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Uganda's Fading Luster: Environmental Security in the Pearl of Africa

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Uganda's Fading Luster: Environmental Security in the Pearl of Africa Uganda’sUganda’s FadingFading Luster:Luster: EnvironmentalEnvironmental SecuritySecurity inin thethe PearlPearl ofof AfricaAfrica A Pilot Case Study Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability June 2006 “Yet it is not possible to descend the Nile continuously from its source at Ripon Falls without realizing that the best lies behind one. Uganda is the pearl.” - Winston Churchill, My African Journey, 1908. The Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability (FESS) is a public policy foundation established to advance knowledge and provide practical solutions for key environmental security concerns around the world. FESS combines empirical analysis with in-country research to construct policy-relevant analyses and recommendations to address environmental conditions that pose risks to national, regional, and global security and stability. Co-Executive Director: Ray Simmons Co-Executive Director: Darci Glass-Royal The Partnership for African Environmental Sustainability (PAES) is a non- governmental organization established to promote environmentally and socially sustainable development in Africa. PAES focuses on policy studies and assists countries to strengthen their capacities in four program areas: environmental security; sustainable development strategies; sustainable land management; and natural resource assessment. PAES is headquartered in Kampala, Uganda, with offices in Washington, D.C. and Lusaka, Zambia. President and CEO: Mersie Ejigu This report was produced in 2006 by the Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability. The principal writers were Mersie Ejigu, Christine Mataya, Jeffrey Stark, and Ellen Suthers. Additional contributions were made by field research team members Eric Dannenmaier, Joëlle DuMont, Sauda Katenda, Loren Remsburg, and Sileshi Tsegaye. Cover photo: Kabale District Christine Mataya Acknowledgement FESS would like to thank staff at USAID/EGAT/ESP in Washington, DC as well the USAID Mission in Kampala for their encouragement and support. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS ......................................................................................................................................2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................5 I. BACKGROUND AND APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT .........13 II. THE ESAF METHODOLOGY......................................................................................................14 III. U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY INTERESTS IN RELATION TO UGANDA .............18 IV. PATTERNS OF CHANGE IN UGANDA ...................................................................................20 Changes in the Environmental Landscape ........................................................................................................................................20 Changes in the Socioeconomic Situation............................................................................................................................................28 Changes in the Political and Socio-Cultural Situation......................................................................................................................38 V. ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY FACTORS...............................................................................45 Land Security: Seeds of Conflict ........................................................................................................................................................45 Food Security: From Seeming Plenty to Apparent Scarcity? ..........................................................................................................58 Energy Security: Approaching a Limit?...........................................................................................................................................69 Water Security: an Emerging Destabilizing Factor..........................................................................................................................75 VI. ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY SCENARIOS: WHITHER UGANDA?....................................88 VII. CONCLUSION: DRIFT OR DECISIVENESS? .......................................................................94 VIII. RECOMMENDATIONS ...........................................................................................................98 APPENDIX I: ESAF LESSONS LEARNED ..................................................................................105 APPENDIX II: PERSONS CONSULTED FOR THIS STUDY........................................................108 APPENDIX III: ESAF NARRATIVE OUTLINE ..............................................................................114 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................123 ACRONYMS ADB African Development Bank ADF Allied Democratic Forces AI Amnesty International CCC Critical Country Concerns CCO Certificates of Customary Ownership COMPETE Competitive Private Enterprise and Trade Expansion CPPs Crop Protection Products DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo DWD Directorate of Water Development EACTI East Africa Counterterrorism Initiative ECI Energy and Country Instability EFA Education for All EIU Economist Intelligence Unit ESAF Environmental Security Assessment Framework ESF Environmental Security Factors EU European Union EUCOM United States European Command EUREP- Euro-Retailer Produce Working Group-Good Agricultural Practices (EUREP- GAP GAP) Law FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FESS Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability GDP Gross Domestic Product GOU Government of Uganda IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IFDC International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute KDA Karamoja Development Agency LRA Lord’s Resistance Army LSSP Land Sector Strategic Plan MWLE Ministry of Water, Lands, and Environment NAADS National Agricultural Advisory Services NARO National Agricultural Research Organization NBI Nile Basin Initiative NEMA National Environment Management Authority NFA National Forest Authority NRA National Resistance Army NRM National Resistance Movement NTEs Non-Traditional Exports NWSC National Water and Sewerage Corporation OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2 PAES Partnership for African Environmental Sustainability PEAP Poverty Eradication Action Plan PMA Plan for Modernization of Agriculture PEPAR President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief PPP Purchasing Power Parity SPLA Sudan Peoples Liberation Army TFP Total Factor Productivity TOE Ton of Oil Equivalent UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics UEDCL Uganda Electricity Distribution Co. Ltd. UEPB Uganda Export Promotion Board UK United Kingdom ULC Uganda Land Commission UNDP United Nations Development Program UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNHS Uganda National Household Survey UNLA Ugandan National Liberation Army UPDF Uganda People's Defence Force UPE Universal Primary Education USAID United States Agency for International Development VSTM Vulnerabilities, Stressors, Threats, and Mitigators UWA Uganda Wildlife Authority WCS Wildlife Conservation Society WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization WRI World Resources Institute WWF World Wildlife Fund 3 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. Background and Approach to Environmental Security The Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability (FESS) is a public policy foundation established to advance knowledge and provide effective solutions for key environmental concerns that pose risks to national, regional, and global security. With Congressional support, and through a grant from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), FESS has developed the Environmental Security Assessment Framework (ESAF), a research methodology that uses a consistent, formalized analysis to construct policy-relevant recommendations that address potentially destabilizing environmental conditions. At USAID’s request, FESS has undertaken a series of three country-level environmental security assessment pilot case studies. The first pilot study focused on Nepal and was completed in the spring of 2004. The second case study dealt with environmental security in the Dominican Republic and was completed in the spring of 2005. Undertaken in collaboration with the Partnership for African Environmental Sustainability (PAES), the findings of the third case study, on Uganda, are the subject of the present report. In each case, the environmental security assessment has proceeded on two levels: as a field test of the ESAF methodology and as a focused country study aimed at producing specific policy recommendations for decision-makers. Study Methodology and Process An environmental security assessment examines environmental and natural resource issues as central questions and core analytic variables. However, the conceptual touchstone and key dependent variable is security, whether that of the individual (human security), community, nation, or region. The ESAF is a tool for informed policy decision-making that seeks: a) to identify risks that arise as a result of the confluence of environmental variables and political, economic, and societal factors; and b) to evaluate the implications of these risks. It facilitates the setting of clear priorities, promotes the development of effective and
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