THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT From Conflict Resolution to Conflict Management Edited by Tov־Yaacov Bar-Siman Produced in cooperation with The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies HE VIOLENT CONFRONTATION THAT erupted in September 2000 Tbetween Israel and the Palestinians developed into a pro• tracted low-intensity confrontation. The confrontation exacted a heavy human toll on both sides, inflicted severe economic damage, and raised the level of enmity, hostility, and mistrust to levels that hamper dialogue not only in regard to the resolution of the conflict but also in its management. The book focuses on the causes of the confrontation, the goals of the sides, and the distinctive characteristics of the confrontation as a low-intensity conflict. Management strategies, the failure of the efforts to end or moderate the confrontation, the outcomes and its impact on both soci• eties in different domains, and the phenomenon of unilateral disengage• ment as a unique strategy of conflict management in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are also discussions raised within the text. THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT: FROM CONFLICT RESOLUTION TO CONFLICT MANAGEMENT Edited by Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov Produced in coopération with The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies macmillan This book was made possible by funds granted by the Charles H. Revson Foundation. The statements made and views expressed, however, are solely the responsibility of the authors. THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT © Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, 2007. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2007 by PALCRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RC21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin's Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN-13:978-1-4039-7732-8 ISBN-10:1-4039-7732-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: from conflict resolution to conflict management / edited by Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-4039-7732-1 (alk. paper) 1. Arab-Israeli conflict—1993—Peace. 2. Conflict management— Israel. I. Bar-Siman-Tov, Yaacov, 1946- DS119.76I8217 2007 956.94054—dc22 2006050319 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: February 2007 10 987654321 Printed in the United States of America. CONTENTS List of Tables ix List of Figures xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Authors XV Introduction 1 Taacov Bar-Siman-Tov 1 Dialectic between Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution 9 Taacov Bar-Siman-Tov 2 The Influences of Heuristic Thought and Group Dynamics on the Management of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict 41 Dan Zakay 3 The Israeli-Palestinian Violent Confrontation: An Israeli Perspective 69 Taacov Bar-Siman-Tov, Ephraim Lavie, Kobi Michael, and Daniel Bar-Tal 4 The Interaction between the Military Echelon and the Political Echelon in the Management of the Israeli-Palestinian Confrontation 101 Kobi Michael 5 Changes in Israel's Official Security Policy and in the Attitudes of the Israeli-Jewish Public toward the Management of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (2000-2004) 133 Tamar Hermann viii CONTENTS 6 A Psychological Earthquake in the Israeli-Jewish Society: Changing Opinions Following the Camp David Summit and the Al-Aqsa Intifada 169 Daniel Bar-Tal and Keren Sharvit 7 Ethos of Conflict in the Israeli Media during the Period of the Violent Confrontation 203 Keren Sharvit and Daniel Bar-Tal 8 The Palestinian Society in the Wake of the Violent Confrontation and Arafat's Death 233 Ephraim Lavie 9 The Israeli Disengagement Plan as a Conflict Management Strategy 261 Taacov Bar-Siman-Tov and Kobi Michael Index 283 LIST OF TABLES 5.1 Attitudes toward Negotiations with the Palestinians According to Selected Sociodemographic and Sociopolitical Traits 146 5.2 Today, Looking Back, Do You Think Israel's Governments Did the Right Thing by Permitting and Encouraging the Establishment of the Settlements in the Territories (%)? 149 5.3 Is the Government Investing in the Settlements and the Development of the Territories in Judea and Samaria (%) 149 5.4 What, in Your Opinion, Should Israel's Policy Be in Regard to the Future of the Jewish Settlements in Judea and Samaria within the Framework of a Permanent Peace Agreement with the Palestinians (%)? 150 5.5 How Far, in Your Evaluation, Does/Did Arafat Control the Palestinian Street in Regard to the Violent Actions against Israel (%)? 156 LIST OF FIGURES 4.1 Overview of the Proposed Theoretical Model 105 4.2 Dimensions of the Discourse Space 125 5.1 Oslo Index, 1994-2004: Changes in Public Attitudes Towards the Oslo Peace Process 143 5.2 Support for Conducting Negotiations with the Palestinians Compared with Support for the Oslo Process 145 5.3 Attitudes toward the Solution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict According to the Formula of "Two States for Two Peoples" 148 5.4 Israeli Opinions of Violence as a Characteristic of the Palestinian Collectivity 152 5.5 In Your Opinion, to What Degree is Arafat a Terrorist or a Statesman? 154 5.6 Do You Support the Targeted Killings or Are You against Them? 157 5.7 Attitudes toward the Separation Fence 159 5.8 Attitudes toward the Unilateral Disengagement Plan 160 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study is the product of a joint effort by a "work group" that convened at the Jerusalem Insdtute for Israel Studies between November 2003 and December 2004.1 want to take this opportunity to thank all the members of the team, each separately and as a group, for the devotion, diligence, and insight they brought to the project, out of belief in its importance and in the hope that it will contribute to the public discourse. The members of the group are: Prof. Daniel Bar-Tal, Dr. Yossi Ben-Ari, Ephraim Halevy, Prof. Tamar Hermann, Prof. Ruth Lapidoth, Ephraim Lavie, Reuven Merhav, Dr. Kobi Michael, Dr. Yitzhak Reiter, Prof. Ezra Sadan, Prof. Dan Zakay and Dr. Yifrah Zilberman. Thanks also to Keren Sharvit for contributing as co-author two chapters to the book. Special thanks to Ralph Mandel for translating and editing the manuscript, and to Esti Boehm for its preparation. I would also like to thank the staff of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies: Ora Achimeir, the Institute's Director, Hamutal Appel, and Ilanit Segen, without whose dedicated support it would not have been possible to move the project forward and bring it to fruition. Prof. Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov Head, Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies ABOUT THE AUTHORS YAACOV BAR-SIMAN-TOV—Professor of International Relations. Holder of the Chair for the Study of Peace and Regional Cooperation at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He also serves as head of the Swiss Center for Conflict Research, Management and Resolution, at the Hebrew University, and of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies. He has written and edited 10 books and numerous articles on topics related to conflict management and resolution, mainly in the context of the Israeli-Arab conflict. DANIEL BAR-TAL—Professor of Social and Political Psychology at Tel Aviv University's School of Education and Director of the University's Walter Lebach Research Institute for Jewish-Arab Coexistence through Education. He completed his doctoral studies in social psychology at the University of Pittsburgh in 1974. During 2000-2001 he served as president of the International Society of Political Psychology. His research interests include shared societal beliefs, such as those related to ethos of conflict and to security, dele- gitimization, mentality, siege, and patriotism. He also studies the psychological foundations of intractable conflict. Prof. Bar-Tal has written and edited 15 books and has published over one hundred articles and book chapters. TAMAR HERMANN—Head of the Democracy Studies program at the Open University and director of the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University. Her areas of expertise are: extra- parliamentary politics, peace movements, public opinion, and the shaping of foreign policy. EPHRAIM LAVIE—Expert on Middle Eastern affairs, researcher at Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center. Served in the Research Unit of the IDF Intelligence Branch as head of the Palestinian Section, and was involved in all stages of the permanent agreement negotiations and the crisis that subsequently emerged. During the first Intifada and throughout the 1990s he served as a consultant on Arab affairs for the xvi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Civil Administration of the Territories. In addition, he possesses expertise on issues related to Egypt, Jordan, and radical Islam. He is a graduate of Tel Aviv University's Department of Middle Eastern Studies, Arabic Language and Literature, and is a cum laude graduate of the National Security College. He holds a master's degree in Polidcal Science from the University of Haifa and is currentiy a doc• toral student in Tel Aviv University's History Department. KOBI MICHAEL—Completed his doctorate at the Swiss Center for Conflict Research,