OutlookTHE AGENDA AHEAD

Parsing Mixed Signals What the exit polls and election results signal about the prospects for deal-making on the other side of the fiscal cliff ISTOCKPHOTO

www.cq.com | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | CQ WEEKLY 2459

46outlook-agenda-cover layout.indd 2459 12/7/2012 5:30:52 PM Outlook Obama’s Position Of Advantage Despite some mixed messages from voters, he starts his second term with the policy playing field tilted his way

By DaviD Hawkings odern American history is replete with misunderstood or mismanaged re-election mandates. MRichard Nixon carried 49 states in 1972, but he was forced to resign less than two years afterward. Bill Clinton, by contrast, won his second term with less than half the popular vote, but rebounded from his own impeachment scandal to win 55 percent of the congressional roll calls he cared about during his final year in office. And after George W. Bush got 12 million more votes the sec- ond time than the first, he declared, “I have political capital, and I intend to spend it.” Yet he never got so much as a committee vote for the Social Security private accounts proposal that he labeled as his prin- cipal second-term domestic priority. Myriad tangible and not so measurable factors REACHING OUT: Boehner, at the White House to open budget talks after the election, says the results were as much a mandate for the House GOP as for the president. Obama doesn’t plan to see it that way. played into what each of those presidents focused on after they were returned to office, and how much of their second of this month — almost all the political coin the voters gave him in administration agendas ended up in the law books. What’s straightfor- pursuit of a singular goal. That goal, articulated during the campaign, ward, though, is that there is no reliable correlation between the out- is to increase taxes on the richest 4 million Americans next year as a come of an election and a president’s subsequent legislative leverage. down payment on a plan to slow the growth of the federal debt, while Thus, it’s maybe not surprising that Barack Obama — who arranged retaining historically low tax rates for everyone else. Obama’s presumed a series of dinners with presidential historians after he first moved into strategic calculation is that, if he can persuade Republicans to get far the White House, so he might better apply lessons from his predeces- enough outside their ideological comfort zone to accept that sort of sors to his own strategy for success — hasn’t been inclined to claim tax increase now, he will have proved his ability to dominate whatever any sort of sweeping permission from the electorate to remake federal policy debates develop in the next year. policy for the next four years, or even the next two. For their part, GOP congressional leaders have settled on a tone Obama is, after all, the first president elected to a second term with of defiance about the meaning of the election — asserting that there a smaller share of both the popular and Electoral College votes than should be power parity in Washington between a re-elected president he won the first time out. And, for at least the 113th Congress, he will and a retained House majority. “The American people re-elected him, still have to sell his ideas to a 54 percent-Republican House and a Sen- and they re-elected us,” Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, told a cau- ate where the GOP has more than the 40 votes needed to block him cus of his fellow Republican House members last week. “That’s not a at most every turn. mandate to raise tax rates. It’s a mandate to work together.” When asked about a mandate at his postelection news conference, he defined it quite vaguely: “To help middle-class families and families Mixed Messages that are working hard to try to get into the middle class.” Obama has Boehner’s claim of equivalence may prove to be overstated, either also signaled that he views his newfound political capital as highly during the final wrangling over the proper way to walk the govern- perishable. It’s why he signaled a readiness to lay out — before the end ment back from the fiscal cliff at the end of 2012, or sometime early OLIVIER DOULIERY/GETTY IMAGES DOULIERY/GETTY OLIVIER

2460 CQ WEEKLY | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | www.cq.com

46outlook-agenda layout.indd 2460 12/7/2012 5:34:06 PM OUTLOOK in the new year. EXIT POLL $100,000 last year, Obama won by 10 points; By then, there will have been as many com- How Segments among the richer remainder, Romney won by prehensive parsings of the Nov. 6 results as Of the Country Voted 10 points. there are think tanks, advocacy groups, lobby shops, political consultants, campaign orga- Obama Romney going obaMa’s Way nizations and elected officials. What they will Gender That see-saw view from inside the polling have gleaned — not only from the results of Male 45% 52% aside, in the end the incumbent won an elec- the closest and most policy-focused congres- Female 55 44 tion that both sides portrayed as offering a sional campaigns, but also from the presiden- very clear choice — and with a decisive 332 tial exit polls that provide a once-every-four- Age electoral votes and a popular vote margin ap- years touchstone for public opinion about the 18-29 60 37 proaching 5 million. As Obama was doing so, country’s problems and priorities — will more 30-44 52 45 his fellow Democrats expanded their numbers or less decide the 2013 legislative agenda. in Congress, adding two more seats to their 45-64 47 51 It is absolutely true this time, as it has been Senate majority and cutting eight seats out of in every election, that the voters sent mixed 65+ 44 56 the GOP majority muscle in the House. On messages with the candidates they chose and Race/Ethnicity balance, the country voted to tip the govern- the views they espoused. Nevada’s electoral White 39 59 ment Obama’s way. Not the same way it had votes went to Obama by a comfortable 7 per- four years ago, but enough so that for at least Black 93 6 centage points, but Republican Dean Heller the next two years he will begin every debate he survived to win a full term in the Senate. Hispanic 71 27 chooses to engage from a position of strength. Mitt Romney carried Indiana by 10 points, Asian 73 26 Obama should have no trouble getting but hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers split permission from the Senate to remake the Family income their ticket and chose by 6 points Democratic Cabinet to his liking next year — assuming he Rep. Joe Donnelly to serve in the Senate — Under $100,000 54 44 shies away from the fight he’s been tempted to where his presence in the majority caucus in $100,000 or more 44 54 have by nominating U.N. Ambassador Susan 2013 and his vote will be crucial to advancing Religious-service attendance E. Rice to be secretary of State. But even if he Obama’s agenda. does, her Republican critics might conclude Weekly 39 59 The seeming fickleness of voters extends they should back off, especially if the president to the most deeply help ideological beliefs. Occasionally 55 43 picks her in the afterglow of a budget deal that A 51 percent majority told the exit pollsters Never 62 34 is viewed by the public as a triumph for him.

they agree that “government is doing too Location Legislation to codify such a deal — to detail many things better left to businesses and any new limitations on entitlements, revamp Cities over 50,000 62 36 individuals,” a near echo of a central applause the tax code, specify restraints on Pentagon line in the Romney stump speech, but a quar- Suburbs 48 50 spending and maybe even to stimulate the ter of those same people voted for Obama Small town/rural 39 59 economy and spur job creation — looks des- anyway. Three in five voters said abortion tined to dominate at least the first half of 2013. SOURCE: All exit polling in this package was conducted by Edison should be legal in all or most cases, a core Research and is based on questionnaires completed on Nov. 6, After that, the growing expectation is that of the president’s socially liberal view, but 2012 by 26,565 voters in 350 randomly chosen precincts. Obama will declare his top domestic priority almost one-third of those same people voted for the year is an overhaul of the immigration for Romney nonetheless. system. That expectation is founded on the At the same time, it’s true that the president and his challenger assumption that Obama’s disproportionate share of the Hispanic staked out bases of support in starkly different halves of the electorate, vote, and the GOP’s desire to improve its fortunes with the nation’s their victories lining up on opposite sides of such basic demographic fastest-growing ethnic group, will give him at least a decent chance to fault lines in a way suggesting no early end to so many of the county’s win the creation of a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million people almost-right-down-the-middle divides. now in the country illegally. Obama won among women by 9 points; Romney won among men And as those measures are being written, the president looks ready by 7 points. Obama won the younger-than-40-vote by double digits; to maneuver at the edges on two of his first-term priorities, pushing Romney was preferred by the two-thirds of voters older than that, but more on the regulatory front than at the Capitol to lock-in the historic by narrower (although still clear) margins. Romney won the white victory he’s already won on health care and to put a somewhat greener vote by 20 points, but Obama racked up even more lopsided margins cast on energy production. among African-Americans, Latinos and Asians. Republicans insist that Nov. 6 provided no mandate to the presi- Romney was the heavy favorite in rural America, while Obama dent for what they regard as an ideological left turn. And Obama has triumphed in the cities. Interestingly, the suburbs split. Romney been careful not to make any claims about his newfound authority carried the two-fifths of the electorate who are weekly churchgoers from the voters. But that doesn’t mean his plans for a second term by 20 points; Obama carried the two-fifths of the electorate who are are in low gear, or that the White House won’t push the GOP at occasional worshippers by 12 points, but also won those who never every opportunity. attend services by 2-to-1. Among the seven in 10 voters in families that made less than David Hawkings is editor of the CQ Roll Call Daily Briefing. OLIVIER DOULIERY/GETTY IMAGES DOULIERY/GETTY OLIVIER

www.cq.com | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | CQ WEEKLY 2461

46outlook-agenda layout.indd 2461 12/7/2012 5:34:07 PM OUTLOOK

T AXES A New Look at an Old Policy Elections prompt Republicans to reconsider long-held doctrine

BY SAM GOLDFARB EXIT POLL ness. “I’m not worried about Grover and the For more than three decades now, the Re- Income tax rates should … pledge,” Pat Tiberi of Ohio, a House Ways and publican Party has stood proudly not only for Means member, told reporters the other day. low taxes but also for lowering taxes, on the Where Republicans go from here is not en- grounds that each new tax cut will inevitably Not Increase for all tirely mysterious. There are old models to fol- lead to more and more economic growth. increase 13% low, including the out-of-fashion form of fiscal And that platform worked well enough po- for conservatism that places greater emphasis on anyone 35% litically that Republicans kept running on it, prudent spending and balanced budgets than in every midterm and presidential year. But Increase on opposing additional revenue. In addition, there are signs that this year’s election has 47% only on the party could move — to a certain extent, it al- 5% income changed things. Don’t know over ready has — in a more populist direction. Many Among conservatives, there are certainly $250,000 Republicans campaigned this year in favor of those who argue that a more appealing na- keeping tax levels the same while restructuring tional candidate or a softer stance on immi- the IRS code in a way that would lower rates gration is all Republicans need to win the next presidential election and eliminate a broad swath of (so far unspecified) credits and deduc- and gain more power in Congress. But there are plenty of others who tions. This call for a tax overhaul was not altogether successful in the privately or publicly consider the party’s position on taxes to be at the campaign — it left candidates vulnerable to suspicions that their aim was root of its problems — the reason why it is viewed by a dangerously large to get more money from the middle class while asking even less from percentage of voters as uncompromising, unserious about solving the the rich — but it has committed the party to a top 2013 legislative goal. nation’s fiscal shortcomings and out to protect the rich at the expense In the aftermath of the election, Republicans have re-emphasized of the middle class. their commitment to rolling back tax breaks, particularly for the The results of the election are unquestionably concerning for Re- well-to-do. The goal seems to be to tap a sentiment prevalent in the publicans. Despite a weak economy and high unemployment, Presi- campaign season — the sense that a small group of super-rich enjoy dent Barack Obama won a second term with a consistent, clear com- outsized sway over the political process at a time when the country as a mitment to raising taxes on the richest 2 percent of Americans at the whole still struggles. (This was the election, after all, in which the GOP end of the year. Delivering pretty much the same message, Democrats presidential nominee’s own low tax effective rate was almost as much significantly outpaced their Senate expectations, gaining two seats, and of an issue as the tax policies he advocated.) picked up a respectable, if not spectacular, eight seats in the House. Below the top of the ticket, candidates of both parties derided their Beyond exit poll numbers that showed a majority of voters agreeing opponents as overprivileged, out of touch and beholden to special with Obama’s position on taxes, there are other, perhaps even more interests. Rep. Denny Rehberg, the Republican widely expected to worrisome poll results for Republicans to consider that also relate to take the Senate seat Jon Tester holds in Montana, charged at one taxes. For instance, 53 percent labeled Mitt Romney’s policies as favor- debate that the incumbent Democrat had taken money from credit ing the rich and only 34 percent said he was mainly about helping the card companies and “carried legislation on behalf of those industries.” middle class. (Asked about Obama, 75 percent viewed his policies as Tester emphasized his down-home roots, stood firm on his intention generally favoring the middle class or the poor.) to support raising some taxes and won by a clear-cut 4 points. Considering those numbers, it is not surprising that Republicans are Across the border in North Dakota, Democratic former state attor- starting to show some flexibility. Almost as soon as Obama had given ney general Heidi Heitkamp scored an even unlikelier victory to claim his victory speech, House Speaker John A. Boehner signaled his willing- an open Senate seat over Republican Rep. Rick Berg. Her campaign, ness to raise taxes, if not income tax rates, scaling back deductions and however, helped demonstrate the challenges facing Congress if it does credits for the rich. As Republicans lined up behind Boehner, it was attempt a tax overhaul next year. While calling for a fairer code with fairly clear they were readying for a clean break with Grover Norquist, fewer loopholes, Heitkamp touted her commitment to the state’s energy whose famous anti-tax pledge is supposed to prevent lawmakers from industry, speaking favorably of tax breaks for oil and natural gas com- backing any sort of tax increase. panies as well as wind energy producers. Like many other Democrats, Many signers have disavowed the document with apparent eager- she also promised to “never eliminate the mortgage interest deduction.”

2462 CQ WEEKLY | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | www.cq.com

46outlook-agenda-taxes layout.indd 2462 12/7/2012 5:35:25 PM OUTLOOK

J OBS Democrats Take the Lead Elections gave the party the upper hand in negotiations

BY BEN WEYL EXIT POLL touting those same economic themes. “If we By the end of this year’s bitterly divisive Which is the biggest level the playing field for small and startup campaign, there was at least one four-letter economic problem facing businesses and invest in the infrastructure and word that had been uttered, at least in public, people like you? workforce they need to succeed, we can create by every major-party candidate running for jobs and strengthen the economy right away federal office: jobs. With the national unem- The housing market while guaranteeing our competitiveness for

ployment rate hovering just below 8 percent, 8% Unemployment the long term,” he said during a stop two days Taxes Democrats and Republicans alike were pro- 14% before the election in the fast-growing Wash- moting themselves as the more reliable spurs Don’t know 38% ington suburbs — an echo, of sorts, to Obama’s of job creation. earlier call to “win the future.” In the end, most voters decided they be- In suburban Chicago, Democratic business 37% lieved Barack Obama and his party were more Rising prices consultant Brad Schneider denied a second likely to deliver. Unemployment was the top term to Robert Dold, another small-business economic concern for voters, according to the owner (a pest control firm) who sought to mar- national exit poll, and of the nearly two in five voters who cited the ket himself as a moderate and independent-minded Republican. In a issue, the president won by a solid 10-point margin. House district redrawn to be more Democratic, Schneider hammered Obama nodded to this dynamic at his first news conference after the incessantly at Dold for supporting the House fiscal blueprint drafted election. “Right now, our economy is still recovering from a very deep by Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the GOP vice presidential nominee. and damaging crisis, so our top priority has to be jobs and growth,” he Still, GOP leaders contend they were rewarded for their stances on said. Later, asked about his mandate for a second term, he said, “I’ve got the issues, including job creation. “The American people responded one mandate: I’ve got a mandate to help middle-class families and fam- to two years of House Republican leadership by sending us back with ilies that have been working hard to try to get into the middle class.” a strong majority,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said in a post- For the president and his fellow Democrats who will remain in con- election letter to colleagues. “It is clear that our efforts to improve the trol of the Senate, that means putting forth an agenda heavy on public economy and create the conditions for job growth were well-received.” investment, paid for in part by more taxes on high-income earners. Right-sizing the federal government so that free-enterprise can more The GOP-controlled House, with a tea party contingent still strongly easily flourish is the way the GOP describes its legislative agenda for opposed to rising government spending, is likely to push back, but next year, with an overhaul and simplification of the tax code a pri- they’ll be doing it on less friendly terrain. Although Republicans claim mary objective. Republicans hope to lock in a process for an IRS rules they won their own mandate by retaining the House, the ground has rewrite as part of any budget agreement this month. Cantor signaled clearly shifted since November. There is even talk about another round that House Republicans would also push narrower measures to create of economic stimulus spending — words that all but vanished from the jobs, including bills to streamline regulations on capital investments, Washington lexicon after the GOP wave in the 2010 midterm election. consolidate and improve job-training programs and target investments Obama says he’ll pursue the same policies in his second term that he in scientific research and development. He also called for overhauling touted on the stump. At his news conference he mentioned providing the country’s immigration system “to help American-educated en- tax incentives to manufacturers and businesses that keep jobs in the trepreneurs start and build businesses here rather than abroad.” (As United States, expanding workforce retraining programs, promoting much as it is a comment about jobs, that pledge may also be a subtle clean-energy technology and investing in new infrastructure. And acknowledgement that the GOP wants to improve its relationship with those priorities are reflected in the $255 billion in stimulus in his initial Hispanics, 71 percent of whom voted for Obama.) proposal for avoiding the fiscal cliff, which also includes extending the Even before the new Congress begins, Democrats are using their lowered payroll tax rate and long-term unemployment benefits and newfound momentum to try to make several of the president’s eco- establishing a $50 billion bank to finance public works. nomic stimulus proposals part of the year-ending budget agreement It was a winning formula this fall, not only for Obama but also for — an idea that would have been laughed off as politically tone-deaf congressional Democratic candidates across the country. Tim Kaine right up until Election Day. Although conservative Republicans might won a fiercely contested open Senate seat in Virginia, for example, after balk at first, they’re not in the driver’s seat.

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D EFENSE A Changing of the Guard Congressional panels face high turnover, major loss of experience

BY JOHN M. D ONNELLY EXIT POLL term limits. Take the House Appropriations The congressional defense committees have Whom do you trust to handle Committee. On the Republican side, former tough work ahead next year — deciding how chairman (and Defense Subcommittee chair- to maintain national security in a world of an international crisis? man) Jerry Lewis is leaving after 17 terms rep- shifting and diffuse threats and at a time of resenting a California district that is home to stagnant budgets. And they’ll be doing so with Only Only the Marine Corps’ Twentynine Palms base. He Romney Obama a group of new leaders. 36% 42% arrived on the defense scene with a bang in 1999 Retirements, more than election results, are by making an unsuccessful effort to kill the F-22 why five of the 16 most senior lawmakers on jet. But he was also a friend of the military and the two House panels most important to the a supporter of unmanned aircraft such as the Pentagon (Armed Services and Defense Appro- 4% 13% Predator — which, as he liked to remind people, Neither 5% priations) are leaving Congress in a month; half began as an appropriators’ earmark. Don’t know the Democratic seats on the House’s defense Both Also retiring (after 18 terms) is the top Dem- spending panel are coming open; and half the ocrat on both the committee and its Defense subcommittee gavels on Senate Armed Services will be changing hands. panel — Norm Dicks of Washington, a military hardware buff and a Some defense contractors and military programs will be affected huge defender of Boeing, which maintains a significant industrial pres- more than others by these departures, which sometimes mean the ence in his state even after moving its headquarters to Chicago. The two loss of a weapons system’s most important champion and other times other departing Democrats on the Defense Subcommittee are Maurice heralds the silencing of a project’s most ardent critic. The broader D. Hinchey, who’s retiring after representing parts of upstate New York impact, however, will be the disappearance of a couple of centuries that are home to a Lockheed Martin plant and the Stewart Air National worth of cumulative experience in the sometimes arcane realm of Guard base, and New Jersey’s Steven R. Rothman, a leading proponent of military budgeting. And the defense panels, like the rest of the Capitol, Israel and critic of Iran, who lost in a primary. (The new top Democrat on will have fewer moderates to help resolve conflicts between extremists. the subcommittee looks to be Peter J. Visclosky of Indiana. He’s known The result will be a Congress less equipped than before to manage the for his advocacy of the local steel industry and for energy issues — not post-double-war drawdown that’s inevitable — even if the automatic defense, at least not yet.) budget cuts known as sequestration are averted. On House Armed Services, two Republican subcommittee leaders Until the senators and House members who move up in the congres- were told to leave by the voters: Roscoe G. Bartlett, who was effectively sional defense policy pecking order prove themselves capable, there redistricted out of his Maryland seat; and Todd Akin, the unsuccessful will be an awkward period of uncertainty about what they’re about — Senate challenger in Missouri, an important Boeing advocate because shared by other lawmakers, their aides and lobbyists alike. its defense unit is based in St. Louis. Also defeated (in a primary) was Defense was not a major issue in the election, and its outcome will the No. 2 Democrat on the committee, Silvestre Reyes of Texas, a top have little effect on the Pentagon and its contractors. In fact, when Army advocate because his district included Fort Bliss. candidates (mainly Republicans) tried to make an issue of the poten- The biggest changes may be at Senate Armed Services, where four of tial across-the-board defense cuts, it almost never worked decisively the six most senior members of the majority are retiring: Jim Webb of to their advantage. In Virginia and Ohio, for example, Republican Virginia, a former Navy secretary who was a key player on overhauling presidential nominee Mitt Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul wartime contracting, increasing congressional oversight of the executive D. Ryan, R-Wis., warned repeatedly that a second term for President branch and updating the GI Bill; Joseph I. Lieberman, an independent Barack Obama would mean fewer tanks and ships being built in who belonged to the Democratic caucus and was among its most outspo- those states, and GOP Senate candidates George Allen, Virginia, and ken and strategically focused defense hawks — but also a fierce advocate Josh Mandel, Ohio, made the same arguments. Both states ended up for the General Dynamics submarines and Pratt & Whitney jet engines in the president’s column anyway, and with Democrats Tim Kaine made back home in Connecticut; Daniel K. Akaka of Hawaii, a champion and Sherrod Brown, respectively, winning the Senate contests. of veterans and civilian defense workers; and Ben Nelson of Nebraska, And so the force driving the metamorphosis in the ranks of the defense who negotiated middle-of-the-road solutions on such thorny problems power players is not democracy but time — the result of retirements and as what legal benchmarks to set for progress in the Iraq War.

2464 CQ WEEKLY | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | www.cq.com

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E NERGY Taking a Longer View Young voters, raised on a warmer planet, call for change

BY GEOF KOSS aligned with the oil and gas industries spent EXIT POLL After playing defense against the deep pock- big on swing state advertising critical of the ets of fossil fuel interests for the past two years, The youth vote administration’s energy policies. The liberal (Ages 18-29) environmentalists wasted no time in declar- Center for American Progress estimates that ing victory following the strong showing by outside groups linked to fossil fuel interests green-leaning candidates last month. “We’re all paid to run 60,000 energy and environment smiling today,” League of Conservation Voters ads in the last two months of the campaign. President Gene Karpinski declared at a news Romney Obama But environmentalists also dug deep. The conference with other major environmental 37% LCV spent almost $14 million, more than in organizations the day after the election. 60% the previous three election cycles combined — For them, there was a decent amount to with $8 million on behalf of nine candidates cheer. While occasionally at odds with the in competitive Senate races, eight of whom White House over the Keystone XL pipeline won. (The exception was Democrat Richard and other issues, Mitt Romney’s pledge to push Carmona in Arizona.) fossil fuels over renewables (and his jokes about Industry critics say the organization’s suc- global warming) ultimately led environmentalists to overlook their cess was due at least in part to flawed Republican candidates. Further- past differences with President Barack Obama. Significant spending more, they note that some candidates the group supported favored by the LCV and other groups also played a notable supporting role in policies decidedly out of step with environmentalists — including Jon the Democrats’ surprise two-seat expansion of their Senate majority. Tester of Montana’s support for the Keystone pipeline and Tim Kaine But still, as industry officials quickly pointed out, the political status of Virginia’s support of expanded drilling off his state’s coast. quo in Washington remains. The marginal Democratic gains may be Notably, however, there were no losers among the Democratic Sen- useful in the short term — including in the perennial fights over the ate incumbents who voted to retain the EPA’s authority to regulate tax breaks enjoyed by both the wind power and oil-and-gas industries greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. In that regard, maintaining — but few see an opening for major energy or climate legislation in the the political status quo serves environmentalists’ interests, in that two years of divided government that lie ahead. opponents of those greenhouse gas rules still lack the votes to change Which is why environmentalists are taking the long view. Just as the them. It also gives EPA backers a powerful talking point against the analysis of the exit polls highlighted the GOP’s potential for decades of “war on coal” rhetoric that industry has aimed at the Obama admin- trouble given the nation’s changing demographics (the surging Latino istration and its Democratic allies for the past four years. population, especially), environmentalists are warning that Republican Nonetheless, Democrat Ben Chandler lost his bid for a fifth full hostility to environmental protection will push young and indepen- House term in central Kentucky in part because GOP attorney Garland dent voters into the Democratic fold for years to come. The Environ- “Andy” Barr IV succeeded in casting the congressman as an enemy of mental Defense Action Fund made that point recently by pointing to the coal industry that is the state’s economic lifeblood. federal data that labeled October as the 332nd consecutive month of While climate change legislation isn’t coming back anytime soon, above-average temperature — which, the group says, “means no one 27 environmentalists and clean-energy advocates say the success of their or younger has ever experienced a colder than average month.” congressional allies bodes well for the continuation of renewable The exact correlation between warming global temperatures and tax breaks. An early test of that assumption could come this month, the American electorate is debatable, but exit polling shows Obama when year-end fiscal cliff talks may decide what happens to the about- won three-fifths of voters younger than 30. The lesson has not gone to-expire production tax credit for wind energy. (Environmentalists unheeded in GOP circles. “We need to show a level of environmental also spent heavily to highlight opposition to the credit by Romney responsibility that is in conjunction with where young people are com- and some GOP congressional candidates.) Denise Bode, the head of ing from,” says Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, the top Republican on the the American Wind Energy Association, said the success of pro-wind Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. candidates from both parties validates public support for renewable With both the White House and the Senate looking to be within fuels — starting at the top of the ticket. “Clearly, that viewpoint made the GOP’s reach until the closing hours of the campaign, groups a difference,” she said.

www.cq.com | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | CQ WEEKLY OUTLOOK

H EALTH Shaping the Law of the Land Lawmakers receive mixed messages about what voters want

BY REBECCA ADAMS EXIT POLL vote was not as strong or intense as the law’s The election results have transformed an all- What should happen to the critics had warned. (Mitt Romney did 4 points out war over health care policy into hand-to- better than the president among the three- hand combat that will play out as states decide 2010 health care law? fifths of the electorate that chose the economy in the coming year whether to put into place as the No. 1 issue.) the law exactly as President Barack Obama Repeal Expand it Democrats note that many candidates who would like. all of it defended the law this fall — including five who A statute that has been plagued from the 25% 26% voted for the measure as House members in outset by ambiguity — with questions about 2010 and were defeated later that year, at least whether it would clear Congress or survive 18% in part because of those votes — will sit in court challenges or be fatally injured by the Repeal 24% Leave it the 113th Congress in January. Three of the election of a Republican president and more some of it 7% as it is returning lawmakers won highly competitive GOP lawmakers — finally won the certain- races where their health care votes were central Don’t know ty that it will be implemented. Even House to their opponents’ messaging: Dan Maffei Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, who had lead the “repeal and re- in New York, Bill Foster in Illinois and Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona. place” chorus of Republicans all year, declared right after the election The others won easily in reconfigured districts designed to produce that “ ‘Obamacare’ is the law of the land.” Democratic wins: Dina Titus in Nevada and Alan Grayson in Florida, But that supposed final word on Nov. 6 came with an asterisk. who famously lambasted the GOP in his earlier term as having a pa- Thirty Republican governors, including 24 who will have the benefit tient protection plan that amounted to no more than “die quickly.” of GOP-controlled statehouses, are in charge of deciding whether or Beyond that, two of the closest races in the country were won by a pair not to go forward with the expansion of Medicaid, a major plank of of Democratic physicians in California, Ami Bera and Raul Ruiz, who the law that is supposed to provide coverage for half of the people who championed the health care law and lambasted the “no” votes of their would gain benefits under the overhaul. And the election also revealed incumbent GOP opponents, Dan Lungren and Mary Bono Mack. a nation as divided about the law’s virtues now as when the legislative Both parties and their outside-group allies spent enormous amounts debate was in its heyday three years ago: Forty-four percent of partici- advertising on the health care issue. The National Republican Cam- pants in the Election Day national exit poll favored expanding the law paign Committee estimates it ran ads in 48 districts blasting Demo- or leaving it as is; 49 percent favored repealing parts or all of it. crats for supporting the 2010 health care law, and also in 51 races Although the ability of Congress to derail the law is essentially claiming the incumbent had voted to cut Medicare to finance the nonexistent while Democrats control the White House and the Senate, overhaul. The NRCC said it found 72 races where a Democrat accused some hard-line GOP critics will continue to look for ways to under- a Republican of seeking to end Medicare, and seven races with ads mine it. Congressional critics are already discouraging state officials alleging the Republican had voted to give himself “health care for life.” back home from broadening coverage under Medicaid, the federal- Republicans said the Democratic victories reflected mostly local state program for the poor. circumstances — and point with pride to the upstate New York victory Both backers of the law and its opponents can find electoral evidence of former Erie County executive Chris Collins over Democrat Kathy that the public supports their view of the law. And each side values the Hochul, who won her seat in a 2011 special election that turned mainly opinion of its supporters more than those of the general public. “It’s on her ridicule of the GOP plan for remaking Medicare as a voucher- not important what the average person thinks,” said Robert Blendon, like system. Republicans also note that the health care law remains so senior associate dean at the Harvard School of Public Health. “What’s controversial that only 18 percent in the exit polls said they would be important is what the average person who voted for you thinks.” happy to leave it “as is.” To be sure, health care was not the top issue influencing voters, And while Congress is likely to leave it as is in the short term, law- according to the exit polls and surveys before the voting. The economy makers across the ideological spectrum would eventually like to go clearly dominated the election. But among the 18 percent on Election back and change parts of the measure. They just don’t agree on what Day who did rank health care as their top issue, Obama was the choice to do. But that is a battle for the future. Most of the law’s big provisions of 75 percent — a finding strongly suggesting that the anti-Obamacare take effect in 2014, which just happens to be another election year.

CQ WEEKLY | DECEMBER 10, 2012 | www.cq.com