/-"3.4 /-"3.4 /FUIFSMBOET"OOVBM3FWJFXPG .JMJUBSZ4UVEJFT 4UVEJFTPO-FCBOPO BOE"GHIBOJTUBO QSFTFOU $PNQMFYPQFSBUJPOT $PNQMFYPQFSBUJPOT 4UVEJFTPO-FCBOPO BOE"GHIBOJTUBO QSFTFOU .JDIJFMEF8FHFS 'SBOT0TJOHB )BSSZ,JSLFMT <&ET> 96053_Omslag.indd 1 10-08-2009 13:41:15 NL-ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2009 Complex operations: Studies on Lebanon (2006) and Afghanistan (2006-present) Michiel de Weger Frans Osinga Harry Kirkels [Eds] NL-ARMS is published under the auspices of the Dean of the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA). For more information about NL-ARMS and/or additional copies contact the editors, or the Faculty Research Office of the Faculty of Military Sciences of the NLDA, at the address below: Faculty of Military Sciences of the NLDA Faculty Research Office P.O. Box 90.002 4800 PA Breda phone: +31 76 527 33 17 fax: +31 76 527 33 22 email: [email protected] NL-ARMS 1997 The Bosnian Experience JLM Soeters, JH Rovers [eds] 1998 The Commander’s Responsibility in Difficult Circumstances ALW Vogelaar, KF Muusse, JH Rovers [eds] 1999 Information Operations JMJ Bosch, HAM Luiijf, AR Mollema [eds] 2000 Information in Context HPM Jägers, HFM Kirkels, MV Metselaar, GCA Steenbakkers [eds] 2001 Issued together with Volume 2000 2002 Civil-Military Cooperation: A Marriage of Reason MTI Bollen, RV Janssens, HFM Kirkels, JLM Soeters [eds] 2003 Officer Education – The road to Athens HFM Kirkels, W Klinkert, R Moelker [eds] 2004 Defense Logistics – Winning Supply Chain Networks HFM Kirkels, W Ploos van Amstel [eds] 2005/’06 Terrorist and counterterrorist operations MGD Rothman, RJM Beeres, HFM Kirkels, JLM Soeters [eds] 2007 Defense Accounting Control & Economics. Evidence from the Netherlands RJM Beeres, EJ de Bakker, HFM Kirkels [eds] 2008 Sensors, Weapons, C4I and Operations Research ThM Hupkens, H Monsuurs [eds] 2009 Complex Operations: Studies on Lebanon (2006) and Afghanistan (2006- present) MJ de Weger, FPB Osinga, HFM Kirkels [eds] Typography & Design: Eric Franken AVC NLDA Printed by Koninklijke De Swart, The Hague ISSN 0166-9982 Contents Foreword ...............................................................5 Introduction: towards understanding complex operations.......................7 Michiel de Weger, Frans Osinga and Harry Kirkels Lebanon: Cedar revolution, Summer War and state building ...................25 Theo Brinkel Operation Change of Direction: A short survey of the legal basis and the applicable legal regimes.........................................51 Paul Ducheine and Eric Pouw The Hezbollah enigma...................................................97 Sjoerd Both Mission Impossible? The deployment of the ground forces during Operation Change of Direction .................................. 123 Ted Jansen The use of the air arm during Operation Change of Direction ..................153 Guus de Koster Optimal routing against ambushes: a first approach .........................179 Roy Lindelauf The Israeli actions during the Second Lebanon War: a case study into strategic culture.......................................197 Marcel de Goede The Afghan intervention in a security perspective ...........................223 Allard Wagemaker Political decision making of the mission in Uruzgan, a reconstruction.......... 251 Lenny Hazelbag Between vigilance and reconstruction: Dutch military operations in Afghanistan ........................................................277 Peter van den Aker Experiences as Deputy Commander Air....................................297 Freek Meulman Police reform..........................................................307 Hans Hovens Partner in development. On the development of the Afghan administration...... 333 Michiel de Weger Assessing the new Afghanistan and Pakistan strategy ........................ 357 Julian Lindley-French 4 Foreword For over two years it has been my honour to lead a great group of Dutch military and civilian professionals at the Military Operational Arts and Sciences (MOAS) section of the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA). Our mission has been to generate research that has two simple aims. First, to enhance the chances of mission success for our colleagues deployed on opera- tions at a level of risk commensurate with the task at hand. Second, to reinforce the education of cadets that has been led so ably by my friend and colleague Colonel Ton de Munnik. This book represents the fruits of that research. As could be expected of two outstanding scholars and researchers Dr Michiel de Weger and Colonel Dr Frans Osinga have produced an innovative and accessible edition reflective of our joint aim to establish a new interface between academic and military professionals. The case studies on Lebanon and Afghanistan demonstrate conclusively the need for intellectual input and challenge to conventional thinking because if there is one theme running through the entire book it is this: mission success in complex environments rests upon new partnerships but above all on creative thinking leading to creative effect. This is the stuff of this edition of NL-ARMS which also carries an implicit warning to policymakers and leaders alike. Any military establishment that turns in on itself for fear of short-term political and/or media turbulence will only likely accelerate mission failure. This book also marks the end of my tenure as Professor of the MOAS section. I will hence- forth have the singular honour of being the Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at NLDA. As an Englishman working for the Dutch armed forces there have of course been anomalies, such as the strange insistence of my colleagues that the Netherlands actually won the Anglo- Dutch Wars in the 17th and 18th century. My greatest success has been to disabuse them of that erroneous interpretation of history. My departure from MOAS comes at a moment when accred- itation of the bachelor course of War Studies has come within reach and the section stands ready to build on its burgeoning reputation both in the Netherlands and abroad as a centre of research and education excellence at an exciting time for the Faculty of Military Science. I pay tribute to the Netherlands armed forces and the outstanding colleagues and partners with whom I have had the privilege to work. Julian Lindley-French, Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy, Netherlands Defence Academy, Special Professor of Strategic Studies, University of Leiden, Breda, June 2009. 5 6 Introduction: towards understanding complex operations Michiel de Weger, Frans Osinga and Harry Kirkels 1 NL-ARMS, 2009, 7-24 Background of the volume As is the tradition of NL-ARMS, each year one section of the Faculty of Military Science of the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA) brings together authors and articles on its research domain. This year the Military Operational Arts and Sciences (MOAS) sec- tion is proud to present a series of studies on contemporary (military) conflicts. It is not only the fïrst time the section does so, it is also one of just a few larger Dutch academic publications based on detailed study of military operations since the end of the Cold War. The individual contributions in this volume were derived from the two main MOAS-led research projects of 2008-2009 into a variety of aspects of the Second Lebanon War of 2006 and the ongoing operations in Afghanistan. Texts prepared in these projects were (considerably) reduced in length and translated into English. The research projects delib- erately also involved academics and officers from other sections of the Faculty of Military Science. Thus, this volume encompasses not only an operational perspective, but also an international relations and legal one. Due attention is paid to other (security) actors, like police forces, civilian populations, non-governmental organisations, media and govern- ment. As is appropriate for academic research, the contributions in this volume air a healthy critical attitude. The findings are based on personal, independent, a-political and academic, so critical, analysis by the authors of open source material (and deliberately not of classified material). They do not reflect any opinion of the Netherlands armed forces or the Ministry of Defence. Their focus is entirely on improving our understanding of military operations. The research directly reflects the leadership of professor Lindley-French, head of MOAS from 2007-2009, who stressed that academic education and research are insepa- rable, and that it is the mandate and mission of MOAS to explore current operations so as to inform and intellectually shape the officer corps of the future. Four arguments formed the intent of and underlying rationale for the research projects. First, a top-class military education requires maintaining a relevant and up-to-date curriculum, which in turn requires that educators, both academic and military, not only teach, but also conduct research. The two case studies have offered the faculty valuable research expertise, course material as well as a wealth of insights that they can bring into the classroom. Second, 7 as MOAS is charged with educating officers on the nature of contemporary operations, the section would be remiss if it did not focus on the two selected case studies. Both feature dynamics, operational problems, types of actors and approaches that will prob- ably colour at least a part of the future operational environment today’s cadets will likely encounter during their future careers. Moreover, even though participation in