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The New Geopolitics of Converging Risks the Un and Prevention in the Era of Ai

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The New Geopolitics of Converging Risks the Un and Prevention in the Era of Ai THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF CONVERGING RISKS THE UN AND PREVENTION IN THE ERA OF AI Eleonore Pauwels Research Fellow on Emerging Cybertechnologies United Nations University Centre for Policy Research THE AUTHOR Eleonore Pauwels is Research Fellow on Emerging Cybertechnologies at United Nations University Centre for Policy Research, focusing on Artificial Intelligence. Prior to joining the Centre, Ms Pauwels was Director of the Anticipatory Intelligence Lab with the Science and Technology Innovation Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. A former official of the European Commission’s Directorate on Science, Economy and Society, Ms Pauwels is an international science policy expert, specializing in the governance and democratization of converging technologies. Her research analyzes and compares how emerging technologies, such as AI, genome- editing, cyber and biotechnologies, raise new opportunities and challenges for health, security, economics and governance in different geo-political contexts. She examines the promises and perils that will likely arise with the development of AI civil and military technologies, the Internet of Bodies and Genomes, and the convergence of cyber and bio-security. Acknowledgements The author wishes to express her appreciation and gratitude to mentors and colleagues at UNU for their intelligent insights and sharp-witted, enlightened guidance, notably Dr James Cockayne, Adam Day, Anthony Dursi, Cale Salih, Alexandra Cerquone, Jessica Caus and Dr Kelly Gleason. The author also owes a debt of gratitude to UNU’s Rector, Dr David Malone, for his trust and encouraging support. Warm thanks go to experts in converging technologies, dear Sarah Denton, Dave Rejeski and Garrett Dunlap. Finally, conversations with bright visionary minds at EOSG, DPPA, UN Global Pulse, UNODA, UNIDIR and UNCTED have made this journey even more captivating. ISBN 978-92-808-6504-2 ©United Nations University, 2019. All content (text, visualizations, graphics), except where otherwise specified or attributed, is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike IGO license (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0). Using, re-posting and citing this content is allowed without prior permission. Citation: Eleonore Pauwels, “The New Geopolitics of Converging Risks: The UN and Prevention in the Era of AI”, United Nations University Centre for Policy Research, 29 April 2019. CONTENTS Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... i Section I: Introduction .................................................................................................................................1 Section II: The Paradigm Of AI Convergence .............................................................................................5 Section III: Scenarios Of AI Convergence ................................................................................................13 The Deception Machine: Degradation Of Truth And Trust ..............................................................13 The Internet Of Bodies, Genomes, And Minds ...............................................................................17 Inside Smart But Vulnerable Cities, Factories, And Laboratories ����������������������������������������������������24 AI For Prevention – A Positive Scenario On AI Convergence .........................................................27 Section IV: Key Scenario Takeaways For Global Security ........................................................................33 Section V: Responsible Governance In The Era Of AI Convergence ........................................................39 Section VI: Prevention In The Era Of AI Convergence ..............................................................................47 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................57 Annex 1: Mechanisms Within The Global Foresight Observatory ............................................................59 Annex 2: Methodology For Scenarios Of AI Convergence .......................................................................61 References ................................................................................................................................................63 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We are entering an era of hybrid opportunities and threats around weaponized technologies; (iv) the erosion of generated by the combination of artificial intelligence proportionality in the context of geopolitical conflicts; (v) (AI) and other powerful dual-use technologies, with the rise of new forms of major power competition that implications for nearly every aspect of daily lives. The are accelerating inequalities; and (vi) a shift away from convergence of AI and affective computing, cyber and traditional, military forms of conflict, towards the use of biotechnologies, robotics and additive manufacturing bio-power and attacks on social cohesion. Taken together raises complex global implications that are poorly these shifts present a complex, often chaotic, landscape understood, leaving the multilateral system with limited for the UN’s prevention agenda and one where rigorously tools to anticipate and prevent emerging risks. At the applied tools of foresight can offer meaningful strategic same time, the spread of AI convergence across a wide insights and potential ways forward. range of States, non-State and transnational actors and entities means that the challenges of tomorrow must be Section III builds on a set of in-depth scenarios involving addressed collectively and innovatively. AI convergence and complex socio-technical systems. These scenarios do not predict the future but rather offer How can the multilateral system better understand an evidence-based framework for understanding the and anticipate risks as AI convergence with dual-use ways in which technologies can converge, building on technologies intrudes increasingly into the political, social, the trends identified in previous sections. economic, and security spheres, creating new potential for systemic vulnerabilities and distributive inequalities? • The first scenario – The Deception Machine – How can actors within the multilateral system build better describes how AI and converging technologies anticipation and prevention capacities in the face of these could manipulate and simulate information, risks? amplifying hybrid cyberthreats, political and social engineering, to the point of turning manifestations This report is the first step in developing a common of distrust into a global epidemic. Here, the lines understanding of the emerging impacts of AI between reality and deception become blurred, convergence on the United Nations’ (UN’s) prevention and the potential for large-scale mobilization of agenda. It provides: (i) an analysis of current trends in people, resources and weapons around false AI convergence; (ii) scenarios that examine emerging narratives creates significant global risks. opportunities and risks; (iii) principles to guide how innovation should be deployed responsibly by actors in • The second scenario – The Internet of Bodies, the multilateral system; and (iv) a recommendation for Genomes and Minds – explores how bio-power a foresight capacity housed within the UN and shared is drastically magnified under AI convergence, across key communities. driving far more intrusive and coercive forms of surveillance and use of personal data, and Section I introduces the main themes of the report, the eventual “cyber colonization” of States in providing an overview of AI convergence and its the Global South. Far beyond today’s privacy implications for the UN’s prevention agenda. It traces concerns, AI convergence will soon allow for the major trends in AI convergence, flagging the huge control and manipulation of bio-data that could potential for human wellbeing alongside the existential open the door for weaponization and substantial risks of large-scale crises that are already emerging. risks to large populations. The resulting loss of trust within and among States, and between public and private sectors, creates a risk that • The third scenario – Smart, Vulnerable the multilateral system’s response may be driven by Cities – illustrates how new forms of virtual, competition and isolation rather than cooperation. Here, physical and urban attacks, crime and violence the UN has a potential role in providing a bridge between could drastically increase human and civilian stakeholders and a common vision for preventing major insecurity. At the same time, urbanization and AI crises, but continues to be limited by its inflexible, State- convergence create drastic shifts in the future of centric ways of working. work, where urbanized populations face new and rapidly changing socio-economic risks. Section II offers a paradigm of AI convergence and explains why this paradigm represents a time of • The final scenario –AI for Prevention – focuses technological rupture with implications for large-scale on the empowering potential of AI convergence crisis prevention. Within this, it traces six fundamental to address many of the crisis risks in the prior shifts: (i) the impact of the combinatorial nature of scenarios, offering a vision of innovative, technologies today; (ii) technological decentralization large-scale prevention and the opportunity for and democratization;
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