ARTICLE .13 Macrohistory and City Futures

Phillip Daffara University of the Sunshine Coast Australia

Abstract Where our cities are headed is a question being investigated globally by many stakeholders of our urban futures. This piece examines the possible, probable and plausible futures of the city, and what these may look like. The method used to extrapolate these futures is macrohistorical analysis. Positioning the current state of our globalised cities within different models of cultural/historical change gives us the grand patterns for the future of the city. The conclusion shows the ways in which the city is a tangible cultural product of civilisation and how the city can be positively used as a catalyst towards the development a planetary human civilisation.

Introduction Khaldun, Arnold Toynbee, Oswald Spengler, and James Lovelock. How do cities, impacted by the current context of The first task is to identify links between the key tumultuous upheaval, manage the change process? The themes of macrohistorian X and macrohistorian Y. traditional tools of strategic and urban planning seem What are the commonalities amongst the different blunt in the face of the combined challenges of popula- macrohistorical perspectives about the city? Within the tion growth or movement from rural to urban areas, the twelve models, three grand patterns can be discerned - cost of infrastructure, pollution, and meeting basic linear, cyclic, and spiral macro-histories. Linear models needs for water, food, housing and energy. Are there of historical processes depict critical changes as irre- deeper patterns or synergies that may be used to make versible and evolution as progressive. There is a distinct wiser decisions about creating better urban futures? starting point, and an undeviating path forward. Cyclical This piece explores these synergies within the city, models assert that history follows a rise and fall, or examining the macrohistorical models of thirteen expansion and contraction, pattern; there is repetition thinkers and applying them to the city as a cultural unit. of particular patterns of events. Spiral models suggest The twelve perspectives they developed were chosen that history folds back on itself: there is progress in for their diversity and for the contribution they make to some areas and cycles in others. (Inayatullah 2002: 172) the field of cultural change. They are Augustinus In this spiral conception, historical processes are both Aurelius, Nikolai Kardashev and Freeman Dyson, Pierre linear and cyclical, just as light exhibits both particle and Teilhard de Chardin, Karl Marx, Adam Smith, Riane wave properties through different frameworks or exper- Eisler, Pitirim Sorokin, Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, Ibn iments.

Journal of Futures Studies, August 2004, 9(1): 13 - 30 Journal of Futures Studies

existed as corruptible beings - separate from purity. God and the eternal soul are incorrupt- CIVILISATION ible beings. When things are in perfect harmo- ny, the body is controlled by the soul, which is SELF controlled by God. Human time has a beginning and an end with history in-between, given by CITY God for redemption through Christ. The river of life flowing towards an ocean of eternity MACRO-HISTORY becomes a powerful metaphor for Augustine's linear macrohistory. For Augustine, however, it is God's macrohistory or plan that he is Figure 1: Holarchy of Habitation expounding. Human existence and history will The city will be used as the cultural unit of end after the seventh age - with Christ's millen- analysis for civilisation. This means that the city nial reign on Earth with the New Testament as a holon (Koestler 1967), or basic unit of Church from New Jerusalem - when Satan's final organization in biological and social systems, rebellion is crushed and the Day of Universal cannot exist without civilisation but civilisation resurrection and Judgement begins. can exist without the city. Figure 1 depicts this The implications for the future of the city relationship. First, each macrohistorian will be through Augustine's macrohistory are clear: all presented with their model and the model's cities will be modelled on the sacred archetype. implications for the city described. From this The City of God is a recurring western meme context mapping, I then create a discourse and archetype for the sacred city or utopian between the various models, in search of com- ideal. The New Jerusalem is powered by spiritu- monalities, and six focus areas or dimensions of al/cosmic energy; ruled by Christ, it is a holy the city are identified. How these dimensions theocracy, administered by the just servant interact with each other within the city creates church, dispensing health, wellbeing and a cultural synergies or contradictions. I conclude divine economy. Beyond the city walls the Earth that a multi-dimensional approach is the only is renewed and made whole. During Christ's effective way to develop policies for urban millennial Reign, the Church serves as cultural transformation. change agent, co-creating and ministering with- in the healing City of God. This Christian city image has endured for nearly two thousand Linear Models years and still influences those who believe that humanity needs a benevolent hierarchy to Augustinus Aurelius impose order within chaos. Much of western Christian theology (theo- ry of knowledge and reality) has been influ- Nikolai Kardashev and Freeman Dyson enced by the metaphysics of Augustine. (The Astrophysicists Nickolai Kardashev and City of God, a compilation of 22 books pub- Freeman Dyson have proposed types of civilisa- lished between A.D. 412 - 427) His interpreta- tions based on energy demand and source. tions of platonic philosophy shaped medieval Such a model propounds a mathematical linear western cosmology and the work of Thomas progression of continued growth, driven by the Aquinas. Reality for Augustine has three planes civilisation's science and technology energy of being: body, soul and God; and three cate- needs. For Kardashev and Dyson there are only gories of things: matter, living entities and con- three energy sources, Planet, Star and Galaxy, scious living beings capable of knowledge. and four types (or progressive stages) of civilisa- Humanity began at the moment of Adam and tion: the first is powered by a planet's Eve's deceiving (failure) by the serpent in the exhaustible fossil fuels (Type 0); the second 14 Garden of Eden. Henceforward, humans have relies on a global network of the planet's renew- Macrohistory and City Futures

able sources (Type 1); the third taps into the increasing entropy (disorder) within his model, planet's Star more directly (Type 2); and the final and that at times the socialisation process (noo- taps into the cosmic energy of a galaxy (Type 3). genesis) is counter-evolutionary. When this hap- The quantum physicist Michio Kaku (1998) pens, society succumbs to entropy, individual- argues that Kardashev and Dyson's evolutionary ism and depersonalisation, and falls away from model of civilisations serves as a model to our the spiritual. own thinking about the evolution of our planet The implications for the city of this posi- for the next several thousand years. tion are that: The implication for human civilisation and 1. City design transforms to allow, pro- the city of this perspective is that we are still mote and reflect the spiritual develop- deeply embedded at the Type 0 civilisational ment of all citizens. The sacred places stage. Our cities and their transportation sys- within the city need to be redefined. tems are predominately powered by non- 2. The City as an organisation develops a renewable fossil fuels or toxic nuclear fission. collective and reflective consciousness - The issue here is that the present "modern plu- City Noosphere. (The city is alive and tocracy" - divided by nation states and powered mindful.) by toxic non-renewable energy sources (fossil 3. The City becomes more complex, fuel and nuclear) - needs, in the next stage, to organised, and will tend to synthesise transform to "planetary democracy" powered by and converge in space and energy. a global network of shared renewable energy (More multi-layered, dense and com- sources. Drivers for such change are the sustain- pact.) ability ethics of "energy futures", and planetary 4. When the city reaches its point of maxi- governance, equitable development and sur- mum synthesis, it attains a new, differ- vival of the human species. This was ent level and organisation of its whole- Buckminster Fuller's message thirty years ago. ness. (1969) 5. If the city acts incongruently with spiri- Transformation from a Type 0 to a Type I tual evolution, it will tend toward civilisation is critical if we are to avoid the risk of entropy, individualism, depersonalisa- annihilation or ecological collapse. Likewise, tion and self-extinction. such transformations are required at the city level. Regarding urban form alone, our sprawl- Karl Marx ing energy and resource consuming cities need Marx's macrohistory is focussed on techno- to become more compact, and energy and economic stages. It is based on the relationship resource efficient. of four variables in a linear, one way causal flow: from the means of production (technical struc- Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ture), to determining the mode of production Teilhard de Chardin - a Jesuit Priest educat- (economic structure), to determining the super- ed in the dualistic philosophy of Thomas structure (social and political systems), and Aquinas (who in turn was influenced by thence to determining the social consciousness Augustine) - sought a synthesis between matter (spiritual process of life). This model has proven and spirit. Kardashev's macrohistory aligns with to be too rigid and problematic, as history as Teilhard de Chardin's (1961), agreeing that the shown. (Galtung & Inayatullah 1997: 64 - 65) evolutionary process of civilisation tends But, what can be learnt from this model if it is towards greater socialisation, complexification reframed as holons within a holarchy, instead of (synthesis) and centricity. For both, evolution is as a linear hierarchy - that is, if it is reworked to eternal, but Teilhard de Chardin believes that maintain the four variables while allowing evolution is also tending towards the spirit - greater emergence and inter-relational flow towards pure radial energy (love). He recognises between them? The lesson for the city is that to the continual tension of the universe towards transform the superstructure (civic, political and 15 Journal of Futures Studies

cultural systems), intervention would be Knowledge Economy - Creative/ required at all levels - at the technical, econom- Learning City. ic, and spiritual. A multi-dimensional approach There are two key inferences for the city is fundamental in this age of chaos theory and from Smith's work. Firstly, there is an implicit systems thinking. Marx is concerned about the warning that the city should be designed to reproducibility of social/political systems. (How combine self-love with love for others - the does it reproduce itself without exploitation?) unity of the material and the spiritual. This concept is similar to today's struggle for Consequently, the city is the social laboratory sustainability. How will cities reproduce the for human civilisation where the dialectic ten- quality of life expected or demanded by its citi- sion between self-love and love for others is zens? How will they be sustainable? tested and manifested. Secondly, some western cities are in different states within Smith's age of Adam Smith commerce. Some are in decline (e.g., Detroit, Smith's macrohistory is a linear rise and fall USA - Industrial City) whilst others are in ascen- model. Movement through the stages (moral dency. (Bilbao, Spain - Industrial City transform- progress) is through realising the greatest pros- ing into Creative City) perity and liberty for individuals within a socie- ty. This moral progress is driven by the unity of Cyclic Models self-love and love for others as the motivation of a society's individuals. If this motivation exists, Pitirim Sorokin the society is likely to ascend towards the next Sorokin's Social and Cultural Dynamics developmental stage. Smith deduced that the ([1957] 1985, written between 1913 and 1941) moral goal of a society was a genuine economy provides a macrohistory based on the "mentali- of exchange and common welfare for all citi- ty" of the culture. These cultural paradigms do zens. He also deduced the dangers and stagna- not carry geo-historically identifiable names; tion of advanced capitalism, where self-love rather they are typologies of how cultures per- dominates love for others, leading to a decline ceive the nature of reality. He categorises cul- of morality and of material conditions for the tures as being predominately: majority of society. Smith's (1776) utmost con- Ideational (spiritual) - nature of reality cerns are with the material and spiritual, and concerned with ideas (meta-empirical or their dynamic balance and tension within socie- transcendental). ty, and are reiterated by Sorokin (1957) who Sensate (materialistic) - nature of reality developed his cyclic macrohistory based on the concerned with matter and satisfying same dialectic between the material and spiritu- the senses. Idealistic (eclectic/integrated) - nature of al. reality concerned with or balanced by Smith's model reflects the actual history of both matter and ideas. the development of the western city. His macro- historical stages, and their implications for the city are: 1. Age of nomadic hunters - city as shelter. 2. Age of pasturage - city as storehouse. 3. Age of Agriculture - Imperial City. 4. Age of Commerce: Maritime Trade - Renaissance City. Industrial Age - Industrial City. Trajectories for cities after the industrial phase of development, but still within his Age of Commerce are: 16 Information Age - Informational City. Figure 2: Sorokin's Macrohistory Macrohistory and City Futures

Sorokin (1957) argues that socio-cultural Christian/western architecture with the cultural change is cyclic, in the form of a pendulum, swing from Ideational to Sensate will be used. swinging (as illustrated in Figure 2) from As shown in Table 1, Sorokin's macrohisto- Ideational through Idealistic to Sensate, and ry fits independent historical accounts of the back to Ideational. His theory, which describes evolution of the city within occidental civilisa- seven socio-cultural mentalities and the dynam- tion, based on the work of Henri Pirenne (1925), ics of change, will not be reiterated here. V. Gordon Childe (1950), H. D. F. Kitto (1951), However, Sorokin's evidence correlating the and M. Savage and A. Warde (1993). styles of Greco-Roman architecture and

Table 1: Evolution of Occidental Cities align with Sorokin's Macrohistory (super rhythm) of Cultural Paradigms

17 Journal of Futures Studies

Interpreted using Sorokin's model, present western culture is Sensate. This premise is based on our empirical reality, a reality that is underpinned by scientific reductionist observa- tion and social values of wealth, comfort and material resource consumption to benefit our utilitarian morality. The meta-architecture of the city that has emerged during the modernist twentieth century is similarly reductionist, sprawling, utilitarian and resource consumptive. The modern rationalistic city and the post-mod- ern eclectic city both serve the cosmology of our time - the gratification of Spengler's money spirit. Figure 3: Khaldun's Model The major implication of this model for The rise and fall of asabiya drives cultural city futures is that the city will continue along change within Khaldun's model. Primitivism the trend towards a hyper-Sensate culture with (tribal survival in the wilderness) provides the cities making a grab for limited global environmental context in which asabiya can resources. Before ecological collapse, those thrive and new moral leaders emerge, whilst cities that will survive do so by facilitating a ris- Civilisation (leisure and narcissistic individual- ing Ideational (spiritual) culture that will, in turn, ism) provides the urban context for asabiya to transform the city's physical manifestation or fragment and morally decline. The cycle is typology. This rise or revolution may be already linked to four generations and their cultural apparent in in western societies, with the rise of capacity and memory for asabiya. The rise the "cultural creatives" (Ray & Anderson 2000), comes with the first generation, which exercises individuals seeking sustainable humanistic solu- the creative power to learn and leave a legacy. tions in life, with consequent impacts on their The second generation witnesses the efforts of consumer choices. Another current trend sup- the first and consolidates the legacy. The third porting Sorokin's cultural shift from the Sensate generation loses the capacity to innovate and towards the Ideational is the lifestyle "downsiz- relies on imitation and tradition, whilst the ing" phenomenon occurring in America and fourth generation has no cultural memory of Australia. the creative struggle of their forebears and of Ibn Khaldun the asabiya they nurtured and possessed. The original legacy is virtually spent by the succeed- Khaldun's macrohistory (1377) is a cyclic ing generations, and decline provides the con- rise and fall model. The causes of historical text for a new rising culture/generation. change are endogenous (internal) - what causes The implications of Khaldun's model for the rise, leads to the fall. The cycle follows a the city are that cities can expect decline, as the path of conquest, consolidation, blossoming, second generation, unlike the first, will be living off capital, waste and squandering, and unable to rise to the challenges of their time. decline; thence returning to conquest. Decline ends when outsiders take over the Khaldun's model, illustrated in Figure 3, has reigns of power and the cycle starts again. Can three pillars that provide the cultural dynamism: decline be arrested through social interven- 1. Primitivism - rural/nomadic culture; tions? Is community-visioning of the future the 2. Civilisation - city culture; and answer to creating asabiya within our cities - 3. Asabiya - literally, the fibre or sinew by the shared goal that binds a community togeth- which a group is held together. Asabiya binds er? One modern response - the Oregon com- people into effective groups. This is achieved munity visioning model - provides a tool to get 18 through struggle and social unity of purpose. Macrohistory and City Futures

ahead of the drivers of change affecting a com- ative minority then take control as the domi- munity and create a better future. However, nant minority to institutionalise the state and community visioning needs to become a way of keep the proletariat in check. Total dissolution life and governance for future generations to proceeds, as the proletariat resists the fossilised likewise create better futures - lest we forget state, and their only hope lies in the coming of a the asabiya that binds us. Saviour. For the city, the implication of Toynbee's Arnold Toynbee macrohistory is that the city must nurture a cul- Arnold Toynbee's A Study of History (1972) ture of the creative, learning community or else (written between 1934 and 1961), provides a suffer waves of decline, missed opportunity or macrohistory that is a cyclic rise and fall model; ecological overshoot and collapse. Sir Peter he argues that societies change, just as individu- Hall, renowned city planner and urban histori- als are born, mature, grow old, and die. an, claims that Charles Landry's book The Toynbee's model is similar to that of Khaldun; Creative City is a "truly millennial book and however, in Toynbee's macrohistory the cre- shows how modes of thinking can regenerate ative response to challenges comes from a cre- cities facing the challenge of survival." (Landry ative minority within the social system (renewal 2000) In that book, Landry argues that creativity from the internal proletariat), rather than from is the lifeblood of cities, and cities have one cru- nomadic outsiders (the external proletariat). As cial resource - their people - that affects their well, Toynbee's process of civilisation is more ability to adapt and survive, more so than loca- general and can be applied to either the rural or tion, natural resources and market access: urban contexts, whereas Khaldun's cyclic pro- Today many of the world's cities face periods of gression is from rural/nomadic to urban con- transition [and decline] largely brought about by texts. the vigour of renewed globalisation. These transi- Toynbee's genesis for a civilisation begins tions differ from region to region: in some areas, like Asia, cities are growing, while in others, such with the challenge and response cycle, in which as Europe, old industries are disappearing and the the creative minority perceives the challenge value added in cities is created less through what and generates an adequate and creative, nor is manufactured and more through intellectual merely ritualistic and routine, response. capital applied to products, processes and servic- Development of the civilisation is dependent on es. (Landry 2000: xiii) the continual application of the challenge and response cycle, and the enhancement of this to Oswald Spengler - The maturation and decay a challenge-response-mimesis cycle. Here, a of cultures mimetic majority freely imitates the responses. I Oswald Spengler's macrohistory, described believe this social mimesis is very similar to in his work, The Decline of the West (1926), is Innovation Diffusion theory developed by isomorphic with the life cycle of the individual, Everett Rogers (1962) in his book Diffusion of and in this respect is similar to Toynbee's posi- Innovations. The process of innovation diffusion tion. Where Spengler is different, however, is is how a new idea - usually originating from a that he is a cultural relativist, arguing that the visionary thinker or inventor - is adopted by true meaning of culture is gained by under- society. Galtung and Inayatullah (1997:124) standing its mystical soul - which is unique and state that similarities also exist with Tarde's has its own possibilities of self-expression. Laws of Imitation (1903). In Toynbee's view, for Spengler believed in many cultures, each with civilisation to avoid decline and move towards its own identity and path, each following a gen- greater unity and vitality, it must operate the eral four stage pattern of birth, growth, maturi- challenge-response-mimesis cycles all the time. ty, and death. These stages were also detailed If this cycle is arrested, then decline sets in, as pre-culture, early culture, late culture, and beginning with the proletariat withdrawing mass civilisation. The cultural life cycle begins their mimesis, and unity breaks down. The cre- with a metaphysical birth in time and space of 19 Journal of Futures Studies

the culture from the formless protosoul. The cultural mentalities. As a result of this cultural cultural soul takes form through the develop- expression through architecture, a city's spirit of ment of its cosmology - its central idea that place - or what Aldo Rossi (1982) defines as motivates the people. There are similarities locus - emerges. However, as the cultural life here to Khaldun's asibiya. Spengler's model is cycle continues towards mass civilisation, locus illustrated in Figure 4. - the city's spirit of place - degenerates. This pat- tern is evidenced in many cultures today as a postmodern, western international architecture supplants regional vernacular architecture in cities - for example in the rapid development of the S.E. Asian cities of Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Singapore, and Beijing. The result is sameness amongst the world cities and a loss of cultural diversity. Secondly, cities will mature and die, losing their "spirit" in the mass civilisation stage.

Spiral Models Riane Eisler Figure 4: Spengler's Model Eisler's model (Galtung & Inayatullah 1997: The purpose of culture is to actualise the 144) focuses on the dynamic interaction of two sum of its possibilities, its spirit or central idea movements: through its various systems such as language, 1. The tendency of social systems towards myths, art, sciences, technology, and states. The greater complexity; and life cycle anticipates growth to the late culture 2. The cultural shifts between two organi- stage and then a decline towards mass civilisa- sational forms or ways of relation: tion, meaning urbanisation dominated by the Dominator model - patriarchal social desire for money. Upon death the culture structure based on the ranking of reverts to protosoul. Spengler sought not an men over women in domination hier- archy. empirical social science for historical change, Partnership model - neither half of but rather levels of truth or insights into the humanity is ranked over the other metaphysical structure of historical humanity as within a generally more democratic artist or poet. The means of understanding that political and economic structure. culture is by revelation of the whole through The result of this multi-dimensional dynamism the parts, in this case through the systems that is a spiral model, where both linear and cyclic manifest the culture's cosmology. patterns are observable in history. The implications for city futures through The implications are readily seen in the the perspective of Spengler's macrohistory governance of our cities. City administrations or affect Identity and Spirit. Firstly, cities as a sys- local governments shift over time between the tem within a culture emerge with a unique dominator model and the partnership model, identity and architecture as they actualise the changing the way they relate to their citizens cultural spirit in time and geographic space. and how they develop and implement policy.1 Architecture is well understood as a system Meanwhile, the tension between these organi- through which a culture expresses its spirit, sational models grows as each continues to episteme and cosmology. Sorokin recognised develop and struggle for legitimacy within cul- this when in his work he used the development tures. Eisler (1987) also argues that the emer- of Greco-Roman and Christian architecture to gence of our species initiated the age of human 20 test the validity of his proposed super rhythm of coevolution or co-creation through our technol- Macrohistory and City Futures

ogy. This being the case, our cities - as the Situating the world at the end of the major instruments of our technical prowess - Vaeshya era in Sarkar's model, two implications are also fundamental habitats for this co cre- for the future of the city emerge. Firstly, in ation and coevolution. terms of its urban morphology, the Vaeshya city of our capitalist era has dominated the ecology Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar and its ideas (culture). As a result, the internal Sarkar's cyclic theory of cultural change urban contradictions that have trended does not rely on external variables or life condi- upwards - such as unsustainable habitats and tions. Rather, the mindset or collective psychol- lifestyles - will drive further change towards ogy of the cultural class (social group) is the Shudra city. This phase of development will source of their downfall within the system and focus on the needs and wellbeing of the city's drives the evolutionary cycle. The next cultural citizens, but subjugate them beneath the needs takeover seeks to address the past era's cultural and health of the local/global ecology (bios- exploitations. The flow of these dimensions is phere). Shudra city seeks to be the ecologically illustrated in Figure 5, and the nature of each sustainable city and its workers are likewise social cycle is summarised in Table 2. focussed on saving the environment, mimicking its bio-efficiencies and being led by a new social order and logic. This Shudra revolution rein- states equity and justice, but keeps the learning of the previous capitalist era. Secondly, in terms of a transformational leadership, the Sadvipra are needed to make this transition towards Shudra city, because the Shudra mind seeks to live in the material present and pursue pleasure. Sadvipra is the balanced and integrated leader, who moves society forward by creating innova- tion when the cyclical downward trend begins. James Lovelock Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis or bio-cybernet- Figure 5: Sarkar's Model ic universal system tendency/homeostasis (1979)

Table 2: The stages of the social cycle

21 Journal of Futures Studies

provides a cosmic model as context to under- phere cannot live without Gaia. stand the macrohistory of human civilisation The implication for the city of the Gaia upon the Earth. The Gaia hypothesis is that: hypothesis is that its future, being the future "Life maintains conditions favourable to the habitat of human culture and civilisation, cannot existence of life on Earth". Gaia theory is based be segregated from the future viability, health on planetary system dynamics, and suggests and maintenance of Earth's life-sustaining that the earth behaves functionally as a self-reg- homeostasis (Gaia). I propose that the norma- ulating single super-organism (Moughtin 1999: tive theory for city design and urban form 90) to maintain homeostasis. Homeostasis is a would be grounded in the same Gaian princi- state of constancy that organisms maintain ples of: when the environment around them is chang- Complexification of energy and matter; ing. Lovelock's planetary modelling strongly Synthesis of systems; suggests that the more variables in the cyber- Symbiotic relationships; netic system (species), the more robust and Self-regulation and bio-mimicry (or learn- viable the system becomes. This supports the ing) towards dynamic balance (home- ostasis). case for the protection of biodiversity to main- The resultant city form would be compact, tain the long-term stability of planetary self-reg- energy efficient, zero net waste and zero emis- ulation. Within the Gaian system, changes are sion, equitably accessible, and symbiotically one produced by internal (e.g., biological waste) and with the ecology. In the past, such visions - such external forces (e.g., solar radiation), and contra- as Poalo Soleri's (1969) concept of "arcology" - dictions to life that result from these forces tend were considered impractical: a city in the image to be resolved through the process of synthesis. of man. The Gaian imperative, however, now This Gaian system's tendency towards greater fundamentally challenges our modernist and complexity at the cosmic and geo-physiological neo-traditional forms of city design. City form in level is also used by various macrohistorians to the future, I believe, must follow function and understand the past, present and future of function will be reassessed to follow life. humanity. Teilhard de Chardin (1961), Toynbee (1971), Sarkar (1983) and Eisler (1987) all use the tendency towards new synthesis or greater Synergies between Macro Historical complexification to resolve contradictions with- Perspectives in social systems. Humanity as a species is part of the symbi- Macrohistories by nature are grand and otic relationships within Gaia; however, our diverse in their scope, time frames, and social technology has now become the major source unit of analysis. Galtung and Inayatullah (1997: of planetary change, disrupting the homeostasis 216) show that these diverse perspectives are or ecological balance. This factor makes it complementary, not contradictory. The intent imperative that human civilisation is considered of using different macrohistories is not to pre- in the context of planetary history, geo-physiol- dict the future, or literally apply the models to ogy and our relations with nature. Using the city as if each theory represented the whole Teilhard de Chardin's macrohistory, Wilber truth. Rather, my aim is to seek out the diverse (2001: 97-99) argues for an integrated approach implications that affect the city as a holon and where the physiosphere is nested within the part social unit through the diverse perspectives biosphere, which is nested within the noos- provided by macrohistorians. The commonali- phere, which is nested within the theosphere. ties that emerge around city futures through Gaia theory integrates the physiosphere and the these 12 perspectives (six linear, four cyclic and biosphere as a super-organism; however it is three spiral models) are mutually supportive still nested within the human noosphere (super- and robust. These common focus areas are: consciosness). This means that Gaia as a holon 1. The city collapse scenario; 22 can live without humans, but the human noos- 2. The sustainable city; Macrohistory and City Futures

3. The complex, compact, cybernetic city; unable to respond creatively to challenges that 4. City governance and its transformation; threaten the city. Complacency is the indicator 5. The humane and spiritual city; warning of a fall. 6. The emerging city noosphere; and 7. The renewable energy-powered and effi- cient city. The Sustainable City The sustainable city focus is common to The City Collapse Scenario Gaia theory, Marx, Sarkar, and Eisler. From the cosmic perspective of Gaia theory (Lovelock The linear macrohistorians, such as 1979), the city and its citizens need to maintain Augustine and Teilhard de Chardin, with their the Earth's homeostasis or dynamic balance. occidental worldview, and clear model of a Eisler (1987) and the partnership model of beginning and end, share Spengler's view of the organisation share this concept of stewardship life cycle: there is a time for decline and death. and oneness. Eisler also argues that human As such, a city as a social unit or culture can technology initiated the age of co-creation with expect the same. The reason for city collapse nature, but that, equally, it has the potential for from Augustine's perspective is that humanity is co-extinction. The driver for both is that the city imperfect and so too their products are corrupt- must be sustainable. For Marx (Marx & Engels ible. Ultimately, the great city of corruption - [1848] 1975), the sustainable city allows inter- symbolic Babylon - will be wiped away when generational reproducibility of culture without the City of God descends upon the Earth. For environmental, social (class) and economic Teilhard de Chardin, city collapse is probable exploitation. The city must provide the basic when the city acts incongruently with spiritual human needs of its population: food, housing, evolution. The city's citizens will tend toward health, and wellbeing. entropy, individualism, depersonalisation and My extrapolation of the Shudra city, from self-extinction. Likewise, Spengler saw the Sarkar's macrohistory, likewise focuses on the urbanisation of cultures at the mass civilisation needs of the workers (downtrodden mass), stage as a similar process of decline and dispirit- whilst ensuring that the ecological health of the ed peoples. From Marx's perspective, if a cultur- city's biosphere is maintained. Sustainability is a al system is unable to reproduce itself, it col- virtue from Sarkar's perspective, releasing socie- lapses. Marx's concept of reproducibility with ty from the capitalist era's exploitation of the minimal exploitation was a prototype of the entire system, a system where nature is heading Brundtland Commission's concept of sustain- towards collapse and the society as a whole is ability (1987): a city that is unsustainable will comprised of two great classes directly facing collapse or experience revolution. each other across a wealth divide: the bour- Cyclic macrohistorians such as Khaldun, geoisie and the proletariat (Marx & Engels 1975: Sorokin, and Toynbee also anticipate cultural 33). From Sarkar's perspective, the Vaeshya decline. The reason for city collapse in Khaldun's (Capitalist Bourgeoisie) and Shudra (Proletariat - model is the loss of asibiya or social purpose. Ksattriyan, and Vipran as they too serve the Here, a city can lose a competitive advantage in Vaeshya's pursuit of accumulation) collective our rapidly changing global world when it loses minds have nowhere to go except revolution. It sight of its vision or purpose. For Sorokin, city is not inevitable that this revolution has to be a collapse is inevitable when the dominant cultur- violent struggle; rather, it may be peaceful if it is al paradigm is materialistic and individualistic, defined as the sustainability revolution. Here, all and our nature of reality is concerned only of Sarkar's self-conscious varnas unite to trans- about matter. This narcissistic behaviour trends form the system and ultimately themselves towards chaos before renewal in the opposite towards the qualities of Sadvipra. The Sadvipra Ideational direction. For Toynbee, city collapse embodies a new type of synergistic leadership occurs when the cultural change agents are that champions sustainability. 23 Journal of Futures Studies

This sustainability revolution is observable low technology to high technology are universal today through the implementation of The in the long run. For Teilhard de Chardin, if the Natural Step programme (Robèrt 2002) by city acts congruently with evolution, the city states, cities or organisations, or the creation of becomes more complex and organised, and will Natural Capitalism (Hawken, Lovins & Lovins tend to synthesise and converge in space and 1999) to transform the current world's capitalist energy. When the city reaches its point of maxi- economic system. Natural Capitalism uses four mum synthesis, it attains a new different level principles to drive the transformation process: and organisation of its wholeness. In a practical (1) radically increase resource productivity; (2) sense it becomes more multi-layered, dense copy the way nature does business (bio-mimic- and compact. Urban sprawl is transformed or ry); (3) re-invest in natural capital (assets); and (4) abandoned for more energy-efficient organisa- ensure no net loss of human or natural capital. tional forms. Using biology as the analogy, I The major benefit from cities following the prin- liken our current sprawling cities to a simple ciples of Natural Capitalism would be that replicating virus, dependent upon its host and humanity's habitation would be brought into a at the same time killing it. The next phase of symbiotic relationship with Gaia. At a deeper development would liken cities to beneficial level, Sarkar argues for a spiritual ecology bacteria living within the host, contributing to where humanity is not put at the centre of all its overall health. political, economic and cultural discourses For Spengler, the advent of the city or (Inayatullah 2002: 28). Rather, humans are urbanisation was the stage of maturation for a among many inhabitants of Earth, a view consis- culture. Architecture is a system of culture, and tent with Gaia theory. The achievement of as such reflects that culture's spirit and central prama or dynamic balance between and within idea - collective dharma or purpose of being. the societal, ecological and personal dimen- Ideally, for Spengler, the architecture of a city sions is fundamental for Sarkar, and reframes provides cultural identity; however, as the the meaning of sustainability, yet is strikingly process of maturation continues towards mass similar to Lovelock's planetary homeostasis or civilisation, the unique vernacular architecture dynamic balance. tends towards mass production and global stan- dardisation. The result is a city devoid of its cul- tural heritage. Teilhard de Chardin's notion that The Complex, Compact, Cybernetic society likewise tends towards depersonalisa- City that Creates Identity tion and entropy corresponds with Spengler's decline, driven by the money spirit, and This focus area is common to Gaia theory, Sorokin's "Sensate" cultural paradigm. The alter- Spengler (from the cyclic change camp) and native to the sprawling urban form of sameness Teilhard de Chardin (from the linear change is synthesis of urban form. Design synthesis camp). The central idea that emerges for the may reverse the trend towards sameness and city is the process of complexification of urban re-create Rossi's "Locus" - the spirit of a place. form/design - maximising synthesis and bio- Cities, as they bio-mimic nature's (Gaia's) synthe- mimicry. sis of systems and complexification of energy The concept of complexification - the idea and matter, may likewise become identifiable, that social organisations tend towards greater beautiful, inspirational places and entities. complexity in their evolution - is not uncom- mon in social theory. Whether comparing the unilinear change path of Teilhard de Chardin's Transformation of the City and its model, the life cycle change path of Spengler's Governance model, or Gaia theory's biological evolutionary path, the progressions from smaller to larger, The focus of the transformation of the city 24 simpler to more complex, rural to urban, and is common to Sarkar, Marx, Eisler and Khaldun. Macrohistory and City Futures

The idea that becomes apparent is the need for Applied alongside Sarkar, asibiya provides the our cities to continually transform to create bet- shared city vision for the city's leaders (Sadvipra) ter urban futures, and that governance is a key across governments, business, NGOs and the driver for such transformation. Sarkar's model citizenry. Here, Eisler's organisational model emphasises the need for transformational lead- provides further insight as shifts occur between ership through the Sadvipra group mind. the dominator and partnership styles of civic Linking city leadership and governance with the and corporate governance. Within the multi- sustainability innovation provides the Sadvipra dimensional milieu that creates the city, part- with a new agenda. Here, sustainability innova- nerships between the city's stakeholders will be tion towards Natural Capitalism is the leader's more effective if they are motivated by a collec- motivation and the leader must possess the tive purpose and vision (asibiya). skills of the traditional types: worker, warrior, The era of hierarchical and regulatory intellectual, and trader to achieve their agenda. forms of leadership may well be long gone if the This means they must be energy based to aim is to provide learning city leadership able to improve productivity or services, whilst reduc- rapidly adapt to and navigate the current and ing resource consumption; courageous to chal- projected waves of chaotic cultural change. I lenge waste and injustice; wise to create propose that leaders who navigate cities human/social capability with no net loss of natu- through this change towards a better future will ral capital; and innovative enough to create new leverage sustainability innovation, by possessing wealth. The Sadvipra are willing to construct a multiple varnas (group minds/perspectives) and self that has aspects of all four varnas - servant, will be able to see and implement multi-dimen- protector, intellectual, and innovator - and are sional processes to create effective partnerships highly evolved spiritually. bound by asibiya (collective purpose). The leadership lesson for the city from Marx's perspective is that to transform the city's superstructure (civic, political and cultural sys- The Humane and Spiritual City tems), intervention would be required at all lev- This focus area is common to Smith, els - the technical, economic, and spiritual. A Augustine, Teilhard de Chardin, Sorokin, and multi-dimensional approach is fundamental in Sarkar. The implication for the city is the need this age of chaotic cultural and systemic change. for it to be a habitat for the human and spiritual Sarkar's Sadvipra would likewise be skilled at development of its citizens. implementing transformation towards a better Smith (1776), when formulating his theory urban future, using a multi-dimensional of moral sentiments, may not have been influ- approach of social development. This multi- enced by Augustine but he was clearly influ- dimensional development of the city as a social enced by Christianity's second "great law": "love unit would require, from Sarkar's perspective, a your neighbour as you would love yourself". For spiritual ideology and practice, a socio-econom- Smith, an ascending society and, by association, ic theory, a social justice and solidarity ethic, an ascending city, would be one where the citi- city texts providing urban theory, meaning and zens combine self-love with love for others - the inspiration, and finally a preceptor or change unity of the material and the spiritual - in their agent for urban innovation (Inayatullah 2002: daily morality. The city becomes the social labo- 212). Sarkar argues that these six dimensions ratory for human civilisation where the dialectic must be active for a successful civilisation, and tension between self-love and love for others is thus, in an increasingly urban world, I suggest tested and manifested. City design, then, is con- that they must be present in a successful city as structed not only to materially benefit its citi- well. zens by providing personal liveability, but also For Khaldun, what is important in transfor- to spiritually benefit its citizens by providing mational leadership is asibiya - the collective public welfare. Contrary to this, Augustine purpose, unity and memory that binds a group. believed humanity was incapable of creating 25 Journal of Futures Studies

such a society or city, as our human condition the basic needs of material existence (asti) - embodies the imperfection of being motivated access to shelter, food, clothing, education, and by self-love. For Augustine, the divine love for health services. Real progress (bhati) is only spir- others (agape) is only possible through the soul itual and is made possible through the exis- controlled by God, Christ being the prototype tence and development of the six factors of of this love and the King destined to rule New civilisation described in the previous focus area. Jerusalem - the sacred City of God. What is rele- Those cities that have these factors will lead vant from Augustine's model is the fact that them to bliss (ananda), where individuals live in New Jerusalem remains a powerful archetype or peace and justice and where spiritual develop- metaphor for Christian civilisation - the right- ment is possible. (Inayatullah 2002: 213) eous city-church with centralised power collect- Inayatullah proposes that Sarkar's model and ing tithes and, in return, dispensing justice to agenda seeks a spiritual planetary civilisation the heathen colonies outside the city. whose goal is to go beyond survival, and create Teilhard de Chardin's evolutionary model a society where internal development - mental of the universe describes how it tends toward bliss - is possible. (ibid: 27) The spiritual city, for the Spirit. Incongruence with this spiritual Augustine, Smith, Teilhard de Chardin, Sorokin, development of humanity leads to entropy, and Sarkar, is one where city design transforms individualism, depersonalisation and, finally, to allow, promote and reflect the spiritual devel- self-extinction. The first three traits are observ- opment of all citizens. The implication of this able in most if not all of our cities and would be urban prerequisite is that our current sacred of no surprise to Sorokin (1957). He too argued places within the city need to be redefined to that western culture was currently dominated free us from our constraining episteme of what by a materialistic worldview or sensate para- is real. Instead, our sacred places need to nur- digm, driving itself toward chaos before a swing ture an expansive, universal spiritual ideology towards an ideational (spiritual) cultural para- that allows open-ended exploration and evolu- digm. His study of the development of architec- tion. ture throughout his proposed cultural super- rhythm showed that the architecture of the city - whether rationalistic (modern) or eclectic The Emerging City Noosphere - (postmodern) - likewise is sensate. For Sorokin, Learning, Conscious, Creative and the spiritual city would consist of ideational Identifiable architecture, dedicated to building transcenden- tal values within the citizenry by communicat- This city noosphere focus is common to ing the meaning and value of what is beyond Teilhard de Chardin, Toynbee, Spengler, and the material world. The city would be manifest Eisler. What I propose from their work is the with spiritual symbolism. idea that the city may become a conscious enti- The current dearth of compassion within ty, able to respond to internal and external our developing cities, and lack of balance forces of change. between the material and spiritual in our west- Teilhard de Chardin (1961) introduced the ern cities, has not gone unnoticed by the United idea of the noogenesis as an evolutionary stage Nations. The message that UNESCO brought to in his human macrohistory. It is the advent of the City Summit (Habitat II) in Istanbul, target- human reflective consciousness and the shift ing this dearth with a clear agenda, can be from the biological condition to the cultural expressed in three words: "Humanising the condition. The noosphere is the collective City". Humanising the city for all ages (stages) of nature of human reality - the accumulation of the life cycle would be a practical step towards successive intelligences and memories. For initiating Sorokin's swing towards an Ideational Spengler (1926) also, the "spirit of culture" is cultural paradigm and spiritual city. For Sarkar, essentially collective consciousness focussed on 26 however humanising the city would only satisfy actualising its central thought or idea. Add to Macrohistory and City Futures

Teilhard de Chardin's and Spengler's shared experiences and those of others. It is a place that notion of collective consciousness the fact that understands itself and reflects upon that under- standing - it is a "reflective city" and self-evalua- our cities are the technological hubs, enabling tion is a defining feature. As a result the learning what Eisler argues is humanity's capacity to be city is able to develop successfully in a rapidly co-creators within the universe, and the city changing socio-economic environment. Where the emerges as the nexus for the next creative revo- unconcerned city flounders by trying to repeat past lution. The city noosphere is reflective, con- success for far too long, the learning city is cre- scious, creative and identifiable - capable of ative in its understanding of its own situation and changing our evolutionary course. The Matrix wider relationships, developing new solutions to movie is, I propose, the cultural expression of new problems. The essential point made by what the western collective consciousness fears Landry is that any city can be a learning city. most - the domination of the artificial intelli- What he describes is essentially also gence of the city noosphere over the human Teilhard de Chardin's noosphere, actualising at noosphere. The virtual reality of this noosphere the city level of collective consciousness: a prob- bondage and exploitation forms the Matrix. The able scenario when enabled by the future tech- reverse of this scenario is portrayed as more nology of the Smart Cyber City. fruitful - the liberation of the human noosphere Spengler also offers the city the key to to pursue its spiritual path, enabled by the developing a unique identity, against the tide of exploitation of artificial intelligence, genomic sameness caused by globalisation or what he and nano-technologies. By 2025, with the pro- terms mass civilisation and urbanisation. The jected convergence of these technologies, the city noosphere must maintain architecture as a city noosphere may well be a reality. Michio vital system of its culture to express its spirit, Kaku (1998) shows how the world will be episteme and cosmology. There are links here changed by the convergence of three scientific with the need for the spiritual city and its revolutions - the computer revolution, the bio- Ideational architecture. What is also useful is molecular revolution, and the quantum revolu- Spengler's analogy linking culture to a "personal- tion. In this world, the Smart (Cyber) City is cre- ity". Combine this idea with the city noosphere, ated, where all things potentially are seamlessly and the result is an actualising conscious entity linked to the global neural network of the with an identifiable personality. Teilhard de World Wide Web. The result of this conver- Chardin's process of complexification and syn- gence creates a highly interactive, dynamic and thesis gives birth to an "intelligent" city culture - sentient form of human habitation (city), cohabi- possessing not only the conscious ability to tating in a symbiotic relationship with its citi- learn and create, but also expressing an identity zens. and personality that is the city noosphere. In Till then, Toynbee's "creative minority" will this reality, the meta-architecture of the city have to guide the city through the anticipated noosphere is its exoskeleton and/or endoskele- waves of technological and social change with ton and ultimately the locus for its identity. the appropriate creative responses to meet the challenges ahead. Toynbee's twentieth century Renewable Energy-powered and model of cultural change is supported by Landry's (2000) twenty-first century argument Efficient Cities for the "learning, creative city". Landry's central The focus on efficient cities, powered by belief, that the learning city is the driver for the renewable energy is common to Kardashev, creative use of culture in urban revitalisation, Lovelock, and Sarkar. The idea that emerges is fits Toynbee's model of social evolution. To that a significant driver of change for cities is quote Landry (2000: 267): the transformation of energy generation and A developing city within society needs to be learn- supply. ing and a creative one. For Landry, a true learn- Using Kardashev's model, our world and its ing city is one, which develops by learning from its 27 Journal of Futures Studies

cities are deeply embedded at the Type 0 civili- perhaps our cities could symbolise this deeper sational stage, where cities are predominately nature of the real and likewise reorganise their powered by non-renewable energy resources. meta-architecture to enable continuous recy- This dependency on a finite resource makes our cling and reconstruction within. The city, then, competitive systems vulnerable to ecological, not only generates energy for use by its inhabi- social and economic collapse due to resource tants, but its physical fabric is embodied energy depletion, war and/or the failure of our means and perhaps affects its citizens more deeply of technology and production. For Kardashev than we understand at the meta-physical level. and Buckminster Fuller (1969), the only path to survival lies in the transformation of our nation states' plutocracy to a Type I civilisation - plane- Conclusion tary governance powered by a global network The lessons for the future of cities from a of shared renewable energy sources. Cities in macro-historical perspective are simple. Change this global network are the nodes of solar ener- within the city may occur within different parts gy generation and transmission. For example, in of the system and in different directions within the daylight, cities would be generating power those parts. The city's leadership may be pro- for themselves and for the cities on the 'night sustainability, whilst the economic system is side' of the planet. Here, energy becomes the pro-growth and in favour of increasing gross catalyst and driver for human development and domestic product. As a result, we can expect global co-operation. decline in some city systems (e.g., leadership, Energy generation and use within our social capital, natural capital) and renewal in cities currently make them the largest produc- other city systems (e.g., constructed capital - ers of entropy on the planet. From Lovelock's infrastructure, economy). Gaian perspective, this phenomenon is disrupt- For effective policy development, imple- ing the earth's dynamic balance (homeostasis), mentation, and change navigation within our and, to reverse the trend towards greater cities, an integrated and multi-dimensional entropy and the collapse of the earth's life sup- approach is needed. Comparing the commonal- port systems, our cities must become more ities amongst different macrohistories when energy efficient. Gaia theory, however, also pro- focussing upon cities revealed six dimensions of vides the answer for our cities. They must the city critical to its symbiotic future with model themselves on our ecology's frugal human civilisation and development. These processes using the principles of bio-mimicry. dimensions reveal a city's subsystems that are The resultant city form would be compact, the hotspots for change intervention. Using a energy efficient, zero net waste and zero emis- multi-dimensional approach with these subsys- sion, equitably accessible, and symbiotically one tems, some of the indicators of change gleaned with the ecology. from the macrohistorical analysis of cities are: At this point, Sarkar enters once again and Expect decline within a city system or sub- makes a contribution on the energy focus of system where/when: cities from the meta-physical perspective and Leaders are unable to respond creative- the nature of what is real. For Sarkar, the real is ly to challenge (complacency). composed of waves of consciousness. In his Loss of asibiya - community purpose. cosmology, these waves transform into various Mass civilisation and urbanisation dom- forms of energy (Inayatullah 2002: 28) - physical inates. matter being the final, most dense form of ener- Materialism and individualism domi- gy and consciousness. The physical fabric of the nates. Class divides deepen - modes (econo- city is likewise a denser form of energy and my) and means (technology) of produc- space and is a part of the cosmic pattern of tion drift apart. energy flow - never created nor destroyed and Expect renewal within a city system or 28 always transforming. With this cosmic view, Macrohistory and City Futures

subsystem where/when: Note Creativity and learning abound. Spirituality develops - increase in asi- 1. For example the Maroochy 2025 Alternative biya with a grand vision or civic idea. Futures and leadership model was explored Unique cultural identity is developed. at a community visioning summit on April 3, Sustainability (Natural Capitalism) is a 2004. Patriarchal hierarchy, strong regulation way of life. with top down expert leadership to domi- Transformation towards a planetary nate all stakeholders to save the environ- culture/civilisation abound (Think glob- ment was contrasted with Learning, partici- ally, Act locally). patory, strong partnerships and community The significance of this piece and the dis- governance to save the environment. 74% of course between macrohistory and the develop- the 369 participants preferred the latter lead- ment of cities as a cultural product is that four ership model. futures of the city emerge: 1. The possible future from the discourse References between Smith, Augustine, Teilhard de Chardin, Sorokin, and Sarkar is the Brundtland, Gro Harlem. 1987. Our Common "Spiritual City". Future: The World Commission on 2. The probable future from the discourse Environment and Development. Oxford between Augustine, Teilhard de University Press. Buckminster Fuller, Richard. 1969. Operating Chardin, Spengler, Khaldun, Sorokin, Manual for Space Ship Earth. Simon & and Toynbee is the "Collapse Scenario". Schuster. 3. The plausible future from the discourse Childe, V. Gordon. 1950. "The Urban Revolution." between Sarkar, Spengler, Khaldun, Town Planning Review 23: 3-17. Smith and Marx is "Mass civilisation and Eisler, Riane. 1987. The Chalice and the Blade: urban sprawl" - megalopolis. Our History, Our Future. HarperCollins. 4. The preferred future from the discourse Galtung, Johan & Inayatullah, Sohail. (Eds.) 1997. between Lovelock, Marx, Sarkar and Macrohistory and Macrohistorians - Eisler is the "Holistically Sustainable Perspectives on Individual, Social and City". Civilisational Change. Praeger. Currently, most western cities are trending Hawken, Paul, Amory Lovins, & Lovins. L. Hunter. 1999. Natural Capitalism. Little, towards mass civilisation, urban sprawl and Brown and Company. megalopolis, and the above dimensions gives a Inayatullah, Sohail. 2002. Understanding Sarkar. clue to where the cultural impetus for transfor- Brill. mation will need to focus in order to shift it Kaku, Michio. 1998. Visions - How science will towards an alternative future. The city is the revolutionize the 21st Century and Beyond. tangible cultural product of civilisation and as Oxford University Press. such can be positively used as a catalyst Khaldun, Ibn. 1377. The Muqaddimah. towards the development of a planetary [Khaldun's macrohistory is discussed in humane civilisation. detail in Galtung & Inayatullah, op cit., 31.] Kitto, H. D. F. 1951. The Greeks. Pelican. Correspondence Koestler, Arthur. 1967. The Ghost in the Machine. Hutchinson. University of the Sunshine Coast, Faculty of Landry, Charles. 2000. The Creative City - a Arts & Social Sciences, Contact: Maroochydore Toolkit for Urban Innovators. Earthscan. DC, Qld 4558, Australia; [email protected] Lovelock, James. 1979. Gaia. Oxford University Research findings based on PhD programme. Press; Jones, Christopher. 1997. "Cosmic Gaia: Homeostasis and Planetary Evolution." P 152 in Macrohistory and Macrohistorians - Perspectives on 29 Journal of Futures Studies

Individual, Social and Civilisational macrohistory is discussed in detail in Change. Edited by Johan Galtung and Galtung & Inayatullah, op cit., 122.] Sohail Inayatullah. Praeger. Wilber, Ken. 2001. A Theory of Everything: An Marx, Karl & Engels, F. 1975. Manifesto of the Integral Vision for Business, Politics, Communist Party. Foreign Languages Science and Spirituality. Shambhala. Press. [First published in London in 1848.] Moughtin, Cliff, Rafael Cuesta, Christine Sarris, & Paolo Signoretta. 1999. Urban Design - Method and Technique. Butterworth Architecture. Pirenne, Henri. 1925. Medieval Cities. Princeton University Press. Ray, Paul H., and Sherry Ruth Anderson. 2000. The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World. Harmony Books. Robèrt, Karl-Henrik. 2002. The Natural Step Story: Seeding a Quiet Revolution. New Society. Rogers, Everett. (1962). Diffusion of Innovations. Free Press of Glencoe. Rossi, Aldo. 1982. The Architecture of the City. Institute for Architecture and Urban Studies and MIT. Sarkar, Prabhat Rainjan. 1983. The Liberation of Intellect - Neo Humanism. Ananda Marga Publications. Savage, Mike & Alan Warde. 1993. Urban soci- ology, Capitalism and Modernity. Macmillan. Smith, Adam. 1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, 2 Vols., Everyman's Library (Methuen, 1950, 6th ed.). Soleri, Paolo. 1969. Arcology: The City in the Image of Man. MIT Press. Sorokin, Pitirim A. [1957] 1985. Social and Cultural Dynamics : A Study of Change in Major systems of Art ,Truth, Ethics, Law, and Social Relationships. Transaction Books. Spengler, Oswald. 1926. The Decline of the West. Alfred A. Knopf. [Spengler's macro- history is discussed in detail in Galtung & Inayatullah, op cit., 99.] Tarde, Gabriel. 1903. The Laws of Imitation (Les Lois de l'Imitation, 1890). Henry Holt and Company. Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre. 1961. The Phenomenon of Man. Harper and Row. Toynbee, Arnold. 1972. A Study of History (rev. 30 ed.). Oxford University Press. [Toynbee's