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E-Mobility: a Green Boost for European Automotive Jobs?

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E-Mobility: a Green Boost for European Automotive Jobs? E-mobility: A green boost for European automotive jobs? Results presentation JUNE 2021 Study based on long journey around the topic Shifting Gears in Auto Manufacturing Link BCG Report Study on Studies for Germany, Additional country "Shifting Gears" European level Spain and Poland studies and scenarios September 2020 Start December 2020 Start April 2021 July 2021 BCG report about the shift Study of the Automotive Dedicated country level Additional country level in Automotive job development in Europe studies in collaboration studies for other important manufacturing in collaboration with ECF with local organizations markets in consideration Detailed analysis of the Analysis of all major trends Studies considering the Idea for additional scenario necessary labor units that are driving the Auto highly different situation analysis based on behavior between ICEs and BEVs industry over next 10 years across EU countries in EU vs. China and USA 1 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Study based on three important pillars Interviews with Job distribution across Trends along industry various Auto experts functions & industries sectors and functions 1 Industry sectors and job families primarily affected Job categories 2 Major trends influencing job development in Auto industry 2 Major trends influencing job development in Auto industry 5 job categories based on 31 affected job families Spain & Poland preliminary 1 Industry sectors and job families primarily affected >45 expert interviews conducted to validate findings Industry cluster Eight major trends are driving job changes Total number of jobs with industry split Major trends Quantification 8 industryin Europe [Numbersclusters in M] based on 26 industries in scope ​0.7 Platform members Industry experts BCG experts ​31 affected job families clustered in 5 categories along the value chain … ​Retirement -2.1% -2.4% -2.4% -2.3% Retirement factor (p.a.) ​0.2 ​26 affected sectors grouped in 8 overarching industry clusters … ​3.9 ​… whereof, 0.7M (13%) jobs are associated with engineering, which Total number of jobs with industry split ​Fluctuation includes 9 company functions like Power units/electronics researcher Fluctuation -1.9% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% [Numbers in M] ​… whereof, 0.47M (28%) jobs are associated with OEMs, factor (p.a.) Overarching which includes companies like VW or Daimler automotive Core ​0.47 ​… whereof, 0.2M (4%) jobs are associated with procurement, which Market Production Sales vol. Car parc ​… whereof, includes(15%) 5 jobscompany are associated functions likewith Production ICE-focused material suppliers procurer, -0.4% 0.9% 0.1% -1.8% -0.7% -1.5% -0.3% 0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.25M volume volume (p.a.) (p.a.) (p.a.) ​5.6 which includes companies like Umicore Automotive Catalysts ​… whereof, 3.9M (69%) jobs are associated with production & service ops., Technology Demand for ​0.25 ​… whereof, 0.52Mwhich (31%) includes jobs are5 company associated functions with Non like- ICEProduction suppliers material, procurer 11% 11% 11% 11% software eng. evolution (p.a.) which includes companies like Continental 0.52 ​… whereof, 0.3M (6%) jobs are associated with sales, which includes 5 Car ​ Content ​0.3 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0% 0% 0% 0% portfolio ​… whereof, 0.21Mcompany (12%) functions jobs are associatedlike sales analyst with Maintenance & repair, Product mix per car (p.a.) ​0.4 (p.a.) ​1.69 ​which includes companies like ATU ​… whereof, 0.4M (8%) jobs are associated with other functions, e.g., ​Productivity 0.8% 1.6% 2.3% 1.0% ​… whereof, 0.21MHuman (12%) Resources jobs are associated with Equipment & Services, Productivity (p.a.) Adjacent industriesAdjacent which includes equipment and machinery companies like SEW Industry Industry specific ​BEV vehicle ​High value-add ​0.21Engineer- Procu- Prod./Ser- Sales Other ​… whereof, 0.01M (0%) jobs are associated with Energy production, Shift to EV 32% 34% 77% 33% production 100% 100% 100% 100% ​in battery ing rement vice Ops. (p.a.) production ​0.21 ​0.01 ​0.00 ​0.01 which includes energy producers like EON or RWE Job ​Offshoring Source: EuroStat; BCG 14 Copyright ©by 2021 BostonConsulting Group. rightsAll reserved. ​… whereof, 0.00M (0%) jobs are associated with Energy infrastructure, 0% -0.8% -1.4% -1.5% of jobs ​10 interviews conducted >15 interviews conducted ​>20 interviews conducted offshoring ​(p.a.) which includes companies like EVBox or Chargepoint OEMs ICE- Non Maint./ Equip. Energy Energy Recy- Positive impact on job demand Negative impact on job demand No impact on job demand Copyright ©by 2021 BostonConsulting Group. rightsAll reserved. Source: BCG 5 2019 as baseline year, Source: IHS Markit; BCG 15 Copyright ©by 2021 BostonConsulting Group. Allrights reserved. focused -ICE Repair & Serv. prod. infr. cling ​… whereof, 0.01M (1%) jobs are associated with Recycling, supp. supp. which includes battery recycling companies like Umicore Source: EuroStat; BCG 8 Copyright ©by 2021 BostonConsulting Group. Allrights reserved. Over 45 interviews with Job distribution across 26 Trends and industry- platform members, industry sectors and 31 job specific drivers for the industry and BCG experts families next ten years Source: BCG 2 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Job development in … presented along five Europe1 from '20 – '30 … building blocks 5.7M Industry sectors and job families primarily affected 1 Major trends influencing job development in Auto industry 2 Net impact of job development until 2030 3 Shifts & replacements in industry sectors and job families 4 Recommendations for companies and governments 5 X.XM Employees in scope (Basis 2020) 1. EU27 + UK + Norway Source: BCG 3 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Agenda Industry sectors and job families primarily affected 1 Major trends influencing job development in Auto industry 2 Net impact of job development until 2030 3 Transition over time, across industries, job families, regions 4 Recommendations for companies and governments 5 4 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 1 Industry sectors and job families primarily affected 5.65M employees across 8 industries and 5 functions 2 Total number of jobs in Job category Europe 2020 [in K] Production/ Engineering Procurement Sales Other Total Industry cluster1 Service Ops. 2020 OEMs 119 33 759 65 108 1,084 19% ICE-focused 666 12% suppliers 123 28 427 28 59 Non-ICE 2,286 40% suppliers 380 80 1,554 92 180 Core automotive automotive Core Maintenance 10 51 835 71 51 1,019 18% & Repair Equipment 97 22 238 47 35 439 8% & Services Energy 7 1 34 1 5 49 1% production Energy 2 1 16 1 2 22 0% infrastructure Material Adjacent industries Adjacent 9 9 54 9 9 90 2% recycling 748 13% 225 4% 3,917 69% 316 6% 449 8% 5,654 1. Based on 26 industries 2. Based on 31 jobs families Source: EuroStat; BCG 5 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 1 Industry sectors and job families primarily affected Industry cluster 8 industry clusters based on 26 industries in scope 26 affected sectors grouped in 8 overarching industry clusters … Total number of jobs with industry split [Numbers in M] … whereof, 1.08M (19%) jobs are associated with OEMs, which includes companies like Renault-Nissan and Tesla automotive Core 1.08 … whereof, 0.67M (12%) jobs are associated with ICE-focused suppliers, 0.67 which includes companies like Umicore Automotive Catalysts 2.29 … whereof, 2.29M (40%) jobs are associated with Non-ICE suppliers, which includes companies like Continental … whereof, 1.02M (18%) jobs are associated with Maintenance & repair, 5.65 which includes companies like Mobivia Groupe … whereof, 0.44M (8%) jobs are associated with Equipment & Services, 1.02 industries Adjacent which includes equipment and machinery companies like SEW 0.44 … whereof, 0.05M (1%) jobs are associated with Energy production, 0.05 0.02 0.09 which includes energy producers like EON or RWE … whereof, 0.02M (0%) jobs are associated with Energy infrastructure, which includes companies like EVBox and Chargepoint OEMs ICE- Non Maint./ Equip. Energy Energy Recy- focused -ICE Repair & Serv. prod. infr. cling … whereof, 0.09M (2%) jobs are associated with Recycling, supp. supp. which includes battery recycling companies like Umicore Source: EuroStat; BCG 6 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 1 Industry sectors and job families primarily affected Industry cluster Largest automotive OEMs account for ~1.1M jobs in Europe Total employees of automotive OEMs in Europe OEM European employees ‘000 Factories (2021) Volkswagen 417 26 Stellantis 172 11 Daimler 130 24 Renault-Nissan 103 13 BMW 88 6 Ford 45 4 Volvo 41 4 JLR 40 4 Toyota 25 3 Hyundai 15 2 Legend: Other 9 13 Light vehicle factories Total ~1,084 110 Source: IHS Markit 2021; OEM website and annual reports; Press search; ACEA; BCG 7 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 1 Industry sectors and job families primarily affected Backup Industry cluster 26 affected industries defined for detailed analysis along 8 industry clusters Core automotive Adjacent industries OEMs Non-ICE Equipment Energy suppliers & Services infrastructure Manufacture of motor vehicles Manufacture of bodies Equipment & Machinery Fuel infr. (Manuf. & Service) ICE-focused Manuf. of electrical & electronic equip. Industrial Service provider Fuel infr. (Instal. & Ops.) suppliers Manuf. rubber tires and tubes Charging infr. (Manuf. & Service) Manuf. bearings, gears & driving elements Manuf. computers & equipment Charging infr. (Instal. & Ops.) Manuf. cooling & ventilation equipm. Manuf. e-motors & generators Manuf. pumps & compressors Manuf. electric lighting equipm. Energy Material Manuf. of batteries & accumulators production recycling Manuf. of refined petroleum products Recovery of sorted materials Shaping & processing flat glass Manuf. of other parts & accessories Production of electricity Transmission of electricity Maintenance Distribution of electricity & Repair Trade of electricity Maintenance & Repair of vehicles Extensive change in industry expected Source: EuroStat; BCG 8 Copyright © by 2021 Boston Consulting Group.
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