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After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East

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After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East ISSUE BRIEF After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East JULY 2019 ABBAS KADHIM AND BARBARA SLAVIN Introduction Successions to key figures in Iraq and Iran will shape and shake the Middle East. In Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani—a source of emulation and religious devotion (marja’ al-taqlid) for a majority of the world’s nearly two hun- dred million Shia Muslims—turns eighty-nine in August. Next door in Iran, meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic for the past three decades, has just marked his eighti- eth birthday and thirtieth year in that office. The processes for choosing successors to these two men are very dif- The Atlantic Council’s Iraq ferent. But, the order in which those successions occur, as well as the in- Initiative addresses the current dividuals chosen, will have a major impact on religion and politics in the security challenges Iraq faces as region and beyond. The successions will help determine how indepen- well as identifies policies that will unlock Iraq’s potential to develop dent Iraq will be, whether Iran finally succeeds in exporting its unique the drivers of any successful soci- system of government, how aggressively Iran develops its nuclear pro- ety: inclusive politics, economic gram, and the nature of both countries’ relations, or lack thereof, with development, and a vibrant civil the United States. society. Why succession matters The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative aims to promote While the supreme leader is, by definition, the most powerful figure in US-Iran engagement and seeks to Iran, he is not the sole decider. Major decisions require hard bargaining promote a deeper understanding among factions and power centers, and even the Islamic Revolutionary of Iran to inform US policymakers Guard Corps (IRGC) is not a monolith. In general, however, Khamenei and citizens, as they consider and formulate new approaches to the has leaned right in both foreign and domestic policy, supporting Iran’s Islamic Republic. opportunistic expansion of influence in the region and repressing dem- ocratic aspirations at home. He did show what he called “heroic flex- ISSUE BRIEF After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meet with Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al- Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, March 13, 2019. Source: Sistani.org http://www.sistani.org/english/archive/26259/ ibility” in approving the negotiations with the West cratic front man. On the other hand, a more pragmatic that led to the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint or liberal successor would likely return to compliance Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but has felt with the deal, and might be more willing to try build- vindicated in his distrust of the United States since the ing upon it should the United States change its maxi- election of President Donald Trump and the US with- mum-pressure approach.1 drawal from the deal. Given the current situation, a Khamenei-like figure is For more than a year, Iran remained in compliance more likely in the immediate future if the leader dies with the JCPOA. However, it has now begun to breach while tensions continue to mount with the United the limits set in the deal out of frustration at the US- States. As Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, an associ- imposed oil embargo and the failure of Europe to find ate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M sufficient means of bypassing sanctions. A more hard- University, put it, “Conservatives have not been so con- line successor could take an even more confrontational fident in decades,” reflecting Iran’s increased regional policy toward the United States and Iran’s regional ad- influence and the unremitting hostility of the United versaries, especially if Iran’s threat perceptions from States.2 those quarters escalate. There is even the possibility of a coup if the regime’s survival is at stake, although Meanwhile, there is an equally important question the IRGC is more likely to opt for a continuation of its of succession in Iraq. Although Sistani has no politi- current privileged status as the power behind a theo- cal role in the Iraqi constitution, his de facto authority 1 Collin Brown, Jose Drowne, Christopher Fix, Jonathan Gillespie, Christopher Petersen, and Abdullah Qayomi, “Iran After Khamenei: A Framework for Succession,” Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, April 27, 2017. 2 Interview with Barbara Slavin, March 14, 2019. 2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL ISSUE BRIEF After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) meets with Sadegh Larijani (left), Ali Larijani, Hassan Rouhani, and Ebrahim Raisi. Source: still image from manoto.news https://www.manoto.news/news/u1oljx/news33973 and impact on Iraqi politics are paramount. What has Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). In spite of a made this authority a force for good, and limited it, is complicated system of loyalties that extend from do- the grand ayatollah’s self-restraint. Since 2003, he vol- mestic affiliations to foreign entanglements, the PMF untarily confined his interference to the most conse- derives its legitimacy from Sistani, who also serves as quential circumstances. Additionally, Sistani remained the only effective check on its conduct. Sistani’s ab- supportive of the Iraqi democratization process and sence will dismantle the framework that binds these the project of establishing a civil state in Iraq, based essentially independent units and unleash their other on the largely secular 2005 constitution and existing respective loyalties, making it extremely difficult for body of laws. A likeminded successor would ensure the the Iraqi government to keep them under control or di- continuation of the current trajectory of Iraqi politics rect their future activities for the good of the country— and prevent unexpected, and unwelcome, shocks to much less restructure them under the 2016 Popular Iraq’s fragile political conditions. Any shift in this influ- Mobilization Forces Law—a process Prime Minister Adil ence from an ideologically divergent successor would Abdul-Mahdi just started to implement.3 take the country on a rough political roller coaster. The chronology of succession in Iran and Iraq is an- Sistani’s succession also matters a great deal because other important matter. The passing of either leader he has established a wide network of loyalties that will leave a vacuum that may lead to a dramatic change will not easily transfer to a successor. One important in the current authority equilibrium. Given the nature component of this network is the politically and mili- of succession in each case—and the different attitudes tarily controversial voluntary force also known as the of the two leaders—it seems that if Sistani passes first, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which came into Iraq will have a greater challenge in the post-Sistani being after his historic 2014 fatwa (binding religious era than Iran will if Khamenei passes first. In the words edict) of defensive jihad against the self-designated of one influential cleric in Najaf, “If Sistani dies first, we 3 Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi issued E.O. no. 237 on June 30, 2019, to start the implementation of the PMF Law. ATLANTIC COUNCIL 3 ISSUE BRIEF After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East may have to gather our belongings and relocate from basic understanding of constitutionalism. The group Najaf.”4 He was referring to the eventual Iranian micro- members were more informed by their ethnic and sec- management of Najaf’s intellectual environment, which tarian partisanship than any measure of statesmanship. is currently curbed by the presence of Sistani. Thanks to Sistani’s tolerance and respect for the freedom of In terms of social relations, Sistani deserves great thought and debate, Najaf, as a religious center, is wit- credit for preventing Iraq from descending into a full- nessing the most tolerant era in its entire history. scale civil war, through his relentless efforts reining in the Shia from initiating sectarian violence or retaliat- ing against strong provocations, like the demolition of Grand Ayatollah Sistani: Role and likely the Samarra shrine.7 However, Sistani’s most memora- successors ble role will be his historic fatwa calling on all Iraqis to join the armed forces and fight ISIS, which captured Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has been the most influen- Mosul on June 10, 2014, expanded within a few days to tial leader in Iraq since the toppling of Saddam Hussein control approximately one-third of Iraqi territory, and in 2003. Although he is an Iranian national, his lengthy posed the worst existential threat to Iraq in its modern residence in Iraq—he has resided in Najaf continuously history. Seeing the Iraqi military collapse and the gov- since 1951—and position as the highest Marja’ in the ernment paralyzed, with no serious prospects of help Najaf seminary (the Hawza) granted him legitimacy from the international community, Sistani issued a rare in assuming a central role in Iraqi public affairs.5 His fatwa of defensive jihad, the likes of which a Shia aya- style of limited interference in the political process and tollah had not declared in a century.8 Tens of thousands his support for a civil, democratic, and non-theocratic responded to the fatwa and fought against ISIS, while state adds more legitimacy to his role. His views on Iraq’s armed forces regrouped and regained their com- Iraqi affairs are recognized and respected by Iraqis, as bat readiness and an international coalition was built to well as throughout the international community.6 He is assist these efforts.
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