sallux ECPM FOUNDATION European security, Turkish foreign policy and Article 5 of the NATO Treaty

JOHANNES DE JONG & CHRISTIAAN MEINEN

Do NATO member states have a duty to protect Turkey while Turkey at the same time threatens NATO and European security and stability? This publication clarifies that NATO members can withhold (Article 5) protection without changing the NATO Treaty or expelling Turkey from NATO. European, Canadian and American citizens can be informed that the military of their countries will not protect Turkey and the Erdogan government. The question Source: periodista.gr is if European, Canadian and US politicians have the courage to do so. sallux European security ECPM FOUNDATION 3

Key takeaways from this paper

1. The EU, US, Canada and NATO are struggling with the question of how to deal with Turkey. This publication of- fers an overview of Turkish behaviour since 2013 and a viable way forward in how to counter it. The strategy that this publication suggests is that NATO Member States, backed by their Parliaments or Congress, will state that Turkey can no longer count on protection based on Article 5 of the NATO Treaty until Turkey changes its behaviour. 2. This publication maintains that Turkish external behav- iour since 2013 is based on the ideological agenda of President Erdogan’s AKP government. The domestic oppression of Kurds, opposition, and all forms of free Diyanet minister Ali Erbaş holding a sword, ‘neo-Ottomanism’. Turning Hagia Sofia speech mirrors that agenda as well. in the Ottoman tradition, as he gives the into a mosque symbolised and clarified 3. In order to effectively deal with this situation this publi- sermon in the Hagia Sophia. The “conquest the ideological agenda behind the mili- cation outlines the interpretation of Article 5 of the NATO verse” from the Koran (48:1) is also inscribed tary and diplomatic escalation since 2013. Treaty as described by NATO itself. From there, this pub- on the sword. It reads: “Indeed, we have giv- lication explains why it would be consistent with demo- en you, [O Muhammad], a clear conquest.” 1 A clash between the EU and cratic principles, the NATO Treaty, and helpful for EU, US source: lintasnasional.com Erdogan’s Turkey and NATO security to make it clear to Turkey that it is no longer protected under Article 5 until it changes its be- Turkey has been portrayed negatively in At 16 October 2020, history teacher Sam- haviour. This will force Turkey to concentrate on its own the news for many years. The government uel Paty was murdered in Paris by an is- security instead of the current expansionist agenda. For led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is involved lamist extremist after Mr. Paty had shown this, no change of the NATO Treaty or Turkish member- in fighting a number of wars and is esca- the Charlie Hebdo cartoons of the proph- ship of NATO is needed. lating its confrontation against EU Mem- et Muhammed in a class on freedom of 4. The publication closes with a call to politicians in Europe, ber States. It is flexing its muscles and is speech (not with the purpose to provoke the US, and Canada to muster the courage to stand up attempting to hijack the population in the pupils). The killer was subsequentially for human rights and security and reassure our citizens, an Islamist, nationalistic drive known as found by the police and shot which lead and our men and women in uniform now that no sacri- to his death. In the days after it became fices will be made to defend Turkey in its current state. 1 https://www.world-today-news.com/what-is- public knowledge that the Pantin mosque the-sword-tradition-in-the-sermon-here-is-the- message-given-by-the-sword-tradition/ near Paris and islamist teachers had been sallux sallux 4 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 5 spreading online hate messages against not acceptable4. A number of European Customs Union agreement with the EU trine of Davutoglu)10. Today, Erdogan is a Mr. Paty. The teachers were arrested, and Ministers stated their support for Macron in 1995 and was officially recognised as a de-facto dictator in a country where there the mosque closed2. As a consequence and condemned Erdogan5. Subsequently candidate for full membership on 12 De- is no freedom of press, where Kurds are the French authorities launched a crack- Erdogan called at 26 October for a boy- cember 1999, at the Helsinki summit of oppressed, and freedom of expression down against Islamic extremist groups. cott on French products6. the European Council. Negotiations for has been marginalized. In that sense President Macron launched a vigorous full membership were started on 3 Octo- both domestically and in foreign policy, defence of free speech and reaffirmed German Foreign Minister Maas called it ber 2005. Since then progress has been Turkey’s agenda is now neo-Ottoman- the project that he announced at 2 Octo- ‘a new low’ in Erdogan his behaviour7. very slow. The early 2016 refugee deal ism. ber in a speech3. In that speech he stated The term ‘new’ was unsurprising given between Turkey and the European Union that “Islam is a religion which is experi- the fact that it came after a series of es- was intended to accelerate negotiations This publication describes that the de- encing a crisis today, all over the world,” calations by Turkey against Greece, Cy- after previous stagnation and allow vi- scribed escalation between France, EU citing difference between fundamental- prus and Armenia in the previous month. sa-free travel through Europe for Turks. and Turkey is only the latest sign that ism, proper religious projects and politi- These escalations followed after years of The refugee deal however reflected an Turkey’s neo-Ottomanism has become cians. He announced measures to reduce increasing aggression as a consequence opposite reality that had grown since the a threat to Europe’s security. The change foreign and extremist influence over the of Erdogan his growing desire to become ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011. that started in 2011 became apparent in Muslim community in France as a run- the leader of the Muslim world akin to the Syrian civil war since 2013 and has up to the presentation of his draft law on the role of the Ottoman empire8. When Erdogan took power in 2003 he in- become more aggressive and extreme “secularity and liberty” in December. The itially made a number of promising steps ever since. This publication describes this French crackdown on islamist groups Although the relation between Turkey . He started a peace process with the PKK reality in full in order to give a compre- brought this speech back into focus and and the EU has had it ups and downs to end the civil war between Kurds and hensive overview of these developments the remark that ‘the Islam is in crisis’ there has been steady progress between Turks that had plagued Turkey since the and how the cumulative acts of Turkish was pulled out of context which incited a 1987 and 2005. Turkey was one of the first 1970’s. He created more cultural free- aggression became this threat. This pub- fiery response from parts of the Muslim countries to become a member of the doms and emphasized in 2006 that Tur- lication however does not just describe world, especially from Turkish President Council of Europe in 1949 thanks to the key was a multi-ethnic society. He creat- this reality but presents a clear policy op- Erdogan. secularist and westward looking philoso- ed a better relation with both Greece and tion through Article 5 of the NATO Treaty phy of Kemal Ataturk. Turkey acceded to Armenia in these early years. The change to deal with this security situation. Our Erdogan stated that “Macron needs the European Economic Community, the towards the, starkly different, current sit- aim is to present MP’s and other policy treatment on a mental level. What else predecessor of the EU, on 14 April 1987. uation began in 2011 around the ‘Arab makers with a concrete tool to enable can be said to a head of state who does The country was also an associate mem- Spring’ and after the third time that the them to work on a more secure Europe. not understand freedom of belief and ber of the Western European Union from AKP won the elections where Erdogan who behaves in this way to millions of 1992 to its end in 2011. Turkey signed a started his attempts to seize domestic That Turkey now indeed represents a se- people living in his country who are and regional power9. However it should curity situation was something that Eu- members of a different faith?”. In re- 4 https://apnews.com/article/turkey-men- be noted that the previous ‘zero prob- rope fully woke up to in September and sponse France recalled its Ambassador tal-health-health-recep-tayyip-erdogan-fran- lems with the neighbours’ policy was in October 2020, just before the above de- ce-a4464c96841ae2be9c40cd316f543d59 and declared that these remarks were 5 https://apnews.com/article/turkey-emma- fact a soft-power approach based on the scribed diplomatic escalation between nuel-macron-recep-tayyip-erdogan-france-euro- Ottoman empire (Strategic Depth doc- Turkey and the EU. This realisation came pe-6b12b46b33a77094c5c91a544f2a017f when in September and October 2020, 6 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro- 2 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro- pe-54692485 pe-54625270 7 https://www.dw.com/en/maas-slams-unaccep- 10 Murinson, 2006: 947-948; Walker, 2007: 33-34 3 https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/27/ma- table-attack-by-erdogan-on-macron/a-55398995 9 https://www.dw.com/en/turkish-pre- & The Davutoğlu Doctrine cron-and-islam-what-has-the-french-president-ac- 8 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro- mier-seeks-influence-during-arab-spring- and Turkish Foreign Policy by loannis N. Grigoria- tually-said-to-outrage-the-muslim-world pe-54692485 tour/a-15388922 dis Bilkent University / ELIAMEP (p. 4/5). sallux sallux 6 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 7

Erdogan engaged in unprecedented dip- the Turkish government and extremists to claim for itself18. This happened in the US State Department and the related lomatic and armed escalations against backed by the Erdogan government as early September 2020 after tensions be- diplomatic corps have long held the line Armenia, Cyprus and Greece. well as the Turkish behaviour in the last tween Greece and Turkey over a similar in defending Turkey against the mood few years12/13. search mission by Oruc Reis almost es- expressed in national Parliaments, the For both Members of European Par- calated into open war. Both navies con- European Parliament and the US Senate liament and Members of Parliament On 8 October 2020, Turkey de facto seized ducted drills and a Greek and Turkish and Congress. MP’s and MEP’s in Eu- of EU Member States we recommend the property around the Varosha beach in warship collided19. The French navy sent rope and members of US Congress or pursuing an end to the EU accession Northern Cyprus14. This means that orig- a carrier and part of its fleet to support Senate often call for more concrete and talks with Turkey as well as any fund- inal Greek owners (and now EU citizens) Greece20. The United Arab Emirates sent harsher actions against Turkey only to re- ing to Turkey connected to these talks. will be robbed from property worth bil- fighter jets to support Greece against ceive non-committal responses or softer This publication describes how Turkey lions, signalling that Turkey will block any Turkey21. After EU and US mediation, Tur- statements and the refusal to implement is undermining European security, peaceful solution to the situation in Cy- key moved the Oruc Reis back to Turk- sanctions23/24/25. Both the fear of a new which is incompatible with accession prus. That signal was underscored when ish waters. Since October 11 the situa- refugee wave in Europe and business talks. In that light the Customs Union the Turkish Cypriot President, Mustafa tion escalated again and on 14 October interests kept the mentioned Foreign Af- with Turkey can be terminated as well. Akinci, informed the public that he had 2020, the Associated Press reported that fairs departments stuck to a policy that been threatened by Erdogan to pressure Erdogan accused Greece and Cyprus of glossed over the aggression and human Turkish escalation against him not to stand for re-election15. Musta- failing to fulfil “promises” made during rights abuses as well as the increasing Armenia, Cyprus and Greece fa Akinci aims for a peaceful unification negotiations within the European Union oppression in Turkey and the silencing of Cyprus. In November 2020, Erdogan and NATO, and said his country would of the opposition26. This policy is now be- From the last week of September 2020 stated that he wanted to split Cyprus continue to give them “the response they coming more and more untenable as it is to the first weeks of October 2020, Tur- permanently16. EU High Representative deserve”22. becoming clearer and clearer that Turkey key engaged in three consecutive acts of Borrell indicated that this was another takes this policy as a signal that it can escalation against its neighbours. First, tipping point in the EU-Turkey relation17. The question that arises from this fren- expand and continue hostile acts without Turkey supported Azarbaijan through the zy of military and diplomatic hostility is any consequences27. Moreover, the esca- Syrian jihadists that Turkey recruited for On 11 October 2020 Turkey sent the re- whether Turkey is indeed reaching the lating Turkish behaviour makes it ever the purpose to start a war on 27 Septem- search ship Oruc Reis back to Greek and tipping point in its relations with the US more difficult to maintain the described ber against Armenia in Nagorno-Kara- Cypriot waters in order to search for gas and EU and what impact that may have on diplomatic and technocratic distance by bach11. Subsequently, Turkey blocked all and oil in these waters that Turkey aims NATO. The EU Foreign Affairs, EU Mem- Foreign Affairs departments from dem- efforts to reach a ceasefire and moved ber States Foreign Affairs Ministries, and ocratically elected Parliaments and Con- even more jihadists to the conflict. This 12 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ worldviews/wp/2014/08/06/is-armenian-an-insult- 18 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro- raised the memory of the enormous turkeys-prime-minister-seems-to-think-so/?ar- pe-54504123 23 https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/politiek/ trauma of the genocide against the Ar- c404=true 19 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-tur- artikel/4879796/turkije-sancties-kabinet-si- menian, Syriac-Assyrian and Greek peo- 13 https://www.vice.com/en/article/epddna/tur- key-warships-idUSKCN25A161 grid-kaag-syrie ples in the final days of the Ottoman em- key-france-armenia-grey-wolves-lyon 20 https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/09/ 24 https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/10/17/ 14 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/clash-tur- eastern-mediterranean-energy-balance-evol- us-senators-call-for-sanctions-on-turkey-after-rus- pire. The Armenian community is, at the key-becoming-inevitable-170143 ves-as-france-sends-nuclear-powered-aircraft-car- sian-s-400-test/ moment of the release of this publication 15 https://www.evrensel.net/daily/416166/tur- rier.html 25 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/tur- (Novemober 2020), reliving that trauma. key-has-threatened-me-not-to-stand-as-a-candi- 21 https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulid- key-military-action-in-syria-urgent-question-ope- That seems justified in light of the Isla- date-in-presidential-election-says-turkish-cypri- don/2020/08/26/uae-sends-fighter-jets-to-sup- ning-statement ot-leader-mustafa-akinci port-allies-against-turkey/#1df818f927e1 26 https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/coun- mist and anti-Armenian rhetoric from 16 https://www.politico.eu/article/erdo- 22 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ try-chapters/turkey gan-calls-for-two-state-solution-for-cyprus/ national-security/turkey-says-greece-failed-to-ful- 27 https://www.bloomberg.com/opi- 11 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-arme- 17 https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkeys-behavi- fill-promises-vows-response/2020/10/14/c8d39eb8- nion/articles/2020-10-19/turkey-s-erdo- nia-azerbaijan-putin-macron-idUSKBN26L3SB our-widening-separation-eu-151543630.html 0e16-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html gan-gets-away-with-foreign-policy-adventurism sallux sallux 8 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 9 gress that demand action against this The question that this publication asks violate human rights. This overview will Army (FSA) was created35. Especially in aggression. is whether the EU, EU Member States conclude with providing some reasons and after 2013 the FSA fell apart in many and the US have indeed learned the les- why we believe that economic sanctions different groups with different ethnic, There are now clear signals that the sons from the Turkish policies and acts alone will not force Turkey into retreat political and religious agendas36/37. Turkey mood is changing in Foreign Affairs de- since 201332. The fact is that many reali- from this path of destruction. This pub- ensured that its own support and that of partments and that the escalation de- ties have been framed in such a manner lication maintains that it is necessary to western partners went to these islamist scribed above in Armenia, Cyprus and that each military act or hostile behaviour force Turkey to concentrate again on its groups. From Sallux conversations with Greece is indeed leading to a tipping has often been dealt with separated from own security. the Syriac Military Council (Self-Defense point. On October 13 the US State De- all other Turkish behaviour. In some cas- force of Syriac Christians in NE Syria/ partment stated: “The United States es (like the Turkish invasion of Afrin), the Turkish behaviour since SDF) in 2014, it became clear that Euro- deplores Turkey’s October 11 announce- unprovoked military hostility and human 2013; acts, ideology and pean and US support for Syrian opposi- ment of renewed Turkish survey activity rights abuses have even been justified by consequences tion was in that time completely deter- in areas over which Greece asserts ju- western officials and government minis- mined by Turkish preferences (western risdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean, ters3334. The failure to act decisively has led The format of this publication does not support later shifted to the Syrian Demo- (..). Coercion, threats, intimidation, and to an untenable situation that threatens allow for an extensive consideration of cratic Forces). The Turkish influence over military activity will not resolve tensions Europe’s security and destabilises NA- each situation. However, a concise over- the support for Syrian armed opposition in the Eastern Mediterranean. We urge TO’s southern flank. This however is still view will be provided that gives a picture was underscored when in 2018 a scan- Turkey to end this calculated provocation not fully understood as the total picture of how the various military interventions dal rocked the Dutch government when and immediately begin exploratory talks of Turkey’s malign activities and political where Turkey is involved in since 2013 it appeared that the Dutch Ministry of with Greece”28. Meanwhile the US is ac- agenda is often not debated. Debates of- and explain how they are interconnected Foreign Affairs had, since 2015, support- celerating the process of decreasing US ten focus on the situation at hand. the and are driven by an ideological expan- ed extremist groups with ‘non-lethal-as- presence at Incirlik airbase in Turkey and debate. Ministries of Foreign Affairs do sionist agenda. This sequence of events sistance’ (for example pick-up trucks) move it to Crete29. At the EU level, even not provide a full overview to MPs when a coming from that agenda has created a through a program to support the Syri- Germany is more and more under pres- new act of hostility and destabilisation by serious security situation for Europe. an opposition. What was not mentioned sure from France, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey is on the agenda. As the situation is that the Turkish intelligence screened other Member States to follow up on EU has developed over the years it is there- these groups and excluded those who did threats in September that it would sanc- fore crucial to have a clear picture of the not support their ideological aims from tion Turkey if it continued its aggression overall situation. For that reason we in- the support programs. The Dutch Cling- in the Eastern Mediterranean30. Never- clude here an overview of Turkish foreign endael Institute however makes it clear in theless, the EU Council so far only under- policy realities since 2013, the cumulative a report dedicated to this topic that ‘Tur- scored the December deadline for Turkey consequences for Europe’s security and key hosted the FSA’s initial military head- to adapt its behaviour31. the ideological agenda that explains the quarters, facilitated collaboration among drive behind these destabilising acts that FSA field commanders, welcomed sup- 28 https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/ portive Western/Gulf representatives in us-slams-turkeys-seismic-survey-push-in-eas- 32 https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-gree- tern-mediterranean-645560 ce-eu/carrot-and-stick-approach-to-turkey-failing- the early stages of the war, and launched 29 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pompeo- eu-envoys-say-idUKL8N2H51ZA Supporting extremists in the holds-talks-on-moving-the-incirlik-air-base-to-pu- 33 https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato- 35 https://www.joshualandis.com/blog/free-syri- nish-erdogan-6nhph9hxh chief-says-turkey-has-right-to-self-defense-amid- Syrian civil war since 2013 an-army-established-to-fight-the-syrian-army/ 30 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro- afrin-operation-126326 36 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/ pe-54381498 34 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-mid- The Syrian crisis became a civil war in may/08/free-syrian-army-rebels-defect-isla- 31 https://apnews.com/article/internati- dle-east-42782017 ( The phrase ‘Turkish legitimate June 2011 and at 29 July the Free Syrian mist-group onal-news-turkey-ankara-baghdad-gree- security concerns’ was used to ‘explain’ the Turkish 37 https://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmili- ce-494c598b2b846c5257d3452615b2aed1 invasion of Afrin and to justify western inaction) tants/cgi-bin/groups/view/523 sallux sallux 10 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 11 a ‘train and equip programme’ in 2014 This early development is significant as sia released much of the information it of Europe56/57. Turkey has for a long time for vetted fighters to accelerate the over- it was indicative of the ideological agen- had on the Turkish oil deals with ISIS50. been portrayed as a necessary pillar for throw of the Assad regime, together with da of the Turkish policy. Turkey has been Some Turkish government officials, -un European security. However, ISIS has the US38. Furthermore, the Clingendael using this pool of extremists in many derstanding that this cooperation with committed a series of very grave attacks Institute states that ‘Ankara attempted a consecutive conflicts that it has been in- ISIS was ultimately dangerous for Turkish in Europe and Turkey’s support for ISIS similar ‘control-through-centralisation’ volved in; notably in Afrin, Libya, North- security, came forward to reveal the talks is therefore a threat to Europe. The idea approach towards nationalist Islamist East Syria and Nagorno-Karabach43/44. and deals between the Erdogan regime that Turkey somehow fits into the inter- armed groups in northwest Syria (par- Within the ranks of the Syrian National and ISIS51. Moreover, high-ranking US ests of Europe is no longer applicable if ticularly Idlib), albeit with less success. Army (SNA), a number of ISIS fighters officials (such as Brett McGurk, former Turkey is a threat to Europe’s security. Between 2013 and 2016, Turkey acted as have been identified which is unsurpris- US envoy to the International Coalition Turkish support for jihadists, ISIS and re- a silent partner – along with Saudi Ara- ing given the Turkish support for ISIS45. against ISIS) have implicitly or explicitly lated terror groups undermines Europe’s bia and Qatar – in the provision of direct stated that Turkey is supporting ISIS52. security. and indirect financial assistance to such Turkish support for ISIS Remnants of ISIS moved to Turkish oc- Islamist armed opposition groups’39. cupied areas in Syria and became part Turkish invasion of Afrin Moreover, these Islamist forces moved Stories regarding Turkish support for of the Turkish controlled Syrian National to extremism in that time-frame40. Saudi ISIS have been recurring since the siege Army (SNA)53. Around 25 October 2020 On January 19 2018, Turkey invaded Af- Arabia backed out of their involvement of Kobane in 2014, especially from the SNA elements stationed in Turkish-occu- rin in North-West Syria even though it around 2016/2017 and gravitated towards moment that ISIS fighters tried to enter pied North-East Syria waved ISIS flags in did not pose any threat to Turkey58. The the Syrian Democratic Forces parallel Kobane while coming from Turkey (Ko- anti-French protests54/55. simple fact was that Turkey did not want with increasing acrimony between Sau- bane is adjacent to the Turkish border)46. this canton of the Autonomous Adminis- di-Arabia and Turkey. Around that same Several reports published through inves- The collected evidence from a range of tration to exist. Afrin presented a demo- time, the US and other western powers tigative journalism have revealed the ties sources points to a sustained and long- cratic alternative for ethnicities to co-ex- moved their support to the Syrian Dem- and support from Turkey to ISIS4748. The term support by Turkey for ISIS which ist peacefully without being dominated ocratic Forces (SDF)41. That left Turkey as Autonomous Administration of North- has severe implications for the security through Turkish nationalism or through sole ‘patron’ of what had become a loose East Syria filed, in 2016, a report detail- a Turkish proxy government. It was the alliance of extremists and jihadists; Tur- ing the evidence they found on Turkish only area of Syria not damaged by the key merged these groups into the ‘Syrian cooperation with ISIS49. After Turkey civil war. Moreover, Afrin implemented National Army’42. brought down a Russian fighter jet, Rus- freedom of religion and gender equali- 50 https://www.nordicmonitor.com/2019/09/er- ty59/60. Afrin harboured a hundred thou- 43 https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ dogan-governments-role-in-isis-oil-trade-exposed/ sand IDPs regardless of Afrin’s limited north-africa-west-asia/what-are-syrian-mercena- 51 https://www.nordicmonitor.com/2020/01/ 38 Clingendael Institute: ‘Strategies of Turkish ries-doing-azerbaijan/ whistle-blowers-tell-details-of-secret-talks-bet- proxy warfare in northern Syria’, November 2019, 44 https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-syrian-mer- ween-erdogan-govt-and-isis-leaders/ 56 https://twitter.com/AnneSpeckhard/sta- Chapter 1, p.6. cenaries-foreign-policy/a-55098604 52 http://www.hawarnews.com/en/haber/brett- tus/1284443408464060417 39 Clingendael Institute: ‘Strategies of Turkish 45 https://www.icsve.org/the-isis-ambassador/ mcgurk-why-are-we-allies-of-a-state-that-sup- 57 https://www.thenationalnews.com/opini- proxy warfare in northern Syria’, November 2019, 46 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ ports-terrorism-like-turkey-h12765.html on/comment/ankara-s-links-with-isis-are-st Chapter 2, p.8 middleeast/syria/11697764/Isil-reenters-key-Syria- 53 https://rojavainformationcenter.com/sto- ill-a-red-flag-1.1126332?fbclid=IwAR3wZYnb- 40 https://www.theguardian.com/wor- border-town-of-Kobane-live.html rage/2020/10/Rojava-Information-Center-Data- bRML04SHRPbT3a-YzV3uOn625CPPmqAUt69Be- ld/2015/dec/20/most-syrian-rebels-sympathi- 47 https://investigativejournal.org/video/turkey- base-Former-ISIS-Members-Now-Part-of-Tur- h3CqVEFLzOyNV0 se-with-isis-says-thinktank supports-isis-and-al-qaeda-in-syria/ kish-Backed-Forces.pdf 58 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-mid- 41 https://tcf.org/content/report/assads-ene- 48 https://www.meforum.org/5317/turkey-isis 54 https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/ dle-east-42704542 mies-gave-syrian-opposition/?agreed=1 & https://anca.org/columbia-university-resear- syria/26102020 59 https://www.theguardian.com/commen- 42 https://syriadirect.org/news/the-syri- chers-confirm-turkeys-links-to-isis/ & https:// 55 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/tur- tisfree/2018/mar/16/turkey-democracy-kur- an-national-army-for-the-syrian-revoluti- turkey-isis.org/ keys-anti-french-incitement-underpins-pro- dish-afrin-britain-syria-arming on-or-against-the-kurds-1/ 49 Sallux can provide this report at request tests-in-syria-647588 60 https://www.worldwatchmonitor.org/tag/afrin/ sallux sallux 12 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 13 resources61. The international commu- Europe and America. Before this invasion, areas in Syria.7273. Turkish-backed jihadists PKK’78. This attack consisted of bombings nity abandoned the people of Afrin and the SDF, the US, and Turkey had agreed to clash continuously in the areas occupied and commandos entering Iraqi Kurdis- allowed Turkey to use SNA extremists to a security mechanism in August 2019 and by them and Turkish troops as different ji- tan. These bombings also targeted the destroy this society and destroy in par- the SDF had fulfilled all conditions66. Er- hadi gangs fight over loot and dominance Yazidis in Sinjar, even though it is crys- ticular the Christian and Yazidi commu- dogan nevertheless ordered the attack (as in towns and areas74. Turkey asserts virtu- tal clear that the PKK has long since left nities of Afrin62. In March 2018 the Syrian in Afrin) in which mainly the SNA jihadist ally no pressure over the various jihadi mi- there, as both Baghdad and the US have Democratic Forces were forced to retreat forces were deployed for the ground in- litias to end this violence even though they confirmed79. Since then, Turkey has con- and so were a hundred thousand Afrin vasion. During the invasion these forces operate next to Turkish forces. tinued incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan up citizens63. Since then, Afrin has become a liberated ISIS prisoners, attacked the civil- until November 2020. These incursions very dangerous area in which competing ian population, and raped and murdered At the same time, the SDF and the Au- and bombings have been especially hurt- gangs of extremists are terrorizing the Hevrin Khalaf, a political leader67/68/69. The tonomous Administration remain cru- ful for the Syriac-Assyrian Christians in civilian population that is still present. Turkish army deployed banned phos- cial in dealing with the ISIS threat in the that part of Iraqi Kurdistan as their villag- Afrin is now a safe haven for extremists phorus against the SDF and the civilian region as well as the ISIS prisoners. It is es have been struck in particular, causing and terrorists that commit (among oth- population70. The deal reached between clear that the Turkish invasion in North- a wave of displacements80. The question er things) human trafficking and other the SDF and Russia on the one hand, and East Syria has emboldened ISIS and put a here is whether this situation will eventu- crimes against humanity64. Especially Russia and Turkey on the other hand, end- great strain on the SDF and the Autono- ally lead to a larger conflict. That question women and girls risk being kidnapped, ed the invasion on October 22. Although mous Administration75. The SDF has been is relevant because Turkey has hinted at raped and murdered.65 Based on the both the US and Russia have stayed in the instrumental in defeating ISIS in East- ambitions which go far beyond a few PKK above it is safe to say that the Turkish oc- area and although Turkish/Russian patrols ern Syria (their former stronghold). As a camps in the border region. On June 19, cupation of Afrin has been a setback in continue, there is also continuing violence consequence this Turkish invasion and Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mev- the international attempt to decrease ter- and harassment by the Turkish army and occupation is a serious undermining of lüt Cavuşoğlu, stated that the entire Su- rorism and extremism. the SNA. Turkish jihadists demolish and European security76/77. laymaniyah province of Iraqi Kurdistan is loot the region they occupy in NE Syria71. “under guidance” of the PKK81. Given that Turkish invasion in North- Turkish jihadists kidnap, rape, and murder Military incursion in Iraqi Turkey has always used “PKK” to justify its East Syria many young women in their controlled Kurdistan expansion policy in the region, Baghdad is concerned about losing parts of Iraq to The unprovoked Turkish invasion in In June 2020, Turkey launched an attack Turkey. This concern is partly because the North-East Syria in October 2019 has been on Iraqi Kurdistan with support from EU and the US soft responses to all Turk- widely documented in all major media in 66 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/us- Iran under the premise of ‘attacking the ish military invasions up until recently. hoping-its-security-mechanism-gamble-in-syria- Therefore, there is no confidence that an- will-pay-off-analysis-602422 61 https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/ 67 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/isis-priso- 72 https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/ yone else will stop a Turkish attack. This f8b355e5-25af-41ab-abd2-5c8a6730e8ea/syri- ners-are-escaping-from-camps-in-syria-amid-tur- news/583763dd-efd8-4b1b-9b4d-2de8adee8019 Turkish attack on Iraq therefore entails an-arab-idps-shelter-in-rojava%E2%80%99s-afrin kish-offensive.html 73 https://www.srf.ch/news/international/ 62 https://vermontcatholic.org/world/christi- 68 https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ folgen-tuerkischer-offensive-brutaler-krieg-ge- 78 https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/ an-activists-say-militias-target-religious-minori- news/2019/10/syria-damning-evidence-of-war-cri- gen-frauen-in-nordostsyrien iraq/040720201 ties-in-syria/ mes-and-other-violations-by-turkish-forces-and- 74 https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/sy- 79 https://www.uscirf.gov/news-room/relea- 63 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ their-allies/ ria/rebels-fighting-sari-kani-ras-al-ain-280520201 ses-statements/uscirf-condemns-turkish-air-stri- jun/07/too-many-strange-faces-kurds-fear-forced- 69 https://www.businessinsider.nl/turkey-syria-vi- 75 https://www.mei.edu/publications/us-policy- kes-sinjar demographic-shift-in-afrin deos-war-crimes-us-accuses-2019-10?interna- and-resurgence-isis-iraq-and-syria#pt7 80 https://syriacpress.com/blog/2020/10/15/ 64 https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/ tional=true&r=US 76 https://warsawinstitute.org/turkeys-invasi- former-iraqi-mp-joseph-sliwa-turkish-aircraft-re- rights-groups-concerned-about-continued-abu- 70 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/syria-inva- on-syria-consequences-europe/ new-bombing-chaldean-syriac-assyrian-and-kur- ses-afrin sion-phosphorus-evidence-mounts-against-erdo- 77 https://www.neweurope.eu/article/tur- dish-villages-in-nohadra/ 65 https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/ gan-7v2thnhtd keys-syria-invasion-empowered-russia-extre- 81 https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/ news/583763dd-efd8-4b1b-9b4d-2de8adee8019 71 https://www.syriahr.com/en/157609/ mist-groups-and-undermined-natos-principles/ news/8a3ab4bb-248f-4be1-a461-2c7e17d61219 sallux sallux 14 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 15 far more risks of escalation than is appar- vant to notice to whom these weapons example of how Turkey is undercutting nies this aggression is being ignored as ent at first sight. ISIS is still active in Iraq are supplied and distributed. It is well Europe and NATO and how Turkish mil- being “for domestic use”. By not connect- and is growing there again82. The Turkish known and recognised that Turkey ships itary operations outside Turkey are key in ing these two facts, the impression of a attack in Iraq is therefore undermining Syrian extremists to Libya. This was al- that process. rational regime in Ankara is maintained. the security of the region and the EU. ready explained in detail by the renowned ‘Deutsche Welle’ (DW) that this included This Turkish attempt to control the East- This attitude is however now more and Turkish military the infamous ‘Sultan Murad’ brigade, ern Mediterranean and the joint response more under pressure from the real-life intervention in Libya and which was also at the centre of the prob- from France, Greece, and the Arab world experience with Turkish expansionism claims over the Eastern lems that came to light with regard to the largely explains the subsequent Turkish and how this is shaped and motivated by Dutch support for extremists in Syria85. conflict with Greece and Cyprus in Sep- the Erdogan government. Turkey does Mediterranean The Openfacto report shows that Turkey tember 2020 (Oruc Reis exploration etc connect the neo-Ottoman and islamist In November and December 2019, Turkey makes no distinction as to which of its as described earlier in this publication). rhetoric to the military and diplomatic started to move SNA forces to Libya as proxies uses the weapons in Libya. One conflicts it is engaging in. For example a first move in a large-scale intervention of the recipients identified by Openfac- What it does not explain is the drive be- the Turkish state-controlled Yeni Akit in Libya in order to support the ‘Govern- to is for example someone personally hind this seemingly continuous consecu- posted a warning ahead of the invasion, ment of National Accord’ (GNA) in Tripoli placed under sanction by the UN (Salah tive acts of military conflict and diplomat- “Go and tell the unbelievers that the army against general Heftar. The GNA is for- Badi, p.25 & 26 of Openfacto report). ic escalations between 2013 and 2020. It of (Islam’s Prophet) Muhammad is back,” mally backed by the UN (which does not is the opinion of the writers of this pub- when Turkey invaded North-East Syria. stop any party from backing their oppo- Moving extremists to Libya and arming lication that it is essential to include the Similar rhetoric was spread during the nents). Heftar, a Libyan strongman, con- them hurts European security and un- situation around the Hagia Sophia to un- invasion of Afrin88. It appears to be more trols Eastern Libya and was, at the end dermines NATO. In addition, the GNA derstand the ideological agenda driving realistic to accept that the stated motiva- of 2019, on the verge of taking Tripoli. has signed an agreement with Turkey the events described above. tion for Turkish policy is the actual mo- Since early 2020, Turkey has shipped and that if it controls all of Libya, the GNA tivation. Given the recent history since flown between 10,000 and 15,000 Syrian together with Turkey will make a claim Ideology and consequences 2011 and foreign policy facts since 2013, jihadists to Libya. An extensive journalis- on the Mediterranean Sea between Tur- it is more realistic to assume that even tic investigation by Openfacto has been key and Libya. That would mean that the The above overview has focused on the in this time and age, and also in Turkey, published in “Die Welt” which shows in Turkish and Libyan claims would border facts as they arise from Turkish policy. there can be a government that is driv- detail that Turkey armed these jihadists one another. In this way, Turkey wants to However, this pattern of a sustained pol- en by an extreme ideology. There is no with heavy weapons83 84. This investiga- cut off the planned Egyptian/ Israeli/Cyp- icy over many years does not come with- rational reason to assume that this can- tion shows that these arms deliveries are riot/Greek gas pipeline that would make out an ideological agenda that guides not be the case in the 21st century. Since not limited to small arms. They included the EU independent of Russian gas86. and motivates this policy. The attitude of October 2020 there seems to be growing the deliveries of heavy weapons such as Tensions between France, Greece, Cy- many foreign ministries and diplomats realisation in Europe that this indeed the anti-aircraft missiles, armored vehicles prus and the Arab world on the one hand, in Europe seems to be that Turkey’s ex- case in today’s Turkey89. and anti-tank weapons. It is very rele- and Turkey on the other, have clearly in- pansionist drive and support for terror- creased, partly as a result of this claim. ism are seen in primarily secular terms of In an interview on Al-Jazeera broadcasted at 82 https://www.ict.org.il/Article/2565/ISIS_ This Turkish attempt to cut through a fu- Turkey’s economic or security interests87. 31 October, French President Macron stat- Strengthens_in_Iraq#gsc.tab=0 ture strategic gas supply line is one more Turkish islamist rhetoric that accompa- 83 https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/ 88 https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/219894/ji- plus210988121/Trotz-UN-Embargo-Tuerkei-sch- 85 https://www.dw.com/en/libya-are-turkeys-syri- 87 https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/06/03/emer- hadpreek-uitgesproken-in-moskee-in-hoorn (Jihad muggelt-Waffen-nach-Libyen.html an-mercenaries-a-new-threat/a-52329943 ging-from-pandemic-turkey-rolls-out-more-asser- sermon spread by Turkish-controlled imams). 84 https://openfacto.fr/2020/03/29/violati- 86 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/ tive-foreign-policy-pub-81963 & https://esiweb.org/ 89 https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/arti- ons-of-the-arms-embargo-in-libya-methodologi- why-the-turkey-libya-maritime-deal-is-ratt- pdf/esi_turkey_tpq_vol7_no3_nicholas_danforth. cles/29194/europe-is-losing-patience-with-erdo- cal-guide/ ling-the-east-mediterranean-1.8318515 pdf (examples of that approach) gan-s-islamist-rhetoric sallux sallux 16 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 17 ed: “I note that Turkey has imperial inclina- Turkey itself displayed this reality most tions in the region and I think that these explicit when the Hagia Sophia was imperial inclinations are not a good thing turned into a mosque by Erdogan after for the stability of the region, that’s it.”90 89 years as a museum. This marked a mo- ment when Erdogan wanted to make his The 2020 report of the Swiss Intelligence nationalist Neo-Ottoman agenda public Service (released 6 November 2020) de- to Turkey, the region and the world. With scribes Turkey’s policies explicitly. Its regard to the latter, something remarka- chapter on Turkey is introduced under ble could be noted. The English text with the heading: “Turkey: aggressive pursuit which Erdogan publicly motivated this of regional power” and this pursuit is de- decision differed from the Arabic text. scribed as ‘neo-Ottomanist’91. The report Where the English text maintains the ap- reinforces that this leads to destabilis- pearance of rationality, the Arabic text is ing actions by Turkey. It is noteworthy crystal clear about the actual agenda, but that the report describes Turkey’s policy it is also different from the Turkish orig- as ‘aggressive’. Even the German govern- inal text. An article in the Jerusalem Post ment (known for its soft line to Ankara) is describes this as follows: on the path to recognition that current Turkish policy is motivated by Islamism. “The speech, which was in Turkish, was SNA Militants onboard A400 In an answer to a Parliamentary question translated slightly differently to Arabic the German government stated that Tur- and English, apparently as a way to hide key has in recent years increased its sup- part of Ankara’s full views on how it has Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters have tries in that region96. In the ceasefire deal port for Milli Görüş, an Islamist group linked Hagia Sophia to a wider agenda. been transported from Libya, through Tur- that ended the conflict in Nagorno-Kara- monitored by German intelligence ser- In Arabic the speech says that turning key to Azerbaijan by means of Turkish Air bach, it was agreed that Armenia will vices due to alleged extremist leanings. Hagia Sophia into a mosque is part of the Force A400M transport aircraft95 . (source: open up a road between the Azerbaijan In addition the government also empha- “return of freedom to al-Aqsa,” essential- investigativejournal.org / Lindsey Snell) exclave (located between Turkey/Iran and sized in that same answer the links be- ly meaning Israel should be ejected from Armenia) and the rest of Azerbaijan. This tween Milli Görüş and Egypt’s Muslim controlling Jerusalem’s Old City where The intervention in Nagorno-Karabach means that Turkey will have a land bridge Brotherhood and therefore intentionally al-Aqsa is located. Turkey’s President can be explained with reference to Uz- towards the whole block of Turkic na- connected the Turkish government to the linked the decision to reviving Islam from bekistan as Turkey did not hide its wish to tions97. Muslim Brotherhood92/93. Bukhara in Uzbekistan to Andalusia in expand its influence over the Turkic coun- Spain. This terminology, linking al-Aqsa In a sense, Turkey seems to have a dream 90 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ in Jerusalem to Hagia Sophia and Spain, 95 “The men were taken to Turkey, forced to of combining the Ottoman and Seljuk nov/01/macron-criticises-turkeys-imperial-inclina- is a kind of coded terminology for a wider shave their beards and wear civilian clothes, and empires. It is an extreme nationalist and tions-as-row-between-countries-escalates then they began their journey,” a Hamza Division 91 https://www.newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/ religious agenda. In the Turkish transla- militant in Afrin said. https://investigativejournal. Islamist neo-Ottoman agenda that is attachments/63415.pdf ( p. 30-32,‘neo-Ottomanist’ tion the same reference to Spain does not org/turkeys-syrian-mercenaries-in-azerbaij- driving all of Turkey’s policies, foreign remark p.31) appear to be included as in the Arabic.”94 an-feel-tricked-as-bodies-pile-up/ and domestic. 92 https://www.duvarenglish.com/diploma- The proof for the used aircraft being a military cy/2020/10/27/berlin-erdogan-regimes-sup- transport aircraft filled with standard aircraft seats 96 https://asiatimes.com/2019/11/central-asia-an- port-for-controversial-islamist-group-in-germa- can be seen if you look at an empty A400M cargo kara-seeks-turkic-primacy/ ny-increasing 94 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/turkey- bay: https://www.aircraftcompare.com/wp-content/ 97 https://www.portseurope.com/azerbaijan-and- 93 https://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/ vows-to-liberate-al-aqsa-after-turning-hagia-sop- uploads/2019/10/Airbus-A400M-Atlas-Inside-Car- turkey-gain-a-direct-road-link-from-the-nagorno- btd/19/235/1923548.pdf (p.6) hia-to-mosque-634700 go-1140x696.jpg karabakh-war/ sallux sallux 18 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 19

The extremist Islamist agenda is particu- Erdogan is often repeating his desire to is used for that purpose107. It is clear ological agenda driving these acts have larly felt by all Christian communities and ‘liberate’ Jerusalem102/103. that the spread of extremism in Europe serious consequences for NATO and EU countries with a Christian majority that by Turkey is another way of undermin- security as well as stability in the region are in the crosshairs of Turkish military Given the realities described earlier, it is ing the security and stability of the EU and therefore a fundamental question interventions. In all cases they have been clear that this agenda is undermining the and NATO. One example is the Turkish needs to be raised and answered. victims of the genocide of 1915 and in common security of the EU, EU Member extremist ‘Grey Wolves’ organisation that sense, it is a continuation of these States and NATO. The spread of an ex- which is also operating in Europe and Will the West continue the existing way crimes. In all acts of aggression, these tremist agenda and jihadist forces in the recently attacked the Armenian neigh- of dealing with Turkey or will it take steps Christian and Yazidi communities have region, support for terrorism and aggres- borhood in Lyon, France108. In Germany in answering the extreme Turkish agenda suffered most. In many cases they have sion in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the Eastern concerns have been expressed in 2018 and destabilising policies? There seems been a specific target during the Turkish Mediterranean as well as Nagorno-Kara- over the ties between Erdogan and the to be a growing realisation that it is not invasions in Syria and Iraq and a clear bach are destabilizing the region and un- ‘Grey Wolves’ after he used the ‘Grey possible to maintain the integrity of the victim of Turkish support for ISIS. The dermine our security on many fronts. Wolves’ sign during the opening of the NATO and the EU if there is no action policies driven by this ideological agenda largest DITIB mosque in the country109. against Turkey. How can for example the have devastating real-life consequences. One other aspect is the growing evidence Erdogan showed again his support for EU maintain solidarity if the calls for ac- of a targeted spreading of this ideolo- the ‘Grey Wolves’ in February 2019 when tion from Greece and Cyprus are not tak- This ideological reality is indeed repeated gy among the Turkish communities in Turkey condemned Austria for banning en seriously? There is therefore need to in Turkey’s domestic situation. Political Western Europe, especially in Germany the ‘Grey Wolves’ sign110. At 2 November implement serious action to ensure that opposition has been jailed and removed98. and The Netherlands. The Dutch Parlia- 2020, France banned the ‘Grey Wolves’111 NATO and EU security and values are Freedom of the press and of expression ment concluded this in a special inves- At 5 November, Ankara vowed a ‘firm re- protected as well as human rights and has ended99. Erdogan has implemented a tigation104. In Germany there is a grow- sponse’ to that ban which underlined Er- stability in the region around Turkey. policy of creating an overwhelming new ing realisation that Turkey is using DITIB dogan’s support for this group112. number of Islamic schools100. There is no (Diyanet İşleri Türk-İslam Birliği) for this Sanctions are one way to counter Erdo- independent judiciary anymore101. This is purpose105106. The German government Answering the Turkish gan his policies. They may be able to add all a result of this extreme and author- stated at 21 October openly that Turkey challenge serious pressure but will they be suffi- itarian agenda that is felt in the whole is influencing the Germans of Turkish cient in practice? region. descent and presented this answer in This cumulative list of acts and the ide- the context of admitting that the DTIB Another often-cited option is the removal That it concerns the whole region can for 107 https://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/ of Turkey from NATO. Given all the de- example be seen in the fact that Turkey btd/19/235/1923548.pdf (p.5 see connection of scribed measures it may seem fitting and 102 https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-state-de- subsequent answers) is now openly supporting Hamas and partment-slams-turkey-for-hosting-hamas-heads/ 108 https://www.vice.com/en/article/epddna/tur- this publication will shortly consider the 103 https://www.timesofisrael.com/jerusa- key-france-armenia-grey-wolves-lyon practical feasibility. 98 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ lem-is-our-city-turkeys-erdogan-declares/ 109 https://www.dw.com/en/turkish-far-right-er- jun/05/three-turkish-opposition-mps-expel- 104 https://www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerleden_en_ dogan-greetings-cause-concern-in-germa- This publication will especially highlight led-from-office-and-arrested commissies/commissies/pocob ny/a-45721866 99 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-se- 105 https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/arti- 110 https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey- the fundamental question of wheth- curity-media/more-than-120-journalists-still-jai- cle187762562/Konferenz-mit-Muslimbruedern-In- condemns-austrias-ban-on-grey-wolves-salu- er governments in Europe and North led-in-turkey-international-press-institute-idUS- nenminister-setzen-Ditib-wegen-Radikalen-un- te-141230 America can still ask and expect demo- KBN1XT26T ter-Druck.html 111 https://www.france24.com/en/fran- cratic support for the ongoing assump- 100 https://www.reuters.com/investigates/speci- 106 https://www.normativeorders.net/de/presse/ ce/20201102-france-to-ban-turkish-grey-wolves-af- al-report/turkey-erdogan-education/ medienecho/40-presse/presse-echo/5606-dschiha- ter-defacement-of-armenian-memorial tion that NATO member states would 101 https://www.lrwc.org/upr-of-turkey-erosi- disten-als-elitetruppe-des-islams-eine-klare-ableh- 112 https://www.france24.com/en/live- protect Turkey in the case it was attacked. on-of-judicial-independence-and-attacks-on-la- nung-dieser-position-durch-islamische-verbaen- news/20201104-ankara-vows-firm-response-to- It is fairly obvious that this would not wyers-in-turkey/ de-in-deutschland-fehlt-von-susanne-schroeter french-ban-on-turkish-group sallux sallux 20 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 21 have popular and democratic support. ing with these transports114. French demands for tougher steps did One specific option in terms of sanctions We cannot expect that electorates will not gain a majority. That outcome is in- is a suspension or ban on arms deliveries. agree to risk the military of the respective It is close to impossible for individual sufficient given what is at stake in terms Suspensions of arms deliveries to Turkey NATO member-states in order to protect EU Member States to impose sanctions of EU security and European solidarity due to the Turkish invasion in North-East a totalitarian regime that has persisted on Turkey and in any case there is lit- as well as human rights and stability in Syria have however in reality often been in a campaign of rampant conflicts and tle enthusiasm ‘to go alone’ given that the region. It is very unlikely that such a circumvented by the same countries or the spread of extremism for years. A de- companies in other EU Member States ‘light touch’ approach will deter Turkey as have been silently lifted a few months velopment that has accelerated in 2019 would quickly fill the gap. At the EU level Turkey itself already indicated119. Overall later123124. The slow, costly and laborious and 2020. This reality regarding Turkey however a compromise will need to be the lack of action at this EU Summit is withdrawal of the F-35 production from is common knowledge in the respective forged between different interests. Some evidence of the limits of economic sanc- Turkey has however shown the limits populations of NATO members. Moreo- EU Member States will not feel the same tions through the EU. of the ‘arms suspension’ approach125. It ver, it can hardly be expected from our equal urgency and threat but will try to needs to be noted here that Turkey has militaries that they will risk their lives in protect their economic interests while US sanctions, if they were to happen, now sufficient capacity to build armed order to protect a dictatorship. In that unanimity at EU level is needed115/116. The might be more stringent and effective. drones that can match for example Rus- sense, Turkey has already made it impos- fact that arms sales suspensions have When the US imposed sanctions on sian drones126. Turkey could also decide to sible to apply Article 5 of the NATO Treaty been lifted within a year may be a telling Turkish Ministers over the jailed Pastor buy arms elsewhere which further limits and this publication argues that it is time sign of how long EU sanctions might last. Andrew Brunson, Turkey released him120. the effectiveness of suspension or ban- to come clean to the citizens of Europe It is unlikely that the US would indeed ning arms deliveries to Turkey. and North America on that fact. The outcome of the EU Summit at 10 place the same devastating sanctions on & 11 December was that some listings Turkey as it did on Iran. Given that Turkey The overall effectiveness of sanctions as Economic sanctions of Turkish companies and individuals in is still in the customs union with the EU security tool is disputed and uncertain as by EU and US are likely connection with the Turkish search and the US will ultimately need cooperation several studies show127/128/129. Publications insufficient test-drilling for gas in Cypriot and Greek with the EU for any serious sanction pro- referred to show that at the very least waters have been adopted and that the gram against Turkey that is focused on they need to be combined with other The most often cited approach to deal European Commission has been tasked overall change of Turkish behavior (and tools that apply pressure on the targeted with Turkey’s behaviour is economic to draw up options for sanctions that then not a single issue). In a sudden move, sanctions. As described in this publica- could be adopted in a next session of EU President Trump greenlighted at 10 De- 123 https://ahvalnews.com/germany-turkey/ger- tion, the EU has warned Turkey that it Foreign Ministers or Leaders of Govern- cember some sanctions against Turkey many-lifts-suspension-arms-deliveries-turkey-je- may face sanctions from the EU in De- ment117118. In the cited Reuters reports, but according to Reuters they were limit- rusalem-post cember 2020 if Turkish behaviour does EU diplomats called these steps ‘symbol- ed to Turkey’s defense officials, including 124 https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/ business/143995/belgian-companies-circum- not change. However given the struggles ic’ and ‘incremental’ Cypriot, Greek and the chief of the top defense procurement vent-arms-embargo-to-turkey/ at EU level over sanctions against Belarus agency121/122. 125 https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/07/17/ the question is what actual EU sanctions 114 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/turkey- turkey-officially-kicked-out-of-f-35-program/ against Turkey might ultimately mean blasts-eu-for-sanctioning-turkish-firm/1980998 126 https://www.defenseworld.net/news/27424/ 113 115 https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/01/ Did_UK_s_Defense_Secretary_Praise_Turkey_s_ in practice . The limited EU sanctions eu-summit-european-leaders-remain-divi- 119 https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-eu-er- Drones__EW_Systems_#.X9CtCNhKi70 placed on some Turkish companies and ded-over-turkey-and-belarus-sanctions dogan-idUKKBN28J17L 127 https://www.asisonline.org/security-manage- individuals as a consequence of the Turk- 116 https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/10/19/ 120 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-cana- ment-magazine/articles/2020/01/the-effective- ish transports of guns and jihadists to eu-sanctions-against-turkey/ da-45036378 ness-of-economic-sanctions-as-a-security-tool/ 117 https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-eu- 121 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti- 128 https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ Libya has not deterred Turkey in continu- draft/exclusive-eu-to-toughen-sanctions-on-tur- cles/2020-12-10/u-s-plans-to-sanction-turkey-for- ersd201803_e.pdf kish-drilling-draft-statement-idUSKBN28J1N6 buying-russian-s-400-missiles 129 https://theconversation.com/under-what-con- 113 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ 118 https://thearabweekly.com/eu-draws-list-tur- 122 https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-tur- ditions-are-international-sanctions-effec- oct/02/belarus-officials-eu-sanctions-lukashenko kish-targets-sanctions key-sanctions-exclusive-int-idUSKBN28K2TZ tive-147309 sallux sallux 22 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 23 country130. Even if the EU and US would track-record on human rights and the system and its activation and testing on indeed apply effective sanctions on Tur- rights of minorities has remained poor 16 October 2020 it is becoming clear- key, additional tools such as the one pre- even before 2011134. After Turkey invaded er that NATO needs to make a strong sented in this publication would still be Afrin and all subsequent escalations, the move in regard to Turkey (seen from a necessary in addition to these sanctions. debate on Turkish membership of NATO purely NATO perspective alone)140. The became more and more a mainstream described developments since 2013 are Moreover the EU High Representative issue135136137. in any case sufficient ground to take -de Borrell stated clearly at 22 November cisive action against Turkey in the NATO 2020 that the EU Foreign policy cannot There is nevertheless little appetite framework. As described, suspensions of ,,rely on just money and sanctions” but among most leaders of government of arms sales or economic sanctions may that the EU needs to ,,learn to use the NATO members to try to remove Turkey not have the desired effect and need at language of power”. This new mentality Truman signing NATO treaty from NATO. From a legal perspective the very least a strong additional meas- of EU foreign policy needs to arise from Credits: George Tames The New Yorkt Times there is no mechanism in the NATO Trea- ure that will immediately impact Turkish the EU Member States in order to be- ty to remove a Member State from NATO. security. come reality at the European level131. The application of the ‘Vienna Conven- tion on the Law of Treaties’ has been This publication will for these reasons The tool presented in this publication Clarity on Turkey and Article suggested but some NATO members are now focus on a middle road between a fits in that approach as it has one im- 5 of the NATO Treaty as road not party to that Treaty138. Removing Tur- total rupture and continuation of the ex- portant advantage in comparison with to curb Turkish expansionism key would require suspending or chang- isting policy that is now tantamount to economic sanctions. Informing Turkey ing the NATO Treaty which (from a legal appeasement. Appeasement is no longer that it will not receive any military help The recurring debate on Turkish NATO perspective) would require the support an option as Turkish malign actions are as NATO Member can only be done by membership and a road forward of Turkey which would not cooperate to gaining pace in 2020. A total rupture national Parliaments and/or govern- that end139. Aside from the legal impossi- without any leverage left would make it ments. It is therefore far less subject to a The debate on Turkey’s membership in bility there is a reluctance to create such very difficult for other forces in Turkey to process of international compromise. It NATO is by now a permanent issue132. a rough rupture in relations without any shift the country back to a more normal is in that sense a very democratic tool as Turkey entered NATO in 1952 in order to clarity over the future or leverage left. and democratic situation. So a middle it is one that can directly be applied by counter the threat of communism133. In road between extremes is needed that is those elected in a Parliament or Congress 1974 it became already clear how prob- However, given the Turkish purchase of at the same time firm and consequential or Senate. Security is an issue that affects lematic Turkish membership was when the Russian S-400 air defense missile the European citizens immediately (as we Turkey invaded Cyprus. Internally Tur- As stated above there is no question have seen in terror attacks in Europe) and key’s democracy was from 1960 to 1997 134 Arat, Zehra F. Kabasakal (1 January 2011). Hu- regarding the popular opinion in the therefore it is important that there are ultimately under control of the military man Rights in Turkey. University of Pennsylvania West over Turkey. The simple fact that tools that their elected representatives that in 1960, 1971 and 1980 took control Press. opposition against Turkey is seen as a can apply. This is why this publication fo- of the country. There was hope for change 135 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/world/ vote winner is a sufficient answer to europe/turkey-nato.html cuses on Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. for the better in 2002 but that lasted 136 https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/natos-turkey-ties- that question. That the support for Turk- only until 2011. Meanwhile the Turkish must-change ish accession to the EU has plummeted 137 https://www.ft.com/content/a2e545ea-f0f7- is indicative of the public mood on the 132 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar- 11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901 chive/2019/10/turkey-and-nato-troubled-relati- 138 https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey- 130 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at- onship/599890/ be-expelled-from-nato/ lanticist/sanctions-are-effective-if-used-correctly/ 133 https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_tur- 139 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/ 140 https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-warns-of- 131 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?ref=save- key_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en- sorry-lindsey-graham-america-cant-kick-tur- serious-consequences-as-turkey-said-to-test-s- d&v=1834969879983893 c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html key-out-nato-unilaterally-86461 400-defense-system/ sallux sallux 24 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 25 matter141. It is therefore no surprise that eign Affairs officials repeat this one it deems necessary, including the use of lies. It is not necessarily military and de- defending Turkey with western military phrase ‘Turkey, our NATO ally’. That one armed force, to restore and maintain the pends on the material resources of each forces is understood as something un- phrase implies a reality that does not ex- security of the North Atlantic area.’ country. It is therefore left to the judg- popular. However, in democracies it is ist anymore and now needs to be called ment of each individual member country widely understood that the military acts out. The fact that Turkey is called ‘a NATO The NATO website clarifies the precise to determine how it will contribute. Each to defend the people and is not outside ally’ implies that it can rely on NATO for meaning and working of Article 5142. Ulti- country will consult with the other mem- the democratic process. The principle of defense if it is attacked. That idea is one mately, NATO is the only source that can bers, bearing in mind that the ultimate parliamentary and therefore democrat- of the deepest commitments any nation determine how the NATO Treaty is inter- aim is to “to restore and maintain the se- ic oversight of the military is a given in can make. It means that a nation is pre- preted and therefore their clarification on curity of the North Atlantic area”. all western democracies and military pared to sacrifice its men and women in their own website is the most authorita- deployment is understood as ultimately uniform to defend another country. The tive source on this issue. From this explanation it is clear that there being subject to democratic control. The phrase ‘Turkey, our NATO ally’ implies is no automatic binding obligation to lack of democratic support for an actual that NATO states still have this commit- The NATO website clarifies that when the provide assistance under Article 5 of the defense of Turkey should therefore mat- ment to Turkey. Given all developments NATO Treaty was drafted, ‘the European NATO Treaty. Each NATO member state ter in dealing with the role of Turkey in since 2013, it is clear that Turkey no participants wanted to ensure that the can and will make its own decision in that NATO. This publication maintains that longer adheres to NATO values. It is time United States would automatically come regard. That clarifies that it is possible for it is at that point that there is a solution to inform our citizens and Turkey that its to their assistance should one of the sig- any NATO government or its parliament that provides a strong response to Turkey membership of NATO does not mean natories come under attack. The Unit- to inform its citizens, and Turkey, that that respects democracy without losing that other NATO members will sacrifice ed States did not want to make such a there will be no support for Turkey in the all leverage. their men and women if Turkey is being pledge and obtained that this be reflect- case it was attacked. For that there is no attacked. ed in the wording of Article 5’. The US in- need to change the NATO treaty or re- This publication maintains that it is dem- serted ‘such action as it deems necessary’ move Turkey from NATO. It is therefore ocratically responsible to clarify openly to It is often assumed that article 5 of the precisely to avoid any automatic duty to possible to take this political action to the electorate that if Turkey would ask for NATO Treaty means that there is an auto- aid NATO members if they are attacked. provide clarity on this issue. assistance in the framework of Article 5 matic obligation to defend NATO mem- of the NATO Treaty, no support would be ber states. According to NATO this is not The NATO website further clarifies the There is no provision in Article 5 that de- given unless Turkey ends and withdraws the case. following on the working of Article 5: nies the possibility to give this clarity in from all its acts of aggression and areas it advance. Given the tension that Turkey is now occupies. This would force Turkey to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty says: ‘The ‘With the invocation of Article 5, Allies creating with all its neighbours, it would reconsider its expansionist and aggres- Parties agree that an armed attack can provide any form of assistance they not be far-fetched to inform the public sive agenda and instead focus on its own against one or more of them in Europe deem necessary to respond to a situation. and Turkey before any escalation hap- security. or North America shall be considered an This is an individual obligation on each pens. This publication maintains that this attack against them all and consequent- Ally and each Ally is responsible for de- will have a de-escalating effect as it will Article 5 of the NATO Treaty ly they agree that, if such an armed at- termining what it deems necessary in the reveal Turkey’s vulnerability in the region according to NATO tack occurs, each of them, in exercise particular circumstances. This assistance and force it to change its behaviour. De- of the right of individual or collective is taken forward in concert with other Al- nying Turkey this support until it changes Time and again, US and European For- self-defence recognised by Article 51 of its behaviour will therefore contribute to the Charter of the United Nations, will 142 NATO website on ‘collective defense – Ar- the security of the North Atlantic area. 141 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/ ticle 5’: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/to- articles-reports/2019/03/05/eurotrack-it-was-mista- assist the Party or Parties so attacked by pics_110496.htm (on that page go to ‘a cornerstone ke-admit-romania-and-bulgari (Note that hypothe- taking forthwith, individually and in con- of the alliance’ and click there and scroll down to tical accession of Russia is more popular than cert with the other Parties, such action as find the precise explanation as cited in this publi- accession of Turkey) cation). sallux sallux 26 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 27

Article 5 of the NATO Europe’s security on a level on par with tle or no consequence to the subsequent mately carry the costs which is important Treaty as shield for Turkish Russia. acts of escalation, support for extremism, from a democratic perspective Therefore, behaviour military conflicts and the egregious vio- it is necessary to take such action as to The refugee crisis of 2015 is an example lations of human rights. There has been make clear to Turkey that it can no longer The Foreign Affairs status quo until now of how Turkey’s subsequent moves cre- an almost ‘blind’ blanket application of continue to be under the illusion that it is has been that Turkish membership of ated destabilization in Europe. Turkey Turkish NATO membership and a con- protected by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. NATO has been beneficial for the se- blocked from the beginning of the Syri- tinuation of the implicit application of A new balance of power between NATO, curity of Europe and NATO as a whole, an crisis the unity of the Syrian opposi- Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. the EU and the US on the one side and especially in the light of Russia’s expan- tion through blocking any cooperation Turkey on the other is needed to curb the sionism. Furthermore, the ‘cooperation between the officially recognized Syrian This has at least created the impression human and economic costs of Turkish against terrorism’ is still cited as a reason opposition and the (predecessors of the) that when push comes to shove, the foreign policies. Turkey can no longer be not to introduce real change in relation Syrian Democratic Forces and their po- NATO will defend Turkey, regardless of allowed to be in a position to blackmail to Turkey or apply real pressure on the litical representation. Instead Turkey fa- the Turkish realities as described before. Europe and NATO. Erdogan regime143/144. vored extremism. That policy guaranteed And indeed that message of continued the victory of Assad as the opposition protection is still the main message from Moreover, the purpose of Article 5 of the The idea that the West can cooperate with remained divided and created therefore most of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, NATO Treaty is ‘to restore and maintain Turkey in combating terrorism while Tur- a much larger stream of refugees from many in the State Department and in the the security of the North Atlantic area.’ key is moving jihadists from battlefield Syria. A refugee stream that in turn was diplomatic corps as the old paradigms Ignoring Turkish acts of violence and to battlefield since 2013 is in clear con- used against the EU in 2015 when Tur- from the 20th century continues to de- maintaining the illusion of NATO protec- tradiction. There is still an unwillingness key ensured that these desperate people termine their attitude and policies148. tion through Article 5 has produced the among many foreign affairs thinktanks overwhelmed the governance and politi- The fact that this is also motivated by opposite. At the very least it has not pro- and the diplomatic corps to understand cal capacity of Europe. This in turn creat- economic and business interests is not duced any result in terms of reigning in Turkish aggression as a threat to Europe- ed upheaval and instability in the EU. In denied149. Economic ties are used as an Turkish aggression. This fact alone is ev- an security on a par with that of Russia. addition, Turkish active and passive sup- argument to continue the current poli- idence that Turkey has concluded that its The message that Turkey is indispensable port for ISIS has had a massive impact on cy towards Turkey150. The problem is that behaviour enjoys protection which is in for European and NATO security is still Europe’s security. To various degrees the the benefits of these economic ties do contradiction with how the NATO Treaty repeated 145146147. However, the fact that other Turkish actions as described earlier not outweigh the costs that the taxpay- defines both security and its values. Turkey is smaller than Russia does not in this publication and agenda that drives ers are having to carry. The costs of the make it less dangerous for European Turkish foreign and domestic policy, sim- Syrian refugee crisis and ISIS terrorism, NATO describes its values and the NATO security. The facts since 2013 show that ilarly represent a threat to Europe’s secu- as well as other consequences of Turkish understanding of security in Articles 1 Turkey has already actively destabilized rity and stability. behaviour, need to be put on the table and 2 of the NATO Treaty: when it comes to relations with Turkey. 143 https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/01/29/how- The status quo opinion on Turkey has The question is whether the average tax- 1. The Parties undertake, as set forth in the far-can-turkey-challenge-nato-and-eu-in-2020- failed to present and understand the payer sees any of the benefits, as there is Charter of the United Nations, to settle pub-80912 144 https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Arti- extent of the seriousness of this situa- no question at all that the taxpayers ulti- any international dispute in which they cle/Article/1424345/ tion and its real consequences for our may be involved by peaceful means in 145 https://www.csis.org/analysis/turkey-and-na- 148 https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-tur- security.The communis opinio in Foreign key/ such a manner that international peace to-relationship-worth-saving Affairs continued to emphasize up until and security and justice are not endan- 146 http://crisesobservatory.es/why-does-the-nato- 149 https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/br- need-turkey/ very recently that ‘Turkey is our indispen- exit-news/europe-news/cathrin-schael-germa- gered, and to refrain in their internation- 147 https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikrafo- sable ally’. Turkey has taken this as ap- ny-turkey-special-relationship-90036 al relations from the threat or use of force 150 https://www.ft.com/content/ec8abaa8-d8f8- rum/view/USA-Turkey-NATO-Syrian-War-Assad-Er- peasement of its policies as there was lit- in any manner inconsistent with the pur- dogan 11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8 sallux sallux 28 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 29

poses of the United Nations. tal values will ultimately become appar- What is not factored in, however, is the bach156/157/158. The moment that Russia ent. Turkish agenda. The assumption of a knows that Turkey is vulnerable, it will 2. The Parties will contribute toward Russian takeover of Turkey would depend be possible for Russia to find a stronger the further development of peaceful As the pace of Turkish escalations is ac- on Turkey being willing to concede to balance against Turkey. Turkey however and friendly international relations by celerating, it is of the essence to make Russia. That is not the reality as Turkey will continue to depend on the West in strengthening their free institutions, by sure Turkey is very soon forced to return sees it. Erdogan described his agenda an economic sense. This new balance will bringing about a better understanding to maintaining its own security. when the Hagia Sophia was turned into a force Turkey to reduce its violence and of the principles upon which these insti- mosque; this is not a Turkey that is plan- escalations. tutions are founded, and by promoting Geopolitical considerations ning to be overtaken by Russia. The re- conditions of stability and well-being. ality since 2013, leading to many clashes Opponents of our stance will state that They will seek to eliminate conflict in There is already a change in the attitude with Russia on several fronts, also does Russia may indeed create a hybrid warfare their international economic policies and towards Turkey due to an acceleration of not indicate that Turkey would simply fall against Turkey once it is clear that Turkey will encourage economic collaboration Turkish escalations against NATO and to Russia. To underscore that, Erdogan will not be protected159. Even though that between any or all of them. European security interests151/152. How- argued that the support for Azerbaijan would be quite a stretch and very risky ever there is at the same moment still a was part of Turkey’s goal to get its “de- for Russia, it also would force Turkey to Emphasis has been added to those es- persistent belief that any serious steps served place in the world order.”155 change tack in the region and in its re- sential elements that have been violated against Turkey would decrease our secu- lation to NATO. It is clear that in any cir- by Turkey since 2013. The facts as de- rity due to a Russian ‘takeover’ of Turkey. Ignoring the actual Turkish agenda, pol- cumstance, Turkey would no longer have scribed in this publication have all played US Assistant Secretary of State R. Clarke icies, and acts while playing up the idea the means to threaten its neighbours and out in the sight of global media. Both Cooper recently told NATO allies, to do that Russia would overtake Turkey has would not be able to continue to shift ji- the ideology driving the Turkish agenda, what they can to “make sure that Turkey been the basis for the soft treatment of hadists to new battlegrounds. These two and the acts and policies carried out by remains in the West”153. There is at the Turkey. In that sense the fear that Turkey facts would bring immediate benefits to the Turkish state because of this agenda, very least a persistent conviction that Tur- would take the side of Russia is a theoret- the stability of the region. are in flagrant contradiction with Arti- key is a necessary ally against Russia154. ical stance. This theory has nevertheless cles 1 & 2 of the NATO Treaty. Therefore, We want to challenge these oft-repeated determined European and US Foreign Regardless of the reasoning described maintaining the illusion of protection for notions. policy towards Turkey. As a result, both here, it is still clear that there is no ration- Turkey in its current state is not contrib- NATO and Europe are now less secure. al basis in applying Article 5 of the NATO uting to the goal of NATO but rather the The scenario of a (gradual) takeover of Treaty to defend one threat against an- reverse as it is creating more insecurity Turkey by Russia assumes that Turkey Past facts and recent developments point other (assuming a Turkish/Russian clash). and instability. Turkey feels protected ‘at would be willing to concede to Russia, in a very different direction. Russia is The electorates will rightly ask why any home’ through the impression of being with the Turkish acquisition of the S-400 seemingly trying to find a stronger bal- NATO member state would risk its mil- protected by NATO and feels therefore system often pointed to as evidence. ance against Turkey as it is clashing with free to operate abroad. This publication Turkey in Syria, Libya and Nogorno-Kara- 156 https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origi- recommends to take away this impres- 151 https://www.voanews.com/usa/nato-allies-gro- nals/2020/10/turkey-russia-s400-tested-cracks-an- wing-weary-turkish-aggression kara-moscow-ties-show.html sion in order to stem the destructive 152 https://m.bianet.org/english/wor- 157 https://www.france24.com/en/middle- Turkish operations. ld/234736-merkel-a-decision-will-be-ma- east/20201026-russian-air-strikes-kill-dozens-of- de-at-eu-summit-about-turkey-s-eastern-mediter- turkish-backed-rebels-in-syria-monitor-says Ignoring human dignity and democrat- ranean-activities 158 https://npasyria.com/en/49821/ (Negotiations 153 https://www.voanews.com/usa/west-danger- between Russia and Turkey about Nagorno-Kara- ic values seldom carry costs in the short losing-turkey-us-warns 155 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-arme- bakh and Syria’s Idlib end in stalemate) term. However, as can be seen in this sit- 154 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opini- nia-azerbaijan-erdogan-analysis/in-nagorno-kara- 159 https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/in- uation, the costs of ignoring fundamen- on/2020/03/02/commentary/world-commentary/ bakh-conflict-erdogan-eyes-turkeys-place-in-wor- sights/28583/for-nato-turkey-russia-war-is-a-night- turkey-mediocre-nato-ally-russia-enemy-no-1/ ld-order-idUSKBN26S0JM mare-scenario sallux sallux 30 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 31 itary for that purpose. Defending an ag- not even been noticed by major western ters of security in that region171/172/173. That take the spread of extremism seriously174. gressive Turkey will not contribute to the media. The Arab world is nevertheless cooperation is (among others) aiming to However, if NATO, Europe and the US security of the North Atlantic area. The very well aware that Turkey is now even reign in Turkish threats in the Eastern allow Turkey to spread the same type of notion that Turkey is an ally against Rus- interfering in Lebanon through replica- Mediterranean and Middle East. The US extremism throughout the region, they sia overlooks the facts as described in this tion of creating a proxy movement and has long-standing security cooperation ignore that this does and will continue publication. Based on these realities we inciting civil unrest (anti-Armenian pro- with Israel, the Arab world and the SDF. . to impact our security. Communities maintain that protecting Turkey would tests)163 164. Instead of ignoring these con- NATO can consider to increase the exist- outside Europe and in Europe are funda- require to ignore the threat that Turkey cerns, NATO, the EU and the US should ing cooperation with Israel and enhance mentally connected. The spread of ideol- itself poses to European security. take them seriously. The Arab world is that on a case by case basis with the Arab ogy outside Europe and the US cannot be changing as can be seen in the peace nations that are now becoming allied artificially separated from the spread of It is important for NATO to listen more deals with Israel. The establishment of with Israel. In difference with the fixed the same ideology in Europe and North carefully to the region itself when it the energy cooperation between south- position of Turkey in NATO as member, it America. There is a need for political ac- comes to Turkey. The Arab world under- ern Europe, Israel and the Arab world will be possible to make progress on hu- tion that will respect our security and our stands Turkey as a threat and is imple- on 22 September 2020 cemented a new man rights and fundamental freedoms democracy above outdated concepts and menting sanctions against it160/161. They strategic reality165. part of the conditions for cooperation short-term economic gains. do not see Turkey as an ally against the with the Arab world. The real strategic Russo-Iranian axis but as a threat in its While Turkey is spreading destabilizing interest for Europe is not to hang on to The proposal that this publication own right. The Arab world rejects the activity all over the region and even to outdated ideas about Russia and Turkey makes as a concrete political action is Turkish nationalist use of Islam which is Africa166/167, the Arab world may be tak- but to ensure the security of NATO’s and that Parliaments of European NATO evidence that the rejection of Turkish ac- ing a more mature turn168/169/170. There is Europe’s southern flank and to counter Member States, the Canadian Parlia- tions does not imply that Islam as such existing cooperation by European NATO the further spread of extremism. That ment, and the US Congress and Sen- is a threat. The Arab world has an im- members with the Syrian Democratic means ending the pretention that NATO ate speak out in motions, proposals mediate and intimate understanding of Forces, Israel, and the Arab world in mat- will continue to cover Turkey’s extremist and resolutions that if Turkey will be Turkey and its behaviour. The Arab world agenda and behaviour. attacked, it will not receive protec- has not forgotten the Ottoman empire tion based on Article 5 of the NATO and understands Turkey’s ambitions of- 163 https://english.alarabiya.net/en/2020/08/19/ Treaty from that respective NATO Security-fears-in-Lebanon-after-reports-of-Tur- A call to action and courage ten much better than Europe and the US kish-weapons-shipments member state. This will be the case do162. The Arab countries see the Turkish 164 https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/neo-ottoma- The latest act of terror in France against until Turkey withdraws from all acts interference as an implementation of the nism-in-anti-armenian-riots-in-lebanon/ history teacher Paty in Paris on 16 Oc- of aggression, withdraws from Afrin neo-Ottoman agenda and do not dismiss 165 https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-joins- tober 2020, the murder of three people and North-East Syria, and ends trans- new-regional-forum-in-hope-of-selling-gas-to-eu- the rhetoric as ‘for domestic consump- rope/ in the Cathedral of Nice at 29 October porting and supporting of extremists tion’. They see the concrete malign activ- 166 https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origi- 2020 and the terror attack in Vienna at in battlefields. ity all over the region. One example has nals/2020/08/turkey-africa-opening-fuels-cl- 2 November 2020 were wake-up calls to oud-wars-libya-somalia-niger.html This publication already demonstrated 167 https://jamestown.org/program/turkeys-afri- that to realise this, nothing needs to be 160 https://www.arabnews.com/node/1744121/mid- can-eagle-trains-turkish-speaking-troops-in-soma- 171 https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/ dle-east lia-where-next/ mena/jordan-greece-and-cyprus-discuss-com- changed in NATO membership or the 161 https://www.foreignbrief.com/daily-news/ 168 https://apnews.com/article/dubai-uni- mon-approach-to-countering-turkish-interferen- NATO Treaty. It is therefore possible to saudi-arabia-imposes-official-embargo-on-tur- ted-arab-emirates-honor-killings-travel-is- ce-1.1125153 reassure European, Canadian and Amer- kish-imports/ lam-bce74c423897dc77c7beb72e4f51a23a 172 https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/11/29/fran- ican citizens and the men and women 162 https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/ 169 https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/sau- ce-egypt-medusa-exercises/ plus219126402/Grossmachtplaene-der-Tuerkei- di-arabia-fun-tourists/index.html 173 https://br.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-cri- Wenn-die-ihr-Imperium-wieder-errichten-wollen- 170 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/israel-mid- sis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN1H60LD 174 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro- bitte-schoen-Aber-nicht-bei-uns.html dle-east-european-ports-085432042.html pe-54581827 sallux sallux 32 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 33 who serve in the military that no sacri- For years the suffering of Kurds, Syri- fices will be asked to defend the Erdogan ac-Assyrians, Yazidis, Arabs and Arme- regime. nians due to Turkish violence has been seen as ‘not our problem’. This has given This will require political courage and the Turkey the signal that NATO will allow it need to see the situation as it is and, in to continue with any malign act in order some cases, to move against the estab- to achieve its expansionist goals. It is lished opinions and interests regarding more than time to give a very clear signal sallux Turkey. However, there are millions in to Turkey and the region that this will no ECPM FOUNDATION the region who are threatened at this longer be tolerated. ‘Sallux Publishing’ is the printing house of moment by Turkish violence or already suffering under it. It is clear from all the Sallux | ECPM Foundation realities described in this publication that We develop publications based on our research and the destabilizing and malign agenda of the research performed by our member- and partner the Erdogan government is real. organizations. Sallux means ‘salt’ and ‘light’ in Latin, and that’s exactly what we want to bring! Sallux pre- sents biblical based political Solutions for Europe by organizing relevant events, and the publishing of rele- vant analysis, ideas and policy options. Sallux Publish- ing books are available worldwide through our own online bookstore, and many third-party bookstores. Sallux activities have been grouped in four tracks: Future of the EU, Economy & Geopolitics, Life & Ethics and Christian politics. sallux sallux 34 ECPM FOUNDATION European security European security ECPM FOUNDATION 35

Source: syriahr.com About the authors Johannes de Jong, Director

Johannes de Jong has been working for Sallux since its start in 2011. He has been focusing on economy and internation- al relations with a specific attention to those who are quickly overlooked in the global economy and geopolitics. Since 2014 he has intensively worked with the Kurds, Syriac-Assyrians and Yazidis of Syria and Iraq with a specific focus on the developments in northern Syria.

The proposal that this publication makes as a concrete political action is that Par- Christiaan Meinen liaments of European NATO Member States, the Canadian Parliament, and the US Congress and Senate speak out in motions, proposals and resolutions that if Turkey Christiaan Meinen works for Sallux, the will be attacked, it will not receive protection based on Article 5 of the NATO Treaty think tank of the European Christian Po- from that respective NATO member state. This will be the case until Turkey with- litical Movement interest in geopolitics, draws from all acts of aggression, withdraws from Afrin and North-East Syria, and (EU) foreign policies, sustainability, and ends the transporting and supporting of jihadists in battlefields. military doctrine, technologies, and pol- icies. In addition, we recommend Members of the European Parliament and Members of Parliament of EU Member States to pursue an end to the EU accession talks with Turkey as well as any funding to Turkey connected to these talks. This publication describes how Turkey is undermining European security, which is incompatible with accession talks. In that light the Customs Union with Turkey can be terminated as well.

We see these actions as necessary measures as sanctions by the EU and US will likely be insufficient to enforce different behavior by Turkey. Ultimately we hope that all measures combined will realise a more secure Europe, NATO and Middle East. Did you like what you read? Please consider a donation! “Sallux has provided substantial and very valuable support to our promotion of the rights Your donation has real impact on of the family in Europe at the Council of Europe, European Society: every euro donated to a 27 Member States wide European institution Sallux will result in an additional 19-euro that rules over Human Rights in Europe.” subsidy from the European Parliament. Maria Hildingsson, Director, FAFCE, Brussels

Donate online or bank “Sallux has supported us to find our way in the transfer European Union and to reach out to European decision makers, and to create our common Bank transfer: Rabobank Amersfoort. declaration with the Yezidi and the Turkmen. We Reference: donation Sallux thank Sallux for their work.” IBAN: NL75RABO 0153731095 Rima Tüzun, Head of Foreign Affairs, BIC (SWIFT code): RABONL2U European Syriac Union

What others say Newsletter “Sallux is an excellent and badly needed Register on our website to stay informed umbrella body for similar minded Christian about news, events and publications organisations all over Europe. It is making a very important contribution to keeping Since 2011, the activities of Sallux Christian Democracy alive in Europe as a have been financially supported viable political idea.” by the European Parliament. The David Quinn, Director, Iona Institute, liability for any communication Ireland or publication by Sallux, in any form and any medium, rests with Sallux. The European Parliament “Our collaboration with Sallux has been is not responsible for any use that tremendously fruitful, and we commend them may be made of the information highly for their wise and strategic investment contained therein. in helping Christians to be more effective as salt and light in the European public square”. Contact Jonathan Tame, Director, Jubilee Centre, UK Sallux | ECPM Foundation Bergstraat 33 3811 NG Amersfoort The Netherlands +31 33 3040012 [email protected]

@Sallux_Official sallux SalluxThinktank ECPM FOUNDATION www.sallux.eu Towards a Relational Europe