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New Fuels, New Rules?

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New Fuels, New Rules? NEW FUELS, NEW RULES? Modelling Policies for the Uptake of Low Carbon Vehicles within an Ethical Framework Gillian Harrison Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as part of the Integrated PhD/MSc in Low Carbon Technologies The University of Leeds School of Process, Environmental and Materials Engineering October 2013 - i - The candidate confirms that the work submitted is her own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given within the thesis where reference has been made to the work of others. Chapter Four is based on work published in: Shepherd, S., Bonsall, P. & Harrison, G. 2012. Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study. Transport Policy. 20 (March 2012), pp.62- 74. DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.12.006 The candidate wrote the section ”Modelling Approaches”, reviewed the model set- up and ran the described tests outlined to ensure accuracy prior to submission to publication. In addition, the candidate contributed to interpretation and appropriate presentation of results as well as development of the discussion and conclusion in initial drafts of the paper, and responding to reviewer comments. All remaining work, including initial model development, calibration and testing, was carried out by Shepherd and Bonsall. Chapter Five is based on work published in: Harrison, G & Shepherd, S. In Print. An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles. Journal of Transportation Planning and Technology. DOI:10.1080/03081060.2013.844904 and Harrison, G & Shepherd, S. Forthcoming. Exploring the societal impacts of low carbon vehicle policies. Selected proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Transport Research. 15-18 July 2013, Rio de Janerio. The original work contained within these papers is all the candidate’s own work with guidance provided by Shepherd. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Gillian Harrison to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2013 The University of Leeds and Gillian Harrison - ii - Acknowledgements All work has been carried out by the candidate under the specific guidance of Professor Simon Shepherd and Dr Rob Lawlor as well as general guidance from Professors Chris Megone and Paul Williams. The development of ethical arguments of Chapter Three were discussed with Professor Stephen Gardiner of the University of Washington, Professor Bert van Wee of Delft University, and Drs Paul Timms, Caroline Mullen and Nikolas Themopoulous. Chapter 3B came about as a suggestion by Professor Steve Ison of Loughborough University, and advice on the development of this came from Dr Astrid Guehnmann. Permission for using the Case Study Two model was granted by the owners and further guidance was provided by their representative, Dr Jorg Wansart of Volkswagen group. Other thanks go to reviewers from Transport Policy, Journal of Transport Planning and Technology, Philosophy and Public Issues and the World Conference on Transport Research, and Dr Brian Hillam for proof-reading the thesis. In addition to publications, other papers forming this thesis were presented at various international and national conferences, workshops and reading groups at which invaluable feedback was received from audience members. Further support was provided by staff and members of the EPSRC funded Doctoral Training Centre in Low Carbon Technologies, with particular thanks to James MacKay and fellow members of Cohort One. On a more personal note, my never-ending thanks go to my family and friends, particularly my Grandparents who always encouraged me to be myself, my Mam for advice and support, my Daddy for listening and humour, the Ransoms for just being there, my Bradford family for putting up with me in all this, and Pinky for being a constant companion. I wouldn’t have made it through without you all in my life. - iii - Abstract This research recognises a conflict between climate change mitigation and a lock-in of carbon-intense lifestyles. The concern is that, in the short term, policies to aid the transition to Low Carbon Vehicles (LCVs) may bring about unacceptable impacts on those amongst the worst-off. The approach that is taken is interdisciplinary, and suggests a novel approach to policy appraisal through combining ethics with a system dynamic model. An ethical framework is established that claims coercive LCV policies are permitted due to the harms of climate change, but certain groups require protection from impacts on car ownership. This protection could be similar to policy in other sectors, such as tax exemptions for the worst-off. The framework also improves on current practise by offering a new perspective on the limitations of models in policy-making. Two model case studies examine LCV policies, focused on subsidies and market regulation of electric vehicles. The first is relatively simple and develops basic skills and understanding, but still gives policy insight and explores the sensitivity of results. A more complex second model is used to understand the policy impacts in more detail, and in relation to ethical concerns. Combining the findings of both models suggests that subsidies are only successful in reducing emissions under a failing market and although regulation is more successful it raises the cost of all vehicles, disproportionately impacting the poorest in society. Combining these policies will allow a more even distribution of burdens. From this, recommendations are made that suggest the policy-maker needs to ensure affordability, protect the vulnerable and distribute burdens. Finally, a framework for an improved approach to modelling and policy appraisal, which incorporates ethics, is proposed. Although the focus of this work is on LCVs, the fundamental approach is transferable to other areas of transport and energy use. - iv - Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................... ii Abstract ................................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................. iv List of Tables ....................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................... viii List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................. x 1 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ................................................................ 1 1.1 Background to Climate Change ............................................................. 2 1.2 Scope and Limitations of the Research .................................................. 8 1.3 Research Objectives ............................................................................ 12 1.4 Learning Objectives ............................................................................. 12 1.5 Research Focus and Originality ........................................................... 13 1.6 Methodology ........................................................................................ 13 2 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................... 19 PART A: TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELS ......................................................... 20 2A.1 Overview ............................................................................................. 20 2A.2 The Internal Combustion Engine .......................................................... 21 2A.3 The Electric Motor ............................................................................... 27 2A.4 Hybrid Electric Vehicles ...................................................................... 31 2A.5 Other Technologies ............................................................................. 33 2A.6 Comparative Emissions ...................................................................... 33 2A.7 Abatement Costs ................................................................................ 38 2A.8 Conclusion and Research Focus ........................................................ 39 PART B: POLICIES ........................................................................................ 43 2B.1 Overview ............................................................................................. 43 2B.2 Governance ........................................................................................ 43 2B.3 Regulations, Policies and Strategies ................................................... 47 2B.4 Evidence-based Studies ..................................................................... 56 2B.5 Conclusion and Research Focus ........................................................ 61 PART C: LCV UPTAKE MODELLING ............................................................. 66 2C.1 Overview ............................................................................................. 66 2C.2
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