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HASIL SURVEI Menunjukkan Dinamika Politik Yang Terjadi Selama Masa Pengambilan Data ▪ QUALITY CONTROL Dilakukan Terhadap 20% Sampel Yang Ada

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HASIL SURVEI Menunjukkan Dinamika Politik Yang Terjadi Selama Masa Pengambilan Data ▪ QUALITY CONTROL Dilakukan Terhadap 20% Sampel Yang Ada SURVEI NASIONAL “KUDA HITAM CAPRES 2024 DAN PERSEPSI PUBLIK ATAS DINAMIKA SOSIAL POLITIK PASCA 100 HARI JOKOWI-MA’RUF” GRAHA MUSTIKA RATU, SUITE 707 Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav. 74-75, Jakarta 12870 Telp : 021-83709208, 83709209. Fax : 021-83795585. CP : RICO MARBUN (08121379579), ADE IRFAN (082120014454) ANGGOTA AROPI (Asosiasi Riset & Opini Publik Indonesia ) 1 LATAR BELAKANG • Statement atau lontaran komunikasi elit politik beberapa bulan pasca pilpres 2019 turut menghangatkan suasana jauh sebelum pilpres 2024. 2 • Gesekan yang cukup hangat dan terus menerus terjadi di tingkat grassroot tentang pilpres 2024 TUJUAN • Untuk melihat kandidat yang patut diperhitungkan pada pilpres 2024 3 I. METODOLOGI ▪ POPULASI SURVEI : Seluruh Warga yang memiliki hak pilih ▪ SAMPEL 1.200 responden, dengan margin of error sebesar +/- 2,8 % pada tingkat Kepercayaan 95%. ▪ SAMPEL dipilih secara random dengan teknik Multistage Random Sampling dan proporsional atas populasi PROVINSI dan GENDER ▪ WAKTU survei: Pekan ke I-II Februari 2020 ▪ HASIL SURVEI menunjukkan dinamika politik yang terjadi selama masa pengambilan data ▪ QUALITY CONTROL dilakukan terhadap 20% sampel yang ada 4 II. DEMOGRAFI RESPONDEN DESA/KOTA MEDIAN BPS AGAMA MEDIAN BPS DESA 51,9 50,1 Islam 88.4 87.2 KOTA 48,1 49,9 Katolik 2.6 2.9 DESA/KOTA MEDIAN BPS Protestan 7.3 6.9 Laki-laki 52,7 50,2 Hindu 1.7 1.7 Perempuan 47,3 49,8 5 III. SEBARAN RESPONDEN DPT DPT NO PROVINSI MEDIAN NO PROVINSI MEDIAN 2019 2019 1 ACEH 1,9 1,8 18 KEPULAUAN RIAU 0,7 0,6 2 BALI 1,6 1,6 19 LAMPUNG 3,2 3,2 3 BANTEN 4,2 4,3 20 MALUKU 0,7 0,7 4 BENGKULU 0,8 0,7 21 MALUKU UTARA 0,4 0,4 5 DI YOGYAKARTA 1,4 1,4 22 NUSA TENGGARA BARAT 1,9 1,9 6 DKI JAKARTA 4,1 4,1 23 NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR 1,8 1,8 7 GORONTALO 0,4 0,4 24 PAPUA 1,9 1,9 8 JAMBI 1,3 1,3 25 PAPUA BARAT 0,4 0,4 9 JAWA BARAT 17,4 17,4 26 RIAU 2,0 2,0 10 JAWA TENGAH 14,7 14,6 27 SULAWESI BARAT 0,4 0,5 11 JAWA TIMUR 16,2 16,2 28 SULAWESI SELATAN 3,2 3,2 12 KALIMANTAN BARAT 1,9 1,9 29 SULAWESI TENGAH 1,0 1,0 13 KALIMANTAN SELATAN 1,4 1,5 30 SULAWESI TENGGARA 0,9 0,9 14 KALIMANTAN TENGAH 0,9 0,9 31 SULAWESI UTARA 1,0 1,0 15 KALIMANTAN TIMUR 1,3 1,3 32 SUMATERA BARAT 1,9 1,9 16 KALIMANTAN UTARA 0,2 0,2 33 SUMATERA SELATAN 3,1 3,1 17 KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG 0,4 0,5 34 SUMATERA UTARA 5,1 5,1 6 NAMA-NAMA YANG DIUJI POPULARITAS DAN ELEKTABILITAS UNTUK CALON PRESIDEN ADALAH: 1. Anies Baswedan 12. Khofifah Indar Parawansa 2. Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 13. Mahfud MD 3. Airlangga 14. Moeldoko 4. Andika Perkasa 15. Muhaimin Iskandar/Cak imin 5. Bambang Soesatyo 16. Prabowo Subianto 6. Budi Gunawan 17. Puan Maharani 7. Eric Thohir 18. Ridwan Kamil 8. Ganjar Pranowo 19. Sandiaga Uno 9. Gatot Nurmantyo 20. Surya Paloh 10. Hanafi Rais 21. Syahrul Yasin Limpo 11. Hidayat Nur Wahid 22. Tito Karnavian 23. Tri Rismaharini 7 1 BERIKUT INI ADALAH TINGKAT POPULARITAS 23 TOKOH Prabowo Subianto 93,6 Sandiaga Uno 83,9 Anies Baswedan 78,6 Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 67,9 Puan Maharani 55,4 Mahfud MD 53,6 Ridwan Kamil 51,6 Khofifah Indar Parawansa 47,2 Tito Karnavian 43,9 Gatot Nurmantyo 42,0 Eric Thohir 41,0 Tri Rismaharini 39,0 Apakah anda pernah Ganjar Pranowo 36,7 Muhaimin Iskandar/Cak imin 36,2 mendengar / tidak, ada “ Surya Paloh 35,0 tokoh yang bernama..? Moeldoko 34,7 Hidayat Nur Wahid 32,7 Airlangga 25,6 Bambang Soesatyo 19,7 Budi Gunawan 16,3 Syahrul Yasin Limpo 15,0 Hanafi Rais 12,9 Andika Perkasa 8,1 0 50 100 8 2 ELEKTABILITAS TERTUTUP 23 TOKOH Prabowo Subianto 18,8 Anies Baswedan 15,8 Sandiaga Uno 9,6 Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 8,3 Ridwan Kamil 5,7 Ganjar Pranowo 5,5 Khofifah Indar Parawansa 5,4 Tri Rismaharini 3,3 Jika Pemilihan Presiden Mahfud MD 3,3 dilakukan saat ini, Dari Gatot Nurmantyo 1,6 “nama-nama berikut ini, Eric Thohir 1,3 siapakah yang akan anda Puan Maharani 1,1 pilih menjadi Presiden Tito Karnavian 0,7 Republik Indonesia ? Syahrul Yasin Limpo 0,6 Moeldoko 0,6 Hidayat Nur Wahid 0,4 Bambang Soesatyo 0,2 Andika Perkasa 0,2 Muhaimin Iskandar/Cak imin 0,1 Budi Gunawan 0,1 Airlangga 0,1 Tidak Tahu/Tidak jawab 17,3 0 5 10 15 20 9 3 5 BESAR ELEKTABILITAS SAAT INI ADALAH: Prabowo Subianto 18,8 Anies Baswedan 15,8 Sandiaga Uno 9,6 Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 8,3 Ridwan Kamil 5,7 0 5 10 15 20 10 ELEKTABILITAS TERTUTUP 22 TOKOH 4 (JIKA PRABOWO TIDAK MAJU) Anies Baswedan 18,0 Sandiaga Uno 17,7 Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 9,7 Ridwan Kamil 6,8 Ganjar Pranowo 6,3 Khofifah Indar Parawansa 6,1 Tri Rismaharini 3,9 Mahfud MD 2,6 Jika Pemilihan Presiden Gatot Nurmantyo 2,6 dilakukan saat ini, Dari Eric Thohir 2,1 “nama-nama berikut ini, Tito Karnavian 0,9 siapakah yang akan anda Puan Maharani 0,8 pilih menjadi Presiden Syahrul Yasin Limpo 0,7 Republik Indonesia ? Hidayat Nur Wahid 0,7 Airlangga 0,4 Muhaimin Iskandar/Cak imin 0,3 Moeldoko 0,2 Bambang Soesatyo 0,2 Andika Perkasa 0,2 Budi Gunawan 0,1 Tidak Tahu/Tidak jawab 19,7 0 5 10 15 20 25 11 PRABOWO UNGGUL DI KOTA SEDANGKAN ANIES 5 BASWEDAN UNGGUL DI DESA ELEKTABILITAS PER DESA/KOTA Agus Khofifah Prabowo Anies Sandiaga Ridwan Ganjar Mahfud Tri Gatot Harimurti Indar Subianto Baswedan Uno Kamil Pranowo MD Rismaharini Nurmantyo Yudhoyono Parawansa DESA 17,3 17,8 8,8 7,5 3,7 5,4 5,6 2,4 2,5 1,5 KOTA 20,3 13,6 10,4 9,2 7,7 5,7 5,3 4,4 3,9 1,6 12 PRABOWO UNGGUL DI JAWA SEDANGKAN ANIES 6 BASWEDAN UNGGUL DI LUAR JAWA ELEKTABILITAS JAWA/LUAR JAWA Agus Khofifah Prabowo Anies Sandiaga Ridwan Ganjar Mahfud Tri Gatot Harimurti Indar Subianto Baswedan Uno Kamil Pranowo MD Rismaharini Nurmantyo Yudhoyono Parawansa JAWA 19,2 10,1 8,6 7,6 8,2 10,1 8,4 4,1 4,4 1,9 LUAR JAWA 18,3 22,2 10,7 9,1 2,7 0,2 2,1 2,5 1,8 1,2 13 KONFIGURASI ELEKTABILITAS PER TERITORIAL: • BANTEN-DKI: PRABOWO 34,7 %, ANIES BASWEDAN 17,3 %, SANDIAGA UNO 13,3 % • JAWA BARAT: PRABOWO 25,5 %, RIDWAN KAMIL 18,8%, ANIES BASWEDAN 11,5 % • JAWA TENGAH: GANJAR PRANOWO 32,1 %, PRABOWO 10,3 %, ANIES BASWEDAN 9,0 % 7 • JAWA TIMUR: KHOFIFAH 19,2 %, PRABOWO 17,8 %, TRI RISMAHARAINI 8,9% • KALIMANTAN: ANIES BASWEDAN 30,8 %, PRABOWO 21,2 %, AGUS HARIMURTI 11,5 % • NTB, NTT, BALI, SULAIINTIM: PRABOWO 20,6 %, ANIES BASWEDAN 14,9%, AGUS HARIMURTI 6,5 % • SUMATERA: ANIES BASWEDAN 27,2 %, SANDIAGA UNO 17,4 %, PRABOWO 12,0% ELEKTABILITAS PER TERITORIAL Agus Khofifah Prabowo Anies Sandiaga Ridwan Ganjar Mahfud Tri Gatot Harimurti Indar Subianto Baswedan Uno Kamil Pranowo MD Rismaharini Nurmantyo Yudhoyono Parawansa BANTEN-DKI JAKARTA 34,7 17,3 13,3 6,7 2,7 - 5,3 2,7 JAWA BARAT 25,5 11,5 8,9 8,3 18,8 0,6 5,1 3,2 1,9 1,9 JAWA TENGAH 10,3 9,0 6,9 7,6 6,2 32,1 1,4 4,8 4,1 1,4 JAWA TIMUR 17,8 7,5 8,2 7,5 0,3 0,7 19,2 6,2 8,9 2,1 KALIMANTAN 21,2 30,8 1,9 11,5 8,7 1,0 - 1,9 4,8 NTB, NTT, BALI, 20,6 14,9 5,0 6,4 3,5 - 1,4 4,3 1,4 SULAINTIM SUMATERA 12,0 27,2 17,4 10,9 0,3 0,3 2,7 1,1 1,1 2,2 14 8 PEMILIH PRABOWO-SANDI PILPRES 2019 LALU PALING BESAR MENYEBAR KE: PRABOWO, SANDIAGA UNO, DAN ANIES BASWEDAN. SEMENTARA PEMILIH JOKOWI-MA’RUF PADA PILPRES 2019 LALU, PALING BESAR MENYEBAR KE GANJAR PRANOWO, AGUS HARIMURTI YUDHOYONO, DAN KHOFIFAH INDAR PARAWANSA ELEKTABILITAS PER PILRES 2019 Agus Khofifah Prabowo Anies Ganjar Tri Gatot Sandiaga Uno Harimurti Ridwan Kamil Indar Mahfud MD Lainnya Undecided Subianto Baswedan Pranowo Rismaharini Nurmantyo Yudhoyono Parawansa JOKOWI- MA'RUF 7,3 8,5 7,5 10,1 7,0 11,1 8,5 5,2 4,4 0,7 9,7 20,0 AMIN PRABOWO- SANDI 33,7 23,9 10,3 7,2 3,6 0,3 2,3 1,3 1,8 2,6 4,0 9,0 DALAM SKENARIO 23 NAMA, ADA 20,0% PEMILIH JOKOWI-MA’RUF YANG BELUM MENJATUHKAN 9 PILIHAN. DAN HANYA 9,0 % PEMILIH PRABOWO-SANDI YANG BELUM MENJATUHKAN PILIHAN. 15 • PRABOWO UNGGUL DI PEMILIH GERINDRA, GOLKAR, PPP DAN PAN. • ANIES BASWEDAN UNGGUL DI PEMILIH PKS. • AGUS HARIMURTI UNGGUL DI PEMILIH DEMOKRAT. 10 • RIDWAN KAMIL UNGGUL DI PEMILIH NASDEM. • GANJAR PRANOWO UNGGUL DI PEMILIH PDIP. • KHOFIFAH INDAR PARAWANSA UNGGUL DI PEMILIH PKB ELEKTABILITAS PER PARTAI YANG LOLOS ELEKTORAL TRESHOLD SAAT INI Agus Khofifah Prabowo Anies Ganjar Tri Gatot Sandiaga Uno Harimurti Ridwan Kamil Indar Mahfud MD Subianto Baswedan Pranowo Rismaharini Nurmantyo Yudhoyono Parawansa PDIP 9,0 7,6 6,2 8,1 7,4 13,3 9,5 5,7 4,8 1,0 GERINDRA 41,5 25,8 10,1 4,4 3,1 - 1,3 0,6 1,9 2,5 GOLKAR 15,7 10,8 9,6 8,4 10,2 6,6 2,4 2,4 3,0 - PKB 12,6 10,1 6,3 3,8 6,3 8,2 14,5 8,8 6,3 1,3 DEMOKRAT 12,3 6,2 15,4 38,5 4,6 3,1 4,6 - 1,5 3,1 PKS 12,9 51,7 10,3 - 0,9 0,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 - PPP 22,6 6,5 9,7 12,9 12,9 6,5 4,8 4,8 4,8 - NASDEM 10,3 10,3 13,8 - 17,2 3,4 10,3 6,9 3,4 - PAN 45,0 15,0 10,0 15,0 - - - - - - 16 3 BESAR ELEKTABILITAS CAPRES DI MASING-MASING PARTAI SAAT INI PDIP GERINDRA GOLKAR Ganjar Pranowo 13,3 Prabowo Subianto 41,5 Prabowo Subianto 15,7 Khofifah Indar 9,5 Anies Baswedan 25,8 Anies Baswedan 10,8 Parawansa Prabowo Subianto 9,0 Sandiaga Uno 10,1 Ridwan Kamil 10,2 PKB DEMOKRAT PKS Khofifah Indar Agus Harimurti 14,5 38,5 Anies Baswedan 51,7 Parawansa Yudhoyono Prabowo Subianto 12,6 Sandiaga Uno 15,4 Prabowo Subianto 12,9 Anies Baswedan 10,1 Prabowo Subianto 12,3 Sandiaga Uno 10,3 PPP NASDEM PAN Prabowo Subianto 22,6 Ridwan Kamil 17,2 Prabowo Subianto 45,0 Agus Harimurti Agus Harimurti 12,9 Sandiaga Uno 13,8 15,0 Yudhoyono Yudhoyono Prabowo Subianto 10,3 Ridwan Kamil 12,9 Anies Baswedan 15,0 Anies Baswedan 10,3 17 ANIES BASWEDAN UNGGUL DI GENERASI Z DAN GENERASI MILLENIAL.
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