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After the Iran Deal Challenges Face Implementation of Iranian Nuclear Deal

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After the Iran Deal Challenges Face Implementation of Iranian Nuclear Deal 14 August 14, 2015 News & Analysis After the Iran deal Challenges face implementation of Iranian nuclear deal Riad Kahwaji war that could torpedo the nuclear differences with deal. “If Iran hopes to normalise re- Saudi Arabia to Dubai lations with the United States and pave the way see it grow it will eventually have for de-escala- he Iran nuclear deal to make peace with Israel or at least tion of many might have been signed avoid clashing with it,” a former US conflicts in the and sealed but it is still official said. region that are some way from being Iran must comply with the re- caught up in the implemented and faces quirements included in the agree- cold war between Ta good number of challenges that ment that are related to clearing the two regional could kill the agreement in its early its records with the International powers. stages. Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and The Obama administration says According to Western and re- cooperating with the organisation’s the nuclear deal has broken the ice gional experts who convened a inspectors. Failure to do so will with Iran and provided a window closed no-attribution meeting re- open windows to the opponents of of opportunity to revive the long cently to discuss the prospects for the détente with Iran to poison the severed relations between the two the survivability of the agreement, relations and break it up. parties that used to be strategic al- the nuclear deal faces the follow- Iran must carry out economic lies before the Islamic revolution Defining steps. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif ing potential obstacles that could reforms that will help it transform that toppled the shah in 1979. walks into a room at the United Nations building in Vienna, on stop it: into a true free market economy. “If Iran manages to reduce re- July 14, 2015 This will entail weakening the Is- gional tension and improves eco- The Iran nuclear deal lamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ nomic relations with the West, mary role in the Middle East and be- achieved with Iran. Only Tehran’s faces a good number (IRGC) grip over the country’s especially the United States, then yond. Many observers and analysts actions can help it secure the fu- economy to allow better prospects regardless of who is the next Amer- say if Iran successfully engages its ture of the nuclear agreement and of challenges that for business and trade relations ican president, relations between neighbours and opens its markets its effects on its relations with the could kill the with the West, which, in turn, will the two states will survive all ob- for a free market system then the West. agreement in its strengthen political ties and ensure stacles and likely be better,” one of nuclear deal will most likely affect Iran’s biggest challenge with re- early stages smooth implementation of the nu- the American analysts said. Tehran’s status positively. spect to its regional policy will be clear deal and its survival. However, if Iran maintains its adjusting the role of Hezbollah to An Israeli war with Hezbollah Almost all participants agreed Tehran will have to current policy of meddling in its reduce tension with Israel that has during US congressional debate of that, as long as sectarian tensions figure out neighbours’ affairs and exporting the strongest capability to impact the nuclear deal would most likely remain high in the Middle East, the the revolution, which is agitating Tehran’s relations with the West. result in more than two-thirds of nuclear deal will remain in jeop- Hezbollah’s future sectarian tensions, and the IRGC Hence Tehran will have to figure out votes being cast against the agree- ardy. role in Lebanon and continues to have the upper hand Hezbollah’s future role in Lebanon ment, which would render useless The sectarian war will worsen the region on all of the country’s affairs, then and the region as part of new poli- the veto power of President Barack relations between Iran and its Arab the nuclear deal will come under cies that will shape Iran’s future. Obama. Israel could provoke Hez- and Muslim neighbours, which will The conferees said the nuclear too strong a pressure to survive bollah into an action that could keep threat perceptions high in the deal has a two-year window to more than two to three years. Riad Kahwaji is founder and chief spark off such a war. However, volatile region and subsequently prove its value and for the interna- The next US administration will executive officer of the Institute most analysts expect Tehran to undermines stability and escalates tional community to feel its results need a proper regional environ- for Near East and Gulf Military press Hezbollah to exercise strong the arms race. They all stressed and subsequently fully embrace ment to enable it to sustain what- Analysis (INEGMA) based in Dubai self-restraint to avoid sliding into a the need for Tehran to resolve its Iran as a regional power with a pri- ever the current administration has and Beirut. Iran’s succession crisis overshadows nuclear pact Ali Alfoneh lah Khomeini, the founder of the of the Vienna agreement. Islamic Republic, died in 1989. More hard-line opponents of Ro- At one extreme of the political hani’s nuclear diplomacy are far Washington spectrum, former Iranian president from impressed by Rafsanjani’s an- Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, still a ecdotes about Khomeini and even he July 14th Vienna powerful figure within the regime, less impressed by the prospect of agreement between Iran recently declared his candidacy for Hassan Khomeini becoming the and global powers may, chairmanship of the Assembly of next leader of the Islamic Republic. at least for a time, contain Experts. In March, Rafsanjani’s bid for the crisis over the Islamic Rafsanjani, who is President Has- chairmanship of the Assembly of TRepublic’s nuclear programme but san Rohani’s political mentor, has Experts was frustrated, and Mo- an impending succession battle not only emerged as the most im- hammad Yazdi, a hard-line aya- in Tehran is casting long shadows portant public defender of the gov- tollah and another former judici- over the landmark deal that curbs ernment’s nuclear diplomacy and ary chief, was elected chairman, Iran’s nuclear capabilities. the Vienna agreement, he has also defeating Rafsanjani by a ratio of In the absence of a designated become a vocal proponent of nor- roughly two-to-one. successor to the ailing Supreme malising relations with the United Yazdi, who has been consistently Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, States, for decades a political her- critical of the nuclear negotiations, who reportedly suffers from pros- esy. is also among the leading candi- tate cancer, the nuclear agreement These initiatives, Rafsanjani ar- dates to replace Khamenei as su- is already contentious among rival gues, are in full concordance with preme leader. factions within the Tehran regime. Khomeini’s wishes. According to On the margins of the assembly Each faction is struggling to pre- Rafsanjani, Khomeini was a prag- drama, opponents of Rafsanjani, pare for the post-Khamenei era matist at heart who chose expedi- Rohani and Hassan Khomeini are and nowhere is that struggle more ency over ideology when accepting heavily represented within the Is- visible than in the prelude to the the ceasefire agreement that ended lamic Revolutionary Guards Corps February 16, 2016, election to the the 1980-88 war with Iraq. Rafsan- (IRGC), the dominant military force 86-member Assembly of Experts, jani also claims that Khomeini, in in Iran that wields great economic or Majles-e Khobregan-e Rahbari, private conversations with him and clout through its vast business em- one of the key institutions in the other witnesses — who all happen pire. Islamic Republic. to be dead — favoured abandon- These powerful elements have ing the regime’s iconic “Death to warned Rohani against selling out The nuclear America” rhetoric . “the achievements of the Islamic From the same camp there is revolution”. In more direct attacks, agreement is already much speculation about the poten- the IRGC accused Rafsanjani of contentious among tial candidacy of Hassan Khomeini, “claiming to be a revolutionary and rival factions within the ayatollah’s grandson, for the a follower of the imam but tries to Assembly of Experts. The young halt the Islamic revolution”. the Tehran regime Khomeini, who has more than The outcome of the overall strug- once praised the government’s nu- gle for power within the regime, Constitutionally charged with clear negotiations with the US-led both inside and outside the Assem- electing the supreme leader, the world powers, not only enjoys the bly of Experts, will influence the next Khobregan will have to select support of Rafsanjani and Rohani selection of Khamenei’s successor. Key contender. Iran’s former judiciary chief and current the successor to the 76-year-old to run for the assembly but also It may also influence Iran’s ability chairman of the Assembly of Experts, Mohammad Yazdi, in Khamenei, most observers say. seems to be the duo’s candidate as to honour any agreement the US- Tehran, in March 2015. But the nuclear agreement is also Khamenei’s successor. led global powers reach with the emerging as a central debate among Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi current leadership in Tehran. current members of the assembly. is another potential candidate to over-represented in the Islamic Re- jani, the current head of the judici- Behind the scenes, the major succeed Khamenei. Shahroudi, a public’s intelligence and security ary who was also born in Iraq, may Ali Alfoneh is a specialist on Iran power brokers — whether they former judiciary chief, was born apparatuses.
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