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THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION the Impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Employment and Education THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION The impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on employment and education Kenneth Baker Chairman of the Edge Foundation Foreword by Sir Anthony Seldon We are sleepwalking – Government, schools and universities – into the biggest potential disaster of modern times. The nature and number of jobs is set to change dramatically, as this visionary booklet outlines. In 2015, the Bank of England estimated that up to 15 million jobs in Britain are at risk. Societies with large numbers of jobless are unhappy, dangerous places. Yet schools and universities continue to trot out their twentieth-century, nineteenth even, formulae. Economic revolutions in the past, they say, have always been advantageous; this one will be no different. Ah, but it will be. Very different. Professor David Deming at the Harvard Graduate School of Education and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the USA, has argued convincingly that the very skills prioritised by linear thinking schools and universities are precisely the ones that algorithms are able to perform much quicker, more profoundly and reliably than humans. We need to focus far more, if we are to prepare our young for tomorrow’s economy, and to optimise its infinite possibilities, on active as opposed to passive learning, on technical entrepreneurial skills, on personal and collaborative skills that teach us how to live intelligent and fulfilling lives, and how to work and live harmoniously with others. There is no time to waste, as this seminal booklet makes abundantly clear. 2 : EDGE : The Digital Revolution Contents Sir Anthony Seldon is a political historian, author and Foreword by Sir Anthony Seldon, Vice-Chancellor commentator on education and contemporary Britain. His of The University of Buckingham 2 first degree was PPE from Worcester College Oxford, his PhD was from LSE, where he became a Research Fellow. He has Tomorrow’s technology is already here 4 honorary fellowships, doctorates and chairs from a variety of The Fourth Industrial Revolution 6 universities, including Birmingham, King’s College London, and Buckingham itself. He has written or edited over 35 Agents of disruptive technology 8 books including some of the most interesting biographies of Britain’s last four Prime Ministers – John Major, Tony Blair, How will this affect employment Gordon Brown and David Cameron. He founded the Institute and over what timescale? 10 of Contemporary British History, the UK’s leading centre for What will this mean for future jobs? 12 research and study into contemporary British history, with Lord Hennessy and Action for Happiness with Lord Layard. How the nature of work will change 14 He is a governor at the Royal Shakespeare Company and advisor to a wide variety of governmental and charitable What we can learn from University institutions. He is honorary historian of Downing Street. Technical Colleges 16 What this means for the education system He started his life as a teacher in 1983 and ten years later as a whole 21 was appointed Acting Headmaster of St Dunstan’s in South London, and in 1999 the Headmaster of Brighton College A new programme for education 24 which he drove up the league table of examination results, making it one of the most improved academic schools in Notes 26 the country. In 2006 he moved to Wellington College where he repeated that performance turning it by 2013 into the “I have believed up to now that technical “best public school” and the “most forward-thinking school”. revolutions create more jobs than they He has written a number of booklets on education seeking destroy. The Digital Revolution – the ways to improve the basic performance of some of the most underprivileged children and the worst performing schools Fourth Industrial Revolution – will not in our country. Sir Anthony is now the Vice-Chancellor of The follow this pattern.” University of Buckingham. – Kenneth Baker EDGE : The Digital Revolution : 3 Tomorrow’s technology is already here From big data to ultra-fast robots, the digital revolution is already happening Scissors, paper, stone Robotic Surgery The Janken robot hand has played rock-paper-scissors Laparoscopy – keyhole surgery – has already made a huge with hundreds of humans and won every time. It uses difference to many surgical procedures. The next step is ultra-fast optics to interpret movements in the human the use of remote-controlled robots. The da Vinci® Surgical player’s hand and forms a winning shape in just 20 System, developed by Intuitive Surgical Inc, has helped milliseconds, fifteen times faster than a blink of an eye. the Royal Marsden Hospital become the largest provider The robot was developed by Professor Masatoshi Ishikawa of robotic surgical procedures in the UK. Surgeons use at the University of Tokyo Ishikawa Watanabe Laboratory the equipment to make incredibly accurate, microscopic as a demonstration of robots’ ability to react to rapid incisions, greatly improving the patient’s treatment and movement. The technology is likely to have both industrial recovery time. and military applications. (Image © Intuitive Surgical, Inc) (image © Ishikawa Watanabe Laboratory, the University of Tokyo) 4 : EDGE : The Digital Revolution Artificial intelligence beats a Go Master Simulating danger A computer called Deep Blue famously defeated the chess Flight simulators have been around for many years, Grand Master Garry Kasparov in 1997, but it has taken allowing pilots to practise for emergencies that might another 19 years for a computer to beat a top-flight Go never happen. Virtual reality (VR) is increasingly used in professional. AlphaGo, developed by Google DeepMind in other walks of life, too. QinetiQ and Coal Services have London, played Go – an ancient, complex board game – developed a 360-degree theatre which immerses trainees against Lee Sedol in March 2016, winning three out of four in all the sights and sounds of a coal mine to provide ultra- sets. AlphaGo was initially fed information from thousands of realistic mine safety training. In future, VR will open the games played by humans before learning to play the game way to new ways of training people in fire-fighting, first aid, itself. Its ability to learn from experience depends on laying nuclear decommissioning, deep sea welding and high-tech down vast amounts of data in an artificial neural network. manufacturing. (Photo courtesy of Google Inc.) (Photo: ©Coal Services Pty Limited) 3D printing: from houses to nanobots Anywhere, anytime: the gig economy 3D printing can be used for all manner of products and Between 2000 and 2015, the number of British people components using metal, polymers and even concrete. working for themselves but not employing anyone At one end of the scale, Contour Crafting technology else rose by 73%, to 1.7 million.* Already common in developed by Dr Behrokh Khoshnevis, University of agriculture and construction, self-employment has grown Southern California, can be used to build houses. At rapidly in education, health and business services. Mobile the other extreme it is possible to create nanobots communications, cloud computing and virtualisation small enough to inject into the blood stream. Future allow teams to assemble for projects lasting anywhere applications are limited only by our imagination, which between a day and several months, without ever meeting makes it essential for children to learn to use 3D design and face to face. Equally, IT-based businesses like Uber allow technology from primary level onwards. people to work for themselves at times to suit themselves. (Image © Contour Crafting) *Source: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Business Population Estimates 2015 EDGE : The Digital Revolution : 5 Introduction The Fourth Industrial Revolution I have believed up to now that technical revolutions create more jobs than they destroy. In the Industrial Revolution the power of steam provided more jobs than were lost by handworkers; the car revolution of the 1890s created more jobs than were lost by the horse and carriage economy; and the silicon revolution of the 1960s and 1970s created more jobs than were lost in simple clerical and administrative work. When I was a Minister for Information Technology in the early Thatcher years I made several speeches on these lines. However, I have now come to a different conclusion and I now think that the Digital Revolution – the Fourth Industrial Revolution – will not follow this pattern. WHY? First, the pace of technological change is faster than ever. printers; nanotechnology; virtual reality, software-based It took ten years for Thomas Newcomen to improve his digital therapies and machine learning. By next year – engine before he showed it to the world in 1712 and its maybe next month – the list will be longer still. impact on the hand industries was not felt for another sixty years. Today change can come in ten months, ten weeks Third, millions of people across the globe have access to and even ten days – a three year old iPhone is obsolete. huge databases and so experimentation and innovation are The rate of change in education is also accelerating. It has not only made in research centres. Significant changes can been estimated that nearly 50% of subject knowledge be made by talented individuals in their homes, offices and acquired during the first year of a four year technical factories. The ability of small teams of people to devise new degree is outdated by the time the student graduates1. uses, new products and new
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