The Syrian Army Doctrinal Order of Battle
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The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials. -
Syria: "Torture Was My Punishment": Abductions, Torture and Summary
‘TORTURE WAS MY PUNISHMENT’ ABDUCTIONS, TORTURE AND SUMMARY KILLINGS UNDER ARMED GROUP RULE IN ALEPPO AND IDLEB, SYRIA Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2016 Cover photo: Armed group fighters prepare to launch a rocket in the Saif al-Dawla district of the Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons northern Syrian city of Aleppo, on 21 April 2013. (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. © Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2016 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: MDE 24/4227/2016 July 2016 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 METHODOLOGY 7 1. BACKGROUND 9 1.1 Armed group rule in Aleppo and Idleb 9 1.2 Violations by other actors 13 2. ABDUCTIONS 15 2.1 Journalists and media activists 15 2.2 Lawyers, political activists and others 18 2.3 Children 21 2.4 Minorities 22 3. -
Nationalism in Ottoman Greater Syria 1840-1914 the Divisive Legacy of Sectarianism
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2008-12 Nationalism in Ottoman Greater Syria 1840-1914 the divisive legacy of Sectarianism Francioch, Gregory A. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/3850 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS NATIONALISM IN OTTOMAN GREATER SYRIA 1840- 1914: THE DIVISIVE LEGACY OF SECTARIANISM by Gregory A. Francioch December 2008 Thesis Advisor: Anne Marie Baylouny Second Reader: Boris Keyser Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2008 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Nationalism in Ottoman Greater Syria 1840- 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 1914: The Divisive Legacy of Sectarianism 6. AUTHOR(S) Greg Francioch 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. -
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
Russia Foreign Policy Papers Anna Borshchevskaya All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Author: Anna Borshchevskaya Eurasia Program Leadership Director: Chris Miller Deputy Director: Maia Otarashvili Edited by: Thomas J. Shattuck Designed by: Natalia Kopytnik © 2019 by the Foreign Policy Research Institute December 2019 COVER: Designed by Natalia Kopytnik. Our Mission The Foreign Policy Research Institute is dedicated to bringing the insights of scholarship to bear on the foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States. It seeks to educate the public, teach teachers, train students, and offer ideas to advance U.S. national interests based on a nonpartisan, geopolitical perspective that illuminates contemporary international affairs through the lens of history, geography, and culture. Offering Ideas In an increasingly polarized world, we pride ourselves on our tradition of nonpartisan scholarship. We count among our ranks over 100 affiliated scholars located throughout the nation and the world who appear regularly in national and international media, testify on Capitol Hill, and are consulted by U.S. government agencies. Educating the American Public FPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is paramount for the U.S. to conduct a coherent foreign policy. Through in-depth research and events on issues spanning the geopolitical spectrum, FPRI offers insights to help the public understand our volatile world. Championing Civic Literacy We believe that a robust civic education is a national imperative. -
Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’S Vision Yury Barmin, RIAC
Discussion Paper (4) Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’s vision Yury Barmin, RIAC Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018 1 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 52-member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. Omran for Strategic Studies An independent think tank and policy centre focusing on presenting an objective understanding of Syria and the region to become a reference for public policies impacting the region. Omran began in November 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey. It publishes studies and policy briefs on Syrian and regional affairs in the areas of politics, economic development and local administration. Omran also conducts round-table discussions, seminars and workshops that promote a more systematic and methodical culture of decision making among the future leaders of Syria. Omran’s work supports decision-making mechanisms, provides practical solutions and policy recommendations to decision-makers, identifies challenges within the Syrian context, and foresees scenarios and alternative solutions. Yury Barmin Yury Barmin, is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at MPG, a Moscow-based political consulting firm. He is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council covering the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. -
The Dynamics of Syria's Civil
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. RAND perspectives (PEs) present informed perspective on a timely topic that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND perspectives undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Perspective C O R P O R A T I O N Expert insights on a timely policy issue The Dynamics of Syria’s Civil War Brian Michael Jenkins Principal Observations One-third of the population has fled the country or has been displaced internally. -
Senior Sunni Defections in Syria | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / Policy Alert Senior Sunni Defections in Syria by Andrew J. Tabler, Jeffrey White Jul 5, 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Andrew J. Tabler Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. Jeffrey White Jeffrey White is an adjunct defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant and Iran. Brief Analysis The reported defection of a senior Sunni commander and friend of Assad, if true, would be a blow to the regime and an opportunity for Washington. eports that Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, a Sunni commander in Syria's elite 105th Brigade, has defected to Turkey R could be a sign that Sunnis are beginning to break with the regime years after being co-opted by President Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafiz. Pro-regime websites have published articles critical of Tlass and his extended family, indicating a serious split. The son of former defense minister Mustafa Tlass, Manaf would be the most senior combat unit commander to have abandoned the regime, and his action highlights the mounting strains on the Syrian army. The 105th Brigade is a component of the Republican Guard Division, considered to be among the units most loyal to the regime. Tlass's forces have been heavily involved in violent actions against the armed and unarmed opposition in the Damascus area since the revolt began, though his effective degree of command over the unit is unclear. -
The Factory: a Glimpse Into Syria's War Economy
REPORT SYRIA The Factory: A Glimpse into Syria’s War Economy FEBRUARY 21, 2018 — ARON LUND PAGE 1 After the October 2017 fall of Raqqa to U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab guerrillas, the extremist group known as the Islamic State is finally crumbling. But victory came a cost: Raqqa lies in ruins, and so does much of northern Syria.1 At least one of the tools for reconstruction is within reach. An hour and a half ’s drive from Raqqa lies one of the largest and most modern cement plants in the entire Middle East, opened less than a year before the war by the multinational construction giant LafargeHolcim. If production were to be resumed, the factory would be perfectly positioned to help rebuild bombed-out cities like Raqqa and Aleppo. However, although the factory may well hold one of the keys to Syria’s future, it also has an unseemly past. In December 2017, French prosecutors charged LafargeHolcim’s former CEO with terrorism financing, having learned that its forerunner Lafarge2 was reported to have paid millions of dollars to Syrian armed groups, including the terrorist- designated Islamic State.3 The strange story of how the world’s most hated extremist group allegedly ended up receiving payments from the world’s largest cement company is worth a closer look, not just for what it tells us about the way money fuels conflict, but also for what it can teach us about Syria’s war economy—a vast ecosystem of illicit profiteering, where the worst of enemies are also partners in business. -
EASTERN and WESTERN GHOUTA SARIN ATTACK INTRODUCTION 1. Chemical Weapons Attacks Were Conducted in the Early Hours of 21 Augus
EASTERN AND WESTERN GHOUTA SARIN ATTACK INTRODUCTION 1. Chemical weapons attacks were conducted in the early hours of 21 August 2013 on Eastern and Western Ghouta in the Syrian Arab Republic (‘Syria’). 2. The attacks on Ghouta, with the nerve agent sarin, are the deadliest chemical attacks in the Syrian conflict. 3. Evidence collected in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, and over the last seven years, demonstrates that the Syrian government carried out the attacks. 4. This document summarizes portions of an evidentiary brief supporting a criminal complaint filed by the Open Society Justice Initiative, Syrian Center for Media and Freedom of Expression, Syrian Archive and Civil Rights Defenders on behalf of victims of the chemical attacks on Ghouta. • First, this document details the use of chemical weapons on Eastern and Western Ghouta on 21 August 2013. • Second, it analyzes evidence supporting attribution of responsibility to the Syrian government, and identifies specific persons alleged to have had a role in the chemical attacks. • Third, it places the chemical attacks on Ghouta within the Syrian government’s broader strategy and deliberate violence against civilians in opposition-held areas. • Finally, it discusses the use of chemical weapons in these attacks as a war crime and crime against humanity. 5. The complaint calls on the Swedish Police Authority and Swedish Prosecution Authority to investigate the use of chemical weapons in Ghouta as an international crime, and to pursue an arrest warrant against the suspected perpetrators. THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN THE GHOUTAS 6. The chemical attacks on 21 August 2013 targeted two suburbs of Damascus. -
What the Tlass Defection Means to Assad | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds What The Tlass Defection Means to Assad by David Schenker Jul 6, 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS David Schenker David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Articles & Testimony hursday came news that General Manaf Tlass, a senior commander of Syria's elite Republican Guard -- the T troops most directly responsible for defending the embattled Bashar Assad regime -- had defected to Turkey. While the operational impact his departure on his particular unit may be inconsequential, the impact on the popular uprising could be significant. Tlass was a regime insider, a member of the ruling Baath party's Central Committee and a childhood friend of the Syrian dictator. His father Mustafa Tlass was for more than three decades the Minister of Defense to Bashar's father, and his businessman brother Firas was close to and profited from ties to the Assads. In short, the Tlass clan represents the Sunni Muslim establishment that has served and benefitted from the minoritarian, nominally Shiite Alawite regime. Comprising just 11% of the population, Alawites like Assad rely on the loyalty of Sunni Muslim officers and conscripts to remain in power. Key units stacked with Alawites have been behind some of the most egregious massacres of the uprising. But since the uprising began, Sunni troops - whether out of fear or dedication - have also participated in great numbers in the suppression the revolt. As the atrocities against Syria's mostly Sunni civilians have mounted, however, the pace of defections appears to be accelerating. -
The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S
ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security Issue The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the No. 394 Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S. Responses Jan 2016 Yossef Bodansky The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S. Responses Yossef Bodansky January 2016 Abstract Almost three months into the Russian military intervention in Syria and Iraq - a clear strategy has emerged. Russia is spearheading a regional allied effort to consolidate tangible gains - to stabilize the lines before Winter freezes the fighting. When fighting resume in early Spring 2016, the Jihadist forces will no longer be able to threaten the Fertile Crescent of Minorities and the buffer areas surrounding Shiite Iraq. Emboldened, better equipped and retrained - the forces allied with Russia will then be able to go on the strategic offensive under a unified master-plan. In mid-October, the Kremlin clarified that the Russian strategic-political objectives in Syria are to stabilize and consolidate the Assad administration as the key to defeating the Jihadist forces, as well as to compel the US-led West to accept and acknowledge this reality. For the Kremlin, all anti-Assad forces are terrorists. In mid-November, Putin returned to Moscow from the G-20 summit convinced that any attempt to deal with Obama was an exercise in futility and that a major face-off, even crisis, over Syria was only a question of time. Hence, the Kremlin resolved to seize the strategic initiative. Thus, the Russian military intervention has already had a profound impact on the region’s strategic-political posture. -
Significant Regime Defection in Syria | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / Policy Alert Significant Regime Defection in Syria by Andrew J. Tabler Sep 5, 2013 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Andrew J. Tabler Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. Brief Analysis embers of the Syrian opposition are correct in describing Alawite army general Ali Habib Mahmoud's M "defection" to Turkey over the past few days as a "blow to the morale" of the Assad regime. He is the most prominent military official to leave Syria since the July 2012 departure of Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, who came from a prominent family and was at one point close to Bashar al-Assad. Habib became army chief of staff in 2004 and defense minister in 2009. He was the first Alawite to serve in the latter post since Hafiz al-Assad relinquished it in 1972, after which it was reserved for figurehead Sunnis. He is well respected among Syrians for resigning in August 2011, when the regime ramped up its murderous attempt to shoot the people into submission on the eve of Ramadan; this came shortly before President Obama declared that Assad must "step aside." Although Habib officially resigned for "health reasons," it was widely rumored at the time that he differed with the Assad family's approach to the uprising. Habib has not been part of the regime's core for some time, though he remains sanctioned by the United States and EU for having served as defense minister (see Policy Watch 2122 and its accompanying chart for more on the regime's structure).