RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

CLASSIC CAR SPECIAL Luxury Investment Index Q1 2016

FERRARI SETS NEW CLASSIC CAR BUILDING A CLASSIC AUCTION RECORD PERFORMANCE IN FOCUS CAR COLLECTION WEALTH REPORT UPDATE 2 LUXURY INVESTMENT INDEX Q1 2016

Quality takes centre stage as luxury markets let off steam Classic cars set new records at auction, but buyers are becoming more discerning

Classic cars were once again the top But Mr Hatlapa says talk of “bursting performing luxury asset on an annual bubbles” is premature. “This is more about basis (see graphic page 3), according to the a market that has gone quiet. Good cars are latest figures from the Knight Frank Luxury still selling very well, but buyers are in less Investment Index (KFLII). of a hurry – the perception is that they now While the overall value of KFLII have time to track down what they want via a increased by just 5% in the 12 months to dealer rather than getting into a bidding war the end of March 2016 – the lowest annual at an auction.” increase since the first quarter of 2010 – This is evidenced by some recent relatively cars outperformed with a 17% surge. lacklustre auctions in the UK and Monaco Fine wine saw the second strongest where many cars remained unsold after growth, up 9%, with rare coins in third failing to meet their low estimates. position, rising 6%. James Knight, Group Motoring Director at The Bordeaux market is bouncing back auctioneer Bonhams, says he is not surprised: strongly after falling sharply between 2012 “A year or so ago, I said the market was letting and 2014, while north Italian wines are off steam for motor cars that had become very continuing to enjoy annual double-digit fashionable to acquire, but could be bought Of the 10 asset classes we growth, explains Nick Martin of Wine every weekend of the year. Owners, which compiles the Knight Frank “We still have many collectors wanting to include in the Knight Luxury Fine Wine Icons Index. buy these examples, but they naturally want Investment Index (KFLII), Coins remain in strong demand as an to feel they’re paying a fair market price. classic cars arguably capture investment asset, says Keith Heddle of They will find new homes if they’re priced the imagination more than Stanley Gibbons. A rare 1933 Pattern Penny accordingly - perhaps down 20% from the anything else. Not only has smashed the world auction record for a highs of a couple of years ago. Only ‘best-in- their performance in terms of copper or bronze coin when it went under class’ examples will knock on the door of the price over the past decade been the hammer with Baldwins for £72,000 previous high levels.” staggering, but the thrill of in May, while a 1839 Queen Victoria proof Mr Knight says there was interest from owning such visceral and often set sold for £504,000, double the previous 12 bidders willing to pay over £3m for a historic vehicles is hard to beat. record, last September. Jaguar C-Type in original condition that he Art and furniture were the biggest losers, auctioned in Monaco in May 2016. The car I’m therefore delighted that this dropping by 5% and 6%, respectively. sold for £5.75m. edition of KFLII focuses on these “We are seeing a natural correction, the However, the standout sale of the year amazing machines, including rates of growth weren’t sustainable,” says has to be our cover star, a gorgeous 1957 a host of fascinating facts and Viola Raikhel-Bolot of art advisor 1858 Ltd. Ferrari 335 S Scaglietti, which fetched figures from our data partner “However, stellar prices are still being paid €32.1m (£24.7m) when it was sold in Paris HAGI. I hope you enjoy reading for really important works of art fresh to the by Artcurial at the Retromobile Salon 2016 it as much as I did writing and market,” she adds. event this February. researching it. Recent figures suggest that the classic car Mr Hatlapa says the car’s virtues explain market has also decelerated over the shorter why Ferraris dominate the rankings of term, despite 2016 seeing the highest price, that rarefied group of cars – only about 60 ANDREW SHIRLEY in sterling and euro terms, ever achieved by in total – that have sold for over the The Wealth Report Editor a car sold at auction. equivalent of £5m (see graphic on page Since the beginning of the year, the 4). “Ferrari produced hand-made cars in HAGI Top Index, which tracks the value very small series that always had a strong of 50 of the world’s most desirable motor competition pedigree.” cars, has risen by just 1%. “May was the first But you don’t need a big cat or prancing month ever when the index didn’t move at stallion on the bonnet to achieve eye-watering all,” says HAGI founder Dietrich Hatlapa. prices. At the same Artcurial sale, a rare “The market has been treading water since Citroen 2 CV Sahara fetched almost €192,000, the end of 2015,” he adds. way over its high estimate of €90,000. WEALTH REPORT UPDATE 3 LUXURY INVESTMENT INDEX Q1 2016

KFLII performance versus other asset classes (to Q1 2016) 10-year asset price volatility

FTSE 100 PCL* KFLII CARS GOLD Most 20 £ volatile 600

15 500 £

400 10 £ £

300 £

£ % Volatility 5 £ £ 200 £ £ £ £ £ £ Index (Q1 2006=100) (Q1 Index 100 0 Least volatile

0 Art Cars Gold PCL* Wine FTSE KFLII 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Coins Stamps Chinese Watches Coloured ceramics Furniture Jewellery Diamonds

*Knight Frank Prime Central London Residential Index Based on annual price points Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research

KFLII performance by asset class (to Q1 2016*)

COLOURED STAMPS JEWELLERY WATCHES KFLII COINS WINE CARS DIAMONDS 1% 4% 4% 5% 6% 9% 17% ANTIQUE ART CHINESE 1% 12 MONTHS FURNITURE -5% CERAMICS -6% -2%

CHINESE ART STAMPS COLOURED WATCHES WINE KFLII JEWELLERY COINS CARS ANTIQUE CERAMICS DIAMONDS 5 YEARS 16% 21% 32% 32% 50% 63% 73% 161% FURNITURE 12% 31% -22%

WATCHES STAMPS JEWELLERY COINS ART WINE ANTIQUE CHINESE COLOURED KFLII CARS

10 YEARS CERAMICS DIAMONDS FURNITURE 65% 133% 163% 189% 195% 206% 245% 467% 37% 129% -30%

*Except data for stamps and coins, which is updated annually. Coloured diamond data bi-annual until Q2 2014. Source: See back page for details of data suppliers 4 WEALTH REPORT UPDATE LUXURY INVESTMENT INDEX Q1 2016 OTHERS MERCEDES-BENZ BUGATTI JAGUAR MCLAREN ALFA ROMEO ASTON MARTIN BENTLEY Under the bonnet DUESENBERG FORD With the help of HAGI we look at the nuts and bolts of the classic car market PORSCHE

Top marques Endurance race £1,000,000 Number of cars sold at auction for over £5m (all time) Five-year price change by era* PEGASO Z102

300 1950/60s 300% 300 £1,000,000 PEGASO Z102 250 1970s 2 280% 4 2 OTHERS 250 MERCEDES-BENZ 1 1990s 67% BUGATTI 200 1980s 250% JAGUAR 1 £1,000,000 FERRARI 220% 33% MCLAREN 1 PEGASO Z102 OTHERS ALFA ROMEO 6 ASTON MARTIN 1 Modern rare Pre-war supercars BENTLEY 1 200% DUESENBERG 1 150 110% FORD 200 PORSCHE * Based on representative models 2 0 4 1 OTHERS with sub 1,000 production Source: HAGI £1,000,000 PEGASO Z102 100 Buyers Source: HAGI guide 150 Podium finish Affordable/ Annual price change by marque (12 months to May 2016) overlooked £1,000,000 classics by PEGASO Z102 price bracket £1,000,000 100 PEGASO Z102 +3% +11% % +16 £1,000,000 £1,000,000 up to £1,000,000 PEGASO Z102 Pegaso Z102 (51-58 Pegaso Z102 (51-58) £1,000,000 up to £500,000 PEGASO Z102 £500,000 Ferrari 365 GTC/4 (71-72) Ferrari 365 GTC/4 (71-72) £1,000,000 FERRARI £1.0m £1.0m £1.0m £1.0m up to £250,000 £250,000 Pegaso Z102 Pegaso Z102MERCEDES-BENZ Pegaso Z102 Pegaso Z102 Aston Martin DB2/4 (53-57) PEGASO Z102 Aston Martin DB2/4 (53-57) 1951-1958 1951-1958 1951-1958 1951-1958 £1,000,000 PEGASO Z102 up to £150,000 £150,000PORSCHE Facel Vega HK 500 (54-62) Source: HAGI Facel Vega HK 500 (54-62) up to £100,000 £1,000,000 Bristol 411 (69-76) PEGASO Z102 £100,000 £1,000,000 Chequered flag Bristol 411 (69-76) PEGASO Z102 % up to £50,000 Best selling model9 .sold71% at auction from 1024.5 of the key% collectors’ marques*5.62 Jensen Interceptor (66-76) £50,000 Jensen Interceptor (66-76) up to £25,000 MGB Roadster (62-80) £25,000 MGB Roadster (62-80) up to £10,000 Source: HAGI Mercedes-Benz SEC (81-91) FERRARI MERCEDES £10,000 Aston Martin Bentley 5.1 Ford Mercedes-BenzPorsche SEC (81-91) Alfa Romeo 5.9 1968 GT 40 £6.5m PORSCHE £9.4m Duesenberg 6.3 DB4 GT Zagato (1962) 956 Le Mans£10,000 winner (1982) £1.0m £1.0m £1.0m £1.0m Porsche 6.5 Mercedes-Benz SEC (81-91) Pegaso Z102 Pegaso Z102 Pegaso Z102 Pegaso Z102 Ferrari Ford 7.0 1982 Porsche 956 1951-1958 1951-1958 1951-1958 1951-1958 Jaguar 8.5 McLaren Le Mans race car Duesenberg £24.7m McLaren 8.8 £8.8m 335 Sport (1957) Aston Martin 9.4 £6.3m Mercedes-Benz 18.8 F1 LM (1998) Ferrari Ferrari 24.7 Model J (1931) £24.7m 1935 Alfa Romeo 1957 335 Sport 8C 35 Grand Prix Jaguar Mercedes-Benz Alfa Romeo £8.5m £18.8m £5.9m C-Type Lightweight (1953) W 196 Grand Prix (1953) 8C 35 Grand Prix (1935) £8.5M Ford 1929 Bentley £7.0m £5.1m GT 40 (1968) Source: HAGI £8.5M 4.5 litre Blower Birkin (1929) *Prices converted to sterling at exchange rate prevailing at time of sale

£7.0M 1998 McLaren 1931 Duesenberg F1 LM Model J £6.5M

£5.1M Mercedes-Benz £18.8m 1953 W 196 Grand Prix

£6.3M

0 5 10 15 20 25

0 5 10 15 20 25

0 5 WEALTH REPORT UPDATE LUXURY INVESTMENT INDEX Q1 2016

Driving passion Record-breaking auctions may dominate the classic car headlines, but you don’t need to spend millions to build a collection, as entrepreneur and enthusiast Sean Nutley explains to Andrew Shirley

Classic cars with investment potential come in all shapes and sizes, says collector Sean Nutley Cars from left to right: 1982 Jaguar XJS Coupe 5.3 V12, 1982 Series 3 88” Land Rover Station Wagon, 1971 Lancia Fulvia Saloon 1.3S

Andrew Shirley What inspired you drunken karaoke session in France. My cars because I love them. Definitely do to start collecting classic cars? biggest regret is actually not buying some research and cherry pick cars that something. I almost bought an Aston you think are undervalued or about to Sean Nutley Cars are in my blood. My Martin DB4 for £90,000 in 2007 – it’s one become more popular, but always buy dad is a coachbuilder who when I was of my favourite cars, in my mind even something that you want to drive and younger used to hand build new panels better than the DB5 – but my accountant for classic cars like Aston Martins that that will make you happy. I wouldn’t told me not to invest in classic cars. That needed repairing – with my brothers spend money I couldn’t afford to lose same DB4 is worth over £300,000 today. I’d spend hours watching him in his or rely on any increase in value to fund my pension. workshop. That was where the love affair AS Do you have a classic car began, but it really blossomed around 10 driving experience that stands out years ago. Having just sold a company and AS Which cars of more recent bought a modern Jaguar XKR, I walked as being really special? times do you think are going to into the Essex showroom of JD Classics SN It has to be when I took my dad turn into the classics of the future? near where I live. I was simply spellbound out in the XK120 after I’d just bought SN I think the Ferrari 348 is a hidden by the cars, they were just gorgeous and it. We belted it up the A12 and he was gem and the Jaguar XJ 220 should be up the level of restoration was amazing. grinning from ear to ear. Like many of his there with the Ferrari F40. The Ford GT generation he wasn’t an emotional man, (a reboot of the iconic Le Mans winning AS What cars do you have in your but later I found out he’d told a friend GT40 built between 2004 and 2006) will own collection? that it was the best experience of his life. also continue to rise in value. But you It was a car he’d have loved to own when SN I’ve owned all sorts, quite a few of don’t need to buy a supercar – Jaguars he was younger and I think that explains which I’ve sold. I had a Mark 2 Jaguar, and Mercedes from the late 1980s to early the motivation for a lot of collectors – an E-Type Roadster and a gorgeous 1954 1990s are in demand and the value of owning something they fell in love with Jaguar XK120, which for a time was the Lancia Delta Integrales is shooting up. when they were growing up. world’s fastest production car with a top Anything with some kind of heritage like speed of over 140 mph, I’ve got a Rolls VW Camper Vans, or any Italian car built AS What would be your advice to Royce 1976 Silver Shadow 1 and have just in the 1970s and still in one piece has got bought two Series 3 Land Rovers. But my anybody thinking of investing in to be worth buying. I would also look at favourite is a Jaguar XJ12 I bought from JD a classic car – should they even be early series Land Rovers now they have Classics – the previous owner had spent viewed as investments? stopped making the Defender. £150,000 restoring it and it looks stunning. SN I’ve definitely made money from Sean Nutley is CEO of Lumina Prime 8 buying and selling cars, and have been www.luminaprime8.co.uk AS Is there anything you regret lucky enough to turn my hobby into a buying? bit of a business. Cars also add diversity SN Not really. I even managed to make to an investment portfolio, but that’s a profit on a Renault 4 I bought after a not the reason I’ve done it. I collect GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing

Data digest Research The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index (KFLII) tracks the performance of a Andrew Shirley theoretical basket of selected collectable asset classes using existing third-party indices The Wealth Report Editor (see below). Each asset class is weighted to reflect its relative importance and value within +44 1234 720534 the basket. The third-party indices selected are widely used by the media and analysts to [email protected] track the performance of each asset class, but Knight Frank can take no responsibility for their accuracy or independence and methodological differences may affect like-for-like Media & Marketing comparisons. The index does not take into account any dealing, storage or management Jamie Obertelli costs. Methodological differences could impact like-for-like comparisons. +44 20 7861 1104 [email protected]

The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index INDEX SOURCES Index 12-month Five-year 10-year change change change change Art AMRD

Mar-06 100 Chinese ceramics AMRD Sep-06 105 Antique furniture AMRD Mar-07 115 15% Jewellery AMRD Sep-07 129 23% Watches AMRD Mar-08 151 32% Sep-08 166 28% Wine Wine Owners Mar-09 173 15% Classic cars Histori c Automobile Sep-09 164 -2% Group International Mar-10 166 -4% (HAGI) Sep-10 178 9% Stamps Stanley Gibbons Mar-11 193 16% 93% Coins Stanley Gibbons Sep-11 201 13% 92% Mar-12 211 10% 85% Coloured diamonds Fancy Color Research Sep-12 217 8% 68% Foundation Mar-13 226 7% 50% Please contact [email protected] Sep-13 241 11% 45% for more details of each index Mar-14 256 13% 48% Sep-14 263 9% 61% Mar-15 276 8% 66% Sep-15 291 10% 63% Mar-16 289 5% 50% 189%

Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including

Front cover: A 1957 Ferrari 335 Sport Scaglietti from the Pierre Bardinon collection. Auctioned by Artcurial Motor Cars developers, investors, funding organisations, in February 2016 for €32.1m ©Artcurial Photographe Christian Martin corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert Contacts and acknowledgements independent advice customised to their specific needs. HAGI www.historicautogroup.com; Stanley Gibbons www.stanleygibbons.com; Wine Owners www.wineowners.com; Fancy Color Research Foundation: www.fcresearch.org; AMRD www.artmarketresearch.com. AMRD also tracks the price movement of: sculpture, silver, porcelain, toys, carpets, clocks, photography, prints and many other collectibles.

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