Climate Change Impacts in Greece in the Near Future

September 2009 Climate change impacts in Greece in the near future

Authored By: C. Giannakopoulos 1 , E. Kostopoulou 1 , K. Varotsos 1 and A. Plitharas 2 1 National observatory of Athens, Greece 2 WWF Greece Introduction

The Mediterranean region is mate indicators, associated to vulnerable to climate change extreme climate, were calcu- particularly due to its sensitiv- lated for each selected area. ity to drought and rising tem- The impacts of climate peratures. Climate change is changes are expected to be related to changes in the fre- related with changes in the quency and intensity of ex- frequency of extreme climate treme climate events, which events than to changes in may adversely affect vital eco- mean conditions. This is par- nomic sectors, such as agri- tially attributed to the fact culture and tourism, and have that a change in the ‘mean’ substantive impacts on local climate could cause dispro- communities. In addition, ex- portional changes in the extreme climate events can be treme climate events. destructive to human health, Records from the National while climate change may also Statistical Service of Greece have a direct impact on local were consulted in order to people’s lives as it affects sec- set criteria and then select tors such as water resources the 10 representative sub- Inside this issue: and energy. For all these rea- regions for each economic sons, in recent years the sci- sector in question. In particu- Introduction 1 entific community has devel- lar, the urban regions re- The model was developed oped a special interest in search focused on the 10 larg- within the framework of the Urban areas 2 studying potential future cli- est Greek cities based on EC-FP6 ENSEMBLES Project mate changes. their population size. Regard- (www.ensembles-eu.org), by In this study an attempt is 5 ing the agricultural regions, the Royal Netherlands Mete- Tourist areas made to investigate potential the 10 regions occupying the orological Institute (KNMI), at implications of climate change largest numbers of agricul- 25km horizontal resolution Agriculture 7 in the near future (2021- tural workers were selected. and under the IPCC emission 2050) in Greece. Urban, tour- The 10 most important scenario A1B. Two 30-year Forestry 10 istic, agricultural and forest Greek tourist destination periods were considered in areas are selectively examined sites were defined according this study. The present period Conclusions 12 to estimate future climate to the official accommodation is constrained to the years change impacts. In order to capacity (higher number of 1961-1990 and the future achieve this, the Greek region beds available). Finally, the 10 covers the period 2021-2050. was divided into sub-regions largest natural conservation For each of the selected re- which are considered vulner- parks in Greece were studied. gions, maps produced illus- able to climate shocks such as Present and future model data trating the change in extreme extreme temperatures, from the Regional Climate climate indices between the droughts, floods. Subse- Model RACMO2 were used two 30-year periods (2021- quently, several extreme cli- in this study. 2050 - 1961-1990). Climate change impacts in Greece in the near future

Urban areas Climate projections for the Urbanization itself greatly needs to range from the cur- Mediterranean suggest that affects surface characteristics rent observed time period the region will become and their interaction with the (using available meteorologi- warmer and drier with more wider atmosphere. This leads cal and sector data) to future frequent and extreme to distinct urban climates that time periods using data from weather events. This presents differ substantially from rural several climate change pro- a threat to urban areas in the environments. The most ap- jections. In addition, a multi- form of increased risks for parent consequence of this is sector approach to climate flash floods and heatwaves. the urban heat island. The change impacts has to be These climate hazards will capacity for the built environ- adopted. Impact sectors inevitably aggravate other ment to store heat during the range from direct climate environmental issues, such as day and release it at night, impacts on natural ecosys- water resource availability, along with the direct release tems (such as flash floods and saltwater intrusion, air pollu- of heat through human activ- forest fire risk) to indirect tion and peri-urban forest fire ity (for example heating or impacts resulting from com- risk. Socio-economic sectors cooling of buildings, traffic, bined climate-social- will also be impacted. Human and human metabolism) can economic linkages (such as health will be a major issue of contribute to higher tem- energy demand, tourism and concern under climate change peratures within cities com- health). Furthermore, the together with the challenges pared to their rural sur- dynamics of the climate sys- of rising energy demand for roundings. The urban heat tem needs also to be exam- cooling and shifts in the sea- island is also sensitive to the ined in an integrated fashion. sonal pattern of tourism. Vul- ambient weather and climate. An indicative analysis of cli- nerability to climate change is In an urban area study, an matic parameters with direct greater for urban areas with integrated approach is re- or indirect implications for limited economic resources, quired across multiple tem- urban areas has been under- rapid population growth and poral and spatial scales and taken for the 10 largest poor planning and regulation. sectors. In the spatial dimen- Greek cities. The locations of Increased frequency of heat- sion, work needs to extend urban areas appear in Figure waves and persistence of high from the inner city bounda- 1, while Table 1 shows their temperatures are the key ries to the surrounding populations. aspects of climate change mountains and forests. In the common to all urban areas. temporal dimension, research

Table 1: The 10 largest Greek cities and their populations.

Urban area Population Inner Athens 789166 Thessaloniki 385406 Patras 171616 Iraklion 142112 Larissa 132779 Volos 85001 Ioannina 75550 Kavala 63572 Lamia 62452 Figure 1: The 10 largest Greek cities Page 2 Kalamata 61373 Number of days with T >35 oC

In Figure 2 the changes in where more than 20 hot the number of days where days per year are expected. temperature is above 35 oC Modest changes appear in are plotted, which is also Athens, Ioannina and Volos expected to have an impact with increases that do not in population discomfort in exceed 15 days, whereas the urban areas. It is evident Iraklion reveals smaller in- that this parameter increases of up to 10 days. creases in all selected Greek Regarding this parameter, cities. The largest changes the influence of the nearby seem to occur in the cities sea is playing a dominant of Thessaloniki, Patras, role in tempering the fierce Kalamata, Larissa and Lamia summer heat.

Figure 2: Changes in the number of days above 35 oC between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 for selected regions in Greece. Number of nights with T >20 oC

Another parameter very important for the urban areas is the change in the number of warm nights per year. We de- fine these as nights where night-time temperature is above 20 oC and characterise them ‘tropical nights’. In addition, this parameter is closely associated with population health, since a ‘tropical’ night following a ‘heatwave’ day can lead to increased levels of population heat stress and discomfort. Figure 3 displays changes in this parameter for the selected urban sites in Greece. It becomes clear from this figure that tropical nights increase almost everywhere and it is inter- esting to note that coastal urban sites are more affected than continental cities. According to the findings of this figure, all selected urban sites except Ioannina will experience about an extra month per year of warm nights. In Ioannina, the increase will be less than 20 days, possibly due to the cooling effects of the breezes from the nearby Pindos mountains.

Figure 3: Changes in the number of tropical nights (Tmin>20 oC) between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 for selected regions in Greece.

Page 3 Climate change impacts in Greece in the near future

Energy demands

An important implication of require cooling, i.e. an in- demand for heating during climate warming in urban creased use of air condition- the cold period of the year. areas is the increased de- ing. More specifically, 15 From this analysis became mand of electricity for cool- extra days per year will re- apparent that practically all ing in summer. This in- quire cooling in Thessalo- urban areas in Greece will creased demand may cause niki, Larissa and Lamia and experience a decline of the disruptions and overloading 10 extra days in Athens, heating requirements in in the electricity network of Kavala, Volos, Patras, winter season (not shown). the country, which may not Iraklion and Kalamata. The More specifically we expect be able to meet these levels city with the smallest in- that there will be 15 fewer of demand. In Figure 4 the creases is Ioannina with only days per year that will re- changes in the number of 5 extra days requiring cool- quire heavy heating in all days per year requiring ing per year. areas. heavy cooling per year are A positive aspect of climate plotted. It is evident that change in the urban regions more days per year will may be the reduced energy

Figure 4: Changes in the number of days with large cooling requirements between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 for selected regions in Greece.

Summary for urban areas ( redredred : increase, blueblueblue : decrease)

No of hot days No of tropical nights 3day rainfall (%) Energy cooling demand Energy heating demand (days) (days) Inner Athens 101010-10 ---15151515 303030 101010 101010 151515 Thessaloniki 151515-15 ---20202020 303030 101010 151515 151515 Patras 151515-15 ---20202020 303030 --- 101010 151515 Iraklion <10<10<10 303030 --- 101010 151515 Larissa 151515-15 ---20202020 303030 151515 151515-15 ---20202020 151515 Volos 101010-10 ---15151515 303030 151515 101010 151515 Ioannina 101010-10 ---15151515 151515 --- 555 151515 Kavala 101010-10 ---15151515 303030 --- 101010 151515 Lamia 151515-15 ---20202020 303030 202020 101010-10 ---15151515 151515 Kalamata 151515-15 ---20202020 303030 --- 101010 151515 Tourist areas Tourism is closely linked to climate, in lengthening and a flattening of their terms of the climate of the source and tourism season by 2030. Occupancy destination countries of tourists and rates associated with a longer tourism climate seasonality, i.e., the seasonal season in the Mediterranean will spread contrast that drives demand for sum- demand evenly and thus alleviate the mer vacations in Europe. Conditions for pressure on summer water supply and tourism are expected to improve in energy demand. Water availability and Table 2: The 10 most important supply may also be heavily impacted on northern and western Europe, which Greek tourist destination sites. might lead to a gradual shift of tourist future climate change conditions as well destinations further north and up the as energy supply and demand. Specifi- Tourist area No of beds mountains affecting the preferences of cally with increased energy demand to sun and beach lovers from western and meet air conditioning needs, alternative 1. Dodecanese 120,768 northern Europe for the Mediterranean. ways for energy supply and generation 2. Attica 63,749 Mountainous parts could become more must be sought. popular because of their relative cool- An indicative analysis of climatic pa- 3. Iraklion 63,484 rameters with direct or indirect implica- ness. Higher summer temperatures may 4. Halkidiki 59,882 lead to a gradual decrease in summer tions for tourist areas has been under- tourism in the Mediterranean but an taken for the most important tourist 5. Cyclades 50,500 destinations in Greece (Figure 5). These increase in spring and perhaps autumn. 6. Corfu 46,182 Scientific research has shown that areas together with the number of avail- Greece and Spain will experience a able beds appear in Table 2. 7. Chania 34,452 8. Rethymno 29,329 9. Pieria 29,192 10. Zante 27,629

Figure 5: The 10 most important Greek tourist destination sites

Figure 6: Changes in the number of tropical nights (Tmin>20 oC) between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 for selected regions in Greece. Hot days and tropical nights The changes in the number of days, with temperature above 35 oC, were examined, which are also expected to have an impact in population discomfort in the tourist areas. It became clear that tourist sites with a more continental influence will experience the largest changes (not shown). For instance, Attica shows a 15-day increase and Iraklion a 10-15 day increase. Smaller island sites with more pronounced the sea influence, present smaller changes. Zante and Corfu show an increase of about 5-10 hot days, which is nevertheless important if one considers the fact that such temperatures have not been recorded in the present day period in these sites. Tropical nights tend to increase almost everywhere and in this case island sites are affected even more than continental areas (Figure 6). All selected tourist sites will experience about an extra month of warm nights per year. This coupled with increased humidity levels close to the sea will add to the discomfort of tourists. Climate change impacts in Greece in the near future

Figure 7: Changes in the number of summer days (Tmax>25 oC) between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 for selected regions in Greece.

o Number of summer -like days (T >25 C)

Changes in the number of summer-like days per year have also been examined. A summer day is defined as a day with maximum temperature (Tmax) above 25 oC. Changes in this parameter might consist a positive impact of climate change in tourist areas, since an increase may lead to a lengthening of the tourism season and consequently a relief of the pressure in the peak summer months of July and August. Figure 7 presents the changes in summer days for selected tourist areas in Greece. More than 20 additional summer days are expected by 2050 in all tourist areas of Greece. This figure may increase to 30 (i.e. an extra month per year) in coastal areas. This practically means that the tourism season may be extended by as much as 1 month. Another important implication of climate warming in tourist areas is the increased demand of energy for air conditioning in summer. It became evident that more days per year will require cooling, implying an increased use of air conditioning (not shown). For instance, 15 extra days will require cooling in Pieria and 10 extra days in Athens, Iraklion and the north part of Rhodes. Summary for tourist areas ( redredred : increase, blueblueblue : decrease)

No of hot days No of tropical nights No of summer days Forest fire risk (days) Energy cooling demand (days) Rhodes 555-5---10101010 303030-30 ---40404040 202020-20 ---30303030 101010 555-5---10101010 Attica 151515 303030 202020-20 ---30303030 151515 101010 Iraklio 101010-10 ---15151515 303030 202020-20 ---30303030 101010 101010 Halkidiki 101010 303030 202020-20 ---30303030 101010 555 Cyclades --- 303030 252525 555-5---10101010 --- Corfu 555-5---10101010 303030 202020-20 ---25252525 101010 555 Chania 101010 303030-30 ---40404040 303030 101010 555 Rethymno 101010 303030 303030 101010 555 Pieria 101010 303030 202020 101010 151515 Zante 555 303030 252525 555-5---10101010 ---

Agriculture An extensive analysis of be very important to assess drought and desertification climatic parameters associ- possible future water short- gets intensified. Desertifica- ated with agricultural and ages over the region and to tion means land degradation water demand needs, such provide a basis for associ- in arid, semi-arid and dry as mean precipitation and ated impacts on the agricul- sub-humid areas resulting drought duration are pre- tural sector. Substantial from a combination of cli- sented for the most impor- changes in some of these mate effects (persistent hot tant agricultural areas in indices exhibit significant and dry conditions) and Greece, which are shown in environmental implications human activities (such as Table 3 below. Changes in in the domain of study. For overcultivation, overgrazing, the number of wet and dry example, increasing trends deforestation and poor irri- spells as well as drought in the number of consecu- gation practices. duration have been investi- tive dry days can be indica- gated. Such changes should tive that the problem of

Table 3: Agricultural areas in Greece and number of people working in agriculture in each area. Agricultural area Population of workers 1. Iraklion 79,182 Max length of drought spell (<1mm) Figure 9 shows the changes in dry spell length over the selected 2. Aitoloakarnania 71,635 agricultural areas in Greece, i.e changes in the length of the spell 3. Messinia 53,236 where precipitation is less than 1mm per day. It becomes evident from Figure 9 that the length of dry period tends to in- 4. Larissa 50,459 crease. Small increases of less than 10 days appear in the agricul- 5. Ilia 48,662 tural areas of western Greece (Achaia, Ilia, Messinia, Aitoloakar- nania). Larissa and the southern part of Iraklion present an in- 6. Achaia 47,561 crease of around 10 days, whereas Serres, Pella and the north- 7. Evia 44,710 ern part of Iraklio show increases of 15-20 days. Large increases are revealed for the areas of Fthiotida and Evia, especially in the 8. Serres 43,249 northern parts where around 25 more dry days are expected. 9. Fthiotida 42,809 10. Pella 41,166

Figure 9: Changes (number of days) in the length of the dry period between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 in selected regions in Greece. Figure 8: The 10 agricultural areas studied in this report (numbers are assigned to regions according the Table 3) Climate change impacts in Greece in the near future

Fire Risk

Figure 10 presents the days of fire risk per year are which is also expected to changes for the number of expected. An extension of have an impact in the produc- days with fire risk, a parame- the fire risk period by 15 days tive stage of crops. This pa- ter important for agricultural is evident in the areas of Evia rameter seems to increase in areas with trees (such as and Iraklion whereas modest all selected agricultural areas olive, orange, peach trees). It increases by around 10 days (not shown). As expected, becomes evident that fire risk are shown for areas in the the inland prefectures of Ser- increases substantially every- western part of Greece: res and Larissa exhibit large where. However, the most Achaia, Ilia, Messinia, Aito- changes that reach 20 days. considerable increases occur loakarnania. In addition, we Modest changes of about 15 in the agricultural regions of have investigated the changes days occur in the remaining Serres, Pella, Fthiotida and in the number of days where areas. Larissa where up to 20 more temperature is above 35 oC,

Figure 10: Changes in the number of days with significant fire risk between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 for selected regions in Greece.

Frost nights

In Figure 11, changes in the number of frost nights are illustrated. This is very important for agricultural areas, especially where sensitive crops exist, such as orange and lemon groves. Reductions in the order of more than 15 days are evident in Pella, followed by 10-to-15 days in Serres, Larissa and Fthiotida. Small reductions occur in the other examined regions, although we should point out that they do not experience many frost nights at the first place.

Figure 11: Changes in the number of frost nights (Tmin<0 oC) between 2021-2050 and 1961- 1990 for selected agricultural regions in Greece.

Page 8 Seasonal Precipitation

The percentage changes in seasonal precipitation were calculated for the selected agricultural regions in Greece. The patterns are different for each season. In particular, winter precipitation decreases in the selected agricultural areas with more substantial decreases of 15% occurring in the areas of Serres, Pella and Iraklion. The other areas show decreases of about 5-10% (Figure 12). The percentage changes in autumn precipitation are different from those in winter (not shown). In most of the agricultural areas an increase of precipitation is projected. More specifically, the areas of Larissa and southern Evia will experience increases of up to 20%, whereas Pella and Iraklion will see increases of around 15% followed by Fthiotida with a 10% increase. In the other seasons (not shown), reductions similar to winter are projected but to a smaller degree. The general picture results in small overall reductions in annual precipitation for all areas.

Figure 12: Percentage changes in winter precipitation (%) between 2021-2050 and 1961- 1990 for selected regions in Greece.

Summary for agricultural areas ( redredred : increase, blueblueblue : decrease)

Length of dry Fire risk (days) Days >35 ο C Frost nights Winter precipita- Autumn precipitation period (days) tion (%) (%) Iraklion 101010-10 ---20202020 151515 151515 --- 151515 151515 Aitoloakarnania 101010 101010 151515 --- 555-5---10101010 --- Messinia 101010 101010 151515 --- 555-5---10101010 --- Larissa 101010-10 ---15151515 202020 202020 101010-10 ---15151515 555-5---10101010 202020 Ilia 101010 101010 151515 --- 555-5---10101010 --- Achaia 101010 101010 151515 --- 555-5---10101010 --- Evia >25>25>25 151515 151515 --- 555-5---10101010 202020 Serres 151515-15 ---20202020 202020 202020 101010-10 ---15151515 151515 --- Fthiotida 202020 202020 151515 101010-10 ---15151515 555-5---10101010 101010 Pella 151515-15 ---20202020 202020 151515 151515 151515 151515

Page 9 Climate change impacts in Greece in the near future

Forestry Mediterranean forests are concern, since it might lead increase in temperature will regularly subject to a large to many ‘side effects’, such as increase fuel dryness and number of fires. An average floods, soil erosion and con- reduce relative humidity and of 50,000 fires sweep away sequent loss of fertility. Fur- this effect will worsen in from 700x10 3 to 1000x10 3 ha thermore, forest fires play a those regions where rainfall of Mediterranean forests per fundamental role in determin- decreases. Accordingly, in- annum, causing enormous ing the net carbon balance of creases in climate extreme economic and ecological de- the forest. Thus, they may events are expected to have a struction. In particular, the affect greenhouse gas emis- great impact on forest fire data collected reveal that, sions with consequent direct vulnerability according to the average repercussions on climate An extensive analysis of cli- burnt area per fire, Greece change. matic parameters with direct has the most severe forest Forest fires, as any other or indirect implications for fire problems among the ecosystem process, are highly forested areas has been un- European Union countries. It sensitive to climate change dertaken for the most impor- has been estimated that the because fire behaviour re- tant natural conservation average area burnt per fire sponds immediately to fuel areas in Greece. These areas was 39.4 ha in Greece, 28.47 moisture, which is affected by are marked in Figure 13, ha in Spain, 19.74 in Italy and precipitation, relative humid- while together with their 15.29 in Portugal. The de- ity, air temperature and wind occupied area in hectares struction of forests is of great speed. Thus, the projected appear in Table 4.

Table 4: Natural conservation parks in Greece and the area they cover. Conservation park Area Hectares

Vikos-Aoos Ioannina 9300 Prespes Florina 4900 White Mountains Chania, Crete 4850 Olympos Pieria 3988 Parnitha Attica 3812 Pindos Ioannina 3534 Parnassos Viotia, Fokida 3513 Iti Fthiotida 3010 Ainos Cephalonia 2862 Sounio Attica 2750

Figure 13: The 10 largest natural conservation parks in Greece

Page 10 Fire Risk

Regarding fire risk, as evidenced by Figure 14 (left panels), most areas show increases in the number of days with extreme fire risk of the order of 10 days (Prespes, Vikos-Aoos, Pindos, Olympos, Parnassos, Sounio, White Mountains). Substantial increases of approximately 15 days or more will be evident in Iti and Parnitha whereas Ainos in Cephalonia has negligible changes (5 days increase) in fire risk occurrence. The risk for forest fires is intensified by lack of rain and occurrence of long dry periods therefore, we examined the changes in the length of dry spells. As shown in Figure 14 (right panels), the high mountain parks in the interior of the country, such as Olympos, Iti, Vikos-Aoos, Pindos reveal small increases of about 7 days. In the other parks (Parnitha, Prespes, Parnassos, Ainos, White Mountains), the increases are more significant and the dry spell length increase by 15 days or Figure 14: Changes in the number of days with extreme fire risk (left panels) and more. Sounio shows a 7-day increase. changes in the maximum length of dry spells (right panels) between 2021-2050 and

1961-1990 in selected regions in Greece.

Summary for forestry ( redredred : increase, blueblueblue : decrease)

Winter min temps ( oC) Summer max Winter precipita- Autumn precipita- Fire risk (days) Dry spell length temps ( oC) tion (%) tion (%) (days) Ainos 111 1.51.51.5 151515 --- 555 151515 Vikos-Aoos 1.31.31.3 222 --- 101010 101010 777 Pindos 1.31.31.3 222 --- 101010 101010 777 Olympos 1.31.31.3 222 151515 151515 101010 777 Iti 111 222 101010 151515 151515 777 Parnassos 1.31.31.3 1.51.51.5 101010 151515 101010 151515 Parnitha 111 1.51.51.5 101010 151515 151515 151515 Sounio 111 111 101010 151515 101010 777 Prespes 1.31.31.3 222 151515 151515 101010 151515 White Mountains 111 1.51.51.5 151515 101010 101010 151515

Page 11 Conclusions

This study presented future projections of potential climate sum of 40 additional ‘tropical’ nights. In coastal regions, such change impacts. In the near future, i.e. the period 20212050, warm conditions in combination with high levels of relative climate conditions are expected to deteriorate compared to the humidity can result in uncomfortable conditions for foreigners reference period (19611990) conditions. and the local people.

Climate change is expected to result in warmer temperatures Regarding agriculture, the duration of dry days is expected to in urban areas which are translated into more days with maxi increase in most of the studied regions. In Evoia and other mum temperature above 35 oC and night temperatures exceed subregions in the northern part of the country, at least 20 ad ing the 20 oC. In some cases, flash floods events are expected ditional dry days tend to occur every year in the period 2021 to become more frequent. Unpleasant high temperature and 2050. The changes in the number of days with fire risk, is also relative humidity combined with high levels of aerosol pollu an important parameter for agricultural areas with trees (such tion of the atmosphere, as well as the lack of green spaces will as olive, orange, peach trees). It became evident that fire risk increase the feeling of discomfort in the citizens of big cities. increases substantially everywhere. The most considerable For instance, Thessaloniki, Patras, Lamia and Larissa are ex increases are estimated in the agricultural regions of Serres, pected to experience up to 20 more heatwave days, and almost Pella, Fthiotida and Larissa with up to 20 more days of fire an additional month with nighttime temperatures higher than risk per year. As far as precipitation is considered, winter pre 20 oC. The total annual precipitation is found to decrease in cipitation generally decreases with more substantial decreases Lamia, Larissa, Volos, Thessaloniki and Athens, however the of 15% occurring in the areas of Serres, Pella and Iraklion. In amount of a 3day precipitation event seems to increase by 10 contrast, an increase of autumn precipitation is projected in 20%. Hence, extreme rainfall episodes tend to occur more most agricultural areas. In particular, the areas of Larissa and frequently. Another impact of climate change in urban regions southern Evia will experience increases of up to 20%, whereas is the increase energy demand for cooling in summer and a Pella and Iraklion will see increases of around 15%. decrease demand for heating in winter. However, the winter and summer loads do not counterbalance each other, as the Devastating forest fires in Greece occurred in summer 2007, energy consumption required for cooling in summer is greatest with the loss of human lives, destruction of many villages and at specific days and times of the day. hundreds of square kilometres of forest burned. Changing cli mate conditions related to increased minimum temperatures o The tourism industry is a vital economic sector and occupies a (approximately 1.3 C) and decreased winter precipitation by dominant position in the Greek economy. Fully understanding 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires is intensi its importance, this study has investigated potential impacts in fied in the future. It is estimated that the number of days with tourist areas due to climate change. It was found that continen extreme fire risk will increase by 10 to 15 days per year. tal tourist areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In most of the studied regions 5 to 15 more days exceeding the 35 oC will occur every year. The largest increases are found in ‘summer’ days (>25 oC) and ‘tropical’ nights (>20 oC). The former can be considered as a positive impact as it may prolong the tourist period. The number of ‘tropical’ nights per year seems to substantially increase espe cially in the islands. For example, Rhodos and Chania expect a

Acknowledgements: The regional climate model dataset used in this work was produced by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged.