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PwC Growth Markets Centre The Future of ASEAN – Time to Act May 2018 The Future of ASEAN Time to Act In this report 2 Executive Summary 4 Chapter 1: The ASEAN Journey 44 Chapter 2: Automotive 76 Chapter 3: Financial Services 104 Chapter 4: Consumer Goods 140 Chapter 5: Medical Devices 168 Chapter 6: Refined Fuels 192 Chapter 7: Telecommunications 232 Chapter 8: Transportation 276 Conclusion Executive Summary ASEAN - A Unique Growth Story Time to Act The year 2017 marked the 50th anniversary of ASEAN, Although ASEAN as a collective group of nations A number of immediate challenges, including a consumers in the region, companies will need to (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), which has made some impressive progress in the past 50 slowdown in short-term economic growth, weak adopt innovative strategies to succeed. As we will is a unique achievement considering the conflicts and years, regional variations remain in the economic workforce productivity, over dependence on see in the following chapters, there are a number poverty which characterised the region in the first and social status of its individual markets. At present, external trade and major voids in infrastructure and of common themes to these new strategies, such as half of the 20th century. Since the inception of the ASEAN’s economy remains highly concentrated in its national institutions have raised questions about the localised production and the development of regional ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore three leading markets (Indonesia, Thailand, and the sustainability of ASEAN’s growth story. Underlying hubs to serve ASEAN consumers (automotive and and Thailand) in 1967, the association has not only Philippines), which collectively account for more than these challenges is the fact that the share of population medical devices), as well as the adoption of digital doubled in membership to include Brunei Darussalam, 60 percent of the regional GDP. From a GDP per capita aged 65 and older is projected to reach close to 2.5 capabilities to produce and transport goods, and serve Vietnam, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Cambodia, but has perspective, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam led times the current levels in Asia as a whole by 2050. and communicate with consumers (e.g. financial also successfully weathered both the Asian financial the group with figures at 13 times and seven times the Consequently, the demographic window to push services, consumer goods and telecommunications). crisis of 1997 and the global economic crisis of 2008- regional average, respectively, in 2016. On the other growth across many ASEAN markets is closing, Partnerships and alliances together with vertical 09, to make it the sixth-largest economy globally at hand, although CLMV (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar although at different rates. Therefore, ASEAN as an integration will also play a more significant role – present. Along this remarkable growth journey, ASEAN and Vietnam) markets remain among the least economic bloc and its individual countries need to particularly cross-sector and with industry disruptors has managed to balance economic growth with human developed (by GDP per capita) in the region, they are make reforms with a sense of urgency, to maximise the (Fintech) – as companies try to stay relevant and development to lift millions of people out of poverty well poised for growth, recording some of the strongest growth impact driven by their current demographic competitive, and meet consumers expectations in a across the entire region. GDP growth rates (more than 6 percent) in 2016. dividend, and to prepare themselves for longer-term profitable manner (e.g. fuel refining, transportation). Acknowledging these variations, ASEAN established growth after this window closes. ASEAN’s growth has been powered by its people, with the three pronged ASEAN Community agenda in 2015, ASEAN can be proud of what it has achieved in the the establishment of a formidable labour force and the which focuses not only on economic aspects (AEC), ASEAN and its individual nations, need to progress past 50 years, but the time of passive growth is over. subsequent creation of a wealthier middle class driving but also on political security (APSC) and socio-cultural from an era of passive growth and take more proactive Global trade and consumer markets are evolving, and domestic consumption. More than 100 million people issues (ASCC) such as health and education. The AEC measures to continue to attract investments, develop therefore ASEAN and its individual nations need to are estimated to have joined ASEAN’s workforce over has made some progress toward its goals, including its institutions, and evolve its people and technological acknowledge this and proactively develop business the past 20 years and another 59 million are projected most notably a reduction in trade tariffs where almost capabilities. The private sector will also have a major environments which are conducive to local production, to be added by 2030, making ASEAN the third-largest 99 percent of tariff lines in ASEAN are expected to be role to play in strengthening the region’s growth intra-ASEAN trade and serving local consumers. This labour force worldwide, behind only China and India. at 0 percent levels by the end of 2018. However, across prospects over the coming years, but this will require will take time, and so companies looking to grow across Strengthening employment has fuelled the growth of such a vast and diverse set of nations, these measures companies not only to provide new products and the region need to be equally proactive and innovative the ASEAN middle class, which is associated with a constitute merely the beginning of what is needed services, to meet varying consumer preferences, but in developing and executing strategies which will fulfil higher willingness to pay for quality, convenience, and in order to facilitate economic growth and human also to work more closely with governments to develop the potential of ASEAN. Global growth needs ASEAN to choice, driving the demand for more discretionary and development across ASEAN. the right conditions for businesses to prosper. act now and grab hold of its future. aspirational product categories in the coming years. A growing and more advanced workforce, together with Going forward, we see significant growth opportunities increasing local consumption, has enabled ASEAN for the private sector across a number of industries in to continue to attract substantial FDI despite rising ASEAN — including automotive, financial services, volatility in capital flows worldwide – thus establishing consumer goods, medical devices, fuel refining, itself as the fourth most popular investment destination telecommunications and transportation. However, globally, and the second-largest destination in Asia given the dynamics and challenges of ASEAN, along after China. with the ever evolving and demanding needs of David Wijeratne Partner, Growth Markets Centre Leader PwC Singapore 2 |The Future of ASEAN | PwC PwC | The Future of ASEAN | 3 A story for growth What is ASEAN? In 2017, ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) celebrated 50 years of peace and prosperity, The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or an achievement which is all the more remarkable given ASEAN, was established in August 1967 with the the diversity and conflict which characterised the region signing of the ASEAN Declaration (or the Bangkok over the first half of the 20th century. Over the past half Declaration) by the five founding members: century, ASEAN has successfully weathered economic Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, headwinds such as the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Thailand — also known as the ASEAN 5. and the global economic meltdown of 2008-2009, Brunei Darussalam joined ASEAN in January maintaining strong and steady economic progress, even 1984, followed by Vietnam in July 1995, Lao PDR after doubling its membership to 10 member nations and Myanmar in July 1997, and Cambodia in by 1999. Since then, the region’s GDP has more than April 1999 — together making up the current 10 quadrupled, from US$577 billion in 1999 to US$2,551 member states, or the ASEAN 10.2 billion in 2016, making it the sixth-largest economy worldwide.1 Figure 1.1: ASEAN’s Timeline since Inception ASEAN’s timeline 1967 1984 1995 1997 1999 2015 2017 Inception by Lao PDR and ASEAN 5: Brunei Vietnam Myanmar Cambodia The ASEAN Indonesia, become becomes a Community 50 years of Malaysia, Darussalam joins becomes a ASEAN ASEAN member nation members. member, forming Agenda is Philippines, Financial crisis the ASEAN 10 established Singapore grips ASEAN 5 & Thailand ASEAN’s economic journey since inception (GDP at current prices, US$, billions) Chapter 1: The ASEAN journey 2,551 2,720 2,443 1,982 719 648 577 23 216 1967 1984 1995 1997 1999 2010 2015 2016 2017(e) Source: ASEAN Secretariat, 2017; WEO Database, IMF, October 2017 4 |The Future of ASEAN | PwC PwC | The Future of ASEAN | 5 Lifting nations out of poverty Quality of life secondary and tertiary education, there is still some A diverse group way to go yet. Net secondary education enrolment Among the most notable achievements over these years Along its growth journey, ASEAN has been able to percentages in leading ASEAN economies (Indonesia Although ASEAN as a group has made some impressive has been ASEAN’s ability to drive economic prosperity balance economic growth with human development, 75 percent, the Philippines 67 percent, Malaysia 68 progress
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