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Pakistan Equity Market Strategy 2021 14Th January 2021

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Pakistan Equity Market Strategy 2021 14Th January 2021 Fast recovery, but a long way to go Pakistan Equity Market Strategy 2021 14th January 2021 Next Research [email protected] +92-21-3222203-04 Research Entity Notification No.: REP-116 See last page for analyst certification and other important disclosures Pakistan Equity Market Strategy 2021 Table of Contents • Executive Summary………………………………………………………….03 Oil & Gas Exploration Companies ………………………………………………………………….32 • Sector Summary……………………………………………………………….06 Cement.………………………………………………………………………..………….……….……………34 Engineering - Long Steel………………………………………..……………….……….………........36 • Investment Strategy…………………….…………………………………..07 Automobile Assembler………………………………………………..…………….……….………….38 A swift turnaround in 2HCY20………………………………………………………….08 Engineering - Flat Steel……………………………………………..……………….……….………….40 Liquidity may continue to improve particularly foreign flows……………09 Fertilizer ……………………………………………………………………….……….……….………........42 Positive news flows expected in the short-term……………………………….10 Power Generation & Distribution……………………………..………….……….……….........43 …to be followed by rough waters…………………………………………………….11 Textile Composite……………………………………………………..……………….……….………….45 Multiples at significant discount on all counts………………………………….12 Initial Target: KSE100 Index 50,000, 14% - Much higher GDP growth • Top Picks ………………………….………………………………………………………….47 needed for significant multiple rerating…………………………………………..14 Habib Bank Limited (HBL)…………………………………………..………….……….….….….….48 Politics - Never a dull moment…………………………………………………………15 United Bank Limited (UBL) …………………………..……………….………….……….…….……49 Geo Politics - A major shift……………………………………………………………..16 Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC)…………….……….……….……….50 COVID-19 – Still hurting economies around the world……………………..18 Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL)…………….……….……….………………………………….51 Risk factors………………………………………………………………………………………19 Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK)……………………………………………..…….……….………….52 • Macroeconomic Outlook………………………………………………….20 Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF)…………..…….……….………………………53 Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU)……………………………………….……….…………54 Improved growth outlook………………………………………………………….…….21 Inflation – Raising its head again……………………………………………………..22 • Next Valuation Summary………………………………………………………………55 Reversal in the Monetary Policy stance is round the corner……..……..23 External account in a comfortable spot……………………………………………25 • Contacts……………………………….........................................................56 Fiscal challenges remain, here comes the IMF again…………………….....27 • Next Capital Limited | Team………………………………………………………….57 Key Economic Indicators……………………………………………………………….…28 • Analyst Certification & Disclaimer…………………………………………………58 • Sector Outlook.………………………………………………….………..….29 Commercial Banks…………………………………………………………………………..30 Price data as of Dec 31, 2020 2 3 Executive Summary Fast recovery, but a long way to go Post COVID-19 recovery surpasses expectations • Economic growth of Pakistan was already under stress with the taxation drive under the IMF program and high interest rates before the outbreak of the global pandemic. The subsequent lockdowns towards the end of FY20 resulted in the first in 6 decades, recession for the country where the real GDP shrunk by 0.4% in FY20. Aggressive and preemptive responses by both the fiscal and monetary policies with 625bps cut in interest by the latter and fiscal stimulus package including the long-awaited construction package by the former, resulted in a faster than expected recovery during the first few months of FY21. Index measuring large scale manufacturing recorded an increase of 6.7%YoY during Oct’20 with a cumulative 4MFY21 growth of 5.5%YoY. Real GDP growth expectations that were initially hovering between 1-2% have now been revised upwards with minimum growth estimates of 2% for FY21 that is expected to be followed by a growth exceeding 3.5% in FY22. Industrial and services sectors are expected to lead the recovery while agriculture growth is expected to remain subdued this year. Comfortable external account position in the near term • Healthy contributions from overseas Pakistanis is the main reason for the significant improvement in the external account position of the country with SBP’s reserves enough to cover over 3.5 months of average imports. Decline in international oil prices along with reduction in imports of services have also played a significant role while higher imports of food items restricted the positive impacts. After 5 months of straight current account surplus, it is expected to go in to deficit again during the second half of FY21 with resurge in international oil prices and increase in imports of capital goods and consumer items as economic activities recover. Remittances are also expected to normalize at lower monthly averages. Although the external account seems comfortable for now but going forward strain of current account deficit and increase in debt servicing would require external funding of the external account for which re-entry to IMF program is inevitable. That would not only secure the remaining tranches of the impending EFF program that Pakistan negotiated with the IMF in Jul’19 but it would give confidence to other donor and lending institutions that would greatly support the growth and development of the country. Accommodative policy measures to end in CY21 • Inflationary pressures are likely to resurge during 2HFY21 due to expected slowdown of the pandemic, and on expectations of a healthy economic recovery. We believe real interest rates that are currently in the negative territory will again come in the focus of the MPC. Inflation for FY22 will average close to 8% implying negative real interest rates. 10-year PIB yields already appears to have incorporated an uptick of 100bps in interest rates that are hovering around 10% vs. policy rate of 7% (3% premium to the policy rate, compared to 1.5- 2% on average). Continued spread and threat of COVID-19 and suspension of the IMF program may change our view all together. FATF – Largely compliant • Decision on Pakistan’s status after reviewing of the progress made so far is scheduled in Feb’21. The country has made significant progress and made various legislations and enacted various laws for compliance with the action points. As per the latest update, Pakistan was compliant with 21 actions points while partially compliant with 6, out of the total 27 action points. It is expected that the country would be removed from the grey list but even if it is not removed in Feb’21 plenary, it would be removed in the next plenary after any proposed reviews and audits. This would pave the way for the IMF program and comfort of other multilateral financial institutions and governments. 4 Executive Summary Fast recovery, but a long way to go Consumption led growth resumes but rate yet to pick up • The revival of growth that has surpassed expectations is likely to result in higher earnings growth for the corporate sector in general and for cyclical sectors including construction and related, autos and allied, consumer goods, utilities and banks in the short to medium term while the structural reform being undertaken under the umbrella of the IMF program would ensure across the board long-term sustainable all inclusive growth for the country. In the near term, growth rate is expected to remain low with counter growth and inflationary structural reforms that would be under taken if IMF program resumes. A growth of 4% and above in the real GDP is not expected earlier than FY23. Heading towards resolution of circular debt • Resolution of circular debt is a dire need for the overall progress of the economy of Pakistan and one of the key action point of the IMF. In the recent past a milestone was achieved where the government signed MoUs with various IPPs whereby reducing their capacity payments obligations, relaxing the exchequer, and devising a plan to release the outstanding amounts to the IPPs. In a most recent development that plan has been agreed in principle for partial payment with final modalities being discussed amongst the stakeholders. Remote chances of abrupt movements in exchange rate • Over the past one and a half years, the SBP has adopted a market oriented exchange rate policy whereby the currency rates are moving in-line with the demand and supply dynamics of the currency market. PKR appreciated from PKR168/USD to PKR160/USD (4.9% during 2HCY20) with the consecutive 5 surpluses of the current account and higher flows of remittances and in the Roshan Digital Accounts. The currency is therefore expected to follow the market demand supply dynamics and no abrupt movements are anticipated. KSE100 Index initial target is 50,000 @ 8x PER, +14% - Secondary target 54,000, +24% • While we acknowledge the fact that Pakistan’s equity market is trading at a discount in multiples on all counts, we would like to highlight that PER tend to hover between 6x-8x in periods of lower GDP growth rates (below 4%). A 2.2% GDP growth even after a recession year is although encouraging but the rate is still lower. In FY22 even the growth is not expected to exceed 4%. Based on this argument, we assign an initial target of 50,000 to the KSE100 Index this year. Our secondary target for the KSE100 Index is 54,000 implying an upside of 24% and a PER of 8.6x, which is close to its historical average PER of 8.5x. This target is based on Dec’21 TP mapping of our coverage universe based on a risk free rate of 11%. Smooth sailing of the IMF program,
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