate. Committed but floating voter, Merthyr Tydfil

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Also contributing to this sense of blandness is the Lack of information perceived blurring of the divides between political parties. Compounding the feeling of alienation from politics, caused in part by a distrust of politicians, is a feeling The Conservatives and Labour, they were very of not being well informed about politics. In fact, individual but now you get the feeling that they many people feel that they would be likely to become are all one big group. interested in politics if they felt more informed. Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham I just don’t know what they’re on about. I just don’t Despite the sense of blandness with regard to politics understand what they are trying to say basically. in general, strong feelings are often aroused on the Female, non-voter, Swansea subject of politicians and their perceived motivations. The cynicism with which politicians are regarded as a The information that is felt to be lacking generally takes group is reflected in a general suspicion of their motives. the form of clear and accessible information on policies and, in particular, government policies. It seems they [politicians] are there to line their pockets now. They’re all going to be chairman The language they are using, you can’t understand of this or that when they finish. what they are on about unless you had a legal Committed Assembly voter, Caernarfon background or something. Female, non-voter, Swansea The bigger the politician, the bigger the ego he’s got. It’s not about the policies he makes, it’s about how People tended to be open about the fact that they are long he can stay in power and how much more not well informed on politics, and this can be attributed powerful he can get. to the fact that they feel that it is the duty of the system Male, likely differential voter, Swansea to provide information which is clear, accessible and sufficiently engaging to attract their attention. The Many feel geographically distant from politics due to accessibility of information also depends on the the perception that key decisions are made in London, language used. Frustration is expressed at the or elsewhere in Wales. way that politics is often communicated.

I feel a bit removed from it [politics] because it’s happening I don’t like the terminology they use a lot of the time. somewhere else…it’s all southern-based, isn’t it? They’re not aiming it at ordinary people. It’s all suited Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham men. They’re all ra, ra, ra. They tend to look down on you, don’t they? We’re just the peasants, we’re Many find that politics is simply not interesting enough not important. to engage them. This lack of interest, however, often Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham exists alongside a feeling that politics is an intimidating and complex subject about which they have insufficient Age, and by association life stage, are the most important knowledge and information to hold a view. determinants of feelings and attitudes towards politics.

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Younger people of media with content about politics. Young people say Those in the younger age range of the qualitative sample they often change the channel when politics is being are characterised by particularly low levels of interest discussed on television, preferring to watch something and involvement in the political process. Engagement else. Politics is seen as a very serious subject rather in politics is no longer something which is in vogue than being entertaining, and not what young people among younger people, and politics and politicians are are looking for from television. Relatively few issues seen as very removed from young people. The image would stop them from changing the channel. of politicians is particularly weak amongst this section of the electorate. They are seen to be very much older, The men among this age group are more likely than and to share nothing of the cultural values of younger women to say they read a daily newspaper, and therefore people. Shared cultural values, or ‘outlook’ is very to have a basic level of knowledge of current issues. Men important to younger people, and politicians are often say they would more often discuss political issues among seen as particularly deficient in their ability to see things themselves, and were more likely to have an interest in from younger people’s perspective. Seen as even more issues over and above education and healthcare. contemptible are the attempts of politicians to ingratiate themselves with younger people through unconvincing Working parents attempts to communicate their ‘coolness’. Of the three-life stage groups profiled in this research, those who are working and those with children are often It’s [politics] lost its cool appeal. Things have changed most engaged in politics, by virtue of specific concerns too much. There’s an age gap….they are 50+, and based on issues relating to their lives, such as education, being 20 you don’t really connect. business, and health. They often feel that political issues Student, likely differential voter, Cardiff have come to be more important since becoming responsible for children. Many have a particular interest Younger people are characterised by their greater sense relating to their job, and issues affecting personal or of ‘ownership’ of international and global issues, often family finances are also of interest. outweighing their interest in domestic issues. For younger people ‘politics’ is as synonymous with the threat of war After the budget, that’s when everyone talks on Iraq as it is with the NHS, if not more so. about it really isn’t it? Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham Those living at home with their parents, particularly women, are dependent on their parents for information I read a really good article and I kept it a few weeks about politics, and often also for direction in terms of ago. It was like a scale of all the hospitals, their results their views on political matters. Younger people often and things like that. Things people can relate to. simply feel that they do not have enough of a ‘stake’ Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham in political decisions to prompt them to participate in politics. Unlike their parents, and others who have their The reason we are voting is the future generation. own homes and have had children, there would seem There is definitely a gap for change in the health to be few political issues which make young people and education services. feel that politics has a relevance to their lives. Female, likely differential voter, Merthyr Tydfil

Awareness and knowledge of politics is particularly low This group is concerned with the hard facts and among younger people, and they are the most likely to figures of budgets and government expenditure and profess to know nothing at all about politics. This can performance, and it is important to them that they be attributed, at least in part, to their low consumption should be informed on the extent to which government

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money is being spent in the areas that they consider in discussion of politics. Older people’s interest in politics to be important. is most often engaged by local events, and by changes to the familiar scenery of their local areas. Of the different There is a feeling among this group that their often life stage groups, they are likely to consume the most strongly held views are not taken into account by the media on the subject of politics. system. This can result in disillusionment with the political process. A sense of alienation also exists amongst this generation, however, and older people are most vociferous in their People have lost interest in the government. criticisms of the perceived financial motivations of People want these new themes and promises politicians nowadays. Distrust of politicians relates to their they come up with…people have lost interest sense that politicians are not as easily distinguishable because they think it’s all talk. from one another as they once were. This results in a Male, likely differential voter, Swansea sense that politicians are presenting ‘a public face’ to a greater degree than they once were which, in turn, makes Information on politics is gained from a variety of media, them less trustworthy. including satellite and terrestrial television, and local, national, and UK newspapers. Lack of information is felt Older Welsh speakers are saddened by the perceived to result from the rather indigestible coverage of political loss of Welsh culture in areas where there are increased issues in the media. Most only make the effort when numbers of in-comers from across the border. This is coverage is about issues of specific interest. viewed, however, as more of an economic inevitability than a political issue on which they need to be proactive. I don’t understand it to be honest with you. I’m interested in important things, to do with law and They come in and change the language of the things like that, but I usually don’t know what playground, and even the church services…not they’re [politicians] going on about. surprising though, because the young people Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham all move out, there’s no work. Committed Assembly voter, Caernarfon Retiring workforce Those who are retired, or are nearing the end of their Attitudes towards the Assembly working lives, have been instilled with a sense of the The findings of the group discussions suggest that importance of engagement with politics. Most remember attitudes to the Assembly are complex, and reach discussions about politics being commonplace in their beyond a mere reflection of people’s attitudes to politics. homes and an emphasis being placed on the It is clear that in the past there existed an expectation that importance of political issues both in the home and a National Assembly for Wales by virtue of its Welshness at school. Nonetheless, they do experience similar would be more likely to act in the best interest of Wales levels of boredom and frustration as other age groups. than the UK government.

Older people have a sense of nostalgia about the I really like the idea. I’m very much for the ‘good old days’ of politics, where personalities and Welsh standing on their own. major issues meant that politics were at the forefront of Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham everyday life. Many recall that politics was very much part of the ‘home and hearth’ in their youth. The perception To some, the idea of a body that will act in the best that contemporary politics is increasingly bland means interests of Wales to the benefit of the Welsh people that people are less inclined to find themselves engaged is still a possibility, were an elected body in Wales to be

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accorded adequate powers to take action. To many, There is little or no awareness of what is discussed in the however, the Assembly has so far not been adequately Assembly day-to-day and the image of the Assembly with visible in taking the necessary decisive steps to win which people most readily associate relates to plans the hearts of the Welsh people. surrounding the creation of the new building in Cardiff. Indeed, many believe that the activities of the Assembly I think it’s good for Wales to say…‘we are doing are focused upon enhancement of the profile of Cardiff what we think, not necessarily what England is doing.’ as a city, including the Cardiff Bay development. Student, likely differential voter, Cardiff It’s just in one city. It’s not like the whole of Wales, it’s You don’t really get the impression that they just towards one city, and obviously the Assembly is are in control. for the whole of Wales supposedly, but it just doesn’t Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham seem to be happening outside of Cardiff. Female, non-voter, Swansea It’s all talking that’s being done. They have no direct control over Wales. They just want it (Cardiff) to look nice for the tourists. Male, likely differential voter, Swansea Female, non-voter, Swansea

Though it is unusual to encounter actual hostility to the Knowledge about the Assembly and its functions is concept of an Assembly for Wales, more widespread is lowest among non-voters, indeed, some of the younger the notion that the Assembly has been set up in order non-voters professed not to have heard of the Assembly. to ‘placate’ Wales, in the absence of a body which The Assembly appears to have little or no public face, has genuine powers to make changes in Wales. with very few participants being aware of who their AM is, and virtually no mention of any politicians associated It’s a false sign of independence…All major decisions with the Assembly. are made by people in London. It’s just to fob us off: give them something to shut them up. Sources of information on the Assembly are local papers Male, likely differential voter, Swansea and word of mouth. Information about its activities is felt to be very thin on the ground. More crucially, few feel that It’s a bit patronising as well, the way that they said they would know where to find information on the ‘oh all right then, you can have your own separate Assembly if they were to require it. little government but not actually have the power to do anything.’ What is the Assembly? Female, non-voter, Swansea The way that the Assembly was viewed by our focus group participants is similar in many ways to the way Knowledge and awareness of the Assembly that a local council might be viewed. It is seen as local For many, there is considerable confusion about the in reach, and the focus is upon provision of services function of the Assembly in Wales. Most assume that it rather than political profile. Though the research indicates has few powers when compared with Westminster, but that there was an early expectation that the Assembly there is a very low awareness of what the actual powers might act as a figurehead for Wales, standing up for the of the Assembly are: interests of Wales in the UK, interest is now focused upon its effect upon services within Wales. I don’t know what the Assembly is…I don’t have a clue about it. Understanding of the function of the Assembly is limited Female, non-voter, Swansea to knowledge that its jurisdiction lies within Wales, and

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that, as distinct from the arrangement in Scotland, it is Nothing else has changed – the hospitals and so on. not a parliament. This leads to the supposition that its No better facilities or more jobs. powers are limited, but this relies more on an assumption Committed Assembly voter, Caernarfon that the Assembly is unable to take action without the approval of Westminster, rather than on any knowledge This mystery can, in turn, lead to suspicions among of the actual powers held by the Assembly. some about the motivations of the people involved in the Assembly. There is a perception, as often exists about It’s not the same as Scotland, that’s more independent. members of local councils, that the people involved are Male, non-voter, Caernarfon motivated by financial gain, and by the idea of gaining power in their local area. I know it has some powers but I don’t know what they are. The people on the Assembly, they’ve all got other jobs. Male, likely differential voter, Swansea They are all connected. Committed but floating voter, Merthyr Tydfil The assumption that the Assembly cannot take action without the say-so of Westminster is a perception that More frequently, lack of understanding of the role of the finds its root firstly in a comparison with the situation in Assembly simply leads to the assumption that it has a Scotland; and secondly in the perception that a Welsh lower relevance to their lives, due to its lack of power as body would be unlikely to be able to make important compared with Westminster. decisions. The Assembly is in the arms of the central There was little or no mention of how the Assembly is government…it’s just an arm of central government constituted or elected, nor of the affiliation of the AMs and the decisions are made down there. to any political party. The Assembly is not yet seen as a Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham means to political representation, but rather as a provider of services, and one which is yet to prove its mettle. Concerns over the integrity of the politicians are No speculation exists as to the effects of the political compounded by lack of knowledge of the activities of make-up of the Assembly on its activities. Although the Assembly, with the exception of the improvements people are conscious that the Assembly is highly made to Cardiff. Our focus group research certainly influenced by Westminster, there is no suggestion that gave little or no indication of any awareness of the this might be the product of party political factors. legislative pay-offs coming from the Assembly. There is, however, an awareness of the opportunity for the Perceptions of the Assembly Assembly to create jobs through attracting business Confusion over the role of the Assembly, coupled with to Wales, which is seen as an important function of the low levels of knowledge about its activities, results in Assembly, particularly by young people. a perception of the Assembly as a rather mysterious institution, and can lead to negative assumptions Among older people, there is an understanding that the about its effectiveness in improving services. Assembly may not have reached its full momentum. This view, however, is usually mediated by the condition that You’re not seeing any benefits from it. There could be, the Assembly would need to be given more powers in order but we don’t know that they’ve done anything. to achieve full effectiveness in providing a voice for Wales. Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham

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The Scottish Parliament has got a lot more power I think they put a lot of money into Cardiff and down than the Assembly. A lot more money to be able to south. Cardiff has been highly developed. All the control things and influence certain big issues. I think money seems to have been pouring in there. Also, it needs to develop, because we are a nation in our we don’t know anything about it and I presume own right. We should have the same sort of set-up that people in Cardiff would know more about as Scotland has. the Assembly because it’s there. Confirmed differential voter, Wrexham Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham

For many, the ‘Welshness’ of the Assembly relates I think that the base is in Cardiff, and the majority directly to the perception that it is likely to have a lesser of the people that wanted it are in the north status. There is a sense in which Welsh identity is tied up of Wales…the nationalistic people. with historical experiences of being ‘annexed’ to England, Female, non-voter, Swansea and the result on the Welsh psyche is the supposition that Wales does not have the resources and capabilities The National Assembly for Wales is perceived, at best, to govern itself. as an institution that has, as yet, failed to achieve its full momentum as a representative body for the needs of I think [the Assembly] is a way of proving that we people in Wales. At worst, lack of information is seen can do it on our own – separate from England, and as a deliberate attempt to obfuscate and conceal I just think it’s a little bit pathetic because we’re always inefficiencies. The Assembly is not currently viewed going to belong to England…we’re not a very big as having an equal relevance to the electorate as country compared to England. Westminster, due both to the lack of knowledge of the Female, non-voter, Swansea Assembly’s role in Wales, and to the assumption that its decisions must be overseen by Westminster. Regional issues In Cardiff, there is greater awareness of the potential I was really looking forward to Wales having an positive benefits of having an Assembly, in terms of the Assembly. We were getting a new voice, a new potential to act in the best interests of Wales. However, beginning. It’s been a big disappointment. there is sense that the Assembly is somewhat ‘taken for We feel we’re being forgotten. granted’ in Cardiff, and that it was probably created with Committed Assembly Voter, Caernarfon the rest of Wales, particularly the more nationalistic North and Mid-Wales, in mind. It’s a good idea, but it doesn’t have enough powers to make it work. There is a perception in all areas other than Cardiff, that Student, likely differential voter, Cardiff although the Assembly may have been created due to pressure from Mid, North and West Wales, that Cardiff is Attitudes towards voting the main beneficiary of the decisions made by the Assembly. There was considerable apathy towards voting among many of the focus group participants, often reflecting I think it’s because it’s on our doorstep we don’t take negative views held about politics in general. The most much notice, but they [in North Wales] don’t have it commonly expressed reason for not voting, or feeling up there so they want to be noticed. apathetic about voting, was the lack of information Student, Cardiff, likely differential voter available about candidates and policies. That they do not have an adequate understanding upon which to base their decisions, is often cited as the key disincentive.

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They ask us to vote for them but you don’t really know …if you live with your parents, obviously they vote who you’re voting for. That’s why I don’t bother voting for the household anyway. because you don’t know who you are voting for, so Female, non-voter, Swansea I don’t see the point of voting. Female, non-voter, Swansea If I had to vote, I’d vote for who my mother voted for, because that’s as much as I know about anything. Voting doesn’t mean a lot because we don’t know If I had to vote, I’d be like a sheep following my mother. what we’re voting for. You’ve got a party’s main stand, Female, non-voter, Swansea but if you don’t know what they stand for then you could just be ticking anyone, couldn’t you. For younger people in particular, past experiences Female, non-voter, Swansea of voting have left them feeling underwhelmed, and their lack of engagement in politics provides them I did know [about the election], but I didn’t know with little incentive to cast their vote. Lack of belief in about the different manifestos and stuff…There politicians leaves them with little faith that their vote wasn’t anything on the telly, nobody came round will make a difference. with loudspeakers. Male, non-voter, Caernarfon It was a novelty. You’re 18 and whatever, and you think, I’ll vote. I’m old enough…It’s an anticlimax. Exploration of feelings about voting, however, suggested You expect something to happen but you just stick that there would be indifference often reflected a more it in and that’s it. general sense that little would result after making the Male, likely differential voter, Swansea effort to vote, and that it is difficult to find motivation to vote in these circumstances. For many younger people, voting is not an event that carries significance in the same way that it does for older I think if they decide something, they just have their generations. own way in the end anyway. If they decide we’re going to have it, we’re going to have it and that’s that. It doesn’t mean anything to me. What’s my vote Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham going to count for? Female, non-voter, Swansea It doesn’t matter who gets in, you still pay the same tax. Male, non-voter, Caernarfon Though many are apathetic about participation, they are not without an understanding of the importance of their I really did think this is it, everything’s going to be democratic rights. Their interest in global issues shows marvellous from now on, but nothing seems to them that freedom and choice (values with considerable change whoever is in government. importance to young people) are only obtained through Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham the opportunity to have participation for all. This idea, however, is often not linked to a sense of the importance Some of the younger voters still living with their parents, of their own participation due to the perceived low particularly women, felt very dependent upon their relevance of politics to their lives in general. parents with respect to voting. This may reflect a more general sense that they are still represented by their It’s important to vote, but you’ve got to vote parents in society. for something you’ve got a slight affinity with. Male, likely differential voter, Swansea

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It’s important, but I’ve lost faith so I don’t bother. The process of registering and voting I just waste my vote because I can’t be bothered. Though not perhaps particularly well informed on the Male, likely differential voter, Swansea processes of registration and voting, people still have a reasonable understanding of the basic requirements We can understand why we should vote, but the thing of voting. There is an awareness that they must register is by doing it, we’re not benefiting from it. So why vote to vote, even if there is no awareness of the opportunity if we’re not seeing any difference? for ‘rolling registration’. Younger people are the least Female, non-voter, Swansea well-informed on registration. They tend to be aware that a form is sent to their homes, though this is For some, voting is an unquestionable duty. This view sometimes confused with Council Tax forms. Younger often stems from a personal core value with regard to people living at home often rely upon their parents participation in democracy, and extends beyond a mere to ensure that registration is dealt with. understanding of the importance of voting. This view tends to be restricted to older people. There is a good awareness of where to go to cast a vote, as this is usually a place in the local community which I’d feel awkward if I didn’t. It’s a duty, a privilege has been used as a polling station for a number of years. in a way. Non-voters are less likely to be aware of the ways in Committed Assembly voter, Caernarfon which they can cast their vote.

I feel as though I must vote. It’s my right to vote, I’d be more likely to vote if you could vote by post. and I must actually vote. Male, non-voter, Caernarfon Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham Voting in the Assembly election I always vote. In every election, I vote, because In the context of the generally apathetic attitude women didn’t always have the right to vote, so if towards politics, and the perceived low relevance of the there’s nobody worth voting for, I destroy my paper, Assembly, the overall attitude towards voting in the next but I still have my right. Assembly election is ambivalent. The attitude of many is Committed but floating voter, Merthyr Tydfil that they cannot be expected to vote in an election about which they do not have the necessary knowledge and For these people, lack of information is more than information. Accessible information on the activities of irritating, and can cause conflict, as they find the Assembly is seen as very scarce, which creates a themselves unable to make an informed choice. low incentive to vote. Many feel that they have no knowledge upon which to base a decision, and the Policies for me, for the local and the general election, perceived lack of relevance does nothing to encourage they went over my head. a search for information. Committed but floating voter, Merthyr Tydfil In a general election, I pay attention, but for There’s no point voting either way if you don’t know the Assembly I don’t bother. what you’re voting for. I don’t believe in voting for Male, likely differential voter, Swansea the sake of it. You’ve got to think it’s going to make a difference. Younger respondents in particular feel that the Assembly Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham election is of even less relevance to them than the general election.

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The Assembly doesn’t affect my life. Nothing in the If they said they would do something more all around campaign will make any difference. Wales (as opposed to just in Cardiff), then we would Male, likely differential voter, Swansea vote. But we don’t see what they are doing, so we don’t really care. The general election has more relevance. Female, non-voter, Swansea Male, likely differential voter, Swansea Potential campaign messages Lack of understanding of the activities of the Assembly The research indicates that differential and non-voters compounds an already apathetic attitude towards voting. (the main focus of the qualitative research) are unlikely Although only some of the non-voters were unaware that to be persuaded to vote by a campaign using an the last Assembly election had taken place, the level of emotional route based on an appeal to Welsh patriotism, motivation of many to take part in the next election is very or an assertion that people were wrong to have not voted low. The lack of information available is felt to be even in 1999. Rather, they are much more likely to be lower than was the case at the 2001 general election. responsive to an information campaign focusing on the rationale of the Assembly, its powers and activities. It’s the interest and the knowledge. Nobody knows anything about it. They’re not going to vote if they The research suggests a series of key information don’t know anything about it. requirements: Confirmed differential voter, Wrexham • Information regarding the role of the Assembly With specific regard to the last Assembly elections in within Wales. This should incorporate messages 1999, few can recall any details of the campaign. about the powers of the Assembly to make changes in Wales, though there is also scope for suggesting I didn’t think it was ‘in your face’ enough. You didn’t what the Assembly actually means for Wales. This see a profile of the politicians and what they are doing. would take the form of a distinct and comprehensible Male, likely differential voter, Swansea public image for the Assembly. • Communication of the main powers held by the Although it would appear that people feel that the Assembly. This will certainly help to involve voters Assembly election is less relevant to them than the who are already engaged in politics to a certain general election, there was no conscious sense that extent through their family and occupational interests, non-voting was a protest against the lesser powers encouraging them to see the link with the Assembly of the Assembly. Rather, the focus was the lack of and their everyday lives. This should take the form knowledge and information, teamed with an assumption of some clear messages about which departments that if the election were more important, they would have exist within the Assembly, and their powers to make heard more about it. changes in Wales. However, delivering on this is greatly complicated by the fact that voters are not It’s not the lack of power, it’s the not knowing. well informed about the distinction that clearly exists Confirmed differential voter, Wrexham in practice (if not so clearly in the 1998 Government of Wales Act) between the National Assembly as a I think it [the low turnout] shows how ignorant legislature and the Welsh Assembly Government we were of the facts of what was happening… as its executive. Nevertheless, the desire for more we didn’t know anything about it. information on what ‘the Assembly’ does is very Committed but floating voter, Merthyr Tydfil widely held.

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• What the Assembly has achieved so far, and its key They don’t explain it simply. It’s all just gibberish. If they policies for the next term. This will help people to explained it themselves then perhaps we would vote. understand what the Assembly has done and what Female, non-voter, Swansea it is committed to delivering. People say that this will help in encouraging them to vote. It’s got to be set out clearly to be understood in layman’s terms. You’ve got to know what they stand for…are they going Male, likely differential voter, Swansea to improve on what they have got already? Male, likely differential voter, Swansea There is an opportunity for the Assembly to develop a public image for itself, allowing people to feel that In the local paper, you’d see what money’s being they understand the personality of the Assembly. spent on your area. This understanding of the characteristics of the Male, likely differential voter, Swansea Assembly seems to be currently lacking from people’s consciousness. The research suggests that a desirable They could say what they’ve done, and what they’ve image for the Assembly would include the following traits: spent the money on. Little bullet points: we’ve done this • Straightforward and no-nonsense. Currently, the lack and this, and this is what we intend to do in the future. of information about the activities of the Assembly, Female, non-voter, Swansea teamed with a lack of a visible public image, results in an assumption of lower effectiveness. An Assembly I would want to see a progress report: which is seen to be taking decisive action, and also we’ve achieved this. communicating clearly its activities, would reassure Confirmed differential voter, Wrexham people of its effectiveness. Where people feel aggrieved about the perceived lack If they said: this is what we are hoping to do. These are of information available on the Assembly, a sense of our plans and our strategies, this is what we propose. pressure to vote may prove counter-productive. Similarly, Obviously its not going to happen overnight. If they say a light-hearted approach is likely to fail to satisfy the this is what we are doing, we need the money to do requirement for a ‘no-nonsense’ communication of whatever – fine. OK. We will accept that. information about the Assembly, and might exacerbate Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham doubts about its effectiveness. A more effective emotional • Able to understand the needs of younger people. tone for the campaign would be to focus upon the ability As the political world is felt to largely ignore younger of the Assembly to carry out improvements to essential people, there is an opportunity for the Assembly to services in Wales, such as health and education, and a position itself as more ‘in touch’ with the lives of focus on the potential benefits to the lives of Welsh younger people. Young people are currently most people through improved services. lacking a clear understanding of the Assembly. These messages should include an awareness of global The language used for the message should be clear issues, and an understanding of the cultural values and expressed in layman’s terms. The language used of younger people. However, it should be noted that is cited as a major factor in people’s alienation from an attempt to reflect the cultural values of young people politics. There is an opportunity for the Assembly to which seems inauthentic may serve to further alienate position itself as more in touch with Welsh people by young people. For this reason, caution should be presenting messages which are easily comprehensible. exercised in this area.

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Get somebody younger on telly. There are far too Channels through which the messages should be many old fogeys. communicated should be mainstream, and not restricted Male, non-voter, Caernarfon to Welsh language television, or the most ‘Welsh’ of the local newspapers. There is a rejection among some of • A voice for Wales. The findings suggest that there is an the idea of leafleting, as leaflets are often ignored and understanding that the Assembly was set up in order to discarded. Many felt that they would be most likely to provide a voice for Wales, and to represent the people respond to television advertising. There was some of Wales in the UK and international arenas. There is suggestion among parents that younger people would also a perception that the Assembly is more likely to be likely to respond to newer media such as SMS understand the needs of people in Wales than the UK messaging or the internet, but this view was not Parliament is: necessarily held by younger people. We’ve got the identity. You feel that the people are It should be like the general election. People there to represent Wales. explaining things. They should have people talking Female, likely differential voter, Wrexham about it in the national newspaper every day. Male, likely differential voter, Swansea Caution should be exercised, however, in attempting to incorporate messages referring to Welsh identity in communicating the image of the Assembly. As previously described, the ‘Welshness’ of the Assembly may be the source of some of the negative perceptions of its scope to ‘make a difference’. Also, there is a sense that the Assembly has had a merely cosmetic function within Wales, and this may be exacerbated if the Assembly is seen to be ‘playing up’ a patriotic image.

Patriotism shouldn’t have anything to do with it. Things like health, transport and jobs have nothing to do with the country you come from. Male, likely differential voter, Swansea

Wales votes?: understanding non-voting – qualitative research 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 051 51 References

Baynes, K. (2000) ‘Deliberative Politics, the Public Rallings, C. and Thrasher, M. (1999) The Local Election Sphere, and Global Democracy,’ in R. Wyn Jones (Ed.) Handbook 1999, Local Government Chronicle Elections Critical Theory and World Politics, Lynne Rienner Centre, Plymouth. Publishers, Boulder, CO., pp. 161-70. Rawlings, R. (1998) ‘New Model Wales’, Journal of Law Bradbury, J., Denver, D. and MacAllister, I. (2000) and Society, 25(4), 461-509. ‘The State of Two Nations: An Analysis of Voting in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly Elections 1999’. Reif, K. and Schmitt, H. (1980) ‘Nine second order Representation, 37, 5-18. elections: a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results’. European Journal of Political Clarke, H. D., Sanders, D., Stewart, M. C. and Whiteley, Research, 8, 3-44. P. F. (2001) ‘Turnout’ in P. Norris (Ed.) Britain Votes 2001, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 211-24 Taylor, B. and Thomson, K. (Eds.) (1999) Scotland and Wales: Nations Again? University of Wales Press, Cardiff. Clarke, H. D., Sanders, D., Stewart, M. C. and Whiteley, P. F. (2002) ‘Britain (Not) at the Polls, 2001’. Unpublished Wyn Jones, R. and Trystan, D. (1999) ‘The 1997 Welsh paper. referendum vote’, in B. Taylor and K. Thomson (Eds.) Scotland and Wales: Nations Again? University of Wales Curtice, J., Seyd, B., Park, A. and Thomson, K. (2000) Press, Cardiff, pp. 65-93. Wise After the Event? Attitudes to Voting Reform Following the 1999 Scottish and Welsh Elections, The Constitution Unit, London.

Davies, R. (1999) Devolution: A process not an event, Institute of Welsh Affairs, Cardiff.

Dunleavy, P. (2000) Evidence to the House of Commons Select Committee on Public Administration, 15 March.

Farrell, D. (2001) Electoral Systems: a Comparative Introduction. Palgrave Press, London.

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Nicolaas, G. Thomson, K. and Lynn, P. (2000) The Feasibility of Conducting Electoral Surveys in the UK by Telephone, National Centre for Social Research, London.

Pateman, C. (1970) Participation and Democratic Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Wales votes?: References 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 052 52 Appendix 1: Survey details

The cross-sectional surveys cited in this report were multi- stage cluster samples, stratified at the cluster level, and drawn from the Postcode Address File (PAF). Data from the 1997 Welsh Referendum Survey (WRS) and 2001 Welsh Election Survey (WES) were collected by computer- aided, face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes.

The 1999 Welsh Assembly Election Survey (WAES) included a methodological experiment designed to test the feasibility of telephone surveys. Thus, around half of the interviews were conducted face-to-face with the sample being drawn via the PAF. The remaining respondents were contacted by telephone with the sample being drawn through two different techniques, namely Random Digit Dialling (RDD) and PAF. Full details of the technical aspects of this survey can be found in Nicolaas, Thomson and Lynn (2000). Full details of the sampling design etc. for the 1997 survey are reported in the appendices of Taylor and Thomson (1999).

The WRS of 1997 achieved a response rate of 72.8% and a sample of 686. The 1999 WAES achieved a sample of 1,251. The response rate for the face-to-face interviews was 67% giving a sample of 522, while the response rate for the two telephone samples was substantially lower at 34% and 36%.

The 2001 WES achieved a response rate of 69% and a sample size of 1,085.

The WRS, WAES and WES were funded by the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and were directed by Richard Wyn Jones (Aberystwyth) and Anthony Heath (Oxford). The surveys were run by the National Centre for Social Research and data can be obtained from the Data Archive at The University of Essex.

Wales votes?: appendix 1 3560 Voter Attitudes- Wales 16/12/02 11:14 am Page 053 53 Appendix 2: Constituency turnout in 1999 and 2001 1999 Assembly elections constituency vote 2001 general election

Constituency Electorate Percentage turnout Electorate Pecentage turnout Aberavon 49,786 46.8 49,524 61.0 Alyn and Deeside 59,386 32.0 60,478 58.6 Blaenau Gwent 53,919 48.2 53,353 59.5 Brecon & Radnorshire 51,166 57.1 53,247 70.5 Bridgend 60,234 41.5 61,496 60.2 Caernarfon 47,213 60.3 46,850 62.0 Caerphilly 65,997 43.2 67,300 57.7 Cardiff Central 57,815 44.7 59,785 58.3 Cardiff North 61,398 51.3 62,634 69.0 Cardiff South & Penarth 61,149 37.7 62,627 57.1 Cardiff West 57,717 40.2 58,348 58.4 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 53,634 60.9 54,035 70.4 Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 55,655 50.6 56,518 65.3 Ceredigion 55,311 57.7 56,125 61.7 Clwyd South 53,843 40.5 53,680 62.4 Clwyd West 53,952 46.8 53,962 64.1 Conwy 55,189 49.1 54,637 62.9 Cynon Valley 47,619 45.5 48,639 55.4 Delyn 54,047 44.1 54,732 63.3 Gower 58,523 47.3 58,935 63.4 Islwyn 50,600 47.3 51,230 61.9 Llanelli 58,371 48.6 58,148 62.3 Meirionnydd Nant Conwy 32,922 57.3 32,969 63.9 Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 55,858 44.9 54,919 57.7 Monmouth 61,999 51.1 62,200 71.5 Montgomeryshire 43,386 49.4 44,243 65.5 Neath 56,085 47.9 56,001 62.5 Newport East 54,196 35.5 57,219 54.7 Newport West 57,243 42.3 59,345 59.1 Ogmore 51,998 41.5 52,185 58.2 Pontypridd 64,597 45.4 71,768 53.4 Preseli Pembrokeshire 54,225 53.6 54,283 67.8 Rhondda 55,398 50.2 56,121 60.6 Swansea East 57,766 36.1 57,520 52.3 Swansea West 59,369 39.9 57,493 55.8 Torfaen 61,037 39.2 61,115 57.7 Vale of Clwyd 51,124 43.4 50,842 63.6 Vale of Glamorgan 67,804 48.3 67,774 66.7 Wrexham 50,932 34.2 50,465 59.5 Ynys Môn 52,571 59.6 53,398 63.7 Wales 2,211,034 46.9 2,236,143 61.4

Note: Lower than average turnouts are highlighted in bold. Wales votes?: appendix 2